Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 17: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts' defense was all over the place in 2022. They did some things well and struggled in other areas. The team made a coaching change before the 2023 season but retained defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, hoping the continuity would make them better last year. What they got was more of the same.

Indianapolis ranked 24th in rushing yards allowed, 19th in yards per carry, and allowed fourth most points on the ground, but gave up just 11 runs of 20+ yards. The pass defense was middle of the pack in yards, finished in the bottom half of the league in yards per attempt, and allowed 54 plays of 20+ yards, but was top twelve in scoring. Even the big play stats were all over the place with the team's 51 sacks ranking fourth and their 15 interceptions 18th. The column that matters most to NFL teams is scoring. The Colts did not fare well there, with only four teams giving up more total points.

When you put it all together, this unit was mediocre in 2023. Looking at what they did in free agency and the draft, there is not much reason to expect anything different in 2024. Their biggest defensive addition in free agency was a backup tackle who could see some rotational snaps. They got a potentially great pass rusher in the first round of the draft, but he plays the edge position that was not a team need. On day three, they picked up two safeties and a corner. All of whom are unlikely to have big roles as rookies. It seems foolish to keep doing the same things with the same players and expect different results.

Defensive Linemen

The Indianapolis defensive line includes one of the best tackle tandems in the league. Grover Stewart mans the one-technique position. At six foot four and 314 pounds, he is not the biggest to play the position but he is one of the more productive. Stewart is a hard-to-move rock in the middle of the run defense. He holds up well against double teams and does a great job of getting off blocks to make plays. He is a big man without much wiggle as a pass rusher but will contribute by bull-rushing blockers and forcing the passer out of the pocket.

Stewart turned in career-best numbers across the board in 2022. His 44 solo tackles tied Washington's Jonathan Allen and Colts teammate DeForest Buckner for the second-most by an interior lineman. Add career-highs in assists at 25 and sacks with 4, plus two batted passes and a fumble recovery, and Stewart was number eleven at the position. The big question for IDP managers was, would he repeat? The answer was no.

Seven seasons into his career, Stewart's big 2022 campaign remains an outlier. He missed six games last year but do the math before assuming that was the reason for his production of 23-18-0.5. His per-game average of barely over six points, ranked 31st. Stewart might be roster-worthy as depth in leagues with deep rosters or more than twelve teams. For the rest of us, he is not worth committing the roster space for a guy we can pick up later as a bye-week flier.

There are no such concerns with Buckner, who is a perennial tier-one elite. In eight seasons as a pro, he has never totaled fewer than 35 solo or 59 combined stops. Buckner is one of the league's premier inside pass rushers with 68 career sacks. His personal best of 12 came in 2018, and he has at least seven in each of the last six seasons. He has eight forced fumbles and seven recoveries in the previous five years and consistently knocks down at least three passes a season. Most importantly for IDP managers, since 2018 Buckner has not finished outside the top five with back-to-back number ones in 2019 and 2020 and a return to the top in 2023. While he is not a candidate to be the first defensive player off the board, there is no argument against making him the first defensive tackle taken.  

The 2022 Colts got little from the rest of their interior linemen. Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson II, and Adetomiwa Adebowore combined for 23 tackles, 21 assists, and 4.5 sacks. Former Dolphin Raekwon Davis should find his way onto the field for a few snaps every week, but the Colts are not a team that rotates several players evenly. If they stay healthy, Stewart and Buckner could each see 800 snaps while no one else at the position is a lock to play 350.

Last year's Colts used a three-man rotation at defensive end. In a 2021 draft that was thin at the top on pass rushers, the team used their first two picks on defensive ends Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, respectively. Last spring, they signed Samson Ebukam in free agency. All three players were on the field for between 622 and 702 plays, and all three paid dividends with at least eight sacks.

Ebukam led the way in sacks with 9.5, solo tackles with 39, and fantasy points with slightly over nine per game. Add in 3 forced fumbles and 17 assists, and he slipped into the conversation as a low-end second starter. Paye was not far behind, finishing inside the top 30 with 52 total stops, 8.5 sacks, and 4 turnovers. Lower tackle totals held Odeyingbo back despite his eight sacks and four takeaways.

All three of these players are back for 2024, which is why the selection of Laiatu Latu at fifteen overall, was somewhat of a shocker. Examining Latu's scouting reports and college production gives us perspective on what the organization may have been thinking. This is simply a player with so much talent and potential that they couldn't pass him up.

