The offseason is over, the batteries are recharged, and it’s time to get cranking on those 2024 IDP championships. Welcome back for year 30 of the Eyes of the Guru. Continuing with the fairly recently established tradition, we’ll be kicking off this year’s series with the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs.
Before we dig into team one, let me remind everyone that Footballguys evolved our IDP content last year, adopting True Position format. The need to positional realignment on the IDP side has been evident for a long time. Many league host sites have also followed the swiftly growing trend.
Simply put, True Position improves the IDP game for everyone involved by solving the positional designation dilemma once and for all. The simple adjustment is that all edge defenders will be considered defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today’s NFL, that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.
For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, the model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:
- Tackles = 1.5
- Assists = .75
- Sacks = 4
- Forced fumbles = 3
- Fumble recoveries = 3
- Interceptions = 4
- Passes defended = 1.5
- Touchdowns = 6
When discussing tackles, the term tackles refers to solo stops only while total tackles will include assists in the numbers as well. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced are all included since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.
From time to time the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses thus these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon) and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.
Now that we are all speaking the same language, let’s get this thing rolling!
The difference between Kansas City’s first championship team after the 2019 season, and their back-to-back titles of the last two years, is how they got there. The first one came on the strength of Patrick Mahomes II and a high-powered, almost magical offense. The last two, and especially last year’s, relied much more on the contributions of the defense.
The 2023 Chiefs played excellent defense. The team’s 57 sacks ranked second, their six yards per pass attempt was third best, they allowed the 4th fewest yards and the fourth fewest scores through the air. The only thing Kansas City did not do particularly well against the pass, was take the ball away. Only two teams picked off fewer passes.
Versus the run, many of the numbers are less than impressive but the overall result was almost as good. Just six teams gave up more yards per carry while only Denver allowed more runs of 40 plus yards. On the other hand, the team’s 15 forced fumbles were tied for the 10th most while two teams allowed fewer points on the ground.
The good news for Chiefs fans is that, other than L’Jarius Snead, this year’s unit is young and returns all of its important pieces after using five of their seven picks on defense last year. The bad news is there are not many reinforcements for 2024 and depth could be a problem.
Defensive Linemen
Of the team’s 57 sacks, 39.5 were recorded by the defensive line. Four players contributed at least six and a half with tackle Chris Jones and edge George Karlaftis each reaching double digits at ten and a half. The sack totals suggest a great deal of IDP value from this group. There is, however, more to the story.
One of the big factors when it comes to the value of defensive linemen is playing time. Many defenses use a line-change mentality, substituting a lot of guys to keep everyone fresh. This dilutes the volume of opportunities and often makes average fantasy contributors of outstanding players. Lack of opportunity is not something that will hold either Jones or Karlaftis back as both averaged about 75% of the snaps in 2023.
The issue with Kansas City linemen is in the tackle and turnover columns. Mike Danna led this unit with 33 solo stops and 50 combined. No other lineman reached 30 solo or 50 total. Charles Omenihu forced a pair of fumbles but no other lineman had more than one with Tershawn Wharton credited with the only recovery by the group.
Danna was on my pre-season sleeper list last year. He played a lot early in the year and started hot in the box scores before falling on his face after week eight. Danna is in line to remain the starter opposite Karlaftis but after last season’s vanishing act, it’s hard to have much faith in his fantasy value.
It’s not all that hard to figure out what happened to Danna’s production. We need to look no further than Charles Omenihu. Omenihu returned from injury in seven and by week nine, was getting a healthy dose of playing time. Both of these players have the potential to provide quality numbers on any given week but it is unlikely to happen with any consistency so long as they are sharing time.
Chris Jones is a proven commodity and one of our most dependable options at the tackle position. He’s a quality DT1 with the potential for a big game on any given week. His modest tackle production and tendency to be inconsistent, however, keep him out of the elite tier for me.
Wharton, Derrick Nnadi, and Mike Pennel are in line to cover the rest of the playing time on the inside. They all logged fewer than 500 snaps in 2023. There is no reason to believe that will change this year.
- DE George Karlaftis – Low-end DE2 with upside on any given week
- DE Mike Danna – Depth at best
- DE Felix Anidike-Uzomah – Watch list sleeper coming off a disappointing rookie season
- DE Charles Omenihu – Productive when given enough opportunity
- DE BJ Thompson – No impact expected
- DE Malik Herring – No impact
- DT Chris Jones – Solid DT1 with big game upside but consistency questions
- DT Derrick Nnadi – No impact
- DT Mike Pennel – No impact
- DT Tershawn Wharton – No impact.
Go Deeper: See our defensive end projections here >>>
Go Deeper: See our defensive tackle projections here >>>
Linebackers
With Nick Bolton in the middle, Drue Tranquill at weak side, and Leo Chenal on the strong side, the Chiefs are rock solid at linebacker from the on-field perspective. Bolton was in and out of the lineup with injuries last year but when healthy, he is one of the game’s outstanding young backers. Tranquill is a dependable three-down starter with the versatility to excel at any of the linebacker spots. Chenal is a bit more of a physical, run-stopper and a guy that can blow up blocking schemes at the point of attack.
