Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 22: New Orleans Saints

The Saints usually play good defense and last year was no exception. They gave up a lot of yards on the ground and their 34 sacks were near the bottom of the league. Other than that, it is hard to find a bad statistic. Three teams allowed fewer rushing scores and seven gave up fewer points overall. The pass defense ranked ninth and was one of two teams to keep opponents under a 60% completion rate. They even created the fourth most turnovers.

Despite their strong performance, New Orleans did not stand pat this offseason. In free agency, they added Chase Young to boost the sagging pass rush and three linebackers including potential starter Willie Gay Jr. The draft brought second-round corner Kool-Aid McKinstry, another linebacker in round five, and depth for the interior line in round six.

A healthy Young would be a big plus. Even if none of the other additions find their way into the starting lineup, they give the Saints much-improved depth. If the offense does its part, this should be a playoff contender.  

Defensive Linemen

The Saints have never been shy about using early-round draft capital on the defensive line. Since 2011, when they took Cameron Jordan, they have used five first-round picks on those positions. It has paid dividends as the 2022 season marked their sixth consecutive with at least 42 sacks. That streak was broken in 2023, and it is not hard to figure out why.

In his 13th season, at age 34, Jordan may have hit the wall. For the first time since his rookie season in 2011, he fell short of 25 solo tackles and had fewer than 7 sacks. At 20-23-2, it was by far his lowest production as a starter. Yes, he dealt with a sore back early in the year. And yes, he played much of the season on a sore ankle. It just feels like there is more to it than that.

Jordan is signed through the 2025 season so he is not likely to retire. Chances are, the organization will let him play out his contract, but we should not be surprised if his role is reduced over the next two seasons. Once he has fully recovered from off-season ankle surgery, Jordan should bounce back but his days as an every-week IDP starter are probably over, especially if Young is ready to go in September.

Chase Young had a great rookie season, totaling 43 combined tackles, 7 sacks, 7 turnovers, 4 batted passes, and a score. Since that time, his career has been more about injuries than football. A serious knee injury cut his 2021 short and cost Young most of 2022. He managed a career-best of 7.5 sacks in 2023 but is now fighting a neck injury that started with a stinger before last season began. In mid-June, Young got a positive report on his latest post-surgery checkup, but his availability for the beginning of the season remains in question.

They will never say it out loud, but the organization has been preparing for life after Jordan over the last few seasons. They finally gave up on Marcus Davenport but picked Payton Turner in round one in 2021 and Isaiah Foskey in round two last year. This spring, it was Young in free agency. Ironically, the guy they turned to as the starter opposite Jordan last year was former undrafted free agent Carl Granderson.

Granderson played well in spot duty in 2020 and 2021, going 22-17-8 with a pair of forced fumbles in limited action. He opened the 2022 season as the third man behind Jordan and Davenport, but when Davenport was banged up again, missing weeks ten and eleven, Granderson stole the spotlight. He went on to see more playing time than Davenport in seven of the final eight games. Granderson finished at 30-23-5.5 but more importantly, won the trust of his coaches.

Granderson was the week one starter in 2023. He went on to lead the team's defensive linemen in snaps and tackles and led the Saints in sacks. At 44-35-8.5 with a couple of turnovers, Granderson was the fantasy game's eleventh-ranked edge defender on the season. He is an excellent three-down player who excels versus the run and is well above average as a pass rusher.

Thanks largely to the strong tackle numbers, Granderson's best selling point is consistency. He reached double-digit points eleven times in 2023. He will not win any sack titles and is unlikely to ever land among the top five, but he should consistently hover around double-digit sacks and be a quality Edge1 for the next several years.

The Saints selected Payton Turner 28th overall in 2021. So far, their return on investment has been horrible. He played 143 snaps as a rookie before landing on IR with a shoulder injury. He played 171 snaps in 2022, missing several games with a variety of health issues. Year three was supposed to be his breakout season. Instead, Turner suffered a turf toe injury in week one and was not back on the field until week 18. There is a ton of potential here, but we are now hearing whispers that he could be on the roster bubble heading into camp.

New Orleans is on a run of bad luck with early-round edge defenders. They selected Isaiah Foskey in round two last year. The injury to Turner gave him a chance to get on the field as a rookie, but a quad injury took that away for several games. Turner and Foskey are the players the team would like to see step up. Veteran Tanoh Kpassagnon is the one they can rely on. He lacks pass-rush prowess but is a good run defender with starting experience who can give the team quality snaps when needed.  

It has been a long time since New Orleans last gave us a great IDP option at the tackle position. David Onyemata was a borderline second starter at times. When he followed coach Nielsen to Atlanta, Nathan Shepherd, Khalen Saunders, Malcolm Roach, and first-round rookie Bryan Bresee were left in the tackle rotation.

