Contract Terms
The Jacksonville Jaguars are signing wide receiver Gabe Davis to a three-year, $39 million contract that includes $11 million at signing, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Monday.
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Fantasy Football Impact
Davis, who turns 25 on April 1, had his best season in 2022, with 836 receiving yards on 48 receptions (93 targets) and an average of 17.4 yards per catch.
His biggest statistical game came in the 2021 postseason against the Kansas City Chiefs when he caught eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns.
NFL.com's Kevin pointed out Davis gives Trevor Lawrence a field-stretching weapon. According to Next Gen Stats, Davis has 17 deep receiving TDs since 2020, tied for the third-most in the NFL, including playoffs, behind only Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans. Patra added that Davis has generated 16.7 yards per reception in his career, which is tops in the NFL since he entered the league in 2020 (min. 150 rec).
Davis generated a first down or touchdown on 76.7 percent of his catches, the most in the league since 2020.
Fantasy managers are well aware of Davis' big-play ability. The problem, however, has been inconsistency, as demonstrated last season when he posted three games with 100-plus receiving yards but had five games with zero catches.
As Patra suggested, "The Jaguars hope that was simply a byproduct of the Bills offense."
In Jacksonville, it now seems safe to assume the Jaguars will not be working to retain unrestricted free agent Calvin Ridley. Davis will have ample opportunity to show he can handle a more robust workload if that's the case. While Ridley's 136 targets last year came with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones missing significant time due to injuries, expecting Davis to surpass his career-high 93 targets (set in 2022) isn't a massive reach.
At the very least, Davis' initial WR54 spot on the initial 2024 Footballguys Draft Rankings will rise. Even if he doesn't make it as high as Ridley's current WR39 status, drafting Davis as a WR4 could lead to an excellent return on investment.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
Patra wrote, "Davis' skillset is a solid complement to Kirk and Jones, giving Lawrence a diverse crew who can win at all levels."
It's a fair point.
Based on his history, Davis won't necessarily be a limiting factor for Kirk, who is in the right spot as WR33 on our current rankings, nor will he likely elevate Lawrence's value noticeably (and at QB17, the price is favorable). Jones sits at WR80, a number he could improve on with good health this season, but his price won't change based on this move.
This addition is unlikely to change Evan Engram's TE5 ranking. Still, it's hard to envision the tight end matching the 114 targets directed his way last season if everybody remains healthy this year.
As for Travis Etienne Jr., the 6-2 225-pound Davis is a capable and willing downfield blocker in the run game.
As noted above, agreeing to terms with Davis spells the end of Ridley's run with the team after one year. As the top prospect at his position on the market, it's likely his price is rising. That might be one reason the Jaguars moved on.
Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid could benefit from the open targets created by Davis' departure in Buffalo. But this move also likely signals the Bills will be looking for a new WR2 to complement Stefon Diggs this coming season.
Stock Watch
Risers
Fallers
Overview
The Jacksonville Jaguars added deep-threat Gabe Davis to Doug Pederson's offense in free agency. His arrival ensures Calvin Ridley will be moving on in free agency, while Davis will team up with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram to give Trevor Lawrence a range of weapons capable of challenging defenses at every level of the field.