The following feature is a free preview of our IDP content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys ELITE Subscription, and you'll get all of our IDP content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
The Texans began their overhaul with the hiring of DeMeco Ryans last year. The second objective was to establish cornerstones on both sides of the ball. Check that off the list with the selections of C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. within the first three picks of the draft. Houston had a limited budget and a lot of holes to fill on defense, so they brought in a slew of bargain-priced veterans and added a dash of third–day draft picks. From that point on, the 2023 season was an evaluation process. The new coaching staff moved players around, and many got the opportunity to prove themselves.
Houston played slightly better than mediocre defense last year. Considering the roster they were working with, the coaching staff did a good job of getting the most from their players. They were good against the run but not very good versus the pass. They were 16th in takeaways, tied for 13th in sacks, and managed to allow the 11th fewest points.
The organization parted with most of last year's free agents and added another slew of new ones. The difference is, this time they had money to spend. Money can't buy happiness but it purchased the Texans a lot of talent and possibly a championship-caliber defense.
The team was not finished after free agency, adding a corner in round two, a safety in round three, a linebacker in the sixth, and two defensive linemen in the seventh. This unit could easily be looking at six new starters and possibly more. It might take a while for all the pieces to jell. Once they do, this defense could be tough to score on.
Defensive Linemen
Will Anderson didn't set any rookie records that I'm aware of, but he performed like a third-overall pick on the field and, later in the season, in the box scores as well. As a 21-year-old rookie, Anderson totaled 45 combined tackles and 7 sacks in 13 games. Imagine what he is capable of when he reaches his full potential.
For a glimpse of what that might look like, check out Anderson's numbers over the second half of last season. He consistently put up good tackle numbers from the start but had one sack over the first seven games. In his final six games, Anderson added six more, including four in his last two outings. He was a low-end second starter or a good number three for us as a rookie. Those numbers barely scratched the surface of his potential. It's just a matter of how long it takes to get there.
Anderson was not the team's best edge defender. That honor went to Jonathan Greenard, who had a breakout season. With 35 tackles, including 15 for loss, 16 assists, and 12.5 sacks, he looks like a rising star. Most young, rebuilding teams would make every effort to retain such a player when he hits free agency. Not the Texans. Instead, they went all in on free agency's crown jewel at the position, Danielle Hunter.
There are few players at the position that Hunter would not be an upgrade over. He put up twelve-and-a-half sacks as a second-year player in 2016. The only thing that has stopped him from reaching double-digit sacks every year since then were injuries in 2017, 2020, and 2021. Hunter has 14 or more sacks in three of his last four seasons not affected by injuries. Adding to his fantasy value, he also has at least 50 solo tackles and 64 combined stops in each of those seasons.
Hunter had a major scare when a neck injury caused him to miss the entire 2020 season. He then missed much of 2021 with a torn pectoral. Since that time, he has been back on track. In 2023, Hunter set new career highs with 54 solo tackles, 23 tackles for loss, 16.5 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. In nearly any other season, those numbers would put him at the top of the position. Last year, they were good enough for third.
Hunter is healthy and, at age 29, is at the top of his game. He is a candidate for the 2024 sack title and an elite-tier IDP target. He already has four top-three seasons on his resume. It could be five once this one is in the books.
Greenard and Anderson played between 60 and 70% of the snaps regularly in 2023. Hunter rarely came off the field for the Vikings, consistently logging better than 90% of the playing time. With Anderson in his second season and settled in, and a significant drop off from the starters to anyone else on the roster, it would not be a surprise to see both Anderson and Hunter on the field over 80% of the time going forward.
Houston's starting tackles from last year are gone, and the top four on the current depth chart are all new to the team. Based on the raw numbers, it is hard to call Denico Autry and Foley Fatukasi a big upgrade over Sheldon Rankins and Malik Collins. We should probably consider this one a push.
