Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 24: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Photo: USA Today Sports

The 2023 Buccaneers played good defense, especially versus the run. They were one of eight teams to allow less than four yards per carry while ranking fifth in yards and eighth in points on the ground. They ran a tight ship, with only the Vikings giving up fewer runs of 20+ yards.

At a glance, Tampa Bay's rank of 30th in passing yards is bad. It looks much better when we consider that they faced the sixth most pass attempts on the season. They would like to improve on the 7.5 yards per attempt, which ranked 25th, and only the Lions allowed more passes of 20+ yards. The team made up for those deficiencies by recording the twelfth-most turnovers, seventh-most sacks, and seventh-fewest points overall.

Usually, when a defense performs so well, they try to keep the band together. For a variety of reasons, the organization parted with four starters. The changes continued the team's youth movement and saved a chunk of cap space. Now we need to see how much they affect the unit's performance. Don't be surprised if the defense is even better in 2024.   

Defensive Linemen

Like every first-round pick in NFL history, Tryon came with high expectations. Like many before him, he has not yet lived up to them. His rookie season went about as expected. He was the third man in the edge rotation, sharing time with Jason Pierre-Paul. The rookie got plenty of playing time in that role and posted respectable numbers for a rookie, at 21-8-4. In the normal progression of things, his numbers should have improved substantially in year two. Unfortunately, the only number to go up was his snap count.

Tryon's third year was marginally better at 28-17-5 with a pair of turnovers, but he continues to be a disappointment. With Free agency looming at the end of the season, this could be his last opportunity to impress the Buccaneers or earn a fat free-agent contract elsewhere.   

Shaquil Barrett racked up 19 sacks in his first season with the Buccaneers in 2019. He never reached double-digits again. After totaling four and a half last year, Barrett was not invited back. That opens the door for last year's rookie standout, Yaya Diaby to take over as a starter.

Diaby opened his rookie campaign in a backup role, seeing about 35% of the snaps over the first eleven weeks. He turned heads with a four-tackle, two-sack performance on 35 snaps versus San Francisco in week eleven. Diaby never played less than half the snaps in a game the rest of the way, seeing over 60% in most of them. On 515 plays, he totaled 25-13-7.5 with 3 turnovers, leading the team in sacks. He was red-hot in the box scores down the stretch as well, going 20-9-7.5 over the final nine games.

It was a small sample but enough to create excitement for the Buccaneers and IDP managers. Diaby could see a couple hundred more snaps in his second season. If he can continue the same level of production as the second half of last season, Diaby will be an IDP factor. He is one of my favorite sleepers at the edge position and a player I am looking to get on my dynasty rosters as well.

The biggest concern with Diaby is the veteran depth on the team. Barrett led the position with 652 regular season snaps in 2023. The top four players all saw at least 409. With Anthony Nelson and free agent addition Randy Gregory or second-round pick Chris Braswell as the backups, we could get a similar rotation this year.

Nelson is a steady and consistent contributor who excels versus the run and is a decent pass rusher. The most productive of his five seasons with the team came in 2022. Barrett was injured that year and Nelson did a solid job, starting nine games in relief. His total of 26-20-5 with 3 forced fumbles and a recovery, gives us a pretty good idea of what to expect if one of the starters goes down. Nelson reached at least 13 fantasy points in four of the final seven games, falling short of 7 points once. He will never be a league winner for us but could be useful as an in-season pickup.

Gregory is a talented player with a lot of baggage and an unimpressive resume'. His seven years with Dallas were riddled with injuries, suspensions, and the general turmoil that comes with a perennial head case. Mixed in with all that were some good stretches of play and enough production to make him a tease for IDP managers. An uneventful 2022 season with Denver that saw Gregory play in only six games, followed by a benching and a mid-season trade to San Francisco last year. That leads Gregory to where he is now, in what could be his final opportunity at age 31.

Putting a finger on his potential is tough. Gregory has never produced more than 24 combined tackles in a season, but then he's never played a full season with a significant role. He has 22 career sacks with a personal best of six that he's reached twice. He has twelve career turnovers with five of them coming in one season (2021) with the Cowboys. We'll call him an injury sleeper due to the upside.

Gregory will compete for playing time with the rookie. Chris Braswell played just over 1200 snaps during his three years at Alabama. Braswell is young and raw but could be molded to take over for Tryon at some point. There is room for improvement in all aspects of his game. Braswell needs to add muscle and play with better technique as a point-of-attack run defender and needs to refine and add to his arsenal as a pass rusher. He has the frame and physical tools to succeed with a year or two of hard work and good coaching.

The Buccaneers have arguably the league's premier 3-4 nose tackle in Vita Vea. At 6-foot-4 and 347 pounds, Vea is a space-eating road grader and a nearly immovable object at the center of the run defense. His bull rush can collapse the pocket on passing downs, and he has enough quickness, power, and athleticism to make plays despite being double-teamed on virtually every snap.

 We rarely see a player of that size become a factor as a pass rusher; Vea is an exception. He has 22 career sacks over six seasons, including 11 in the last two. Vea led the Buccaneers with six in 2022. If he could make a bigger impact in the tackle columns, he could be an every-week starter for IDP managers. There could be hope for him in that area. Vea has never reached 30 solo stops in a season, but he came close last year at 28-15-5 with 2 forced fumbles. The 43 combined stops were a career-best, as was his rank of 30th among tackles. Those numbers are good enough to make Vea rosterable as a third tackle in leagues starting two.

The player I am watching here is Calijah Kancey. The 19th overall pick in last year's draft, Kancey was injured in week one and missed the next three games. He returned after the team's week five bye and finished with 19-7-4 on the year. I see him as a breakout candidate in his second season.    

Kancey entered the league a bit undersized for the role of three-down tackle and with lingering concerns about his ability to hold up against the run. At 6-foot-1 and 281 pounds, his low center of gravity helps to win the leverage battle while quickness and determination make him a challenge for pass blockers, especially in one-on-one situations. He was productive at Pitt, with 64 combined tackles and 14.5 sacks over his 23 starts for the Panthers, and is a great fit in the team's aggressive, one-gap scheme.

Logan Hall rounds out the starting lineup, at least for now. The first pick in the second round in 2022, he had a disappointing rookie season, totaling 7-5-2 on 423 snaps as the third man in the outside tackle rotation. The organization knew he needed some work in the weight room before he would be ready to start. Hall put in that work, but it didn't exactly pay off in the box score in year two. He played 542 snaps over 16 games last season, recording 22 combined tackles and a couple of fumble recoveries. Hall's college numbers at Houston were not flashy either, so this might be who he is.

Greg Gaines and William Gholston are the top backups at the tackle positions. Both are solid veteran contributors who can hold down the fort if called upon, but there is no IDP value to be had with either of them.

• Edge Yaya Diaby – High upside sleeper
• Edge Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Marginal impact expected
• Edge Chris Braswell – Dynasty watch list
• Edge Anthony Nelson – Injury sleeper with a modest ceiling
• Edge Randy Gregory – The risks outweigh the upside
• DT Calijah Kancey – Breakout candidate
• DT Logan Hall – No impact
• DT Vita Vea – Late round DT3 target
• DT William Gholston – No impact
• DT Greg Gaines – No impact