Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 16: Detroit Lions

The Lions defense was good and bad in 2023. They were stingy against the run, allowing the second-fewest yards on the ground and just five carries of 20+ yards. On the other hand, they were generous versus the pass, giving up the fourth-most yards through the air and the most pass plays of 20+ yards.  

Sometimes, the number of yards doesn't tell the whole story. We might point out that they faced the third-fewest rushes as the reason for their low yardage. There is surely a correlation but if we want to know how good a team is, look at yards per carry. Detroit's 3.7 was the third-fewest.

The same observation can be made about the Lions' pass defense. They faced a lot of attempts so it makes sense that they allowed the fourth most yards through the air. That's true but it sure doesn't help when only one team surrenders more yards per attempt. When you mix it all together, the Lions were a mediocre defense last year. Their 41 sacks were respectable and they were middle of the pack in both turnovers and scoring.

As we have seen since the hiring of head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions are a team that does a good job of identifying needs and addressing them in the offseason. They will have one new starter and possibly two along the front line while the secondary has four new faces to compete at the corner positions, including first and second-round draft picks.

Defensive Linemen

The Lions have a cornerstone in third-year edge defender Aiden Hutchinson. The second overall pick is 2022, he has been everything the organization expected. Most rookie pass rushers start slowly and break out in year two or three. In his first season, Hutchinson went 34-18-9.5 with five turnovers and 3 batted passes. If that is his version of a slow start, this guy will be special.

If not for such a productive rookie campaign, Hutchinson's year two numbers would have been a breakout. Instead, they were simply an improvement at 36-15-11.5 with 6 turnovers, 7 batted passes, and 14 tackles for loss. Hutchinson turns 24 in August and is just entering the prime of his career. He was the fantasy game's eleventh-ranked edge defender in 2023 and could be a perennial top ten.

Hutchinson is an outstanding building block but if the Lions expect to go anywhere, he will need some help. Detroit had 15 players contribute in the sack column in 2023. Hutchinson was the only one with more than 5. The rest of the defensive line accounted for 13 between them, with only six and a half credited to other defensive ends.

It is not that the Lions failed to address the other edge position; it's how they went about it that is in question. We've all heard the cliché' that sometimes the best ability is availability. That has been a problem for Marcus Davenport throughout his six years in the league. The 2018 first-round pick of the Saints has never missed fewer than two games in a season and has been sidelined for a total of 32, including 13 last year. Those numbers don't include all the games he was banged up and played sparingly or was ineffective, and there have been plenty of those.

When healthy, Davenport is a talented player. In eleven games for the Saints in 2021, he totaled 23-16-9, forced 3 fumbles, and recovered 1. In his other five seasons combined, Davenport has 13 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. The organization is rolling the dice here. If he can beat the injury bug, Davenport can be a strong bookend. If he comes up gimpy yet again, there is not much of a backup plan. The team has to be concerned that he is already missing time during OTAs.  

What plan they do have, consists of Josh Paschal, John Cominsky, and a collection of undrafted rookies and taxi squad guys. Cominsky is a serviceable backup who can give the team a few snaps every week but is not a starting talent. It is Paschal that the organization has high hopes for. He was a round-two pick in 2022, the same year Hutchinson came aboard. The Lions expected him to step up and be the bookend to his draft-mate but so far it is not looking good.

Injuries have been a big factor for Paschal. He was slowed by a sore knee and a core injury that started bothering him during his rookie training camp. After recovering from sports hernia surgery, Paschal was eyeing a bigger role in year two before missing time with a sore knee. All indications are that the injuries are behind him heading into training camp.

When healthy, Paschal is a strong edge setter who plays the run well, but he does not excel as a pass rusher. He is more of a big-body who can help on early downs, but his contributions as a pass rusher are modest. The best scenario for the Lions would be to have Paschal in the game on running downs while Davenport concentrates on rushing the passer. That might help both players avoid injury, but it's not going to make either of them IDP targets.