At 34 years of age and entering his 11th season, Autry is coming off the most productive season of his career. At 30-20-11 with a couple of turnovers, he was the fantasy game's seventh-ranked tackle in 2023. It was his best, but not Autry's first good season. He has at least seven sacks in five of the last six campaigns, including four straight. While he is productive as a pass rusher, Autry has not made enough tackles at his previous stops to be a consistent option for IDP managers. That could change with a new team, but don't count on him as more than a decent third man or bye-week cover.
Fatukasi projects as the other starting tackle, though that is not written in stone. He is a strong anchor for the run defense but has little to offer as a pass rusher. Khalil Davis, Kurt Hinsh, and Tim Settle will all be in the mix for a piece of the action, but none of them give us any reason to expect more than marginal numbers.
- Edge Will Anderson Jr. – Poised for a breakout in year two
- Edge Danielle Hunter – Elite tier Edge1
- Edge Derek Barnett – Injury sleeper with marginal upside
- Edge Dylan Horton – Injury sleeper at best
- Edge Solomon Byrd – Developmental rookie
- DT Denico Autry – DT3 with week-to-week upside
- DT Foley Fatukasi – No impact
- DT Tim Settle – No impact
- DT Mario Edwards – No impact
- DT Khalil Davis – No impact
Linebackers
Houston's linebacker position was a game of musical chairs last year. It seemed like every week, there was some tweak in the lineup. Christian Harris, Blake Cashman, Denzel Perryman, and Henry To'oto'o all had their chances. In the end, no one played more than roughly 80% of the snaps or was more than a hit-or-miss fantasy option.
Cashman looked like the best of the group, both on the field and in the box scores. He started eight games between weeks five and thirteen, playing virtually every snap in seven. Cashman's season ended as it usually does, with him battling injuries and missing time.
Henry To'oto'o got his chance early in his rookie season. The fifth-round pick landed a starting job in week two, but it didn't last long. The coaching staff quickly realized that To'oTo'o does a lot of things well, but coverage is not one of them. He held a three-down role over the four games leading up to the team's week seven bye. After the bye, To'oto'o saw 87 snaps the rest of the season, most of those as a strong side linebacker in relatively rare, three-linebacker looks.
Perryman got his looks along the way but once again proved to be no more than a marginal two-down starter at the NFL level.
Christian Harris was a starter for most of the season. He moved around early on and had an inconsistent role for much of the year. Harris played 72% of the snaps or less in eight games, sometimes way less. He was even benched at one point early in the year. Harris would eventually stick in the weak-side role, where he played over 90% of the snaps in seven of the last eight regular season games.
Harris may or may not be the long-term answer as one of the starting linebackers. He is, however, the answer for this year and is under contract through 2025. If the Texans deploy two full-time linebackers as anticipated, Harris could be in line for a breakout fantasy season. In those games down the stretch, he averaged six tackles and three assists with a sack, forced fumble, five passes defended, and almost 13 fantasy points per game.
Perryman and Cashman are gone, and the Texans were able to land arguably the best off-ball linebacker in free agency to replace them.
Azeez Al-Shaair made the 49ers roster as an undrafted free agent in 2019. He didn't see much action until 2021, when Dre Greenlaw missed 14 games. Al-Shaair made the opportunity count. He was impressive on the field, showing strong cover skills, great range, and a knack for the big play. On a mere 730 plays, he managed 104 combined tackles with a pair of sacks, four turnovers, and five pass breakups. Al-Shaair returned to the third linebacker role with San Francisco when Greenlaw returned in 2022
When Al-Shaair hit free agency in 2023, the Titans remembered how well he played. They signed him to start on the inside in their 3-4. He performed well and was a tackling machine for Tennessee, totaling 163 combined stops, but the position limited his playmaking ability. The result was two sacks and one recovery in the big play columns.
When Al-Shaair hit free agency again this offseason, the Texans quickly signed him through the 2026 season. Most people expect him to be the team's middle backer. That is a strong possibility, but he could end up on the weak side in a Houston scheme that closely resembles that of the 49ers. We should not overlook the fact that Ryans was the linebackers coach in San Francisco when Al-Shaair had his breakout season and was their defensive coordinator the following year.
