Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 11: Pittsburgh Steelers

A look at the Steelers’ defense with an emphasis on individual defensive players and their fantasy value.

John Norton's Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 11: Pittsburgh Steelers John Norton Published 07/01/2024

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Great defense is a Steelers trademark. Pittsburgh is the birthplace of the 3-4 zone blitz, and they have been playing it for decades. If it's not broken, don't fix it. The team has a long and storied tradition of great pass rushers and explosive playmakers in a scheme designed to pressure and force mistakes. It is fun to watch as a fan, and it wins a lot of games.

The 2023 version of the Steel Curtain was not one of the all-time great Pittsburgh defenses, but it did not tarnish the reputation. The unit allowed the 19th most rush yards, the 17th most passing yards, and the fourth most plays of 20+ yards. On the other hand, they were eleventh in interceptions, eleventh in sacks, second in forced fumbles, seventh in recoveries, gave up the third-fewest points on the ground, and most importantly for their win column, the Steelers surrendered the sixth-fewest total points.

This unit had one glaring need going into the offseason, and they addressed it in both free agency and the draft. If the offense can find itself, this team could be in the thick of it come December.   

Defensive Linemen

The main ingredient in a successful 2024 for the Steelers, is a healthy T.J. Watt. There is no way to overstate how good this guy is. Maybe the best example is that he is the first player in history to lead the league in sacks three times. Indeed, if not for a partially torn pectoral in week one of 2022 that cost him seven games, we might be looking at four consecutive titles for Watt.

When it comes to the IDP game, Watt is on a tier of his own. Not only was he the top scorer at the position in 2023 but he outscored number two Khalil Mack by 19 points and number three Danielle Hunter by over 30. That's because Watt is much more than a one-trick pony.

On top of being the best pass rusher in the game, Watt is outstanding versus the run, can make plays in coverage, and forces a boatload of turnovers. He has at least 54 combined stops in every season of his seven-year career except 2022. To go with the 97.5 career sacks, Watt has 7 interceptions, 46 passes defended, 26 forced fumbles, 10 recoveries, and a score. Simply put, there is no argument against making him the first defensive player off the board.

Watt is the best but not the only Pittsburg defensive lineman with significant IDP value. Alex Highsmith was the team's third-round pick in 2020. Like most rookie edge defenders, he posted modest numbers in year one. In his second season, Highsmith began to show up. His sack totals remained modest at six, but the 46 solo stops and 28 assists were enough to put him on the IDP radar. Even without the help of Watt for much of the season, Highsmith broke out in 2022. With 62 combined tackles, 14 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles, he was top-ten among edge defenders that season.

Highsmith's production slipped a little in 2023. His tackle totals were down slightly at 57 combined and his sack total fell by half to seven. Four turnovers, three batted passes, and a touchdown were enough to keep him inside the top 20. The 14-sack season could prove to be a career outlier but the rest of Highsmith's numbers have been very consistent, making him a good second starter or excellent depth with a high ceiling.

The organization usually brings in a veteran free agent to provide depth behind Watt and Highsmith. In 2021 it was Melvin Ingram III, In 2022, Malik Reed, and last year Marcus Golden. They made no such investment this offseason which could be a sign of confidence in last year's fourth-round pick, Nick Herbig.

Herbig saw limited action as a rookie, getting on the field for 211 plays, but he made the most of the chances with 27 tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 turnovers. Herbig shared the third-man role with Golden a year ago. This season he could have it all to himself, which could mean upward of 500 snaps. At the very least, Herbig is the name to know in the event of an injury to Watt or Highsmith.  

Cameron Heyward has thirteen NFL seasons under his belt. He has been incredibly consistent throughout his career but two of his most productive seasons have come in the last three. At age 32 in 2021, he piled up 89 combined tackles, 10 sacks, 3 turnovers, and 9 batted passes to be the fantasy game's top tackle. For an encore at age 33, he posted 74 total stops with 10 sacks, 2 turnovers, and 4 batted passes to finish second.

