Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 19: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville defense bottomed out in 2021. They improved but were not exactly good in 2022. The Jaguars got a little closer last year. There were still some unflattering statistics, such as passing yards, where they ranked 26th, and sacks, where they ranked 25th. They allowed too many long runs, with thirteen of them 20+ yards. In most important categories, however, the Jaguars were middle of the pack or better.

The run defense was fairly stingy, ranking ninth in yards and fifteenth in yards per carry. Their 7.1 yards per pass attempt was mediocre, and their 40 sacks were respectable. Jacksonville allowed the 17^th most points, another mediocre number, but there was one important category they did well in. Only seven teams created more takeaways.

Mediocre was not good enough, especially when considering the contribution of the defense to Jacksonville's late-season collapse, so they parted ways with defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell the day after the season ended. The reins have now been handed to Ryan Nielsen.

Nielsen spent one season as an NFL defensive coordinator. In 2023, the Falcons showed great improvement under his leadership. He became available after Atlanta cleaned house following the season, which had little to do with the performance of the defense. His Falcons went from the gutter to a top-ten pass defense, helped greatly by a pass rush that doubled its production from 21 sacks in 2022 to 42 last year. 

The organization did not use much draft or free-agent capital on the defense in 2023. This year the investment was more significant. The defensive line and secondary got plenty of attention with free agents and draft picks added at both levels. There will be a new face or two in the trenches but the biggest changes are likely to come in the secondary where there could be a lot of open competition for starting jobs.

Defensive Linemen

Anyone who claims to have predicted Josh Allen's breakout season is lying through their teeth.  He had 25 sacks over his first four years combined. His 17.5 last season was tied for second most in the league. The dilemma for IDP managers is figuring out if this is a career outlier or the beginning of a trend.

Allen is not a stranger to good tackle production. His 2020 season was lost to injury, in each of Allen's other four years in the league, he has at least 32 solos. While his career-best of 70 combined stops came in 2021, Allen has at least 57 in each of the last three seasons, so we can safely count on that production. The sack numbers are where it gets sketchy.

At 43-23-17.5 with 3 turnovers, Allen made his first appearance in the top five last year. He managed ten sacks as a rookie in 2019 with seven in 2021 and six in 2022. The first step in determining between a fluke and a trend is to identify the trigger. What was different in 2023 for Allen? It was not playing time, there was no significant change to his supporting cast, nor was there a significant change in scheme. That is not a good sign.

There are positives with Allen as well. As I pointed out in last year's column, he was near the top of the league in quarterback pressures in 2022, so we should not have been surprised that he turned some of them into sacks. The short but impressive track record of his new coordinator is a plus, as is Allen's age at 26. There is a chance the light just came on for him in year five, but all things considered, drafting him among the top ten at the position would be risky. The tackle numbers have been consistent, but don't bet on a 17-sack repeat. Twelve or so would be a more realistic expectation. 

Jacksonville used the first pick in the draft on Travon Walker in 2022. His rookie campaign produced a modest three-and-a-half sacks. Year two was much better. When entering the league, many scouts had Walker tagged as a great run defender who could contribute as a pass rusher but not dominate. From that perspective, his double-digit sacks in year two were a pleasant surprise.

Walker is strong versus the run, holding ground and setting the edge well when teams run at him. He is not a blazing-fast upfield pass rusher. While he lacks the high-end upside of a guy like Allen, Walker turned in 49 combined tackles as a rookie and 52 last year. I'm not sure double-digit sacks will be a regular thing for him, but 50-55 combined tackles and 7-10 sacks with a turnover or two and a couple of swatted passes could make him a solid third edge for us.

An injury to Allen or Walker could be a devastating blow to the Jaguars' chances. Tackle Roy Robertson-Harris was third on the team in sacks last year with three and a half. Meanwhile, the only other Jacksonville edge defender to record a sack was K'Lavon Chaisson with two. The 2020 first-round pick never amounted to much and was jettisoned after last season.

Under Mike Caldwell, the team's down linemen were saddled with a lot of two-gap responsibilities. That could change with the new coordinator but it doesn't change the fact there are no DeForest Buckner types on this roster. Jacksonville has a group of quality veteran players in their interior line rotation. They got quicker and more athletic with the signing of Arik Armstead but that does not guarantee any IDP value.

Armstead turned in 54 combine tackles, 10 sacks, and 3 turnovers in 2019. That was by far the most productive of his nine seasons in the league. He had another good year in 2021, going 30-33-6. Outside of those two years, his career has been rather disappointing for a former 17^th overall pick. Armstead could be a good fit and has the potential to surprise, but let him show us something before devoting a valuable roster spot.

