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Last year's Packers were bad on defense. Maybe not historically bad, but bad enough to prompt not just personnel changes but a complete reboot of the defense, including a new coordinator and a completely different scheme.
It has been fifteen years since Green Bay last ran an even front as their base defense. It will not be a traditional 4-3 under new coordinator Jeff Hafley. Hafley hails from the San Francisco coaching tree, where he last coached in the NFL in 2018. Since then, his defenses at Boston College and Ohio State have featured two linebackers and five defensive backs with a single high safety. It's a look that is becoming popular in the NFL.
There is nearly always a roster transformation and a learning curve when making such sweeping changes. The team must evaluate returning personnel to see who fits and where, and then address the positions of need once those have been identified. We might not see a big statistical upgrade right away but the Packers should get better as the season progresses and everyone settles in.
The personnel transformation is in full swing this offseason with the team signing arguably the best safety available in free agency in Xavier McKinney, and then adding a pair of linebackers and three safeties in the first five rounds of the draft.
Defensive Linemen
When teams move between three and four-man fronts, the initial personnel shuffle usually involves edge defenders. The Packers have made a significant investment in pass rushers over the last few years so they will give those players a chance to fit in. Rashan Gary was a first-round pick in 2019, Preston Smith was a second-round pick by Washington in 2015 before signing with the Packers in 2019, and Lukas Van Nes was selected thirteenth overall by the team last year.
One advantage this trio has over most 3-4 pass rushers making the transition is size. Many 3-4 edge guys are on the small side, between 245 and 260 pounds. All three of Green Bay's holdovers are at least 265 with Gary checking in at 277 and Van Ness 272. Another factor is that they have all played outside in four-man fronts before - Gary and Van Ness during their college careers and Smith in college and early in his NFL career.
The scheme change could be a plus for all three guys. Gary has been a good player for the Packers but has neither lived up to his first-round status nor been an IDP factor thus far. He is still looking for his first double-digit sack production, though he has reached nine twice. It is modest tackle totals that have held him back the most. He has never reached 30 solo stops in a season and has a career-best of 46 combined. Considering that he is under contract through the 2027 season, the Packers would be ahead of the game if Gary makes a successful transition.
Smith has been somewhat fantasy-relevant throughout his career but only as depth for the most part. He slipped into the top 20 in 2019 with a total of 55 tackles, 12 sacks (the only double-digit total of his career), and 2 turnovers, and again in 2022 when he was 38-21-8 with a couple of forced fumbles. Smith turns 32 in November but is signed through the 2026 season.
Van Ness had a somewhat quiet rookie season, totaling 32 tackles and four sacks on 443 plays as the fourth man in the rotation, but he might have the highest ceiling of the three. He has the size for a three-down role at six feet five and 272 pounds and has the frame to add more muscle. Van Ness earned the nickname Hercules from his Iowa teammates for his power and prowess as a bull-rusher. Despite impressing those around him, Van Ness was not very productive statistically. In two seasons with the Hawkeyes (26 games), he recorded 70 total tackles and 13 sacks. He will need to become more of a technician, adding some pass-rush moves and counters to his arsenal. Van Ness is stout against the run and, at age 22, is just scratching the surface of his potential.
The biggest IDP impact of the scheme change could be at the tackle positions. The previous scheme was a read-and-react style with two-gap responsibilities. The new look will be an aggressive, penetrating style with one-gap responsibilities. That could put third-year man Devonte Wyatt and grizzled veteran Kenny Clark in line for success both on the field and in box scores.
Clark has been one of the NFL's better 3-4 nose tackles in recent years. Despite the limitations of the scheme, he averaged 52 combined stops, 4.5 sacks, and 2 turnovers and has been a borderline second starter or quality depth for IDP managers over the last seven seasons. Clark is both powerful and mobile for a man of 314 pounds. He has made a living of stacking up double teams and getting off blocks to make plays. While he is not a threat to reach double-digit sacks, Clark has some wiggle and is not reliant on the bull rush as his only option on passing downs.
Clark worked almost exclusively at nose tackle in recent years but has played the outside (three-technique) position in the past. He should transition smoothly to the new scheme and have a chance to be more than a DT3 going forward.
Wyatt was a first-round pick of the team in 2022. He failed to make an impact at what was then a deep position for the team. Dean Lowery and Jarran Reed moved on in 2023, and Wyatt's playing time nearly tripled in year two. He managed a respectable 38 total stops with 5.5 sacks in the Packers' four-man interior rotation.
