Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 27: Miami Dolphins

There are plenty of good things to point out about the last year's Miami defense. They were tough versus the run, finishing seventh in yards, tied for fourth in yards per carry, and fifth in runs allowed of 20+ yards. The Dolphins were third in the league with 56 sacks, and their 27 turnovers ranked eighth. On the other hand, the pass defense was atrocious for the second straight season, and they ultimately gave up a lot of points.

We can throw out virtually everything we knew about this defense in the past because this is not the same squad in 2024. The first change was hiring Anthony Weaver to replace Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. What followed was an avalanche of roster adjustments.

Over the last few years, Miami has run a multi-front scheme, moving players around to keep offenses guessing. It was a complicated scheme with many bells and whistles that arguably kept defenders thinking rather than reacting. Not to mention all the situational packages and substitutions. That too, will change in 2024.

Weaver has an excellent track record of helping build outstanding defenses, including his most recent work in Baltimore from 2021 through 2023. His brand of defense is physical, aggressive, and disruptive, putting players in situations to exploit their strengths. With the potential for as many as seven new starters, the first challenge for Weaver will be figuring out what those strengths are and how the puzzle pieces fit together.   

The Dolphins started re-shaping the roster by being extremely active in free agency. They signed five interior linemen, an edge defender, two inside linebackers, two safeties, and two corners, most of whom will either start or be in the mix for significant roles. Miami was not done after free agency though. The draft brought them edge defenders in the first and fifth rounds, and a safety in the sixth. If you like training camp battles, this is the team to tune into. Apologies in advance for the length of this edition but there is a lot to cover here.

Defensive Linemen

The salary cap was a factor in some of the team's personnel decisions. They would have loved to keep Christian Wilkins, but the Raiders gave him a lot of money. Emmanuel Ogbah and Raekwon Davis are also gone, leaving Zach Sieler as the only returning tackle to play more than 30 snaps last year. Calais Campbell signed a one-year deal and is expected to replace Wilkins as the starter. Miami also signed Neville Gallimore, Benito Jones, Teair Tart, and Jonathan Harris. Gallimore projects as the starting nose tackle, with Jones and Tart possibly competing for a roster spot as his backup. Harris and Da'Shawn Hand are the favorites to back up the outside tackles.

Sieler has been an outstanding option for fantasy managers in recent years. His first full season as a starter was 2021. That year, he went 34-28-2 with 3 turnovers and scored his first top twelve ranking. In 2022, Sieler was 41-30-3.5 with a couple of forced fumbles and his second top-twelve. In 2023, he exploded, adding 10 sacks and 4 turnovers to his 64 combined tackles to finish third among interior linemen.

Some things would normally be red flags for Sieler. Last season was his first with more than three and a half sacks. Will that be a career outlier? A new coordinator always brings scheme and role changes. Will that have an adverse effect?

Those questions add a dash of risk but there are plenty of positives to override any concerns. Sieler is a great fit for what Coach Weaver wants to do. If he never comes close to ten sacks again, the strong tackle production means a high floor. If that is not convincing enough, consider some of the players Weaver has worked with either as a defensive line coach or coordinator. The list includes Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Jadeveon Clowney, J.J. Watt, and Justin Madubuike, who led all tackles with 13 sacks last year.  

At age 38, Campbell is not the player he once was. He is a step down from Wilkins on the field but is also about eight million dollars cheaper. There was a long stretch of his career when Campbell was a dependable, every-week must-start for us. Unfortunately, we have not seen that player since 2019. To his credit, 2023 was a bounce-back year for Campbell. A solid 55 total tackles, 6.5 sacks, and a pair of turnovers were his best numbers in four seasons. We have to consider that he played on the edge for the Falcons last season. The Dolphins will rely heavily on Campbell as a five-technique, so the opportunity will be there in a role he is familiar with.

If Weavers brings the Ravens' tendencies with him, the nose tackle will leave the field in sub-package situations. Gallimore should do well in the role, but the chances of useful production from the position are slim.

