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Overview
The Commanders' defense was a disaster last year. They allowed the most passing yards in the league and were 27th versus the run. Washington gave up 75 plays for 20+ yards while only six teams created fewer turnovers, and six teams had fewer sacks. The most telling number is 63. That is how many more points Washington allowed than any other team.
The rebuild started with an in-season fire sale ahead of the trade deadline that saw both edge starters shipped out. It continued shortly after the season ended with the installation of a new coaching staff, including head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt. Then came the sweeping personnel changes.
Washington hit free agency hard, adding at least five new starters to the roster, including two edge defenders, two linebackers, and a strong safety. They followed that up by using two of their three second-round picks on a tackle and a corner. The moral of this story is, to forget everything we knew about this defense before now. This is not that team.
Quinn was the Cowboys defensive coordinator from 2021 through 2023 and Whitt was his secondary coach and passing game coordinator. This is Whitt’s first opportunity as a coordinator at the NFL level so we have no history to examine. What we do know is that he will run an aggressive 4-3 that should have a lot of similarities to Quinn’s scheme in Dallas.
Defensive Linemen
There is one area of Washington’s defense that needed no attention. In Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen, the Commanders have an interior line tandem that rivals any in the league. Allen and Payne are powerful yet freakishly athletic for guys of 300 and 320 pounds, respectively. They are durable, with three games missed between them over the last six seasons, and they are highly productive with a combined 69 career sacks.
Payne and Allen are a headache for offensive lines because their versatility allows them to be used interchangeably. Both are talented enough to command double teams on every play. There are not enough bodies on the offensive line for that, so offenses have to pick their poison. That dilemma pays dividends in the box scores.
Allen is a perennial IDP stud at the tackle position and a quality starter, even in leagues that lump the position together. Since taking over the starting job in 2018, he has at least 30 solo tackles and 51 combined in six consecutive seasons.
Allen had 40 or more solo stops in three of those seasons, with no less than 21 assists in any of them. He has at least five and a half sacks in five of his six seasons, with a career total of 39.
In 2022, Allen’s 10.2 points per game ranked third among tackles and eighth among all defensive linemen. His numbers were down a little in 2023, but even in what was his lowest production since 2017, Allen was a solid second starter. The point here is his exceptional consistency. In six seasons, Allen has four top-ten finishes at the tackle position, two top-fives, and has never been lower than 22nd. He is not a candidate to be the first lineman or even the first tackle off the board, but he is as close to a sure thing as it gets in this game.
It is uncommon for a 300+ pound interior lineman to reach double-digit sacks. In 2022, Payne added his name to that exclusive list. Over his six seasons, Payne has kept pace with Allen in the tackles columns, posting at least 53 combined stops every year. Payne got to the quarterback for eleven and a half sacks in 2022. That will almost certainly remain a career outlier, as he has no more than five in any other season. He may not get to the quarterback as often as Allen, but Payne makes up for it in the turnover columns, where he has 13 over his career, including 4 in 2023.
Payne usually trails Allen by a few slots in the IDP rankings. That was not the case last season when he was four ahead at number 19. Production for both players was down a little in 2023. Expect them to rebound in 2024, with Payne returning to priority DT2 status.
The Commanders used a second-round pick on Alabama’s Phidarian Mathis in 2022. He was expected to take on a big role as the third man on the inside. That plan ended with a week-one knee injury that shut him down for the year. Mathis did not return to the field until week eight of 2023, and he didn’t play more than 20 snaps in a game until week thirteen. He should be fully recovered now and could finally give the team some return on investment.
Mathis should fit the mold perfectly. He is big and powerful yet quick and athletic, just like the players he will spell. With Allen signed through the 2025 season and Payne through 2026, it looks like Mathis will be stuck in the rotational role for a while. On the other hand, if either of the starters misses time, keep in mind that Mathis totaled 53 combined tackles, 9 sacks, and 3 turnovers as a senior at Alabama in 2021.
Washington added more depth at the position this spring, picking Jer’Zhan Newton early in round two. With a healthy Mathis and the selection of Newton, the Commanders have outstanding depth and what could be a scary rotation. They now have four interior players, all in excess of 300 pounds, who are quick and athletic with a penchant for stopping the run and harassing quarterbacks.
Newton put up strong numbers as a three-year starter for Illinois. In 37 games, he produced 165 combined tackles, 18 sacks, and 5 turnovers. For a man of 304 pounds, Newton is remarkably quick and nimble. He has great instincts and the upper body strength to neutralize and shed blockers at the point of attack. One scout wrote that he explodes off the ball and has the range of a big defensive end. Considering the team’s situation on the outside, that might have been a prophetic statement.
The commanders threw in the towel early in 2023, trading Chase Young and Montez Sweat ahead of the deadline. That left them with big holes at those positions. The new coaches robbed their former team of two players who should help. Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr were stuck in the shadows of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence at a crowded position in Dallas. There is no crowd on the edge in Washington, so the duo will have their chance to shine.
Armstrong was a fourth-round pick of the Cowboys in 2018. He played a lot of football over six seasons with the team but his only starts came in relief of injured players. He is more than just a third-down guy with much of his rotational time in Dallas, coming series to series rather than in passing situations.
