The Jets went 7-9 last year, but how good could they have been if they had not lost Aaron Rodgers in week one? Let’s just say that the defense did its job. New York gave up a lot of yards on the ground, but that was only because they faced the third-highest rush attempts. Their 4.1 yards per carry was tied for tenth, and they ranked in the top half of the league in runs of 20+ yards and rushing touchdowns.
While the run defense was above average, the Jets’ pass defense was downright stingy. Two teams gave up fewer yards, they ranked fourth in yards per attempt, and third in completion percentage. Only three teams allowed fewer points through the air and New York surrendered the fewest pass plays of 20+ yards. The team got it done in the splash play columns as well. Their 48 sacks tied for seventh and they forced the eighth most turnovers.
As would be expected on the heels of such a performance, the organization put more focus on offensive personnel in the offseason. They added one significant free agent in edge defender Haason Reddick, along with a handful of guys who will contribute. New York’s only draft picks on the defensive side were a pair of third-day defensive backs. There were a few defections, but none of the players who left were hard to replace. All in all, the Jets are poised for another strong season defensively.
Defensive Linemen
The Jets have never been shy about spending early draft picks on defensive linemen. They have taken three in the first round over the last six drafts. It started with tackle Quinnen Williams at third overall in 2019. It was a big investment, and Williams has been worth every bit of it.
Williams is an active and mobile big man who does an excellent job of getting off blocks to make plays in tight spaces. He also has enough range and quickness to make plays outside the tackle box. Most guys that are north of 300 pounds rely heavily on the bull rush in passing situations. Williams can bullrush with the best of them, but he’s not a one-trick pony.
It matters not if you look at Williams from the NFL perspective or as an IDP manager, he is an elite player either way. On the field, he is a cornerstone of a young and exciting defense. In the box scores, he is an elite-tier DT1. Williams commands double teams on virtually every snap yet still manages to be highly productive on the stat sheets.
His prowess as a pass rusher showed up in 2020 and 2021 when Williams kicked in seven and six sacks, respectively. In 2022, he exploded twelve. His sack production crashed back to earth at five in 2023, but three turnovers and career-highs in tackles and assists helped Williams to his fourth consecutive top-twelve ranking, including three in the top-ten.
The twelve-sack season could remain a career outlier, but one thing we can count on is strong tackle totals. He has at least 33 solo stops and at least 51 combined in each of the last four seasons, with last year's 39-23 representing career marks in both columns. He is the foundation of the Jets' defense and, at age 26, is in the prime of his career.
Williams was a mainstay in the lineup last year, logging nearly 800 snaps. The other tackle position was more of a revolving door, with Solomon Thomas and Quinton Jefferson splitting the bulk of the playing time while several other guys contributed. Thomas was the next most productive, totaling 15-15-5 on 484 plays. Jefferson is gone, but unless someone steps up big and forces the coaching staff to leave them on the field, the only thing likely to change in 2024 are the names.
The one guy with the potential to force their hand is Javon Kinlaw. New York added the 49ers' 2020 first-round pick, along with former Cardinals starter Leki Fotu to fill the void. Kinlaw came into the league with the expectation he would replace DeForest Buckner in San Francisco. He battled injuries in 2021 and 2022, playing in 13 games over those two seasons combined. Last year was his best to date at 14-11-3.5, but it was not good enough to keep him in San Francisco. Kinlaw is a talented young man with a skill set that should make him a great fit in the Jets penetrating scheme. He could benefit greatly from the fresh start and is a watchlist player with the potential to break out.
New York had a pair of young first-round picks on the outside last season. Jermain Johnson played sparingly as a rookie in 2022, going 18-11-2 on 312 plays. Everything more than doubled for him in year two. Johnson emerged not only as a starter but the lead man at the position. His 747 snaps were over 250 more than any other edge on the team.
At 36-19-7.5 with 3 turnovers, 7 batted passes, and a touchdown, Johnson was the fantasy game’s 20th edge defender based on overall numbers. His value to fantasy managers was tainted by inconsistency, though. Johnson put up 13 or more points in four games and 6 or fewer points in six games.
Johnson is long and lanky with a huge wingspan and the frame to add muscle without affecting his speed or explosion. He was considered raw but talented entering the league. He started for one season while at Florida State but that one season was impressive. Considering the talent, upside, and the major leap in production between his first and second seasons, Johnson is on a trajectory for a breakout in 2024. At worst, he is a good option as the third edge on our rosters.
