The Patriots were not easy to run on in 2023. They allowed 3.3 yards per carry, which was the best in the league. Four teams gave up fewer runs of 20+ yards, and they were eleventh in rushing touchdowns. The pass defense was not bad, either. New England was seventh in yards per attempt and finished in the top half of the league in completion percentage and long passes.
The only thing holding this defense back was a lack of big plays. With the early season injury to Matthew Judon, New England's pass rush got home 36 times, ranking 27th in sacks. Unlike the opportunistic Patriots defenses of the past, this squad was not good at taking the ball away. Their 18 turnovers on the season were tied for 23rd.
The organization must be counting on Judon's return to fix the pass rush and generate more turnovers because they did virtually nothing to improve this unit's personnel. The only draft pick dedicated to the defense was a sixth-round corner, and none of the few free agents signed project as more than depth.
Defensive Linemen
There was no need to spend capital on the defensive line this offseason. The groceries have already been bought, and the cupboard is full. The organization committed a ton of draft capital to the defense over the previous four seasons. Nine of the twelve picks made in the first three rounds of those drafts were on defense, with five used on tackles and edge defenders. They turned to free agency for one major addition to the defensive line. That was in 2021 when they picked up Matthew Judon.
New England's sack numbers were down in 2023. What a difference Judon would have made. He put up four sacks in the first three games before leaving early in week four with a torn biceps. The rest of the team's edge defenders combined for nine sacks on the season, if you count Deatrich Wise Jr among the edge guys.
Judon put up good numbers during his five years with Baltimore. Since coming to New England, his production has been outstanding. In 2021, he recorded 60 combined tackles, twelve sacks, and recovered a fumble. In year two, Judon's tackle totals were virtually the same, but he added three sacks and a couple more turnovers.
Judon was the number 21 edge defender in 2021. In 2022, he jumped to twelve, and when he was injured last year, he ranked fifth. The injury is behind him, and Judon is set to pick up where he left off. He turns 32 in August but is only signed through the upcoming season. So we can add the motivation of a contract year to our evaluation. I was very high on Judon going into last season and continue to be. The injury might allow us to pick him up in the mid-edge2 range, which would be a steal.
Uche made a great showing down the stretch in 2022, going 20-4-11.5 with a pair of forced fumbles over the final eight games. He was my favorite edge sleeper heading into 2023. That didn't work out very well. Instead of seeing an increased role, his playing time remained limited while Jennings, Deatrich Wise Jr, and Keion White all played at least 195 more snaps.
Deatrich Wise had the best season of his six-year career in 2022. His 33 tackles, 25 assists, and 7.5 sacks were all career-bests for the 2017 fourth-round pick. At six foot five and 285 pounds, he is a versatile player who can stay on the field in any situation. When the team is in a four-man front, Wise can work on the outside, offering a dependable anchor versus the run with a little pass-rush ability. In three-man fronts, he can work the edge and will do so once in a while, but he usually slides into the five-technique role with his hand on the ground opposite the offensive tackle. Wise has modest upside and is unlikely to make a big splash on the stat sheets.
New England had a trio of 310+ pound interior linemen that made things tough on offensive lines. Lawrence Guy is gone, so last year's second-round pick, Keion White, is expected to see an increased role. Putting Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy, and Christian Barmore on the field together had a lot to do with the Patriots' success against the run. White is smaller than Guy and might not be as stout against the run, but he should provide a little more pop on passing downs.
Godchaux doesn't pack much punch as a pass rusher, though he does have a sack in two of his three seasons with the team. He has, however, put up 65, 63, and 65 combined stops in the last three seasons, respectively. The scarcity of production at the tackle position could be enough to make Godchaux worthy of a roster spot as a DT3.
Barmore's numbers were minimal in 2022, but that was only because he missed eight games. Entering his third season, the 2021 first-round pick was set to take over the lead role at one of the five-technique tackle spots in three-man fronts. He can also play either tackle spot in four-man fronts. That versatility got him on the field for 749 plays in 2023. Barmore used the opportunity to show why the organization made the right decision when drafting him. He broke out for 39 tackles, 26 assists, 8.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and 6 batted passes to finish sixth among tackles. Barmore turns 25 in late July and is entering his prime. We may not have seen his best production.