Armstrong’s raw numbers are not eye-catching, but his per-snap production is impressive. Over the last three seasons, he has 51 tackles, 47 assists, and 20 sacks on 1621 plays. Let’s break down last year as an example. He was 20-18-7 on 468 snaps. Parsons went 36-28-14 on 912. Based on his per-snap production, had Armstrong played 912 snaps, he would have gone 39-35-13.5. Is he as good as Parsons? That might be stretching it, but Washington could have at least one long-term answer on the edge, possibly giving IDP managers a late-round ace in the hole.
It’s hard to get as excited about Fowler. The third overall pick by Jacksonville in 2016 has seen plenty of opportunity and has shown up at times but has never taken full advantage. Washington is his sixth stop in nine seasons after spending the last two in Dallas.
Fowler had an outstanding 2019 with the Rams. That year, he totaled 40-16-11.5 with 3 turnovers, 6 batted passes, and a score. He has no more than 22 solo tackles or 8 sacks in any other season. Fowler went 22-5-6 with 2 forced fumbles on 378 plays for Dallas in 2022. That is pretty strong per snap production. Still, it is hard to overlook that Fowler slumped to 8-5-4 after being passed by Sam Williams on the depth chart last year. Opportunity is king, and Fowler is in line for plenty of it. I like Armstrong better, but Fowler is worthy of a late-round flier.
- Edge Dorance Armstrong – Breakout candidate
- Edge Dante Fowler – Risk/reward sleeper
- Edge Clelin Ferrell – No impact
- Edge Efe Obada – PUP
- Edge K.J. Henry – Second-year developmental player
- Edge Andre Jones Jr. – No impact
- Edge Javontae Jean-Baptiste – Developmental rookie
- DT Jonathan Allen – Priority DT2 with top ten potential
- DT Da'Ron Payne – Quality DT2 with marginal upside
- DT Phidarian Mathis – Injury/dynasty sleeper
- DT Jer’Zhan Newton – Watchlist rookie with big long-term potential
- DT John Ridgeway – Marginal impact at best
Linebackers
How bad was Washington’s linebacker situation last year? The only player remaining on the roster from that group is Jamin Davis and he is looking at a limited role on the strong side. Davis was unimpressive, Cody Barton was Cody Barton, and no one else stood up to claim one of the jobs. The Commanders are having none of that in 2024.
They signed arguably the two best linebackers in this year's free-agent class. Bobby Wagner is 34 years old and entering his thirteenth season. Even at this stage of his career, Wagner is an excellent linebacker. He plays every snap and is the leader of a rebuilding team that needs to help turn things around.
Can Wagner still play, you ask? All he did in Seattle last season was record a new career high of 183 combined tackles with 92 solo, 3 sacks, 3 batted passes, and a takeaway to finish as the fantasy game’s LB7. Wagner is a future Hall of Famer and will be a perennial IDP star until he hangs up the cleats.
Luvu’s career has been shorter and quieter, but he has made some noise over the last two seasons. He made the Jets roster as an undrafted rookie in 2018. After three years as a backup, he signed with the Panthers in 2021. Luvu cracked the lineup in 2022 and had a big season. His 77 tackles and 34 assists were solid but Luvu added 7 sacks, 2 takeaways, 4 batted passes, and a score, falling just shy of his first top twenty. His 2023 saw similar production with a rank in the mid-LB3 range.
Luvu was up and down in 2023, reaching double-digit points eight times with six or fewer in five games. He is a dependable tackler with enough cover skills to stay on the field in all situations. Luvu excels at the blitz, with 12.5 sacks over his two seasons as a starter. Unlike Wagner, Luvu is not going to make many Pro Bowl appearances. He may not even be the long-term answer on the weak side in Washington, but he is a solid starter and an upgrade over what the team had last year.
The writing was on the wall for Jamin Davis when, despite the marginal competition, he failed to land a three-down role out of the gate last year. He played every snap for a few games when Barton was injured and then missed the final four games. The writing was even clearer this off-season when the team elected not to exercise the fifth-year option on Davis. They are calling him the starting strong-side linebacker but Davis is playing in a scheme that will rarely put three linebackers on the field.
Wagner signed a one-year deal, so the organization hopes Jordan Magee can learn from him and be ready to take the reins by next year. Magee was a starter at Temple for two seasons and most of a third, so he has some experience. He is undersized with average measurables but brings character, leadership, and a high football IQ to the mix.
- MLB Bobby Wagner – Strong LB1 no matter who he plays for
- WLB Frankie Luvu – Solid third starter or quality depth
- SLB Jamin Davis – Heavy bust candidate
- MLB Jordan Magee – Dynasty watchlist
- WLB Mykal Walker – Injury sleeper
Defensive Backs
Washington’s secondary will have some new names and get Darrick Forrest back from injury. Strong safety Kamren Curl and lead corner Kendal Fuller left in free agency. The team signed Jeremy Chinn to take over the strong safety position and will promote from within to fill the void at corner.
