Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 24: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 2023 Buccaneers played good defense, especially versus the run. They were one of eight teams to allow less than four yards per carry while ranking fifth in yards and eighth in points on the ground. They ran a tight ship, with only the Vikings giving up fewer runs of 20+ yards.

At a glance, Tampa Bay's rank of 30th in passing yards is bad. It looks much better when we consider that they faced the sixth most pass attempts on the season. They would like to improve on the 7.5 yards per attempt, which ranked 25th, and only the Lions allowed more passes of 20+ yards. The team made up for those deficiencies by recording the twelfth-most turnovers, seventh-most sacks, and seventh-fewest points overall.

Usually, when a defense performs so well, they try to keep the band together. For a variety of reasons, the organization parted with four starters. The changes continued the team's youth movement and saved a chunk of cap space. Now we need to see how much they affect the unit's performance. Don't be surprised if the defense is even better in 2024.   

Defensive Linemen

Like every first-round pick in NFL history, Tryon came with high expectations. Like many before him, he has not yet lived up to them. His rookie season went about as expected. He was the third man in the edge rotation, sharing time with Jason Pierre-Paul. The rookie got plenty of playing time in that role and posted respectable numbers for a rookie, at 21-8-4. In the normal progression of things, his numbers should have improved substantially in year two. Unfortunately, the only number to go up was his snap count.

Tryon's third year was marginally better at 28-17-5 with a pair of turnovers, but he continues to be a disappointment. With Free agency looming at the end of the season, this could be his last opportunity to impress the Buccaneers or earn a fat free-agent contract elsewhere.   

Shaquil Barrett racked up 19 sacks in his first season with the Buccaneers in 2019. He never reached double-digits again. After totaling four and a half last year, Barrett was not invited back. That opens the door for last year's rookie standout, Yaya Diaby to take over as a starter.

Diaby opened his rookie campaign in a backup role, seeing about 35% of the snaps over the first eleven weeks. He turned heads with a four-tackle, two-sack performance on 35 snaps versus San Francisco in week eleven. Diaby never played less than half the snaps in a game the rest of the way, seeing over 60% in most of them. On 515 plays, he totaled 25-13-7.5 with 3 turnovers, leading the team in sacks. He was red-hot in the box scores down the stretch as well, going 20-9-7.5 over the final nine games.

It was a small sample but enough to create excitement for the Buccaneers and IDP managers. Diaby could see a couple hundred more snaps in his second season. If he can continue the same level of production as the second half of last season, Diaby will be an IDP factor. He is one of my favorite sleepers at the edge position and a player I am looking to get on my dynasty rosters as well.

The biggest concern with Diaby is the veteran depth on the team. Barrett led the position with 652 regular season snaps in 2023. The top four players all saw at least 409. With Anthony Nelson and free agent addition Randy Gregory or second-round pick Chris Braswell as the backups, we could get a similar rotation this year.

Nelson is a steady and consistent contributor who excels versus the run and is a decent pass rusher. The most productive of his five seasons with the team came in 2022. Barrett was injured that year and Nelson did a solid job, starting nine games in relief. His total of 26-20-5 with 3 forced fumbles and a recovery, gives us a pretty good idea of what to expect if one of the starters goes down. Nelson reached at least 13 fantasy points in four of the final seven games, falling short of 7 points once. He will never be a league winner for us but could be useful as an in-season pickup.

Gregory is a talented player with a lot of baggage and an unimpressive resume'. His seven years with Dallas were riddled with injuries, suspensions, and the general turmoil that comes with a perennial head case. Mixed in with all that were some good stretches of play and enough production to make him a tease for IDP managers. An uneventful 2022 season with Denver that saw Gregory play in only six games, followed by a benching and a mid-season trade to San Francisco last year. That leads Gregory to where he is now, in what could be his final opportunity at age 31.

Putting a finger on his potential is tough. Gregory has never produced more than 24 combined tackles in a season, but then he's never played a full season with a significant role. He has 22 career sacks with a personal best of six that he's reached twice. He has twelve career turnovers with five of them coming in one season (2021) with the Cowboys. We'll call him an injury sleeper due to the upside.

Gregory will compete for playing time with the rookie. Chris Braswell played just over 1200 snaps during his three years at Alabama. Braswell is young and raw but could be molded to take over for Tryon at some point. There is room for improvement in all aspects of his game. Braswell needs to add muscle and play with better technique as a point-of-attack run defender and needs to refine and add to his arsenal as a pass rusher. He has the frame and physical tools to succeed with a year or two of hard work and good coaching.

