Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 20: Tennessee Titans

When the Titans earned playoff berths from 2019 to 2021, they did so by running the ball and playing great defense. Over the last two seasons, that formula did not work so well, largely because the defense began slipping. They were still good, but not enough to carry the team.

The run defense held up in 2022 tying for the fewest yards per carry. It remained strong in 2023 as well, slipping to fourth in that category and 13^th in yards surrendered. It is the pass defense that has regressed significantly. In 2023 Tennessee allowed 7.7 yards per attempt. Only the Bengals and Lions gave up more. The pass rush got home a solid 45 times, but the Titans managed a league-low six interceptions and were 31^st in total turnovers.

Defensive Linemen

Odd-front defenses normally rely on the edge positions to supply the pass rush. The Titans got 26.5 sacks from their interior linemen in 2022 and 19 from those positions last year. After recording 19 of those 35.5 sacks, Denico Autry will be suiting up for the division-rival Texans. That production will be difficult to replace. The team had no one waiting in the wings to take over so they signed Sebastian Joseph-Day.

A sixth-round pick of the Rams in 2019, Joseph-Day is a five-year starter in the league, covering three teams. He should be a bit of an upgrade over Autry versus the run, but with eleven career sacks, Joseph-Day is a big step down as a pass rusher.

From the IDP perspective, Joseph-Day could have surprising value in this system. He is productive in the tackles columns, totaling 35-19-1 in 2020. He followed that season with a 2021 campaign that had him on pace to go 46-30-6 when injury struck. Joseph-Day moved to the Chargers in 2022, where he once again exceeded 50 combined tackles but added just 2 sacks. His 2023 season was split between the Chargers and 49ers and resulted in the lowest tackle totals of his career, but he managed to tie his career best of three sacks.

The reasons I am optimistic about Joseph-Day with the Titans are the scheme and the production of the players in it. During Autry's three seasons there, he put up the first and third-highest tackle total of his ten-year career, along with three of his four best sack totals. Tennessee runs an aggressive, penetrating, one-gap attack that allows linemen to make plays instead of strapping them with space-eating responsibilities. If there is a place that can bring out better numbers from Joseph-Day, this is it.  

There is no need to speculate when it comes to Jeffrey Simmons. He is one of the best in the NFL at the position and is among the most dependable options in the game for IDP managers. It took the 2019 first-round pick a couple of years to get going. He hit his stride in 2021. That season Simmons was 43-12-8.5 with six batted passes and a rank of sixth among tackles. He followed that with 54 combined stops, 7.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and seven pass breakups in 2022 for a rank of twelfth.

Simmons missed the final five games of 2023 with a sprained knee. When he was injured in week thirteen, he ranked fourth among tackles. Simmons has recovered from the sore knee and at age 26, is set to be a perennial top-twelve IDP option for the next several years.  

The Titans had several players see snaps at their nose tackle position last year. In 2024, most of that playing time should go to rookie T'Vondre Sweat. The second-round pick is a six-foot-four, 366-pound mountain. He is not quick, fast, or athletic but will demand double teams on virtually every snap, and most of those will still not move him.

There is not much technique involved when Sweat rushes the passer. Instead, he will use brute force and a long reach to collapse the pocket and blot out the middle of the field. Sweat will see most of his action on early downs but could get more snaps than most nose tackles. His impact on games can be huge while his contributions in the box scores might be limited. That said, Sweat totaled 45 tackles and 2 sacks in his final season at Texas.

 Marlon Davidson is the next man up at the three-technique positions, while Keondre Coburn is the favorite to spell Sweat when he needs a breather. Neither of these guys has much experience, and no future starters are waiting in the wings. An injury to any of the starters could be a problem.

In Harold Landry III, the Titans have an outstanding three-down edge defender and an excellent IDP target. He missed all of 2022 with an ACL injury. In every other season since his rookie campaign in 2018, Landry has at least 44 solo tackles and 21 assists. Landry averaged six sacks over his first three years in the league but has 22.5 over his last two.

The strong tackle production alone is enough to give Landry some value. Consistent double-digit sack totals make him an every-week starter for us. He slipped into the top twelve in 2021 and ranked fifteenth in 2023. Now that he is two seasons removed from the injury, Landry is a candidate for the top ten.

The Titans need a bookend for Landry but that will have to wait for another offseason. For now, they will continue to go with journeyman Arden Key. The 2018 third-round pick spent three seasons with the Raiders before starting a three-team tour that included stops in San Francisco, Jacksonville, and now Tennessee. He is a steady veteran placeholder who will contribute but has limited upside.