If White is not the answer to the hole in the interior rotation, free-agent addition Armon Watts would be the next guy to get a shot.
- Edge Matthew Judon –Elite potential in a contract year
- Edge Joshua Uche – There is potential but believe it when we see it
- Edge Anfernee Jennings – Marginal value regardless of role
- Edge Oshane Ximines – No impact expected
- DT Christian Barmore – Solid DT1 with elite-tier potential
- DT Keion White – Watchlist player
- DT Davon Godchaux – Decent DT3 with limited upside
- DT Deatrich Wise – Marginal impact
- DT Armon Watts – No impact expected
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for IDP (individual defensive players) leagues. If this league is not a IDP (individual defensive players) league, you can edit your leagues here.
Linebackers
There are no stars in the Patriots linebacker room. They have good team players who fit the scheme and play their parts well. Ja'Whaun Bentley made his first start for the team in 2020. For three seasons, he worked mostly in a two-down role, with his snap counts varying widely from week to week. There were games when he would play virtually every snap, followed by games when he was on the field for fewer than half. It was never a knock on Bentley but simply a case of how the defense matched up and their wide variety of game plans specific to the opponent.
Bentley's participation level has grown each season since 2019. Had he not missed a game and a half, 2023 would have been the first time in his career that he reached 1000 plays in a season. Bentley saw at least 95% of the action in twelve games, logging every snap in nine. His steady rise in playing time is a good sign. Unfortunately, his production has not gone up with it. In 2021, Bentley totaled 108 combined tackles, with a sack and 3 forced fumbles on 709 plays. In 2023 he recorded 114 combined stops, 4 sacks, and a forced fumble on 985.
Jahlani Tavai has also seen his playing time increase each season since joining the team in 2021. He moved into the starting lineup last year, working in an early down role and leaving the field in many sub-package situations. He often saw less than 70% of the action with the only exceptions being the two games when Bentley was banged up. Tavai was slightly more productive than Bentley on a per-snap basis, posting 110 combined stops with a sack and 4 turnovers on 837 plays.
New England signed former Cleveland linebacker Mack Wilson in 2022. After two uneventful seasons, they let him go and signed another former Brown, Sione Takitaki. Takitaki is in line for the third linebacker role, which means a low snap count. He could push Tavai for the number two job, but after seeing him stuck in a part-time role with the Browns for five years, he would not be much of an upgrade.
The other player who could sneak into the conversation is last year's third-round pick, Marte Mapu. Mapu has an interesting skill set. He entered the league as a linebacker/safety tweener. After hitting the weight room hard, he is up to 230 pounds and more suited for a role closer to the line. Mapu did not play much as a rookie, but he could get a serious look in year two.
While at Sacramento State, Mapu played mostly as the nickel defender but also saw time at linebacker and safety. His tackle production was solid in his two seasons as a starter, but the eight turnovers (seven picks) and 22 passes defended made him stand out statistically. On film, it was his versatility and physical presence that the Patriots fell in love with.
From the fantasy perspective, Bentley has been the best they have to offer over the last three seasons but he has been no better than decent depth. Tavai edged him out as the team's most fantasy-friendly linebacker last year, finishing as LB31, while Bentley came in at 39.
The bottom line is that the Patriots have not given us a top-25 linebacker since Jamie Collins in 2019. Tavai might break that trend if he were to land a three-down role. If anyone is going to bump Bentley out of that role, Mapu's speed and cover skills make him the favorite to do so. Unless there is a shakeup coming, the only thing New England's linebackers will provide for us is depth.