Where there are good players, we usually find quality IDP production. There is no exception here. To get a good idea of what to expect from these guys we need only take a short walk into the past. When Bolton was drafted in 2021, he joined a very average linebacker corps. He immediately landed a significant role but the coaching staff was not willing to hand over the reins to a rookie. The result was a four-man rotation at the second level with Bolton, Anthony Hitchens, Ben Niemann, and Willie Gay Jr all having significant roles while none of them saw much more than about 60-65 percent of the action.
In 2022, the Chiefs moved on from Hitchens and made Bolton the centerpiece of the defense. Bolton went on to play every snap in thirteen games, seeing fewer than 87% of the snaps just once all season. The result was an elite fantasy season for Bolton that included 109 solo stops, 70 assists, 3 takeaways, a pair of sacks, and a final rank of third among linebackers.
Willie Gay Jr was never a full-time player while with the Chiefs but his best season with the team in terms of both playing time and production, was also in 2022. That season, Gay consistently played between 60 and 75 percent of the snaps, averaging a useful 11.3 points per game.
It would be easy to look at last year and assume it was injuries that caused Bolton to crash back to earth. Looking a little closer, we see that he played eight regular season games in 2023 but saw 100% of the snaps in none of them. In fact, Bolton exceeded 90% of the snaps in just three of them. Injuries may have contributed as he was not fully healthy until late in the season but the presence of Tranquill was a major factor as well. With Bolton, Tranquill, Gay, and Chenal who was then in his second season, the Chiefs were back to playing four linebackers in three spots.
Gay is wearing a different uniform this year and the Chiefs made no significant additions at linebacker, so it would seem the rotation is gone again. That’s great news for Bolton’s fantasy stock. He has the potential to return to the top-5 but last year’s struggles could make him available in the mid LB2 range. While there is some risk, the floor is high.
So what about Tranquill in this situation? We can’t overlook the fact that he was the fantasy game’s number-seven linebacker while with the Chargers in 2022, so the fantasy potential is there. The question is, will he fall into the same 70% or so role that Gay was playing or will the defensive staff change things up and play more two linebacker looks since they have a better player to work with? We are not going to get that answer for a while. I am approaching Tranquill as a low-end LB3 or priority depth. Even at 70%, he will hold some value but if he manages 85%, Tranquill could be an every-week start for us. Don’t overlook the fact that if Bolton is hurt again, Tranquill becomes an LB1 for us.
- MLB Nick Bolton – A return to the top ten would not be a surprise
- WLB Drue Tranquill – LB4 with significant upside
- SLB Leo Chenal – It would take an injury or two for him to have serious value
- MLB Jack Cochran – Injury depth at best
Go Deeper: See our linebacker projections here >>>
Defensive Backs
The secondary is the biggest question mark for the Kansas City defense heading into 2024. The loss of their top corner, L’Jarius Snead, will be an obstacle. Trent McDuffie steps into the lead role, or does he? The 2022 first-round pick has the talent and ability to do so but he was drafted to be a playmaker in the slot.
The team has a pair of solid third-year players that they like in Jaylen Watson and Josh Williams. Both have seen a lot of action in their short careers and are fairly experienced. These guys will be the top three corners entering camp, though it remains unclear how they will be deployed.
The Chiefs added Kamal Hadden in round six to fill the roster spot of Snead. Hadden will compete with a handful of other young guys and maybe a veteran or two for his place in the pecking order. In fantasy terms, McDuffie likely has enough juice to be a quality contributor in either role. As we’ve seen in recent years, the slot corner in this scheme can be an IDP goldmine.
There was a long dry spell during which we got little or no IDP value from the Chiefs’ safety positions. Strong safety Justin Reid broke that trend last year. Reid fell well short of being a stud but his 95 combined tackles (75 solo), and a handful of splash plays, made him a solid third starter for us.
Reid is not going to make a bunch of big plays but he is a physical tackler and a solid pass defender. The return of a healthy Bolton at the second level could have a little negative impact on Reid but he should still make a nice DB3 for us.
Bryan Cook fills out the starting secondary at the free safety position. Like his predecessor, Juan Thornhill, Cook is a good player for his team but not so much for ours. His contributions from the deep safety spot, are not going to show up strongly in the box scores.
Mike Edwards was the team’s third safety last season. He saw a good deal of action, including a few starts when Cook was banged up. Edwards is gone leaving second-year man Chamarri Conner and fourth-round rookie Jaden Hicks to compete for the sub-package role.
- FS Bryan Cook – No impact
- SS Justin Reid – Solid DB3
- SS Chamarri Conner – Injury sleeper at best
- FS Jaden Hicks – No impact expected
- CB Trent McDuffie – High floor for a corner
- CB Jaylen Watson – Watchlist sleeper
- CB Joshua Williams – Watchlist sleeper
- CB Kamal Hadden – No impact
Go Deeper: See our cornerback projections here >>>
Go Deeper: See our safety projections here >>>
That does it for part one of this year’s preseason offering. The Raiders are up next.
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