The team picked Michael Clemons three rounds after Johnson in 2022. They played had an equal number of opportunities as rookies and produced similar numbers. The organization had high hopes that Clemons would be the bookend, but his year two was nothing like Johnson's. Clemons went the wrong way, seeing a few more snaps but far less production. Instead of Clemons, it was Bryce Huff who stepped up with a team-leading ten sacks.
The Jets used last year’s first-round pick on Will McDonald IV, who is an undersized third-down specialist with a way to go before earning a big role. The organization still has hope for its young players. However, with Aaron Rogers closing in on the end of his career and the window closing soon for the team, they were unwilling to be patient. New York ponied up the money and signed Haason Reddick to start opposite Johnson.
Reddick is a proven pass rusher with double-digit sacks in four straight seasons and a career-best of 16 in 2022. He has a knack for forcing turnovers as well. Reddick’s resume’ includes 14 forced fumbles and 4 recoveries since 2020. The only downside for IDP managers is Reddick’s steadily shrinking tackle production. He had 51 solos in 2018. That number has fallen each year since, dipping below 30 in 2023.
The Jets scheme is similar to the one Reddick played in when he racked up 16 sacks for the Eagles. Another plus is that defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is not afraid to keep his edge players on the field if there is a drop-off to the next guy on the depth chart. That could mean upwards of 800 snaps for Johnson and Reddick. He could continue to be light in the tackle department, but Reddick is a safe bet for double-digit sacks and three or four turnovers.
- Edge Jermaine Johnson – Target as a strong edge3 with breakout upside
- Edge Haason Reddick – Priority edge3 with upside and added value in big-play formats
- Edge Michael Clemons – Injury sleeper at best
- Edge Will McDonald – Pass rush specialist with marginal value
- DT Quinnen Williams – Elite DT1 or priority DL2
- DT Solomon Thomas – No impact
- DT Javon Kinlaw – Deep sleeper to keep an eye on
- DT Leki Fotu – No impact
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Linebackers
There is no guesswork with the Jets linebackers. Since Ulbrich took over as the defensive coordinator in 2021, they have fielded two roughly 95% of the time. C.J. Mosley has been the leader and centerpiece of the unit, playing every snap in most games.
Mosley signed with the Jets in 2019 and promptly missed most of the season with an injury. He sat out 2020 on a COVID exemption but has been good to go for every game since. Mosley turned 32 in June but has only played eight seasons, so the mileage is fairly low.
In his first two full seasons with the Jets, Mosley was a beast. His two-year totals were 205 solos, 121 assists, 3 sacks, 4 turnovers, and 9 pass breakups. He was the number five linebacker in 2022 after finishing at six in 2021. His role seemed consistent last season, but Mosley’s numbers slipped down the stretch. He reached double-digits in ten of the first eleven games but only once in the final six. Still, his tally of 81-71-0 with 5 turnovers and 7 passes defended was enough to land just outside the top twelve.
There was no noticeable change in his role, and Mosley continued to play every snap. So maybe his late-season decline was a fluke. In March, he was extended through the 2025 season, so the Jets have no concerns. The slide is enough to leave Mosley short of the elite tier, but Mosley is a safe target as a low-end LB1.
Quincy Williams has been the other starter for the last three seasons. He had his first shot at a starting job as a rookie with the Jaguars in 2019. That did not go well. Williams was benched after a few games and barely saw the field in year two. He escaped Jacksonville for New York in 2021 and has been a starter ever since.
Williams logged about 70% of the playing time in 2021 and 2022. Over those two seasons, he had five sacks and four forced fumbles to go along with 146 solo tackles and 70 assists. There was week-to-week inconsistency but overall, he was a solid LB4 for us.
In 2023, the Jets elected to go with Williams as a full-time compliment to Mosley. Williams played at least 93% of the snaps in fifteen contests, seeing less than 84% once. The result was 95 tackles, 44 assists, 2 sacks, 4 turnovers, and a whopping 10 passes defended. He even managed to outscore Mosley and slip into the top ten for the first time. If Williams continues to see 95% of the playing time each week, it may not be his last. With no one on the roster to take snaps away, there is no reason to expect Williams to be less than a dependable LB2 in 2024.
An injury to either starter could be a serious problem for the Jets. Jamien Sherwood is the next man up. He is a converted safety who gets a few snaps here and there as a weak side backer when the team fields three. At 216 pounds, he might not be built for an every-down role. After Sherwood and journeyman backup Chazz Surratt, the Jets have a handful of young, undrafted players battling to make the team as special teams contributors.