Between them, the four tackles put up 78 solo stops, with 95 assists and 8 sacks. The problem was that playing time and production were spread too thin for anyone to have IDP value. Shepherd, Saunders, and Bresee all logged between 523 and 594 snaps. Roach would have totaled about 350 had he not missed five games. As a result, Shepherd was the highest-producing fantasy option, ranking 35th among tackles.

This, however, does not necessarily mean there is no one of interest here in 2024. Breese has the potential to step up in his second season. He is tall at 6-foot-5 and thick at 298 pounds but is quick and athletic for his size. Bresee is relentless from snap to whistle and is hard to move even with double teams. He was quiet in the tackle columns as a rookie, totaling 23 combined stops, but was third on the team with 4.5 sacks. If the coaches continue the same kind of rotation and no one sees more than 600 snaps, it will not matter how good the players are. If they give Bresee more chances, he could put up decent numbers.

The decision on playing time could come down to how well Khristian Boyd plays. If he steps up, the sixth-round rookie could replace the departed Malcolm Roach and eat up about 20% of the snaps. If he is not ready, the team could flip to a three-man rotation, giving Bresee and Shepherd enough opportunities to be relevant.    

• DE Cameron Jordan – Not the player he once was
• DE Carl Granderson – Priority Edge2 with low-end Edge1 upside
• DE Chase Young – Risky option but worth a late-round pick for the upside
• DE Payton Turner – Must show us something first
• DE Isaiah Foskey – Worth keeping an eye on
• DE Tanoh Kpassagnon – No impact
• DT Nathan Shepherd – Possible depth
• DT Bryan Bresee – Sleeper with DT3 ceiling
• DT Khalen Saunders – No impact
• DT Khristian Boyd – No impact

Linebackers

It was supposed to be his time to shine. Instead, 2023 saw Pete Werner slump to the point that he was arguably the biggest, non-injury bust in the IDP game. Before a week nine ankle injury in 2022, Werner was the number thirteen linebacker with an average of 12.8 points per game. He was on pace for 113-42-0, 4 turnovers, and 6 passes defended. Adding fuel to the fire, he was seen during last year's OTAs, working in sub-packages that he did not participate in the previous year. Demario Davis was 34 years old and entering the final year of his contract, so the stars were aligning for Werner to take over. What happened in 2023 is something we are still trying to figure out.

In 16 games last year, Werner totaled 61-33-0.5 with 3 turnovers. His average of 8.2 points per game was 58th at the position. Adding insult to injury, the Saints extended the now 35-year-old Davis through the 2025 season. Werner played at least 94% of the snaps in nine of the first eleven games last season. After week twelve, he exceeded 77% once. It was a complete collapse that left many of us in a bad spot.

So where does Werner go in 2024? The potential is still there and the first half of 2022 is still in our memories. On the other hand, the team signed free-agent linebackers Willie Gay Jr, Monty Rice, and Khaleke Hudson. It just so happens that Gay has been a starting weak-side backer for most of the last four seasons.

We need more information to figure this one out. Unfortunately, we are probably not going to get it until at least the pre-season. For now, I would say this: if you are a dynasty manager with Werner on your roster, I would not be in too big a hurry to dump him. If you are a re-draft manager picking your team, I would not be in too big a hurry to draft him.      

At the end of the 2022 season, it looked like Davis was on his way out. The best production of his career came in 2017 when he went 97-36-4.5 with a fumble recovery, finishing seventh among linebackers. The only other top twelve of his career was in 2019. Since that time, his production had been on a steady decline. In 2019 he had 87 solo stops, in 2020 it was 74, then 69. In 2022 it fell to 54. Davis managed a career-best seven sacks in 2022 but his tackle totals had fallen so far that he still landed outside the top 30.

Davis has long been among the most underrated linebackers in the league. He is dependable in all facets of the game, but his leadership quality may be his biggest contribution to the team. He rebounded strongly last year, putting up his best totals since 2019. At 74-47-6.5, with a pair of turnovers and four passes defended, he returned to the top 20. Where he goes from there is anyone's guess. Pick him up as quality depth and cross your fingers that you get more.  

The addition of Gay is interesting. He rarely held an every-down role and was never more than a marginal IDP factor while with the Chiefs, but he was a starter. At 243 pounds, Gay is big by today's standards. He is fast, has good cover skills, and will contribute to the big play columns. In four seasons with Kansas City, he recorded 10 turnovers, 4 sacks, and 19 pass breakups. I don't see him replacing Werner but stranger things have happened. It is a situation we need to pay close attention to this summer.

