Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 31: Washington Commanders

Photo: USA Today Sports

The following feature is a free preview of our IDP content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys ELITE Subscription, and you'll get all of our IDP content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.

Overview

The Commanders' defense was a disaster last year. They allowed the most passing yards in the league and were 27th versus the run. Washington gave up 75 plays for 20+ yards while only six teams created fewer turnovers, and six teams had fewer sacks. The most telling number is 63. That is how many more points Washington allowed than any other team.

The rebuild started with an in-season fire sale ahead of the trade deadline that saw both edge starters shipped out. It continued shortly after the season ended with the installation of a new coaching staff, including head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt. Then came the sweeping personnel changes.

Washington hit free agency hard, adding at least five new starters to the roster, including two edge defenders, two linebackers, and a strong safety. They followed that up by using two of their three second-round picks on a tackle and a corner. The moral of this story is, to forget everything we knew about this defense before now. This is not that team.

Quinn was the Cowboys defensive coordinator from 2021 through 2023 and Whitt was his secondary coach and passing game coordinator. This is Whitt’s first opportunity as a coordinator at the NFL level so we have no history to examine. What we do know is that he will run an aggressive 4-3 that should have a lot of similarities to Quinn’s scheme in Dallas.

Defensive Linemen

There is one area of Washington’s defense that needed no attention. In Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen, the Commanders have an interior line tandem that rivals any in the league. Allen and Payne are powerful yet freakishly athletic for guys of 300 and 320 pounds, respectively. They are durable, with three games missed between them over the last six seasons, and they are highly productive with a combined 69 career sacks.

Payne and Allen are a headache for offensive lines because their versatility allows them to be used interchangeably. Both are talented enough to command double teams on every play. There are not enough bodies on the offensive line for that, so offenses have to pick their poison. That dilemma pays dividends in the box scores.

Allen is a perennial IDP stud at the tackle position and a quality starter, even in leagues that lump the position together. Since taking over the starting job in 2018, he has at least 30 solo tackles and 51 combined in six consecutive seasons.

Allen had 40 or more solo stops in three of those seasons, with no less than 21 assists in any of them. He has at least five and a half sacks in five of his six seasons, with a career total of 39.

In 2022, Allen’s 10.2 points per game ranked third among tackles and eighth among all defensive linemen. His numbers were down a little in 2023, but even in what was his lowest production since 2017, Allen was a solid second starter. The point here is his exceptional consistency. In six seasons, Allen has four top-ten finishes at the tackle position, two top-fives, and has never been lower than 22nd. He is not a candidate to be the first lineman or even the first tackle off the board, but he is as close to a sure thing as it gets in this game.        

It is uncommon for a 300+ pound interior lineman to reach double-digit sacks. In 2022, Payne added his name to that exclusive list. Over his six seasons, Payne has kept pace with Allen in the tackles columns, posting at least 53 combined stops every year. Payne got to the quarterback for eleven and a half sacks in 2022. That will almost certainly remain a career outlier, as he has no more than five in any other season. He may not get to the quarterback as often as Allen, but Payne makes up for it in the turnover columns, where he has 13 over his career, including 4 in 2023.  

Payne usually trails Allen by a few slots in the IDP rankings. That was not the case last season when he was four ahead at number 19. Production for both players was down a little in 2023. Expect them to rebound in 2024, with Payne returning to priority DT2 status.

The Commanders used a second-round pick on Alabama’s Phidarian Mathis in 2022. He was expected to take on a big role as the third man on the inside. That plan ended with a week-one knee injury that shut him down for the year. Mathis did not return to the field until week eight of 2023, and he didn’t play more than 20 snaps in a game until week thirteen. He should be fully recovered now and could finally give the team some return on investment.

Mathis should fit the mold perfectly. He is big and powerful yet quick and athletic, just like the players he will spell. With Allen signed through the 2025 season and Payne through 2026, it looks like Mathis will be stuck in the rotational role for a while. On the other hand, if either of the starters misses time, keep in mind that Mathis totaled 53 combined tackles, 9 sacks, and 3 turnovers as a senior at Alabama in 2021.  

Washington added more depth at the position this spring, picking Jer’Zhan Newton early in round two. With a healthy Mathis and the selection of Newton, the Commanders have outstanding depth and what could be a scary rotation. They now have four interior players, all in excess of 300 pounds, who are quick and athletic with a penchant for stopping the run and harassing quarterbacks.

Newton put up strong numbers as a three-year starter for Illinois. In 37 games, he produced 165 combined tackles, 18 sacks, and 5 turnovers. For a man of 304 pounds, Newton is remarkably quick and nimble. He has great instincts and the upper body strength to neutralize and shed blockers at the point of attack. One scout wrote that he explodes off the ball and has the range of a big defensive end. Considering the team’s situation on the outside, that might have been a prophetic statement.

The commanders threw in the towel early in 2023, trading Chase Young and Montez Sweat ahead of the deadline. That left them with big holes at those positions. The new coaches robbed their former team of two players who should help. Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr were stuck in the shadows of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence at a crowded position in Dallas. There is no crowd on the edge in Washington, so the duo will have their chance to shine.

Armstrong was a fourth-round pick of the Cowboys in 2018. He played a lot of football over six seasons with the team but his only starts came in relief of injured players. He is more than just a third-down guy with much of his rotational time in Dallas, coming series to series rather than in passing situations.

Armstrong’s raw numbers are not eye-catching, but his per-snap production is impressive. Over the last three seasons, he has 51 tackles, 47 assists, and 20 sacks on 1621 plays. Let’s break down last year as an example. He was 20-18-7 on 468 snaps. Parsons went 36-28-14 on 912. Based on his per-snap production, had Armstrong played 912 snaps, he would have gone 39-35-13.5. Is he as good as Parsons? That might be stretching it, but Washington could have at least one long-term answer on the edge, possibly giving IDP managers a late-round ace in the hole.

It’s hard to get as excited about Fowler. The third overall pick by Jacksonville in 2016 has seen plenty of opportunity and has shown up at times but has never taken full advantage. Washington is his sixth stop in nine seasons after spending the last two in Dallas.

Fowler had an outstanding 2019 with the Rams. That year, he totaled 40-16-11.5 with 3 turnovers, 6 batted passes, and a score. He has no more than 22 solo tackles or 8 sacks in any other season. Fowler went 22-5-6 with 2 forced fumbles on 378 plays for Dallas in 2022. That is pretty strong per snap production. Still, it is hard to overlook that Fowler slumped to 8-5-4 after being passed by Sam Williams on the depth chart last year. Opportunity is king, and Fowler is in line for plenty of it. I like Armstrong better, but Fowler is worthy of a late-round flier.          

• Edge Dorance Armstrong – Breakout candidate
• Edge Dante Fowler – Risk/reward sleeper
• Edge Clelin Ferrell – No impact
• Edge Efe Obada – PUP
• Edge K.J. Henry – Second-year developmental player
• Edge Andre Jones Jr. – No impact
• Edge Javontae Jean-Baptiste – Developmental rookie
• DT Jonathan Allen – Priority DT2 with top ten potential
• DT Da'Ron Payne – Quality DT2 with marginal upside
• DT Phidarian Mathis – Injury/dynasty sleeper
• DT Jer’Zhan Newton – Watchlist rookie with big long-term potential
• DT John Ridgeway – Marginal impact at best