Okay, I’m on the clock. Time to pick! Finally, it's my turn!

Who to pick? Choices, choices. Why are my hands sweating? I need a running back, but there’s no positional value available at this pick. Oh boy. Seriously, the consensus says this tier has four wide receivers in it and - of course - I like all four. UGHHHH. What to do…what to do?

On-the-clock pressure and working through a tough decision can be both exhilarating and daunting. Let’s take a look at a decision tree model that can be applied to every pick regardless of round or draft slot. It’s a tool I use myself to work through the choices, possibilities, and pivots as a draft unfolds. It makes executing a pick or a strategy more measured and a little less uncertain.

Below is the visual gauntlet of questions I apply to each pick regardless of round/slot. The one caveat I’ll add is that league format and scoring are always a part of every step during this process. In this example, the picks in play are 2.08 and 3.08.

Draft Strategy: Step by Step

1. Identifying Targets

The first lens I apply deals with my own personal want list and how it correlates with the pool of available players. I approach every draft - rookie, start-up, redraft, or bestball - with a list of targets, or at the very least, multiple high-level plans for attacking certain groups of players based on round/positions/values. This is about my targets - the players I covet either through my prognostications or a combination of trusted voices.

2. Navigating ADP

Average draft position (ADP) is the next piece of the puzzle. It offers insight into which players are typically available at a particular stage of the draft based on past data including previous drafts similar in format and scoring. Understanding the typical availability of players by round and draft position takes a lot of the guesswork out and allows for synergy between practical application and strategy. Some folks will likely lead with ADP as the cornerstone of their process, but I prefer to start with my targets already baked into the equation before looking at ADP.

 3. Assessing Value

The third factor is to scrutinize the draft board value and analyze it using two different lenses.

• First, scour the draft board for any positive variance to capitalize on. Are certain players dropping in the draft? Is there an ADP darling I need to consider? If multiple players are falling, how does that potentially impact my draft board for the next few rounds? Will falling value act as a potential trade catalyst? Is all the value at a certain position drying up?
• Next, look for recent situational differentiators that the market may have potentially overlooked. Do any available players have significant positive variables such as a lack of competition, volume expectations, quarterback play, changes to the coaching staff, or offensive line? Have any new negative aspects been introduced to a player’s situation?

Identifying value throughout the draft - not just when you’re on the clock - will illuminate choices and provide ample opportunities to maneuver into advantageous positions. 

4. Addressing Positional Needs

It's important to distinguish between correlation and causation when considering roster needs and draft decisions. Is there a correlation between roster needs and draft decisions? Sure there is, but those needs should never cause you to act unless the value is palpable. The keys to managing this situation are multilayered – understanding the positional value on the board, being cognizant of the current positional needs of your fellow drafters, and having awareness regarding the potential run that could be in play for a certain position. Positional runs can have a psychological riptide-esque pull, but remember that the draft is just the beginning – you can always address positional shortcomings through trades and waivers once the dust settles.

5. Adaptive Strategy Pivots

This is the last lens to apply, but certainly not the least valuable. As stated earlier, begin every draft with multiple strategies already visualized, ready to adjust based on evolving circumstances. Every draft gets its own identity. As patterns become evident – opportunities arise and I look for these pivot windows to adjust my strategy. Maybe you decide to punt on a certain position or maybe you focus on running back instead of wide receiver based on how the draft is materializing in the middle rounds. This level of flexibility provides for a holistic evaluation of your draft strategy and allows for any necessary adjustments. you a chance to perform an overall health assessment on your current draft strategy and adjust if necessary.

Draft Strategy: Final Thoughts

This is a simplistic breakdown of a fundamental approach to drafting. It’s been my experience, though, that sometimes executing an obvious process can be challenging when faced with sensory overloads from so many tools, an infinite stream of data at our immediate disposal, and being on the clock making that all-important draft selection. The example I’ve provided is the process that works for me when navigating those on-the-clock challenges. Changing it to fit your approach, and applying it going forward is the real key. Ultimately, working with a blueprint allows for visualization, repetition, familiarity, reflection, and improvement. It makes navigating ambiguity and being adaptable much easier to accomplish consistently and successfully.

You can find me on X @Ciga_FF, so please reach out with any comments or questions.