Heyward suffered a groin injury early in week one last year, missing the next six games while recovering from surgery. He got back on the field around mid-season but was not himself the rest of the way. At age 35 he is looking for a bounceback and a payday.

Heyward has asked for an extension and skipped some early workouts to make his point. He expects to play beyond 2024, though it remains to be seen if the Steelers are willing to pay him beyond this year. If he can return to form, they had better.  

Larry Ogunjobi and second-year man Keeanu Benton fill out the rest of the starting lineup at the first level. Ogunjobi has bounced around the league a bit in recent years, largely because he has trouble staying healthy. He is an athletic big man who played well at the three-technique for the Browns before the rash of annoying minor injuries started. Ogunjobi posted a career-best of seven sacks from that same position with the Bengals in 2021.

Two seasons with the Steelers have been fairly quiet for Ogunjobi. He is a good scheme fit and has been healthy but 45 combined stops and 2 sacks are not enough to earn a roster spot in most IDP leagues. Those are his averages over the last two seasons.

Benton earned an even split of the playing time at nose tackle as a rookie last year, with Montravius Adams getting the other half of the snaps. The rookie out-played and out-produced Adams, which could mean a bigger slice of the pie in year two. Benton is a space-eating anchor in the middle for the Steelers. He finished 17-19-1 on just over 500 opportunities and is an important piece of the puzzle for his team. Even a couple hundred more snaps, however, are not likely to make him worth a roster spot on ours.

  • Edge T.J. Watt – Watt is the elite tier on the Edge and has first defender drafted value
  • Edge Alex Highsmith – Priority solid Edge2 or excellent depth with top-twelve upside
  • Edge Nick Herbig – Injury sleeper with good long-term potential
  • DT Cameron Heyward – Elite tier DT1 if fully healthy, but he's 35 years old
  • DT Larry Ogunjobi – Marginal impact
  • NT Keeanu Benton – No grand expectations
  • DT DeMarvin Leal – No impact
  • NT Montravius Adams – No impact
  • DT Logan Lee – Developmental rookie

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Linebackers

The Steelers have been searching for the right player, or combination of players, at inside linebacker since the injury to Ryan Shazier in 2017. The extensive list of guys getting shots at the job include Jon Bostic, Mark Barron, Robert Spillane, Devin Bush, Avery Williamson, Vince Williams, Joe Schobert, Myles Jack, Kwon Alexander, Cole Holcomb, and Elandon Roberts.

The organization thought the search was over when they picked Bush in the first round in 2019. After a strong rookie campaign, he was injured in his second season and was never the same. Spillane did a good job for a while but apparently was not good enough. He was allowed to walk after the 2022 season. Pittsburgh signed Holcomb and Roberts last year, but their run of bad luck continued. They learned why Roberts had never secured a full-time role with the Patriots or Dolphins, and Holcomb suffered a gruesome knee injury in week eight.

They went back to the free agent well this year, signing Patrick Queen. Then the Steelers picked up a potential third-round steal in Peyton Wilson, in the draft. So here is where we stand with training camp approaching.

Queen is all but assured the lead role. The former first-round pick of division rival Baltimore in 2020 is a proven commodity. He comes with four years of starting experience, working on all three downs over most of that time. He is fast, has good cover skills, is a dependable physical tackler, and makes a fair number of splash plays. Queen can get home on the blitz, which is important for a Steelers linebacker. He has at least two sacks in each of his four years with the Ravens and a total of 13 over his young career. Another plus for the Steelers is that Queen will be 25 in August and has a lot of tread on the tires.

Holcomb will have the first shot at the other inside backer job. It has been a long time since Pittsburgh fielded two full-time inside linebackers, so even if he is healthy, Holcomb is likely relegated to a 65 or 70% play share. He has the potential to be a fantasy factor and, according to reports, is said to be ahead of schedule in his rehab and expected to be ready for the start of camp. For anyone who saw his injury, that might be hard to believe.