- MLB C.J. Mosley – Dependable LB1
- SLB Quincy Williams – Solid LB2 with top-twelve upside
- WLB Jamien Sherwood – Marginal value expected
- MLB Chazz Surratt – No impact expected
Defensive Backs
With the signing of D.J. Reed and the selection of Sauce Gardner in round one of the draft, the Jets went from zero to hero at the corner positions in 2022. They continued to reap the benefits of those decisions last season. Gardner and Reed make an interesting duo with contrasting play styles.
Even as a rookie, it was not hard to see that Gardner would be special. In season one, he was somewhat of an IDP factor as well. With 75 combined tackles, 2 interceptions, and 20 passes defended, Gardner made the top fifteen at corner. Many IDP managers and prognosticators saw that as a sign of big things to come, while I warned that it was just the opposite.
This is the rookie corner rule at its purest. As a rookie thrown into the starting lineup, teams tested him often. He passed, breaking up 20 passes and picking off two while allowing one of the lowest completion percentages in the league.
Once that player proves himself and has a year of experience, those same offenses will go out of their way to keep from throwing in his direction. The result for Gardner was a modest 41-16-0 with a forced fumble, zero interceptions, and 11 pass breakups for a rank of CB50 in 2023. This was not a fluke. The guy turns 23 in August, so he is going to get even better on the field. Gardner is a great player for his team, but don’t waste a roster spot on yours.
Opponents have to throw somewhere, so don’t overlook Reed. His style is a little different in that he tends to give up more completions but does a good job of getting the receiver on the ground quickly. Reed put up a solid (for a corner) 61-20-0 with three turnovers and ten pass breakups for Seattle in 2021. Those numbers got him inside the top 20.
Reed’s production over his two seasons with the Jets has been remarkably consistent as well. He now boasts three consecutive campaigns with at least 61 solos, 14 assists two turnovers, and 9 passes defended and a rank inside the top 25. He doesn't make many big plays and is no threat to break the top ten, but most managers would be tickled with a CB2 that consistently gives us over eight points per week.
Michael Carter has settled in as the team’s nickel corner. He put up borderline useful totals of 50-13-0 with two picks and nine passes defended in 2022 and was on pace for similar totals had he not missed some time last year. He should see the same role and maybe a little bump in production this year, but probably not enough to be roster-worthy unless one of the starters is injured.
New York has good veteran depth in Brandon Echols and free agent addition Isaiah Oliver, but neither is expected to crack the starting lineup. If everyone remains healthy, they will compete for sub-package snaps.
The Jets have an interesting situation at safety. Tony Adams made the team as an undrafted rookie in 2022, seeing virtually all his playing time on special teams. He seemed to come from nowhere to land the starting job at free safety in 2023. His production appears modest at 54-28-0 with 3 interceptions and 5 passes defended. They would look better had he not missed two games. His role as the deep safety is not IDP-friendly. With an average of 8.8 points per game, Adams was outside the realm of usefulness in most leagues. There is no reason to expect more in 2024.
Chuck Clark is a different story. He signed with the Jets last offseason, after six years with the Ravens.He was was a four-year starter with Baltimore and was set to be the starting strong safety for New York until suffering a torn ACL during offseason workouts. Clark is back in the saddle for 2024 and looking to get on track.
Clark never made much of a splash in IDP circles during his time in Baltimore. His best production came in 2022 when he finished 61-40-0 with a couple of turnovers and a rank of 38th. Considering the Ravens went over a decade without giving us a top-20 safety, it’s hard to say if Clark’s modest production was on him or just a reflection of the situation/scheme.
What we do know is that Clark is a hard-hitting strong safety with some big play potential. Over his last four seasons, Clark has 13 turnovers, 3.5 sacks, and 20 passes defended. Playing behind one of the better linebacker tandems in the league is not going to help, but Clark could surprise. He is worth a late/last-round shot as depth with upside.
Depth at safety could be an issue for New York. Astyn Davis is the only safety on the roster to take snaps on defense in 2023. The rest of the depth chart consists of undrafted free agents and third-day draft picks with no experience.
- SS Chuck Clark – Sleeper with a DB3 ceiling
- FS Tony Adams – Marginal value expected
- SS Astyn Davis – No impact
- FS Jaylen Key – Developmental rookie
- CB Sauce Gardner – His contribution on the field will not be reflected in stats
- CB D.J. Reed – CB3 floor with a good CB2 upside
- CB Michael Carter II – Slot corner who could see time at safety in a pinch
- CB Brandon Echols – No impact
- CB Isaiah Oliver – Should compete for playing time in the slot
That does it for the Jets. We head down the back stretch with the Patriots next
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