Starters Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are working their way back from serious injuries. Phillips tore his Achilles in week 12, and Chubb had an ACL injury in week 18. They will open training camp on the PUP and are not locks to be in the week one lineup. The Dolphins thought they had all their bases covered when they signed quality veteran starter Shaquil Barrett and used their first-round pick on Chop Robinson to sure up the position. That fell apart when Barrett decided to retire out of the blue in late July. If neither starter is ready, Miami may be forced to rely heavily on their other rookie, fifth-round pick Mohamad Kamara, early in the season. 

Chubb had the best year of his career in 2023. He set new highs in tackles with 45, assists with 28, and turnovers with 8. The 11 sacks were the second most of his career, and the rank of sixth is a personal best. With his injury happening at the end of the season, there is no way Chubb can be 100% in September. The injury to Phillips was a few weeks earlier, and players tend to recover faster from Achilles injuries, so he has a better shot at playing in week one. However, it could be mid-season or later before either player returns to form.

If Chop Robinson gets an opportunity to open the season as a starter, it might be hard for the coaching staff to take him out of that role even if the others are ready. He is an elite athlete with an explosive first step that gives offensive linemen fits. Robinson has the quickness to run around a block on one play and the power to run through it on the next.

Drawing comparisons to players like Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons, Robinson is all but certain to become a good starter early in his career, but he is still a bit raw from the technical perspective. He won't be able to win matchups on pure athleticism as he did in college, but the young man is 21 years old, and the tools are there for Robinson to evolve into an elite edge defender.

Robinson turned in surprisingly modest production at Penn State. In 22 games for the Nitney Lions, he totaled 41 combined tackles and 9.5 sacks. Rookie pass rushers rarely post great numbers, but there is a chance we could see a Jevon Kearse-like beginning for Robinson. For those who may not know what that means, Kearse was nicknamed the freak after going 48-9-14.5 and forcing 6 fumbles as a rookie for the Titans in 1999.

• Edge Jaelan Phillips – PUP candidate
• Edge Bradley Chubb – PUP likely to open the season
• Edge Shaquil Barrett – Possible depth
• Edge Chop Robinson – Dynasty target with the potential for a strong rookie season
• DT Calais Campbell – Probable DT2 with some risk
• DT Zach Sieler – High floor makes him at least a priority DT2
• DT Neville Gallimore – No impact
• DT Benito Jones – No impact
• DT Da'Shawn Hand – No impact
• DT Jonathan Harris – No impact

Linebackers

There is uncertainty surrounding the Dolphins inside linebacker situation. The good news is that with Weaver as the defensive coordinator last year, the Ravens kept both inside backers on the field full-time. The bad news is that there is no consensus on who those two players will be in Miami.

Jerome Baker moved on to Seattle, leaving David Long Jr as the only incumbent starter. To bolster the position and potentially upgrade it, the team added the former Seahawks first-round pick and four-year starter, Jordyn Brooks, and former Colts and Browns starter Anthony Walker Jr. in free agency. Many managers and prognosticators assume that Long will be one of the starters. I would strongly suggest that we not assume anything and could even see Long as the odd man out here. This is shaping up like a three-way battle for the starting jobs. All three contenders are good players with starting experience and a history of quality production.  

Long broke into the Titans starting lineup late in the 2020 season, playing virtually every snap over the final five games. He started and played full-time in 2021 until an injury caused him to miss several games. In the seven he played before the injury, Long averaged six solos, three assists, an interception, and five passes defended. His story was about the same in 2022, with similar numbers before his season ended with an injury in week thirteen.

Under coach Fangio, the Dolphins rarely played two full-time off-ball linebackers. Baker was in the lead role, playing every snap in seven of the eleven games before his injury. Even when Baker was out, Long never played every snap in a game, finishing with roughly 80% of the plays on the season. While his tackle production has been consistent and solid on a per-snap basis, Long has a career-best of 64 solos and 49 assists, both coming in 2023.