 The organization rolled the dice on Payton Wilson in the third round. The gamble has nothing to do with skill set or talent and everything to do with a long history of injuries. During his college career at North Carolina State, he suffered two ACL injuries and had shoulder surgery. Wilson has no ACL in one of his knees and questions remain about the shoulder after the surgery that was described as “not a great operation”. Wilson will not be the first player without an ACL to work for the team. Steeler greats Greg Lloyd and Hines Ward both played without one.

If Wilson can stay healthy, the Steelers might have the steal of the draft. After his senior season in 2023, he won the Butkus Award for the best linebacker in college football, and the Chuch Bednarik Award which is given to the college game's best defensive player. In 23 games over the last two years, Wilson has 220 total tackles, 10.5 sacks, and 7 turnovers. He is certainly worth the price of a late-round pick in redrafts or a third in dynasty rookie drafts. I have a feeling that once this young man gets on the field, they will not be able to get him off of it unless he is carried off.     

  • ILB Patrick Queen – High floor LB2 with LB1 upside
  • ILB Cole Holcomb – Stock is way down unless proven otherwise in camp
  • ILB Peyton Wilson – High upside rookie with considerable injury risk
  • ILB Elandon Robert – No impact expected
  • ILB Mark Robinson – Special teams contributor

Defensive Backs

The Pittsburgh secondary gave up a lot of yards and too many big plays last year. That generally leads to new faces in the lineup, and this situation is no exception. Three of the team's top four corners from 2023 are gone, and there could be a new starter at strong safety. In the spots vacated by Patrick Peterson, Levi Wallace, and Chandon Sullivan, the Steelers now have Donte Jackson, Cameron Sutton, and everyone's favorite, a player to be named later.

Jackson spent his first five seasons as a starter for the Panthers. On the field, he is a smallish, speedy cover man with good ball skills and durability issues. Jackson had a strong first year in IDP terms, with 72 total stops, 5 turnovers, and 9 pass breakups. He has not come close to that statistical production since. He should be an upgrade over Peterson, who looked old last year, but Jackson will not be an IDP factor.

For that matter, none of the Steelers corners can be counted on as IDP contributors. Joey Porter Jr. starts opposite Jackson. He has good size for a corner but is not known for being physical. Porter will make plays in the run game but seems fine with letting someone else have those stats. He is, however, solid in coverage with the speed to cover deep. The Steelers will expect more from him in his second season, but his play in 2023 provides little optimism for his IDP value.

Cameron Sutton spent his first six seasons with the Steelers before heading to Detroit in 2023. His stay there was short, probably by mutual consent. He is not going to blossom in his seventh season but is a steady contributor who knows the Steelers system.

If there is fantasy value to be found in this secondary, it is all but certain to come from Minkah Fitzpatrick, but how safe is it to ride into the season with him as our top safety? Fitzpatrick is a playmaker with 27 takeaways over six seasons. He was the fantasy game's second-ranked defensive back in 2021. That season, he tallied 84 solo stops, 39 assists, 4 turnovers, and 8 passes defended. The problem is that Fitzpatrick's next-best tackle production was 60 solos and 20 assists in 2020. He had 56 solo stops in 2022, and when he was supposed to bounce back last year, Fitzpatrick missed seven games with hamstring and knee injuries. The ability and potential are there, but the risk is enough to push him down to at least the second starter range and probably further.  

DeShon Elliott is playing for his fourth team in four years. That speaks volumes about what those teams saw in him. Elliott should see playing time as at least the third safety and could push Damontae Kazee for the starting job. Chances are, we will see another time-share situation like the one between Kazee and Keanu Neal last year.  

  • FS Minkah Fitzpatrick – Target as a mid-range second starter with both risk and upside
  • SS DeShon Elliott – No grand expectation
  • SS Damontae Kazee – Possible depth if he wins the job outright
  • CB Donte Jackson – Marginal fantasy impact
  • CB Joey Porter II – No impact anticipated
  • CB Cameron Sutton – No impact
  • CB Josiah Scott  – No impact
  • CB Ryan Watts – Developmental rookie

Next time, we wrap up the AFC North with the Ravens     

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