The Buccaneers have arguably the league's premier 3-4 nose tackle in Vita Vea. At 6-foot-4 and 347 pounds, Vea is a space-eating road grader and a nearly immovable object at the center of the run defense. His bull rush can collapse the pocket on passing downs, and he has enough quickness, power, and athleticism to make plays despite being double-teamed on virtually every snap.

 We rarely see a player of that size become a factor as a pass rusher; Vea is an exception. He has 22 career sacks over six seasons, including 11 in the last two. Vea led the Buccaneers with six in 2022. If he could make a bigger impact in the tackle columns, he could be an every-week starter for IDP managers. There could be hope for him in that area. Vea has never reached 30 solo stops in a season, but he came close last year at 28-15-5 with 2 forced fumbles. The 43 combined stops were a career-best, as was his rank of 30th among tackles. Those numbers are good enough to make Vea rosterable as a third tackle in leagues starting two.

The player I am watching here is Calijah Kancey. The 19th overall pick in last year's draft, Kancey was injured in week one and missed the next three games. He returned after the team's week five bye and finished with 19-7-4 on the year. I see him as a breakout candidate in his second season.    

Kancey entered the league a bit undersized for the role of three-down tackle and with lingering concerns about his ability to hold up against the run. At 6-foot-1 and 281 pounds, his low center of gravity helps to win the leverage battle while quickness and determination make him a challenge for pass blockers, especially in one-on-one situations. He was productive at Pitt, with 64 combined tackles and 14.5 sacks over his 23 starts for the Panthers, and is a great fit in the team's aggressive, one-gap scheme.

Logan Hall rounds out the starting lineup, at least for now. The first pick in the second round in 2022, he had a disappointing rookie season, totaling 7-5-2 on 423 snaps as the third man in the outside tackle rotation. The organization knew he needed some work in the weight room before he would be ready to start. Hall put in that work, but it didn't exactly pay off in the box score in year two. He played 542 snaps over 16 games last season, recording 22 combined tackles and a couple of fumble recoveries. Hall's college numbers at Houston were not flashy either, so this might be who he is.

Greg Gaines and William Gholston are the top backups at the tackle positions. Both are solid veteran contributors who can hold down the fort if called upon, but there is no IDP value to be had with either of them.

• Edge Yaya Diaby – High upside sleeper
• Edge Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Marginal impact expected
• Edge Chris Braswell – Dynasty watch list
• Edge Anthony Nelson – Injury sleeper with a modest ceiling
• Edge Randy Gregory – The risks outweigh the upside
• DT Calijah Kancey – Breakout candidate
• DT Logan Hall – No impact
• DT Vita Vea – Late round DT3 target
• DT William Gholston – No impact
• DT Greg Gaines – No impact

Linebackers

The Buccaneers' inside linebacker positions give us value and uncertainty. Lavonte David has the complete, do-anything package, size, speed, range, cover skills, football IQ, etc. There was a time not so long ago when David was perennially among the fantasy game's top twelve linebackers. He remains a productive option for us, but at age 34, he is no longer an LB1. He is, however, an excellent option as a second starter.  

David topped 100 solo stops in each of his first three seasons and as recently as 2018, finished among the top five, going 94-24-3.5 with 3 turnovers. He ranked 11th in 2019, and 14th in 2020. His average of 11.9 points had him on pace for another top-ten in 2021 had he not missed five and a half games. David slipped to 27th in 2022 and rebounded to 17th last season.  

David has always produced quality tackle numbers. That hasn't changed as he turned in 86 solos and 48 assists in 2023. It is his big play contributions that have slipped. Over his first eight seasons, he totaled fewer than five turnovers twice, once as a rookie in 2012 and again in 2018. Over the last three campaigns, he has six combined with last year's single forced fumble tying his career low set in his rookie season. One plus is that the coaching staff has given David more opportunities to blitz over the last two seasons. His four sacks last year were his most since 2016.   

Some might see the departure of Devin White as a plus. This could be true but then White has not been much of a factor over the last couple of seasons anyway. I see David as a priority LB3 with a high floor and mid-LB2 ceiling. He gets a boost for dependability.   

Being stuck behind White and David on the depth chart, K.J. Britt has not seen much action as a pro. With White now in Philadelphia, Britt could finally have his chance to shine. Britt made two starts last season and was not exactly impressive, totaling seven tackles and seven assists on 120 plays in those two games. He has 28 career tackles with 26 assists and no splash plays.   

