The Vikings began transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in 2022, but we really shouldn't count that season. It was such a disaster under Ed Donatell that he was shown the door after just one year. Shortly after the final whistle of their playoff loss to the Giants in 2022, Donatell was fired, and Brian Flores was hired to replace him. About the only thing these two coaches have in common is using a 3-4 alignment in their base defense.
The Vikings' defenses had not done much blitzing under their two previous coordinators. That changed with the hiring of Flores who would send the water boy if it were legal. His defenses thrive on pressure and forcing mistakes.
The unit showed improvement in 2023, though there is plenty of room for more. Last year, they were 8th against the run and 22nd against the pass. Minnesota's 22 turnovers were middle of the pack, and they were 19th in sacks.
After a season of personnel evaluation and scheme installation, there will be a lot of new faces in this year's lineup. The Vikings made a lot of their defensive moves via free agency, bringing in eight veterans, many of whom will either start or have significant roles. The organization was not done there though, using two of their first three picks on defense, including the 17th overall on edge, Dallas Turner.
Not all of the additions are necessarily upgrades. The team had some cap issues that forced them to let some guys go that they would have been happy to keep. Overall, they look a little better, at least on paper.
Defensive Linemen
The Vikings' defensive line was overhauled, especially at the edge positions, where three of their top four in playing time from last year are gone. That includes Danielle Hunter, who led the team with 16.5 sacks, and D.J. Wonnum who was second with 8. Any team would love a player like Hunter, so these changes were more about money than performance. In going from Hunter and Wonnum to Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, the team saved about 8.7 million on the cap in 2024.
No team wants to lose a great player like Hunter, but if you have to let one go, getting a replacement like Greenard is a great move. Greenard is not only much cheaper, he is younger and has shown Hunter-like potential. As the 2020 third-round pick of the Texans, Greenard did not play much in his first year. His first significant playing time came in week three of 2021. Greenard went on to play more than 25 snaps in nine more games that year, finishing with 31 combined stops, 8 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 4 batted passes on 413 plays.
Greenard earned the starting job at the start of his third season, but an early injury derailed what could have been his breakout year. He would not be denied, however. His breakout came in 2023 when Greenard totaled 36-15-12.5 with a turnover, and 2 batted passes in 15 games. Greenard is not Danielle Hunter but he's a rising star who should go a long way toward softening the blow of the loss for Vikings fans and IDP managers alike.
On the field, the swap of Wonnum for Van Ginkel looks like a push. In the box scores, it could be an upgrade. Wonnum was a steady contributor, working as the second starter in two of the last three seasons. Over that span, he totaled 20 sacks with 4 turnovers, 10 passes defended, and a score on 2373 plays. Wonnum turned in one good year in the tackle columns with 60 combined in 2023.
Over his last four years in Miami, Van Ginkel worked mostly in a backup role, though injuries elevated him for multiple games in two of those years. He played 2364 snaps, posting 16 sacks with 8 turnovers, 21 passes defended, and a pair of scores. In 2020, Van Ginkel combined for 48 tackles. In 2021, he had 71, including 50 solo, and last season, he finished 43-26 with a career-best of 6 sacks.
Van Ginkel's versatility and cover skills open up a lot of options for coach Flores and good speed allows him to chase down a lot of plays from the backside. The only thing that could keep Van Ginkel from being an IDP factor in 2024 is the presence of Dallas Turner.
Turner checks all the boxes. He is blazing fast, is highly athletic, has an explosive upfield burst, and has put up impressive sack numbers at Alabama. There is room for improvement in all aspects of his game though, especially versus the run. Turner added weight over his three seasons with the Crimson Tide but still checks in under 250 pounds. He can be manhandled as a point-of-attack defender and needs to add muscle to be effective on early downs at the pro level.
As a junior last year, Turner totaled 53 tackles, 10 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles over 14 games. He has the potential to be special but could start his career as a third-down specialist while working to improve as an edge-setter. Turner has some upside as a rookie and is a good taxi squad stash for dynasty managers.
