The offseason is over, the batteries are recharged, and it’s time to get cranking on those 2024 IDP championships. Welcome back for year 30 of the Eyes of the Guru. Continuing with the fairly recently established tradition, we’ll be kicking off this year’s series with the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs.
Before we dig into team one, let me remind everyone that Footballguys evolved our IDP content last year, adopting True Position format. The need to positional realignment on the IDP side has been evident for a long time. Many league host sites have also followed the swiftly growing trend.
Simply put, True Position improves the IDP game for everyone involved by solving the positional designation dilemma once and for all. The simple adjustment is that all edge defenders will be considered defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today’s NFL, that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.
For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, the model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:
- Tackles = 1.5
- Assists = .75
- Sacks = 4
- Forced fumbles = 3
- Fumble recoveries = 3
- Interceptions = 4
- Passes defended = 1.5
- Touchdowns = 6
When discussing tackles, the term tackles refers to solo stops only while total tackles will include assists in the numbers as well. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced are all included since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.
From time to time the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses thus these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon) and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.
Now that we are all speaking the same language, let’s get this thing rolling!
The difference between Kansas City’s first championship team after the 2019 season, and their back-to-back titles of the last two years, is how they got there. The first one came on the strength of Patrick Mahomes II and a high-powered, almost magical offense. The last two, and especially last year’s, relied much more on the contributions of the defense.
The 2023 Chiefs played excellent defense. The team’s 57 sacks ranked second, their six yards per pass attempt was third best, they allowed the 4th fewest yards and the fourth fewest scores through the air. The only thing Kansas City did not do particularly well against the pass, was take the ball away. Only two teams picked off fewer passes.
Versus the run, many of the numbers are less than impressive but the overall result was almost as good. Just six teams gave up more yards per carry while only Denver allowed more runs of 40 plus yards. On the other hand, the team’s 15 forced fumbles were tied for the 10th most while two teams allowed fewer points on the ground.
The good news for Chiefs fans is that, other than L’Jarius Snead, this year’s unit is young and returns all of its important pieces after using five of their seven picks on defense last year. The bad news is there are not many reinforcements for 2024 and depth could be a problem.
Defensive Linemen
Of the team’s 57 sacks, 39.5 were recorded by the defensive line. Four players contributed at least six and a half with tackle Chris Jones and edge George Karlaftis each reaching double digits at ten and a half. The sack totals suggest a great deal of IDP value from this group. There is, however, more to the story.
One of the big factors when it comes to the value of defensive linemen is playing time. Many defenses use a line-change mentality, substituting a lot of guys to keep everyone fresh. This dilutes the volume of opportunities and often makes average fantasy contributors of outstanding players. Lack of opportunity is not something that will hold either Jones or Karlaftis back as both averaged about 75% of the snaps in 2023.
The issue with Kansas City linemen is in the tackle and turnover columns. Mike Danna led this unit with 33 solo stops and 50 combined. No other lineman reached 30 solo or 50 total. Charles Omenihu forced a pair of fumbles but no other lineman had more than one with Tershawn Wharton credited with the only recovery by the group.
Danna was on my pre-season sleeper list last year. He played a lot early in the year and started hot in the box scores before falling on his face after week eight. Danna is in line to remain the starter opposite Karlaftis but after last season’s vanishing act, it’s hard to have much faith in his fantasy value.
It’s not all that hard to figure out what happened to Danna’s production. We need to look no further than Charles Omenihu. Omenihu returned from injury in seven and by week nine, was getting a healthy dose of playing time. Both of these players have the potential to provide quality numbers on any given week but it is unlikely to happen with any consistency so long as they are sharing time.
Chris Jones is a proven commodity and one of our most dependable options at the tackle position. He’s a quality DT1 with the potential for a big game on any given week. His modest tackle production and tendency to be inconsistent, however, keep him out of the elite tier for me.
Wharton, Derrick Nnadi, and Mike Pennel are in line to cover the rest of the playing time on the inside. They all logged fewer than 500 snaps in 2023. There is no reason to believe that will change this year.
- DE George Karlaftis – Low-end DE2 with upside on any given week
- DE Mike Danna – Depth at best
- DE Felix Anidike-Uzomah – Watch list sleeper coming off a disappointing rookie season
- DE Charles Omenihu – Productive when given enough opportunity
- DE BJ Thompson – No impact expected
- DE Malik Herring – No impact
- DT Chris Jones – Solid DT1 with big game upside but consistency questions
- DT Derrick Nnadi – No impact
- DT Mike Pennel – No impact
- DT Tershawn Wharton – No impact.
Go Deeper: See our defensive end projections here >>>
Go Deeper: See our defensive tackle projections here >>>
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