DaVon Hamilton lines up at the nose tackle position. He is a 335-pound road grader who is formidable against the run but doesn't offer much as a pass rusher beyond the ability to push the pocket. With 55 combined stops, a couple of sacks, and 2 takeaways, Hamilton was the number 26 interior lineman in 2022 before missing most of last season. If he is healthy, Hamilton could provide decent depth in leagues starting two tackles, but his ceiling is limited. 

Robertson-Harris and Adam Gotsis made up the rest of the tackle rotation last year. Those guys are still on the roster, but there will be competition for playing time. The Jaguars picked up Maason Smith in the second round, Jordan Jefferson in the fourth, and Myles Cole in the seventh.

Smith is a high-upside pick who has the measurables and skillset to become a disruptive force. What he does not have is experience. He missed time at LSU with a shoulder injury in 2021 and tore his ACL in 2022. Smith had 19 tackles and 4 sacks in nine games as a freshman in 2021 and played in twelve contests last year. Working mostly as a backup, he totaled 28 tackles with 2.5 sacks. Smith has the tools but a lot to learn. NFL.coms Lance Zierlein put it best when he said Smith has early-round traits but middle-round tape.

Jacksonville went back to LSU for Jefferson. He is a developmental prospect who needs to get stronger at the point of attack but the Jaguars like his quick feet and knack for getting into the backfield as a one-gap penetrator. Unlike Smith, Jefferson has no lack of experience having played in 42 games at West Virginia before adding 13 more after transferring to LSU. In 26 games over the last two seasons, he was 26-41-5.5 with 6 batted passes and a forced fumble.

These two players have their shortcomings but they fit the scheme and could be significant contributors this year. Cole might have to wait a little longer to get on the field. He is tall at six foot six and has a huge wingspan that helps him get off blocks and interfere with passing windows. At 278 pounds, his struggles as a point-of-attack defender could spell a move to the edge at some point.  

• Edge Josh Allen – Priority second starter with top-ten ceiling
• Edge Travon Walker – Solid depth with marginal upside
• Edge Trevis Gipson – Injury sleeper with limited potential
• Edge Yasir Abdullah – No impact
• Edge De'Shaan Dixon -  No impact
• DT Roy Robertson-Harris – No impact
• DT Arik Armstead – Watchlist worthy
• DT Adam Gotsis – No impact
• DT Davon Hamilton – Depth in leagues starting two tackles
• DT Maason Smith – Watchlist dynasty prospect
• DT Jordan Jefferson - Watchlist dynasty prospect

Linebackers

Jacksonville's linebackers might be the easiest assessment in the league. They were one of the steadily increasing number of teams to play two of them on virtually every defensive snap last year. Foye Oluokun played 1110 of 1112 on his way to a third consecutive season as the fantasy game's top linebacker and his fourth top-ten in a row. He has triple-digit solo tackles in three straight seasons as well. Oluokun is not a one-trick pony, though. On top of the tackle totals, he has 9 sacks, 19 takeaways, and 21 pass breakups over the last four seasons. Not only was he the number one linebacker last year, Oluokun outscored second-place Bobby Okereke by 20 points. He is the elite-tier, hands-down, number-one linebacker, and in most formats, he should be the first defender off the draft board.

Despite Oluokun soaking up so many stats, Devin Lloyd also manages to be relevant. The numbers are far less impressive, but his 10.5 points per game ranked 29^th as a rookie in 2022, and his 11.4 average was 22^nd last year. Lloyd struggled as a rookie and was benched briefly before regaining the job. There were no such struggles in year two, though he did miss two games early in the season with a minor injury.

Lloyd put up solid tackle totals in 2023, going 75-52-0 in fifteen games. The team would like to see more explosive plays from him, though. He had three picks and two fumble recoveries in 2022 so they know the ability is there. Yet Lloyd slipped to just two recoveries last season.

With Oluokun signed through the 2027 season and Lloyd through 2026, nothing is likely to change here for at least a couple of years. There is at least some risk that the new defensive coordinator could throw a wrench into things, but that seems doubtful. Lloyd is stuck in the sidekick role where he should continue to put up low LB2 or priority LB3 numbers.

Chad Muma was the only other off-ball linebacker to get on the field for Jacksonville last year. He totaled 145 snaps, with 107 coming in the two games Lloyd missed. Muma is a high-quality backup who could be a starter for many other teams. He will be productive if the opportunity arises and is undoubtedly counting the days until he can escape Jacksonville for a team that will let him play. Like Lloyd, Muma is still on his rookie contract and locked in until 2026. 