Rookie third-day pick Jaylan Ford will make a living on special teams to start his career, but he could eventually get a look at middle linebacker. He has average speed and instincts but is a physical run defender, is good in coverage, and filled the stat sheet as a two-year starter for Texas. In 27 games over the last two seasons, Ford totaled 220 combined tackles, 3 sacks, 6 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, and 3 recoveries.   

• MLB Demario Davis – Target as an LB4 and hope for a repeat of last year's numbers
• WLB Pete Werner – High upside makes him worth a shot at the end of your draft
• WLB Willie Gay – Watchlist sleeper
• MLB Jaylan Ford – Dynasty deep sleeper
• SLB Monty Rice – No impact
• SLB Nephi Sewell – Special teams contributor

Defensive Backs

The Saints are loaded with talent and fantasy value at the corner position. The only concern for IDP managers is that they might have too many good players. However, from the team's perspective, it is easy to see why they added another one early in this year's draft.

In seven-year veteran Marshon Lattimore, New Orleans has one of the league's elite at the position. The concern is that he has missed at least one game in every season since 2018, including 17 over the last two years. When healthy, there are few better than Lattimore. He can match up with all types of receivers and is a playmaker.

Most corners of his caliber are not fantasy-friendly. Lattimore is not a stud for fantasy managers, but he can be a good starter for us. He has reached 50 or more solo tackles in three seasons, has 24 career turnovers, and when healthy for at least 15 games, always reaches double-digits in passed defended. His most statistically productive year was 2021, That season Lattimore ranked eleventh among corners at 55-13 with 4 turnovers and 19 passes defended. He is not a must for our rosters but can provide good CB3 value with a little upside.

The best fantasy target here is Paulson Adebo. The 2021 third-round pick made his mark early, going 55-11 with 3 interceptions and 8 passes defended as a rookie. That was good enough for a rank of 22nd. He missed some time in 2022. In the ten games that he was healthy, Adebo averaged over five tackles and nine points per game. It was Adebo's 2023 season that put him in the fantasy spotlight. He missed two games early in the year but still managed to finish 60-16 with 8 turnovers and 18 passes defended. That was good enough for fifth among corners, while his average of 11.4 points per game ranked third. Few corners can be counted on for consistent production from year to year. Three years into his career, Adebo is looking like one of them.

The Saints run a nickel-base defense with three corners on the field more than 75% of the time on most weeks. In his second year as a pro, Alontae Taylor won the third corner job. Between that and all the games missed by Lattimore, Taylor played 950 snaps on the season, one more than Adebo. At 58-18-1 with 3 turnovers and 14 passes defended, Taylor finished in the CB3 range, ranking 28th.

With three good players ahead of him, second-round rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry could find playing time scarce for a while. He is a talented player who should be a long-term contributor to his team, but McKinstry's play style and college production suggest that he might not make much of an IDP impact even when it is his turn to start.

Tyrann Mathieu was an IDP star early in his career. He has a pair of top-20 finishes since 2018, including one with the Saints in 2022, but has been a little inconsistent. Last year was the second time in four seasons that Mathieu recorded 50 or fewer solo tackles. On the field, the twelve-year veteran remains one of the NFL's outstanding free safeties. He is dependable in all aspects, from deep coverage to run support, and will contribute significantly to the splash play columns. For IDP managers, he is a decent third safety with a little upside if it happens to be a good year.

The team's other safety job is in question entering camp. Many have Jordan Howden penciled in as the starter. I would not argue with that projection but would point out that Johnathan Abram was re-signed in the offseason. Abram played in nine games for the Saints last year, starting three. His first start was when Howden and Marcus Maye were out in week four. The other two were at the end of the season when Maye was gone, and Abram started ahead of a healthy Howden.

Between the three players that saw time at strong safety, the position produced 65 tackles, 41 assists, and 4 turnovers. Providing one guy wins the job outright and does not have to share time, Whoever starts here should be fantasy-relevant.    

• SS Johnathan Abram – Sleeper with second-starter potential
• SS Jordan Howden – potential third safety
• FS Tyrann Mathieu – Decent depth with a little upside
• SS Will Harris – No impact
• FS Ugo Amadi – No impact
• CB Marshon Lattimore – CB3 with matchup-based upside
• CB Paulson Adebo – Priority CB2 with top-five upside
• CB Alontae Taylor – Depth in leagues starting two corners
• CB Kool-Aid McKinstry – Rookie corner rule could be in play
• CB Rico Payton – No impact

That does it for part 22 of this year's pre-season offering. The Panthers are up next. 

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