Three years of experience with the team gives Britt an advantage but he is not the only player eyeing the 2024 season as a chance to start. Second-year pro, SirVocea Dennis, will throw his name in the hat as well. He became a starter during his sophomore year at Pitt and was highly productive there. Over his two full seasons as the team's middle linebacker, Dennis totaled 176 combined tackles, 11 sacks, and 5 takeaways. He went 5-1 with a pass breakup in his lone start as a rookie. What was interesting is that the team did not have Britt as the third man at the position; rather, they had Britt behind White and Dennis backing up David. That tells us that even last year, Britt was not necessarily ahead on the depth chart. It's an interesting situation and will be near the top of the watch list when camps open.

There is no experienced depth behind the top three linebackers. The rest of the roster is filled with undrafted rookies and second-year players who have seen little or no action.

• ILB Lavonte David – Priority LB3 with high LB2 upside
• ILB K.J. Britt – Possible third starter but target as depth
• ILB SirVocea Dennis – Sleeper with a fairly high ceiling
• ILB J.J. Russell – No impact
• ILB Kalen DeLoach – No impact
• ILB Vi Jones – No impact

Defensive Backs

The Tampa Bay secondary has changed a lot over the last two seasons. Three of last year's week one starters are gone, but that is not necessarily a bad thing for the team. They are prepared for the changes and have good young players ready to step in.

The Buccaneers' safety position gave us the fantasy game's number-one defensive back in 2023. Going into the season, there were concerns that the shift to free safety could hurt Antoine Winfield's numbers. What happened was the exact opposite.

Winfield has been a playmaker from day one in the league. Over his first three seasons, he put up 13 turnovers and 9 sacks but never more than 64 solo stops or 30 assists. In 2023, Winfield exploded for 77-46-6 with 13 turnovers and 12 passes defended. He and Jessie Bates III were the only two defensive backs to average over 14 points per game. After a season like that, there is no place to go but down.

Considering that he and Bates outscored the number three defensive back by 20 points on the year, it's not like a little drop-off would kill his value. Winfield is as dependable as it gets for a safety and should be the first defensive back off the board. Even if he falls back to earth, he should be a quality DB1.

It is what is happening around him that could be an issue. The team signed Ryan Neal to play strong safety last year. That was a disaster. Ryan struggled and was eventually benched in favor of rookie corner Christian Izien. This offseason, the organization brought back Jordan Whitehead, who spent the last two years with the Jets.

Whitehead was the Buccaneers' fourth-round pick in 2018 and was a four-year starter in his first stint with the team. They know what they have in him so the safety positions are set. As for IDP value, Whitehead never produced more than marginal numbers while with Tampa Bay. His best came as a rookie in 2018, at 61-16-0 and he has 8 turnovers in four seasons. The addition is a plus for the Buccaneers but Whitehead is not likely to have any impact in fantasy circles.

There is a reason the team let Whitehead walk after the 2021 season. He was a dependable starter for the team but was not a difference-maker. He returned on a two-year deal, which gives the team time to decide if third-round rookie Tykee Smith can be a long-term solution. Smith worked as a box safety/nickel linebacker at Georgia, putting up 70 total stops with 2 sacks, and 4 interceptions as a senior. He could get a look in a similar role in Tampa Bay.

Last year's week one lineup had Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean on the outside, with rookie Christian Izien working the slot in sub-packages. Izien ended up playing safety for much of the year, and Zyon McCollum made eleven starts at corner, mostly while covering for injuries. With Davis gone, McCollum and Dean are the expected starters at corner, with Izien going back to the nickel role.

Dean is a good NFL corner but has little to offer IDP managers. He had 51 solo tackles in 2020 but has not exceeded 46 in any of his other four seasons. He has not seen double-digit pass breakups since his rookie year (2019) and has no more than two turnovers in any season. That does not mean there are no Tampa Bay corners worth drafting.

With what seemed like a weekly shuffle to field a healthy lineup last year, it is hard to get a good read on the fantasy potential of these guys. What we do know is that Davis consistently put up CB2 numbers when he was healthy, and McCollum was 49-19-0 with 9 passes defended and 2 turnovers on about 70% of the snaps. If you are looking for a late/last-round flier at corner, McCollum might be your guy.

• FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – should be the first DB off the board
• SS Jordan Whitehead – Marginal value
• SS Tykee Smith – dynasty watchlist
• SS Kaevon Merriweather – No impact
• CB Jamel Dean – Marginal value
• CB Zyon McCollum – Sleeper with high CB2 potential
• CB Christian Izien – Injury sleeper
• CB Josh Hayes – No impact
• CB Tavierre Thomas – Injury sleeper at best
• CB Bryce Hall – Injury sleeper

That does it for part 24 of this year's pre-season offering. The AFC East is coming up next.  

Enjoy this article? Find more from John here.

Follow @Footballguys