In a league where most teams have at least one defensive tackle at 325 pounds or more, the Vikings are built for speed and disruption. At 307 pounds, Harrison Phillips is their biggest defensive player. In four years with Buffalo, Phillips produced marginal stats. Two seasons with the Vikings have made him a serious IDP contributor.
In 2022, Phillips totaled 59 combined stops with a sack-and-a-half and two turnovers. While not impressive, those numbers were the best of his career at that point and made him a good backup in leagues that start two tackles. Phillips blew those numbers out of the water last year. At 44-48-3, he was second to Derrick Brown in tackles and ninth in points at the position. His pass rush is limited but effective and Phillips is excellent versus the run. In a scheme that could easily help him find two or three more sacks, he is a good target for your DT1 if you miss out on the first-tier guys.
Phillips and Jonathan Bullard are the only returning starters from last year's starting five. Phillips is the nose tackle, while Bullard and free agent addition Jerry Tillery are penciled in as starters at the outside tackle positions. Free agent additions Jonah Williams and Jihad Ward might have something to say about that. The goal was to get more pressure from those spots. Minnesota got five sacks from their tackle positions last year: Harrison's three and two from Bullard. Between them, Tillery, Ward, and Williams accounted for nine. I expect a wide-open competition for the starting jobs and a relatively even rotation regardless of who gets the title.
- Edge Jonathan Greenard – Quality second starter with some upside
- Edge Andrew Van Ginkel – Top-20 potential at a bargain basement price
- Edge Dallas Turner – dynasty target with short-term upside
- Edge Patrick Jones – Injury sleeper at best
- Edge Andre Carter – Developmental player entering his second year
- DT Harrison Phillips – Low-end DT1 with good consistency
- DT Jerry Tillery – No impact expected
- DT Jonathan Bullard – No impact
- DT James Lynch – Potential depth
- DT Jihad Ward – DT2 potential
- DT Jaquelin Roy – No impact
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Linebackers
The organization is not finished with the defensive rebuild but will have to wait at least one more season if they plan on further addressing the off-ball linebacker positions. Meanwhile, they have a pair of capable players who could prove to be long-term starters. Minnesota moved on from Eric Kendricks before last season, in what was also largely a money-saving move. Jordan Hicks and Ivan Pace Jr held down the fort in 2023. Hicks had the three-down role when healthy and put up good numbers. He was not seen as a long-term answer by the organization and has moved on to Cleveland.
Pace quickly became a fan favorite and was a hit among IDP managers when Hicks missed time over the second half of the season. Starting in week eleven, Pace was the fantasy game's fifth-ranked linebacker at 14.4 points per game. He made a lot of tackles and was no stranger to the big play with two sacks and three takeaways over the final seven games. Not bad for an undrafted rookie.
Many IDP managers are targeting Pace as an LB1 or priority LB2 this summer. He could have that kind of value but there is plenty of risk involved. He is the kind of player that would have made an All-Madden Team. As Madden would say, he's a football player. An undersized underdog with a huge heart who leaves everything on the field. That said, there are reasons he went undrafted. Average speed, short stature, and holes in his coverage skills are all among those reasons.
Pace's energy is infectious, and he plays smart football. Even with his physical limitations, there is a place for him on the field. I'm just not sure he can sustain the lead role and continue seeing 100% of the snaps every game. If he does, Pace will be worth the price of an LB1.
The other reason I have reservations about Pace is the addition of Blake Cashman. From a talent and skill set perspective, this guy has serious potential. He has all the measurable and intangibles of a three-down starter. Size, speed, experience, and football IQ are all on his size. The only reason Cashman is relatively unknown in IDP circles five years into his career is that he can't stay healthy.
Cashman earned a starting job with the Jets as a rookie in 2019. He put up 38 tackles and a turnover in six games before missing the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. He started the week one game in 2020 but lasted three plays before suffering a groin injury. Cashman returned in October of that season only to pull a hamstring while being eased back into action. He was once again penciled in as the starting weak-side backer for the Jets in 2021 when a hamstring problem derailed his season before it could get started.