At 228 pounds, Al-Shaair is a little undersized for the middle backer role. For IDP managers, it doesn't matter where he lines up as long as he's on the field. He made the top fifteen with Tennessee last season. The top ten is possible, if not probable, in 2024.
Dynasty managers might want to keep an eye on Jamal Hill. The former safety is a project for the Texans and has a long way to go before getting on the field, but he is blazing fast for a linebacker with good man-to-man cover skills. His scouting report sounds a lot like that of Al-Shaair coming out of college.
- MLB Azeez Al-Shaair – Priority LB2 with top-ten potential
- WLB Christian Harris – Target as a third starter with some risk but strong upside
- SLB Henry To'oto'o – No impact expected
- MLB Neville Hewitt – Injury sleeper and special teamer
- WLB Jamal Hill – Dynasty deep sleeper
Defensive Backs
Jalen Pitre exploded onto the IDP scene as a rookie in 2022. His impressive stats included a league-high (for a defensive back) 99 solo stops, 48 assists, a sack, and 5 interceptions for a ranking of first among all DBs. So, what happened in his second season? The new coaching staff, new scheme, and a switch to free safety cut his production nearly in half.
The Texans were a much better defense in 2023 than they were in Pitre's rookie season, and they are looking even better for 2024, especially at the linebacker position. Safeties in similar schemes have often not been fantasy-friendly in recent years, with free safeties generally having little or no IDP value. Pitre reached double-digit points in three games last year, with 20% of his point total coming in one of those games. Let someone else look at his rookie numbers and roll the dice. Chances are, they will get snake eyes.
Jimmie Ward hails from San Francisco, where he, too, played under Coach Ryans. Ward is comfortable in the scheme and is a good player. The problem throughout his career has been injuries. The ten-year veteran has played just four full seasons since coming into the league and has missed eleven games over the last two seasons. Even when healthy, Ward's production has been nothing to speak of.
The Texans brought back Eric Murray and M.J. Stewart and signed Lonnie Johnson to provide veteran depth at safety. With Ward's track record, they may need one or more of those guys. They also drafted Calen Bullock in the third round. Most draft experts consider that a reach for a guy who excels in coverage but struggles as a run defender. With a little grooming, he could find a home in the slot.
The Texans kept Derek Stingley and replaced nearly everyone else at the corner position. Stingly was the third overall pick in 2022. He's been impressive when healthy but has struggled to stay on the field. He made a lot of tackles over his nine games as a rookie but was short on game-changing plays. Stingley missed seven games last season. When he returned in week eleven, he was the playmaker the team expected. Stingley's tackle totals slipped, but he intercepted five passes over seven games. We haven't seen enough to tell if he can be an IDP factor over a full season, but there is a possibility.
Free agency brought former first-round picks Jeff Okudah and C.J. Henderson to Houston. They were joined by Myles Bryant and Mike Ford. The team then used a second-round pick on Kamari Lassiter. The new additions are set to compete for the corner job opposite Stingley and the slot position. There are too many ifs and buts to put a value on any of these guys right now. That said, keep an eye on Lassiter, who could be a good fit as an aggressive slot defender.
- FS Jalen Pitre – Marginal IDP value
- SS Jimmy Ward – Injury risk outweighs any potential
- FS Calen Bullock – Developmental rookie
- FS M.J. Stewart – No impact
- FS Lonnie Johnson – No impact
- SS Eric Murray – No impact
- CB Derek Stingley – Worth picking up late as a CB3 with upside
- CB Jeff Okudah – Watchlist worthy
- CB Kamari Lassiter – Watchlist/Sleeper
- CB Myles Bryant – No impact expected
- CB Mike Ford – No impact
- CB C.J. Henderson – Long shot at best
That's a wrap on this chapter. The Jaguars are up next.
Enjoy this article? Find more from John here.