- ILB Ja'Whaun Bentley – Decent LB4 with marginal upside
- ILB Jahlani Tavai – LB4 with a little upside if he lands a three-down role
- ILB SioneTakitaki – No impact expected
- ILB Marte Mapu – Deep sleeper but worth keeping an eye on
- ILB Raekwon McMillan – No impact
- ILB Christian Ellis – No impact
Defensive Backs
The Patriots secondary will look different in 2023. Not because they added players, but because they moved on from a few. New England had fifteen defensive backs take snaps last year, including eleven corners. Injuries were a factor that caused some shuffling but a lot of it came from the coaching staff's search for the right combination. Myles Bryant, Jalen Mills, J.C. Jackson, and Adrian Phillips totaled 1875 snaps between them last year. With those guys gone, the dynamic could be considerably different.
The starting safeties are not in question. At 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Kyle Dugger is a safety trapped in the body of a linebacker. Not only is he hard-hitting and physical against the run, Dugger is a ball-hawk. If not for the time he missed early in 2022, he would have exceeded 90 combined stops in three straight seasons. He has 13 turnovers and 20 pass breakups over those three years as well.
Dugger set the pace for the Patriots last year with a team-high 71 solo stops and a career-best 38 assists. His overall numbers were down in 2022 when he played through knee and ankle injuries. However, if we look at his average points per game, Dugger has three straight top-fifteen finishes. This season should make four.
At 5-foot-11 and 217 pounds, Jabril Peppers might be the biggest starting free safety in the league. Peppers is a versatile safety who has been a starter at both positions over his seven NFL seasons. What we have learned from those seven seasons, is that Peppers is not as physical as we might expect for a player of his stature and he is not the playmaker Cleveland expected when they made him a first-round. Peppers averages just over two takeaways per season.
Peppers is a dependable center fielder who covers well and will not give up many big plays. That is exactly what the Patriots need him to be. He is a seven-year starter in the league but has never reached 60 solo stops or finished among the top twenty safeties. Peppers ranked 34th last year, making him useful as depth in many leagues. We have seen enough to know who he is and what we can expect in 2024.
Over the last four seasons, New England has been a hotbed of IDP value at the corner position. In each of those seasons, there has been a Patriot in the top 20. In three of them, they had a player in the top 10; in two, the Patriots placed a second corner among the top 24. Last year, Myles Bryant was third at the position with 65 solo stops and ranked 17th. With so many players out of the picture, it is not so hard to figure out who to target here.
New England took Christian Gonzalez in the first round last spring. He was plugged into the lineup immediately but was lost to a shoulder injury in week four. In the short stint before the injury, he put up 13 tackles, 3 assists, a sacks, a pick, three pass breakups, and 36 fantasy points in three games.
Gonzales is big at 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds, and blazing fast, running a sub 4.4 in the forty-yard dash. He is a physical press corner who can disrupt routes, even against big receivers, with the speed to recover when beaten at the line. Gonzalez relishes run support opportunities, making a lot of tackles and has a knack for the big play. So long as he remains healthy, this young man could become a perennial CB1.
Jonathan Jones has been a starter for New England since 2017. He lacks Gonzalez's size and does not match up with big receivers all that well. He has been the team's lead corner for much of his time there but should slip into the number two role as Gonzalez gains experience. Jones put up good numbers in 2020, finishing 17th at the position. That was his most productive season to date and a career outlier.
Marcus Jones, Marco Wilson, Shaun Wade, and rookie Marcellas Dial will compete to establish the rest of the depth chart. Whoever ends up playing over the slot could be another IDP target once the season starts.
- SS Kyle Dugger – Priority number two with some upside
- FS Jabril Peppers – Depth with marginal upside
- FS Jaylinn Hawkins – No impact
- CB Christian Gonzalez – Potential CB1
- CB Jonathan Jones – No impact
- CB Marcus Jones – Potential CB3
- CB Marcellas Dial – Deep sleeper at best
- CB Shaun Wade – No impact
- CB Marco Wilson – Injury sleeper
I get excited when I get down to just a few teams left to cover because that means football is getting close. We inch a little closer with the Dolphins next.
Enjoy this article? Find more from John here.