Latu is tall at 6-foot-5 and has a big wingspan that gives both blockers and quarterback fits. He runs a 4.64 in the forty-yard dash, which is not bad for a 259-pound man. He is mature beyond his years, using combination moves rarely seen by young players, has an exceptional motor, and doesn't stay blocked for long. While his tape will make you say wow, his production closes the deal. After transferring to UCLA in 2022, Latu started 25 games over the last two years. His career numbers with the Bruins were 136 tackles 23.5 sacks, and 7 turnovers.

Between the Colts' aggressive scheme and Latu's skill set and work ethic, he has the potential to become one of the elite at the edge position. He is, however, not without concerns, especially when it comes to IDP consideration. Latu suffered a fairly serious neck injury while at Washington that kept him out for the 2021 season. He was medically cleared and has shown no sign of the issue over the last two years, but some teams still had concerns. What I fear most is that he will become part of a four-man rotation and see about 600 snaps a season, at least until one of the other three moves on. Ebukam and Paye are signed through the 2025 season, but Odeyingbo will become a free agent at the end of this year.

There are two notes within this story for dynasty managers. Be patient for a year with Latu, and pick up Odeyingbo at the end of the season. He is good enough to be a starter in the league and a successful IDP target in the right situation.   

• DE Kwity Paye – Strong depth with limited upside
• DE Dayo Odeyingbo – Bye week fill-in and possible dynasty target
• DE Laiatu Latu – Depth with upside for re-draft managers, possible star long-term
• DE Samson Ebukam – Priority depth with second-starter upside
• DE Tyquan Lewis – No impact
• DT DeForest Buckner – Elite DT1
• DT Grover Stewart – DT3 with marginal upside
• DT Taven Bryan – Injury sleeper with limited upside
• DT Adetomiwa Adebawore – No impact
• DT Eric Johnson - No impact

Linebackers

For the first time in three seasons, we can evaluate the Colts linebackers without speculating on Shaquille Leonard's availability. It sure makes the process a lot easier. Indianapolis is among the slowly growing number of teams deploying two full-time linebackers. Like all the others, both players stay on the field and hold serious IDP value.

In 2022, the Colts gave us a pair of top-ten linebackers. In his fifth season as a pro, Zaire Franklin came from nowhere to become one of six at the position to reach triple-digit solo tackles and one of eight to post 60 or more assists. Adding three sacks, three forced fumbles, and six pass breakups, the former seventh-round pick (2018), was top-five. In 2023, he was even better.

This time around, Franklin was one of three to hit triple-digits with his 107, second only to Foye Oluokun's 114. Meanwhile, his 74 assists were third behind Bobby Wagner and Azeez Al-Shaair. Franklin was not as much of a factor in the splash play department in 2023, but the increased tackle numbers made him one of two players with an average of more than 14.5 points per game. In what was a tight race for second, the one game he sat out dropped Franklin to fourth overall among linebackers by less than two points.

Franklin didn't play much over his first four seasons, so he is a low-mileage 28-year-old who is signed through the 2027 season. Two in a row proved that his 2022 was not a fluke, and we can count on him as a perennial elite-tier target for the foreseeable future.

Whether it was Leonard and Anthony Walker, Leonard and Bobby Okereke, or Okereke and Franklin, Indianapolis has consistently given us two quality prospects at linebacker in recent years. At this time last summer, I wrote that Bobby Okereke was two tackles shy of joining the triple-digit solo club in 2022. Had he not lost snaps to Leonard in a couple of games and E.J. Speed late in the season, the Colts might have given us two of the top five at the position. This is why all IDP managers, especially those with Leonard, need to grab Speed at the end of their drafts.

Speed is a good player and has been highly productive, considering his role. Let's put his numbers into perspective. Early in 2023, he was the team's third linebacker, sharing time with Leonard. Over the first ten games, Speed only played more than 55% of the snaps in week five when Leonard was unavailable. The organization faced reality and moved on from Leonard after week ten, putting Speed in the lineup on at least 90% of the snaps over his final six games (he missed week 14). At the end of the season, he had played 728 snaps, which was less than 58% of the team's defensive plays. Yet Speed finished the season at 78-24-1 with 3 forced fumbles and 4 passes defended, for an average of 9.6 points per game. Imagine what he will do in 2024 with 450 or so more chances.  

With the production we have seen from Colts linebackers over the last several years, knowing the backups could be important. When Franklin missed a game last season, Segun Olubi got the call. Not so coincidentally, he put up 15 fantasy points in that game and 12 more on 21 plays in week 18. With no additions at the second level, Olubi should be the next man up if Franklin misses time.