Key has never exceeded 30 combined stops or 6.5 sacks in a season. He was 17-13-6 with a pair of forced fumbles as the starter opposite Landry last season. With the help of the scheme and a strong supporting cast, it would not be a surprise to see the best numbers of his career in 2024. That does not necessarily mean they will be good enough to make Key roster-worthy for IDP managers.

With Key as the best option opposite Landry, the team is short on quality depth at the position. Rashad Weaver served as the third man last season and is in line for those duties again. The Titans 2021 fourth-round pick missed his rookie season with a broken leg but showed promise in year two. With Landry out, Weaver took on the lead role on the edge, going 18-9-5 with 3 turnovers and 6 batted passes on a team-high 640 snaps at the position. Instead of taking the next step in 2023, he was replaced as a starter by Key and went 11-9-0 on 240 plays.       

The closest thing to competition for Weaver is second-year undrafted free agent Caleb Murphy, who played four snaps last year, and seventh-round rookie Jaylen Harrell who could see a few snaps as a nickel or dime rush specialist. TK McLendon is a tweener who could see some early down action on the edge.   

• Edge Harold Landry – Quality second starter with a little upside
• Edge Arden Key – Marginal impact expected
• Edge Rashad Weaver – Injury sleeper with marginal potential
• Edge Kaleb Murphy – No impact
• Edge Jaylen Harrell – No impact
• DT Jeffery Simmons – Solid DT1
• DT Sebastian Joseph-Day – Sleeper with DT2 potential
• DT Marlon Davidson – Injury sleeper at best
• DT TK McLendon Jr. – No impact
• NT T'Vondre Sweat – Watchlist rookie with no grand expectations
• NT Keondre Coburn – No impact

Linebackers

For the fourth year in a row, the Titans will have at least one new starter at the inside linebacker position. Once they get a good look at Kenneth Murray,, they might make it five in a row next year. He made a lot of starts for the Chargers over his four years with the team, so the 2020 first-round pick was not a total bust. On the other hand, Los Angeles refused his fifth-year option and made no effort to keep him around when his rookie contract expired.

One of the biggest challenges for the Chargers defensive staff was finding a way to put Murray on the field without hamstringing the defense. He struggled as a full-time starter in 2020 and battled an ankle injury in 2021. Many blamed the chronic ankle issue for all of Murray's early struggles, but the truth is, the scheme and coaching staff expected things that were not in his wheelhouse.

They tried Murray in several roles, including as a two-down inside backer and a stint on the edge as a pass rusher. What they learned is that Murray has limitations. He is good versus the run and can get home on the blitz once in a while, but Murray is not fast enough to work off the edge and must be protected in coverage. The problem for the Titans' coaching staff is that they have no other option but to play him full-time.

Murray's best season as a pro was 2023 when he totaled 78-28-3 with an interception and 4 pass breakups in fifteen games. At 10.8 points per game, it was his first top-40 finish, coming in at 28th. Maybe Murray will find a home in Tennessee or maybe the Titans coaching staff will figure out how to get the best out of him, but counting on Muyyay as more than a marginal third starter could come back to bite fantasy managers.

Jack Gibbens joined the Titans as an undrafted rookie in 2022. He won the two-down inside backer job last year and has been running with the starters in the same role during off-season activities. Gibbens is not a long-term answer but he did an adequate job, especially as a run defender. With 57 tackles and 39 assists on a mere 628 snaps, his per-play production was strong. Gibbens played in fourteen games but reached a 70% play share in seven. If he earns an expanded role, he could become relevant in IDP circles. Let's just say we shouldn't count on it.

Considering the players ahead of him on the depth chart entering camp, picking up fourth-round rookie Cedric Gray might be a prudent move for fantasy managers. He has the size, speed, and athleticism to handle a three-down role, which he did as a three-year starter for North Carolina. Gray is arguably the team's best coverage linebacker already.

The most intriguing aspect of Gray is his college resume. He racked up stats like a video game while playing for the Tarheels. Over 39 games, Gray tallied 199 tackles, 170 assists, 8.5 sacks, 5 interceptions, 6 forced fumbles, 5 recoveries, and 13 passes defended. Even if he doesn't land the starting job right out of the gate, chances are his opportunity will come at some point this season.  

• ILB Kenneth Murray – Decent third starter or quality depth by default
• ILB Jack Gibbens – Potential depth with limited upside
• ILB Cedric Gray – Strong sleeper and dynasty target
• ILB Luke Gifford – Special teams guy

Defensive Backs

Injuries played a role in the struggles of Tennessee's secondary. No player, starter or otherwise, was active for every game. The makeover started with the midseason trade of longtime starting safety Kevin Byard III to the Eagles. It continued in the offseason when K'Von Wallace, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Kristian Fulton were allowed to walk in free agency. All of those players were multiple-game starters in 2023.