The addition of Chinn could be huge for the Commanders and IDP managers alike. There was a buzz surrounding Chinn when the Panthers drafted him at the end of round two in 2020. He was arguably the best safety in his draft class and was highly productive at Southern Illinois, where he was a tackling machine and a playmaker.
For two seasons, Chinn lived up to the hype. As a rookie, he totaled 70-46-1 with 5 turnovers, 5 passes defended, a pair of scores, and a final rank of third at the safety position. In year two, Chinn was fourth among safeties with 77 solo stops, adding 31 assists, a sack, 3 turnovers, and 5 passes defended, to finish 16th. He missed seven games with a hamstring injury in 2022. In the ten he played, Chinn was 51-19-1 with 6 passes defended, on pace for 87-32-2 and 10 pass breakups.
His tackle totals kept going up, but the splash plays went down. This had more to do with the scheme and his role than anything Chinn was doing, as the Panthers coaches could not decide where to play him. The bottom line is that he produced in one way or another so long as he was on the field.
Outside of the games he missed in 2022, Chinn played virtually every snap over his first three seasons. It all came to a screeching halt last year when Carolina opened the season with Xavier Woods and Vonn Bell as the starting safeties while Chinn was relegated to a part-time role. This is a mistake the Commaners are not going to make.
At six feet three and 220 pounds, Chinn is a safety trapped in the body of a linebacker. He hits like a linebacker but is also a playmaker when the role allows it. Now that he is in Washington and has a defined role as the strong safety, there is a good chance he will return to IDP prominence.
Darrick Forest was Washington’s fifth-round pick in 2021. He played special teams as a rookie and was a surprise week-one starter in 2022. While many of us were caught off-guard, it didn’t take long to understand the decision. In his first game, Forrest recorded five tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble. It was not a fluke. By the end of the season, he had accumulated 88 combined stops with 7 turnovers, and 9 passes defended.
Forrest was off to a much slower start last year, totaling 29 tackles but no other contributions through the first five games when a shoulder injury ended his season. He has been a full participant throughout the offseason so the injury is behind him. Now we have to see if Forrest was a one-year wonder in 2022 or is the playmaker the Commanders are looking for at free safety. Having watched him play for my hometown Bearcats in college, I expect to see the playmaker.
Washington might have more work to do at the corner position but for now, they are going with a youth movement. With Fuller gone, they will look to last year’s first-round pick, Emmanuel Forbes Jr., to pick up the torch. Forbes battled nagging injuries as a rookie, missing three games while playing less than ten snaps in four others. When healthy, he was the third corner. With 482 plays of experience as a pro, Forbes will be in the spotlight heading into this season. He might be in the cross-hairs of opposing offenses as well.
Benjamin St-Juste has the most experience and probably the most IDP value here. While the rookie corner rule points to Forbes as an inexperienced first-time starter, the game film points to St-Juste as a potential weakness. St-Juste is entering his fourth year as a pro. He dealt with injuries over the first two, missing 13 games between 2021 and 2022. St-Juste landed the starting job opposite Fuller last season. He missed one game while recording respectable numbers of 53-13-1 with 3 turnovers and 17 passes defended. That was enough for a rank of 20th and made him useful to us as a good CB2 option. He was targeted often by opposing offenses and while St-Juste made a lot of plays, he gave up too many big ones. That should keep offenses looking his way until he shows improvement and consistency.
Jatavius Quan Martin was a second-round pick of the Commanders last spring and is set to take on a big role in his second season. Martin's playing time increased steadily as a rookie. He even started some games down the stretch, seeing 295 snaps over the final six games. Martin has impressed this offseason and is in line for a potentially productive role as the slot corner.
Martin is blazing fast, has the cover skills to hang with receivers down the field, and is showing signs of being a playmaker. Considering his limited action of 365 plays as a rookie, his totals of 28-18-1 with 2 interceptions and 4 passes defended were fairly impressive. After seeing what players like Taron Johnson, L’Jarius Sneed, and Jalen Ramsey have done as slot defenders over the last few years, I am always looking for the next name to put on that list. Martin could be that guy.
The Commanders have good depth at safety with veterans Percy Butler and Jeremy Reaves. They even have a prospect for the future in rookie Dominique Hampton. There are some veterans at the corner position as well, but the next man up might be second-round rookie Mike Sainristil. He is a small but tough player who worked from the slot at Michigan, where he recorded 3 sacks, 7 picks, 2 forced fumbles, and a pair of scores over the last two seasons. An injury on the outside could see the team move Martin out, with Sainristil taking over the slot.
- SS Jeremy Chinn – Leading candidate for IDP comeback player of the year
- FS Darrick Forrest – Depth with some upside
- FS Percy Butler – No impact
- SS Jeremy Reaves – Injury sleeper
- FS Dominique Hampton – Developmental rookie
- CB Emmanuel Forbes – Watchlist worthy but no big expectations
- CB Benjamin St-Juste – Decent second starter
- CB Jartavius Quan Martin – Sleeper prospect with good upside
- CB Mike Sainristil – Dynasty watchlist
- CB Christian Holmes – No impact
Coming up, we wrap up the offseason edition of this year's EOTG with the Eagles.
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