When Speed missed week 14, it was converted safety Ronnie Harrison replacing him. While Harrison also made two starts at strong safety at the end of the year, the Colts consider him a linebacker first. He didn't do much with the opportunities but is capable of useful production if called upon.

• MLB Zaire Franklin – Elite-tier LB1
• WLB E.J. Speed – Priority LB2 with sneaky top-twelve potential
• MLB Segun Olubi – Injury sleeper
• SLB Cameron McGrone – No impact expected
• SLB Grant Stuard – No impact
• WLB Ronnie Harrison – Deep injury sleeper behind Speed

Defensive Backs

There are not many new faces in the defensive backs meeting room, but there could be some in the starting lineup. Their 2022 third-round pick, Nick Cross, started his first game as a rookie and bombed so badly that he was pulled at halftime of week two, and his picture was seen on milk cartons for most of two seasons. The opportunity to redeem himself came late in 2023 when the coaching staff realized their mistake. Because of his size and intimidating physicality, they had been playing him at strong safety. Once they shifted Cross to free, he was a different player.

Cross has been working with the starting defense this offseason and, barring injury, appears locked in at the position. The team's free safeties have not been all that fantasy-friendly in recent years so don't get overly excited about Cross, but he is worth a spot on the watchlist.

Indianapolis realized they had cast Julian Blackmon in the wrong mold as well. At least they made that discovery before the regular season. As a result, Blackmon moved into the starting lineup at strong safety. It was a good move for the Colts and a great one for fantasy managers.  

Blackmon missed the final three games. Through week fifteen he was 65-21-0 with 6 turnovers, 8 passes defended, and was the fantasy game's fifth-ranked safety. He reached double-digit points in ten of fourteen games and at least eight to two more. He was a free agent at the end of the season but the Colts inked him to a one-year deal. If he proves that last season was not a fluke, they could look to extend him this year once some of their dead money from Leonard is cleared.

The team used a pair of fifth-round picks on safeties Jaylon Carlies and Jaylin Simpson. Carlies is a 6-foot-3, 227-pound thumper who will likely be asked to transition to linebacker. Simpson is undersized at 179 pounds, with speed and ball skills that could point him toward a career as a corner. For now, both are developmental prospects, with third-year man Rodney Thomas II set to be the third safety and possibly the top backup to both positions.

Consistent fantasy production from the corner position is hard to find. Kenny Moore II is one of the few we can count on. He joined the Colts as an undrafted rookie in 2017 and has been a mainstay in their lineup since his second year. If not for an injury-shortened 2019, Moore would have at least 64 solo stops in five of the last six seasons. He makes big plays, with 8 career sacks, 17 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, a recovery, and 3 scores on his resume.

Moore was the fantasy game's number two corner in 2021, when he led the position with career-highs in solo tackles at 82 (14 more than anyone else), turnovers with 5, and passes defended at 13. The only time, other than 2019, that Moore fell short of the top 20, was in 2022 when he was moved from his traditional slot role to the outside. The coaching staff is unlikely to make that mistake again. He probably won't be the fantasy game's top corner this season, but no one is more likely to finish in the top twelve.

Last year's second-round pick, Julius Brents, is penciled in as one of the starters on the outside. His rookie campaign was interrupted by injuries, but when he played, Brents looked the part. The first of his four early season starts came in week two. Over those games, he totaled 20 tackles, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, and 3 passes defended, reaching at least 13 fantasy points in three of them. Brents was out until week 15 and was not as productive in his four games at the end of the season. There's not much to go on, but his numbers over those four early games are enough to warrant late-round consideration or at least a spot on the watchlist.

Jaylon Jones, Dallis Flowers, and Darrell Baker Jr. all made starts for the team last year. Jones seemed to emerge and is penciled in at that spot entering camp. They all flashed at times but there is nothing to suggest useful box score production anytime soon.    

• FS Nick Cross – Watchlist player in a less-than-stellar situation
• SS Julian Blackmon – Consistent S1 target with top-five potential
• FS Rodney Thomas – No impact expected
• SS Jaylon Carlies – Developmental rookie who may move to linebacker
• SS Jaylin Simpson – Developmental rookie who could see time at corner or in the slot
• CB Kenny Moore II – Perennial top-twelve corner
• CB Julius Brents – High upside sleeper
• CB Jaylon Jones – Marginal expectations
• CB Dallis Flowers – Injury sleeper
• CB Darrell Baker Jr.– Injury sleeper

That does it for part 17 of this year's pre-season offering. The Texans are next on the agenda.  

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