The Jets gave up on Cashman and traded him to the Texans in 2022. He missed time that year with a concussion, among other issues. He then missed the first two games last year and two more in December. In between Cashman started several games and was the team's leading tackler with 106 combined stops, a pair of sacks, 2 turnovers, and 5 pass breakups on 748 plays. His grade from Pro Football Focus ranked eighth among linebackers last year. The risk factor is major, but if he can beat the injury bug, Cashman can be an every-week must-start for us.
Brian Asamoah II was supposed to get his chance last season. He was banged up during training camp, opening the door for Pace, and never fought his way back into the mix. Asamoah is small at six feet and 226 pounds, but he is fast, has great reaction time, and has strong cover skills. With the odds favoring an injury to Cashman at some point this year, Asamoah could finally get his shot.
The Vikings signed Kamu Grigier-Hill to be a warm, veteran body and play special teams. He has been around long enough and has had plenty of chances to prove himself. In the end, Grugier-Hill is simply not a starting linebacker in the NFL.
- ILB Ivan Pace – LB4 floor with an LB1 ceiling
- ILB Blake Cashman - Good upside but serious injury risk
- ILB Brian Asamoah – Injury sleeper
- ILB Kamu Grugier-Hill – Special teams
Defensive Backs
The Vikings are young at the corner position. Byron Murphy II is entering his sixth season, but the next three guys on the depth chart, Akayleb Evans, Mekhi Blackmon, and Andrew Booth, have five seasons between them. Murphy should retain his starting job and could be an IDP factor. He missed the last three games in 2023 but was the 17th-ranked corner at the time of the injury. Murphy doesn't make a lot of tackles but has 12 turnovers and 29 pass breakups in just over two seasons of action over the last three years.
After Murphy, the three young corners previously mentioned, along with rookie Khyree Jackson and possibly veteran Shaquill Griffin, are all in the mix for the other starting corner spot. Evans is the projected starter but we will need to see this one play out before making any investment.
The Vikings' safety positions were a goldmine of IDP value in 2023. Camryn Bynum led the league's safeties with 94 solo tackles, was second with 43 assists, and his 5 turnovers were the ninth most at the position. Altogether, that production made him the fantasy game's third-best safety. Bynum worked as the strong safety in the team's big nickel base defense. With no significant changes expected, He should be in line for another highly productive year and a probable top-ten repeat.
The Minnesota scheme featured three safeties on over 90% of the snaps. There were nine games in which Bynum, Josh Metellus, and Harrison Smith were all on the field for every defensive snap. At age 34, Smith worked as the single-high free safety. Keeping him out of the fire probably helped to keep him healthy but it was not good for his fantasy value. Even so, Smith's 90 combined tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 turnovers were enough to keep him in the conversation as a decent third safety.
One of last year's surprises was Josh Metellus. The 2020 sixth-round pick was quiet over his first three seasons. That changed last year when he landed the third safety role. Metellus often lined up as a nickel linebacker or extra box safety. The result was 78 tackles, 38 assists, 2 sacks, 6 turnovers, 5 passes defended, and a rank of seventh at the position. The only thing that concerns me about predicting similar numbers for 2024 is the presence of Cashman, who is good in coverage and could poach some of the playing time in sub-packages. I am still confident in calling Metellus a priority third starter with an S2 upside.
- FS Harrison Smith – Depth with a little upside
- SS Camryn Bynum – Elite tier safety
- SS Josh Metellus – Quality second starter with top-ten upside
- CB Akayleb Evans – Marginal IDP value
- CB Byron Murphy – CB2 with a modest ceiling
- CB Andrew Booth – No value expected
- CB Mekhi Blackmon – worth keeping an eye on
- CB Khyree Jackson – Developmental rookie, not likely to see a lot of action early
- CB Shaq Griffin – No impact.
That's a wrap for part 14. Coming up next, Da'Bears.
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