• ILB Foye Oluokun – Elite LB1 on a tier of his own
• ILB Devin Lloyd – Target as a priority third starter with low LB2 upside
• ILB Chad Muma – Arguably the best backup off-ball linebacker in the league
• ILB Ventrell Miller – No impact expected

Defensive Backs

There are starting jobs up for grabs in the Jaguars secondary. Former starters, Rayshawn Jenkins and Darious Williams are gone, opening up those positions, but even the returning starters are not a lock. The organization added four free agents to the mix, along with third- and fifth-round picks.

Fourth-year man Andre Cisco is penciled in at free safety. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued him since he was drafted in the third round back in 2021. Cisco is a big play threat with seven interceptions and eight turnovers total over his two years as the starter. He will even put up good tackle totals once in a while but Cisco tends to vanish for long stretches. He opened last season with 24 tackles, 8 assists, and 4 turnovers in the first six games. He was 18-12-.5 with a week 18 interception the rest of the way.

Cisco could face strong competition from Former Packer Darnell Savage, who spent most of the last five seasons as a starter. The two have a lot in common when it comes to playstyle, production, and injury issues. Both have missed time in recent years, and both have played through nagging injuries regularly.

Antonio Johnson is expected to get the first shot at the strong safety job. A fifth-round pick of the Jaguars in 2023, he was groomed for the job as a rookie. Johnson only played 171 snaps in his first season with most of them coming after week twelve. His 13 tackles and 4 assists are nothing to get excited about, but the team likes his splash play potential. Despite the limited action, Johnson managed two interceptions, forced a fumble, recorded a sack, and knocked down three passes. 

Johnson was productive at Texas A&M as well, recording 148 combined stops with 2 sacks, 5 turnovers, and 6 passes defended in 21 games over his last two seasons. He has good size, is fast enough, and packs a physical punch in run support. He is far from a lock to be the week one starter, but if he is, Johnson will probably be the best IDP target in this secondary.

Cisco will have competition from Savage and Johnson could be pushed hard by Terrell Edmunds. The 1018 first-round pick of the Steelers spent four seasons as a starter before moving to Tennessee in 2023. He is big at six feet one and 217 pounds and has the speed to chase down runners.  Edmunds was not as physical as might be expected for a player of his stature and was not much of a playmaker for the Steelers or Titans. Edmunds' five seasons as a pro have produced six turnovers and five sacks.   

Andrew Wingard seems to find his way onto the field often for the Jaguars. He is a serviceable veteran who has plenty of NFL starts under his belt but is not a full-time starter.

The top two corner spots are not exactly wide open with Tyson Campbell and Ronald Darby the heavy favorites. Campbell was the team's second-round pick in 2021 and has been a starter from day one. He is a solid and dependable cover man who would make a quality number two corner for most teams but has been forced into the lead role because Jacksonville had no true number one. This year will be more of the same with Darby manning the other position.

From the IDP perspective, Campbell had a good second season with 70 total stops, 15 passes defended, and 6 takeaways. His other two seasons have not come close. Injuries were the culprit last year as he missed six games and was less than 100% in a few more. He is worth keeping an eye on once the season starts, but there is no need to use the roster spot unless he shows something early on.

Ronald Darby has become the league's most popular rent-a-corner. A 2015 second-round pick of the Bills, Darby joins his sixth team in nine seasons. He is a good veteran corner with plenty of starting experience. Darby has been productive in the box scores for short spells but has never been able to sustain a job or consistently post useful numbers.  

The rookies are the wild cards here. Both Jarrian Jones and Deantre Prince have the physical tools to play in the NFL but both have things they need to work on. Over the years we have seen a lot of mid to late-round corners, and even a few undrafted guys, play well as they learned on the job. If Jacksonville had established veterans at all three positions, the young guys might have to develop for a year or two before getting a look. The Jaguars might not have that luxury.

Regardless of who earns the starting jobs at safety and corner, someone has to play over the slot. Last year the team used a combination of players from both the safety and corner positions. The bottom line here is that the Jaguars secondary is a work in progress with no sure IDP targets.  

• FS Andre Cisco – Inconsistent and injury-prone but worth a shot as a bye-week flier
• SS Antonio Johnson – Sleeper with S3 or better upside
• FS Darnell Savage – Dark horse candidate with a low ceiling
• SS Terrell Edmunds – Watchlist player looking for a good fit
• SS Andrew Wingard –  Marginal impact at best
• FS Daniel Thomas – No impact
• CB Tyson Campbell – Possible CB2
• CB Ronald Darby – Marginal impact at best
• CB Jarrian Jones – Rookie corner rule could be in affect
• CB Deantre Prince – Rookie corner watchlist
• CB Montaric Brown – No impact
• CB Tre Flowers – No impact

That's a wrap for part 19. I'll round out the AFC South next with the Titans. 

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