What Long does not bring to the table is splash play production. His five years as a pro have produced four interceptions, three forced fumbles, and one sack. He is adequate in coverage so a three-down role is possible, but the Dolphins are looking for playmakers and Long may not fit the bill.

Even as the 27th overall pick in 2020, Brooks spent his rookie season learning the ropes with a limited role. His playing time increased significantly in year two, but he was still not full-time at the start of the season. By the end of that campaign, Brooks had worked on almost 87% of the plays, racking up 185 tackles (108 solo), but was lacking in the big play columns with one sack and one fumble recovery.

In 2022, Brooks was out of the shadow of Bobby Wagner, who left in free agency. In the lead role, Brooks played nearly every snap of the regular season, right up to week 17 when he suffered an ACL injury. Again, he was a tackling machine with 161 total stops, including 103 solos. He remained light in the big play columns with a sack and two takeaways.

With the injury happening so late in the year, it was surprising to see Brooks in action for the week one game last year. Wagner had been re-signed and was in the lead role while Jordyn's load was reduced, presumably to limit the wear on his surgically repaired knee. He missed a couple of games late in the year, finishing at 62-49 in the tackle columns on less than 70% of the playing time. While the tackle totals were down a little, the playmaker in Brooks was awakened. He recorded four sacks, three turnovers, and a score.

Brooks has excellent speed, good cover skills, and made a lot of splash plays during his college career. He is two years removed from the injury and with his playmaking ability starting to show, I could easily see him claiming the lead role for the Dolphins this year and putting up strong numbers.

Anthony Walker Jr. spent his first four seasons with the Colts, where he was in the shadow of Shaquille Leonard. He was a starter for most of his final three years there but never played more than 829 snaps in a season. In 2018, Walker managed 103 combined stops with a sack, 2 turnovers, and 4 pass breakups. In 2019, his numbers were up at 84-41-2 with a couple of turnovers and 2 passes defended. Walker's numbers slipped in 2020 when he shared time with an emerging Bobby Okereke.

Walker signed with the Browns where he earned the lead role in 2021. Unfortunately, he was banged up early in the year missing four games, and was not 100% in several others. He was injured in week three of 2022, missing the remainder of the season, and became part of the Browns' four-man rotation for much of last year.  

Walker is similar to Long in that he is strong as a run defender and is average in coverage. Neither player poses a major threat in the big play columns but Walker might have a little edge. His biggest issue has been staying healthy. If he manages to do so in 2024, I can see Walker emerging as one of the starters and putting up good numbers for us.

The bottom line is that there is value to be had with the Dolphins' linebackers. It is a situation that's high on our training camp watchlist but if you draft before we get any answers, I would lean toward gambling on Brooks.   

• ILB Jordyn Brooks – Tackling machine with big-play potential and a high ceiling
• ILB Anthony Walker Jr. – Watchlist sleeper with an LB3 ceiling
• ILB David Long Jr. – Watchlist sleeper with an LB3 ceiling
• ILB Channing Tindall – No impact
• ILB Duke Riley – No impact

Defensive Backs

The Miami secondary got a makeover this offseason. Free safety Jevon Holland is a mainstay, and they get Jalen Ramsey back from injury. But there will be several new faces in the mix. At strong safety, Jordan Poyer comes over from the division rival Bills, and Marcus Maye was signed after spending the last two years with New Orleans. On the outside, Xavien Howard will be replaced by Kendall Fuller with Siran Neal and possibly last year's second-round pick, Cam Smith, likely competing with incumbent Kadar Kohou for the third corner role.

A glance at last year's totals for the players in this secondary might have many IDP managers looking elsewhere. Don't make that mistake. Holland is among the fantasy game's most productive free safeties. His 52 tackles and 22 assists were low only because he missed five games. Factor in his average per-game numbers, and it looks more like 80 tackles and 34 assists. Considering he was 77-19 in 2022, those would be reasonable projections.

