A Tapestry of Razors, The Psychology of Fantasy Football

Razors can help one to navigate fantasy football's mental labyrinth.

Leo Paciga's A Tapestry of Razors, The Psychology of Fantasy Football Leo Paciga Published 05/15/2024

 

My favorite part of fantasy football is the psychological component, the mental approach, and how that synergy impacts strategies and relationships in this hobby.

As soon as we open our laptops, we have immediate access to a bustling marketplace of ideas, data, blueprints, approaches, and social media interactions where "razors" can be the mental tools that help us carve through the dense fantasy football underbrush. They often stand as guiding principles, offering rules of thumb to streamline decision-making and problem-solving processes. These razors, while not infallible laws, can serve as invaluable tools, leading us toward more probable explanations and efficient solutions. Below, we explore eight of the more important philosophical razors as they relate to fantasy football:

The Feynman Razor

Simplify, simplify, simplify. Complexity and jargon can be used to mask a lack of deep understanding. Look for the folks in the fantasy football community who can simplify explanations, strategies, and processes to the point where even a 5-year-old can grasp them.

Sagan Standard

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." If someone claims that they, or their model/process, can accurately identify vulnerabilities or predict precise outputs consistently at an extremely high success rate – look for definitive proof. It's good practice to validate your skepticism by digging into the results.

The Rooms Razor

If you have a choice between entering multiple rooms – or, in this case, multiple sites, message boards, Discord channels, Reddit communities, etc. choose the ones where you're not the smartest person in the room. Once you're there, talk less and listen more. It may not feel great for your ego, but it'll be tremendous for your growth. And you'll be a better fantasy football player for it.

Hitchens' Razor

Anything asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. If something can't be settled by reasonable experiment or by observation, it's simply not worth dragging out the debate. Speculation is a key ingredient baked into almost every fantasy football conversation. It's good to remember that while fun to engage in, it can be beneficial to save your energy and instead focus your attention on a discussion with more proven data.

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 Echo Chambers

If you encounter folks with opinions different from your own, listen twice as much as you speak. Our initial reaction when we hear a differing perspective is to focus on refuting it. Remind yourself to stop and listen. You'll learn more that way. There are plenty of successful approaches to fantasy football - a different perspective may be the edge you need.

Hanlon's Razor

Malice isn't always the underlying theme. This is a valuable lens, especially for social media exchanges AND interactions with your league-mates. We shouldn't automatically assume negative or hostile intent if there's a viable alternative explanation. Build a bridge instead of burning one.

© Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports razor

Occam's Razor

When weighing multiple explanations, we should favor the one with the fewest assumptions. Bottom line, the simplest explanation is often the best one. That's not always easy to apply when looking at the complex tools and algorithms available in today's fantasy football marketplace, but it is valuable when making your projections or building a strategy. The simplest path to a productive season is generally the most viable option when choosing between players, outputs, or different strategies.

The opposite of Occam's razor is Occam's duct tape which is when someone approaches a problem with a ridiculously large number of assumptions. A dangerous path, especially in the fantasy football content arena, as folks often take an outcome or final answer and deconstruct it. We get so focused on chasing our spreadsheet Nirvana that we’ll uncover elements, ingredients, strands, facets, and characteristics that lead us back to what we already believe are the right answers – even if they're simply numeric anomalies or coincidences.

Hume's Inductive Inferences

Okay, not technically labeled a "razor" but is still important to the lens we apply to the ever-changing layers of the NFL. The simple version is induction uses past events to predict the future and assumes the future will behave like the past. We all know that the NFL landscape is swirling with change from FA signings, trades, incoming draft classes, role clarity, constant coaching changes, and the synergy that exists between new schemes (offensively and defensively) and the athletes who play the game. Being aware of these changes and accounting for the associated impacts is far more valuable than simply expecting similar results year over year because it's happened previously.

Yes, there are advantages to utilizing hardcoded processes and the never-ending stream of data many in this community gravitate toward. There's also value underneath the surface, sitting below the scatter plots, data clusters, and algorithms.  Sometimes, the most valuable, untapped areas are found on the psychological fringes when it comes to playing this game of fantasy football we all love so much.

Thanks for reading! If you want to learn more about Dynasty Fantasy Football and the strategic nuances associated with fantasy football in general, follow me on X @Ciga_FF and read my other articles here.   Let me know your questions and how I can help. 

 

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