The Footballguys Injury Index contains injury timelines and fantasy performance outcomes for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends from 2017 to 2023. The database contains over 2,000 injuries. However, to avoid any confusion, it is important to lay some ground rules. I am not saying that this is exactly what will happen. I do not have a crystal ball, nor should this report be used as one. Like most things in life, context is important. Every injury is unique.
Enjoy.
Sections of the Footballguys Injury Index
Chance to Play, Questionable vs. Doubtful
Chance to Play, Practice Participation
Games Played and Positional Volatility
Fantasy Performance and Re-Injury Rate by Position
Positional Volatility
You have likely heard that running backs are more susceptible to injury and that wide receivers are safer picks. It’s one of the foundational pieces of the "Zero RB Strategy." It would appear there is some truth to that theory.
These graphs show the range of outcomes for QB, RB, WR, and TE to play a full-season game merely based on historical comps for fantasy-relevant players, not considering ADP or injury history.
Here are the probabilities for players at each position to play at least 12 games or a full 17-game season.
| Position | 12 Games | 17 Games |
|---|---|---|
| QB Odds to Play | 95% | 35% |
| RB Odds to Play | 74% | 11% |
| WR Odds to Play | 86% | 20% |
| TE Odds to Play | 55% | 8% |
Player Specific Statistics
Here's a look at some specific players and examine which were better at playing through injury and some who missed more than expected.
(Qualifying players include those who showed up on injury reports at least three times).
Players who miss less time than expected (more likely to play through injury)
- (QB) Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville - 1st amongst QBs
- (WR) Puka Nacua, LA Rams - 1st amongst WRs, 2nd among all players
- (QB) Josh Allen, Buffalo - 3rd amongst QBs
- (WR) Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit - 4th amongst WRs
- (RB) Ken Walker III, Seattle - 3rd amongst active RBs (5th all-time among RBs)
- (TE) Mark Andrews, Baltimore - 4th amongst active TEs, 85th percentile among all active players despite being on the injury report a lot. When
Players who miss more time than expected (less likely to play through injury)
- (WR) Michael Thomas, Free Agent - worst of all players I've examined (no surprise)
- (QB) Sam Darnold, Minnesota - 2nd worst of all QBs (7th percentile). It's possible we'll see Nick Mullins in 2024
- (RB) Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco - injuries have piled up lately. McCaffrey ranks in the bottom 15th percentile for RBs in terms of games missed vs. expected.
- (WR) Christian Kirk, Jacksonville - Kirk's numbers aren't terrible as he ranks in the 45th% all time for WRs, but he is near the bottom among current wideouts.
And here's a look at some players who perform well or poorly when playing through an injury.
Players who performed well after injury (exceeded expected fantasy points)
- (RB) Derrick Henry, Baltimore - Ranked in the 95th percentile amongst all fantasy players
- (RB) Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco - Although he has missed a lot of games, when he plays, he plays well following the injury. He also ranked in the 95th percentile.
- (WR) Zay Flowers, Baltimore - This is a small sample, but his raw fantasy numbers were very good following injury. Currently, no active WRs have scored better.
- (WR) DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee - Compared to expected fantasy points, few WRs have scored better. Hopkins ranks 3rd amongst all WRs.
Players who struggle after injury (underperformed vs. expected fantasy points)
- (RB) Rhamondre Stevenson, New England - On average, Stevenson's production drops by over 50% when he returns from injury. Compared to expected points based on injury, Stevenson currently ranks in the bottom 5%.
- (WR) Christian Watson, Green Bay - No surprise due to hamstring injuries. Few active WRs scored lower than Watson compared to expected fantasy points.
- (QB) Deshaun Watson, Cleveland - Ranks in the 5th percentile amongst all fantasy players.
- (TE) Evan Engram, Jacksonville - Only Juwan Johnson ranked worse in fantasy production vs. expected.