The Byard trade was a shocker. He was a standout eight-year starter, had the fourth most interceptions in franchise history, and was 29 years old. Whatever their motivation was, the team has moved on with Elijah Molden expected to take over the free safety job. Byard was a quality IDP target during his time there, with much of his value hinging on big plays. Has thus far, not shown that kind of playmaking prowess.

Molden joined the Titans as a third-round pick in 2021. He came into the league as a corner, seeing a good amount of action as the team's nickel DB in his rookie year. A groin injury wiped out his second season but he was back in the nickel role for much of last year. Molden has seen some action at free safety when injuries forced the secondary to shuffle. The coaching staff must have liked what they saw from him. The additions of L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie free up Molden for a full-time move that should put him on the field for nearly every snap in 2024.

With relatively little to go on, putting an IDP value on Molden requires a lot of speculation with a bit of an educated guess. He accounted for 47 tackles, 26 assists, and 3 turnovers, on 701 plays in 2023. That level of per-snap production exceeds what Byard typically produced in the tackle columns. At that rate, 1150 snaps, which would have been about 95% for the Titans last year, would put Molden at 77 tackles, 43 assists, and 5 turnovers. I'm not ready to predict that kind of production but will point out that this team has a lot of questions at the second level, so the safeties could be busy.

Amani Hooker has been in and out of the starting strong safety job over the last three seasons. Injuries have been a factor but are not the only reason he has not been on the field for more than 868 plays in any season. The coaching staff finally committed to Hooker last season. He missed three games but logged 100% participation in eleven outings, never falling short of 89%. The result was a career-high 69 solo stops with 16 assists, 3 turnovers, and 7 passes defended. His average of 10.8 points per game was also a career-best and ranked 19^th among safeties. All things considered, if he can avoid the trainer's room, 2024 could be his breakout season.                

As a rookie in 2022, Roger McCreary recorded 70 tackles, 14 assists, a pick, 8 passes defended, and was a top-20 corner. He missed two games last season but his average of 9.2 points per game was 14^th at the position. Two good years in a row is a positive but the additions at corner could spell a role change for McCreary.

We know that Chidobe Awuzie is going to play outside. He is an excellent cover man with the versatility to stick with all types of receivers. He was not the same player for much of last season as he recovered from a 2022 injury. A fully healthy, Awuzie is a major upgrade at the position and a capable number-one corner, but history tells us that he will be no more than a marginal IDP option.   

McCreary and Sneed have a lot in common in that both are proven fantasy contributors, both can play outside, and both excel as slot defenders. Many experts and prognosticators have McCreary penciled in at the slot with Sneed on the outside. This would be the best scenario for McCreary's fantasy value.

Sneed's most productive season also came as a slot corner. He was productive on the outside in 2021, finishing 19^th among corners on the strength of 57-19-1 with 4 turnovers, and 8 passes defended. Sneed found his perfect fit when the Chiefs played him as an aggressive slot in 2022, moving him around the field while turning him loose to freelance and make plays. The results were impressive. At 75-33-3.5 with 7 turnovers, and 11 passes defended, Sneed was the fantasy game's top corner. His role evolved last year when he and Trent McDuffie worked as interchangeable parts, both seeing time in the slot and on the outside. Both players were borderline CB1. What all of this tells us is that both Sneed and McCrary should be IDP-relevant as at least second starters. Depending on their roles, they could be more.   

There will be heated competition to determine the rest of the depth chart at corner. One player to keep an eye on is fifth-round rookie Jarvis Brownlee Jr. He is not particularly big but is a tough and physical press corner who plays bigger, especially in run support. He is an average downfield defender which means that if he is called upon, it would likely be to play over the slot. Brownlee's demeanor and competitiveness could lead to fantasy relevance if he gets on the field.     

• SS Amani Hooker – Target as a priority third safety with a high floor and ceiling
• FS Elijah Molden – Sleeper with DB3 potential  
• SS Mike Brown – No impact
• FS James Williams – Developmental rookie
• CB Roger McCreary – Should make a decent second starter or quality depth
• CB La'Jarius Sneed – Priority CB2 with CB1 upside
• CB Chidobe Awuzie – Marginal IDP value
• CB Caleb Farley – No impact
• CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. – Watchlist rookie

That's a wrap for part 20. Next week will kick off with the NFC South

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