We don't have to speculate about Holland's knack for the big play. Over his three years in the league, he has three sacks, 5 interceptions, 5 forced fumbles, a recovery, 21 passes defended, and a score. He was the fantasy game's number 17 safety in 2022, and his average was almost 11.5 points per game, ranking 13th last year. If there is a concern with Holland, it is week-to-week consistency. In 2022, he reached double-digit points in six games, with five or fewer in four outings. Last season, Holland was on fire out of the gate with 54 points over the first three games. He totaled 41.5 over the next six.

With good tackle totals and a bunch of big plays, Jordan Poyer went on an impressive run from 2017 through 2021. Over those season he ranked 3rd, 7th, 4th, 2nd, and 5th among safeties. Injuries took a toll in 2022 as Poyer missed five games and played gimpy in several others. He bounced back last season with 111 combined stops, but the splash plays were missing. The Dolphins are counting on those to return in 2024. Considering that Poyer combined for at least seven turnovers and sacks for six consecutive seasons leading up to 2023, he should be able to deliver. We can't expect a repeat of the 94 solos he piled up in 2020, but 75 is a reasonable expectation, making him a prime candidate for a top-twelve return.

Marcus Maye has been a tease for IDP managers in recent years. When healthy, he puts up good numbers. The problem is, he can't stay out of the trainer's room.  Working as the third safety should limit his playing time and, hopefully, keep him available for the Dolphins in case he's needed later in the season. If Maye gets called up to the starting lineup, He could be productive for us.

Kendall Fuller and Jalen Ramsey will be starters at corner, with Kader Kohou the favorite to handle nickel duties. The big question is their roles. Ramsey put up outstanding numbers in 2021 and 2022 while working mostly as the Rams' slot defender. He totaled 126 solo stops with 2 sacks, 14 turnovers, and 32 pass breakups over those two seasons, finishing fourth among corners in 2021 and second in 2022.

Ramsey's 2023 went sour in late July when he tore his meniscus. Remarkably, he was back on the field in week eight without the same production. Coach Fangio elected not to follow the blueprint provided by the Rams, instead playing Ramsey on the perimeter most of the time. It is unclear how Coach Weaver will approach the situation, so we need to see how that plays out before assigning a value. Unfortunately, we will probably not have that opportunity before our drafts.

Fuller has been a good NFL corner over his eight seasons. He has been the number one for his teams at times but is best suited for the number two role. Fuller is a dependable veteran who does not shy away from run support duties and will make a fair share of big plays. He is inconsistent from year to year, making it hard to place a value. In 2018, Fuller finished 64-18-0 with 3 turnovers, 11 passed defended, and a rank of tenth among corners. In 2021, he went 64-14-1 with a pick and 16 passes defended to rank 15th. Last year. Fuller missed a couple of games but still landed in the top 20 at 55-24-0 with 4 turnovers and 9 pass breakups. In his other five seasons, however, Fuller has no more than 43 tackles and has not finished among the top 40.

Kohou has become a steady contributor over the last two seasons but he could face tough competition. The former undrafted free agent was a surprise starter as a rookie in 2022 and played well again last season. He can work over the slot or on the outside which opens up options for the play-caller. We could see Kohou on the perimeter when he's in the game, freeing Ramsey to move around as he did in those mega-productive years with the Rams.         

• SS Jordan Poyer – Target as a low-end second starter with top-ten upside
• FS Jevon Holland – Inconsistency is an issue, but the overall production is good.
• SS Marcus Maye – Injury sleeper
• CB Kendall Fuller –  Hit or miss CB2
• CB Jalen Ramsey – CB2 floor with a top-five ceiling
• CB Kader Kohou – Injury sleeper
• CB Cam Smith – Deep sleeper at best
• CB Nik Needham – No impact

That does it for the Dolphins. Buffalo is next to close out the AFC.      

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