Wyatt rotated with Tedarrell Slaton and Karl Brooks last year. At 304 pounds, Wyatt is smaller, more athletic, and a much better pass rusher than the 330-pound Slaton, who could be more of a short-yardage situational player in this scheme. This is a situation to watch when things heat up this summer, but I expect Wyatt to come out of camp as the starter and possibly have a breakout season.
Brooks had a surprisingly good rookie campaign last year. The sixth-round pick was a steady part of the rotation, seeing about 30% of the action on the season. On 441 plays, Brooks contributed 20 combined tackles, 4 sacks, 4 batted passes, and 3 turnovers. He should be a better scheme fit than Slaton and could see significant action as the third tackle in the rotation, especially on passing downs.
- Edge Preston Smith – Depth with a little upside
- Edge Rashan Gary – Sleeper with a low edge2 ceiling
- Edge Lukas Van Ness – Sleeper with good long-term potential
- Edge Kingsley Enagbare – Marginal expectations as the fourth edge
- DT Devonte Wyatt – Strong sleeper with DT2 potential
- DT Kenny Clark – Low-end DT2 with a little upside
- DT Karl Brooks – Injury sleeper
- DT Tedarrell Slaton – No impact
- DT Jonathan Ford – No impact
Linebackers
The good news for IDP managers is that, much like the 49ers, who never played a snap of dime coverage last year, Hafley's defenses play two full-time linebackers. The bad news is… well, there really is none. The hardest thing we have to do is figure out which two will be on the field, and that is not tough to do either.
When a team hires a new coordinator, one of his first responsibilities is to evaluate the roster and tell the organization what he needs to get the job done. Hafley's answer to that question was Edgerrin Cooper. This team already had a lot of talent along the front. What they needed was a leader and a difference-maker at middle linebacker. Cooper was the best linebacker in this year's draft and should be a great fit in the scheme.
When you read scouting reports on Cooper, the first things nearly all of them point out are his elite speed and highly physical play. He is not particularly quick to diagnose, and his anticipation is average. But his reaction time once he sees what is happening is lightning quick, and his urgency in pursuit is unbridled. Cooper is effective on the blitz, strong in coverage, and does a great job of slipping through blockers and trash to arrive at the ball with a bad attitude. The worst thing scouting reports have to say is that Cooper's overzealous pursuit and inconsistent discipline sometimes cause him to overrun plays.
The only concern I have, and it's a small one, is that he did not put up great numbers in college. In three years (35 games) as a starter at Texas A&M, he never produced more than 39 solo stops or 84 combined tackles. As a junior last year, Cooper was 39-45-8 with 3 turnovers. He will likely be playing the Fred Warner role and may well produce Fred Warner-like numbers.
The other linebacker spot belongs to 2022 first-round pick Quay Walker. Walker landed a starting job in week two of his rookie year and, by mid-season, had earned an every-down role. Walker is big by today's NFL standards at six feet four and 241 pounds. He, too, is a physical hitter with speed and coverage skills. The only concern with Walker is durability. It's way too early in his career to call him injury prone, but he missed two games with a concussion and battled a sore groin down the stretch in 2023.
If this defense looks as much like the 49ers as many expect, Cooper and Walker will have considerable fantasy value. The only real questions are who works in the middle and who handles the outside position. I'm not so sure that makes much difference when it comes to IDP value.
The Packers managed to come out of the off-season not only strong at the linebacker positions but deep as well. Isaiah McDuffie was a third-day pick in 2022. He saw some action as a rookie before landing in the starting lineup for most of his second season. At six foot one and 227 pounds, he would be undersized for the middle linebacker position but has the speed and skill set to be successful at the outside spot if needed.
Green Bay came back in the round after selecting Cooper and got his projected backup. Ty'Ron Hopper is not as fast as Cooper, nor does he have the coverage skills. He is, however, a fast and physical player who excels in run support. He has the physical tools to handle coverage, but there are lapses in his mechanics and decision making. That issue might be coachable. At this time, Hopper would have to be considered a downgrade from Cooper or Walker on the field, but he might not look so different in the box scores.
- MLB Edgerrin Cooper – High upside rookie
- WLB Quay Walker – Priority LB3 floor but more likely a good second starter
- WLB Isaiah McDuffie – Injury sleeper with limited upside
- MLB Ty'Ron Hopper – Injury/Dynasty sleeper
- WLB Eric Wilson – Special teams guy
Defensive Backs
The Packers have a pair of very capable corners in Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes. A big part of the team's struggles last year was because neither was available for much of the season. Stokes showed great promise as a rookie in 2021. Knee and foot injuries ended his second season in November of 2022. Stokes has appeared in three games since that time. In his first action of 2023, he lasted 4 plays before leaving with a hamstring injury that bothered him the rest of the season and eventually led to another stint on IR.
Alexander's injury history has not been much better. He missed eleven games in 2021 and ten more last year with a litany of problems. It started with a sore back, then a shoulder, and finally, an ankle that kept him out of the playoff game against Dallas.
Both players are on track for the 2024 season. They will go a long way toward improving the leaky Packers pass defense if they are available all year, but neither of these guys is likely to make a splash in fantasy leagues. In his one full season, Stokes managed 43 tackles, 11 assists, 15 pass breakups, and one interception. He had 26 total tackles and no other stats in eight games in 2022.
Alexander is another example of the rookie corner rule. His first season produced 61 solo tackles in 2018, his second 50 in 2019, and he has no more than 43 in any year since.
The Packers' safety positions are loaded with talent and potential, but there are some negatives to consider. Green Bay signed Xavier McKinney, arguably the best safety in this year's free-agent class. The 2020 second-round pick emerged in his second season. His 92 combined tackles and 5 interceptions added up to 10.2 points per game, ranking 15th. Mckinney missed the second half of 2022 with an injury but returned last year to go 78-38-0 with six turnovers to rank fifth.
McKinney's IDP value relies largely on his role. He has the versatility to play either safety position. McKinney played mostly deep/free safety for the Giants over his first three seasons before working mostly at strong safety last year.
This year's draft brought three more safeties to Green Bay. Javon Bullard in round two, Evan Williams in the fourth, and Kitan Oladapo in the fifth. Because of his draft status, Bullard is considered the favorite for one of the starting spots.
At five feet ten and 198 pounds, he is a bit undersized to play the box safety role. While at Georgia, he was highly successful, working mostly in the nickel role, lining up over the slot. Bullard's on-field success did not translate particularly well to the box scores, where in 26 games, he produced 102 total tackles and 4 picks.
The final starting spot in the secondary is anyone's guess entering training camp. Williams is sort of a linebacker in the body of a safety. He is more of a box safety type who is best when working in a run support role near the line and can be taken advantage of in coverage, especially if asked to cover down the field. Williams was productive in the box scores at Oregon last year, going 49-33-4.5 with three turnovers on fumbles.
Kitan Oladapo is the classis strong safety. He's big at 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds, is strong, tough, and aggressive with enough cover skills to stick with tight ends and running backs underneath. Oladapo was a team captain at Oregon State where he started for three years and put up good numbers, including big play contributions. Over 39 games he totaled 129 tackles, 94 assists, 6.5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 3 turnovers on fumbles, and 24 pass breakups.
The young safeties are not the only defensive backs that could be in the mix for the final starting spot. Returning corners Keisean Nixon, Corey Ballentine, and Carrington Valentine could have their names in the hat as well. Nixon was the Packers' most fantasy-productive defensive back last season when he logged 938 snaps, mostly as the slot corner.
If it was not already tough enough to identify the best IDP target here, there is this to consider. The two teams that most resemble what I think the Green Bay secondary will look like are the 49ers and Texans. The highest-ranking defensive backs from those teams in 2023 were Talanoa Hufanga, who ranked 23rd when he was injured in week ten, and the Texans Jalen Pitre, whose average of 8.2 points per game was 48th among safeties.
There are two things to look for here: who are the three starters at safety/slot, and who is stuck in the single high role? Whoever lines up as the deep man will face a challenge when it comes to statistical production.
- FS Javon Bullard – Risky target with a high ceiling but low floor
- SS/FS Xavier McKinney – Highest floor of Packers DBs
- SS Kitan Oladapo – Good potential if he lands the SS job
- SS Evan Williams - Good potential if he lands the SS job
- SS Anthony Johnson – No impact expected
- CB Jaire Alexander – Marginal value
- CB Eric Stokes – No IDP impact
- CB Keisean Nixon – Watchlist player
- CB Carrington Valentine – No impact expected
- CB Corey Ballentine – No impact expected
That's a wrap for part 13. The Vikings are next.
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