Detroit added some beef to their tackle position by signing 335-pound D.J. Reader. He will replace last year's starter, Benito Jones as the team's one-technique, which is sort of an off-set nose tackle in the Lions 4-3. Reader is an excellent anchor for the run defense and does a pretty good job of getting off blocks to make tackles, but he has little to offer as a pass rusher. He will be on the sideline in most passing situations and is a marginal fantasy option at best.

A glance at the numbers of last year's tackles will cause most IDP managers to turn the page and look elsewhere. There is one player of interest here though. Alim McNeill was the most productive of Detroits' interior linemen last season at 17-15-5 with a forced fumble. Those are not eye-catching numbers but they look much better when we consider that virtually all came in nine games. If we project his averages over a full 17-game schedule, we get something like 30-25-9.5. That would be low DT1 fantasy points.

He is not garnering much attention this summer so if you need a DT3 with potential or get pinched for a second starter, McNeill could be your answer.

• DE Aidan Hutchinson – On the cusp of becoming a perennial top-twelve
• DE Josh Paschal – Marginal expectations
• DE John Cominsky – No IDP value
• DE Marcus Davenport – High ceiling but considerable injury risk
• DT Alim McNeill – Sleeper DT3 with upside
• DT DJ Reader – Marginal IDP value
• DT Levi Onwuzurike – No impact expected
• DT Broderick Martin – No impact expected

Linebackers

Anyone reading the EOTG over the last few years knows I am not a fan of Alex Anzalone. They also know that I give credit where it is due. Earlier in his career, Anzalone was simply not an NFL starter. He has improved greatly over the last three seasons with the Lions, both on the field and in the box scores. Anzalone's numbers have grown steadily from 50-27-1 with a pick and 7 passes defended in 2021 to 77-48-1.5 with 3 turnovers and 6 PDs in 2022. The upswing continued last year when he looked the part of a starter on the field and broke into the top twenty for the first time at 85-44-3 with a recovery and 6 pass breakups.  

The test for Anzalone will come this season when he is challenged for the lead role by last year's 18th overall pick, Jack Campbell. The Lions had one every-down backer in 2023, but they had two backers on the field virtually all the time and three fairly often. Derrick Barnes had the second-highest snap total among the team's linebackers with Campbell close behind. At this point, there is no way to tell how the playing time will break down. What we do know is that NFL teams don't use first-round picks on part-time linebackers.

An increased role would almost certainly come at the expense of Barnes, leaving Campbell and Anzalone on the field together. Both players are position versatile but are best when working in the middle. The good news for those of us faced with this dilemma is that the team's linebackers combined for 210 tackles, 142 assists, and 7 sacks last year. There is enough production for a pair of top-twenty guys.

With those three players, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Jalen Reeves-Maybin, the Lions are both strong and deep at the second level. Reeves-Maybin is a seven-year veteran who has played a lot of football, including a few starts. He can play any of the three positions but is best suited for the weak side role.

Rodriguez played a lot as a rookie and was highly productive on a per-snap basis. He turned roughly 65% of the snaps into 87 combined tackles, a sack, and a pair of turnovers. He quickly became a favorite of fans and coaches alike. If called upon for a major role, he could hold down the fort for his team and help ours win championships.      

• MLB Alex Anzalone – Steady LB2 or excellent third starter
• MLB Jack Campbell – Breakout candidate in year two
• SLB Derrick Barnes – Marginal IDP value unless there is an injury
• MLB Malcolm Rodriguez – Injury sleeper with a high upside
• WLB Jalen Reeves-Maybin – No impact expected 

Defensive Backs

There is plenty of IDP value in the Lions' secondary. The challenge is identifying where it will surface. The first four players on the expected depth chart at corner are all new to the team. Detroit signed six-year Buccaneers starter Carlton Davis and former Raiders starter Amik Robertson in free agency. When the draft came around, they doubled down by selecting Terrion Arnold in round one and Ennis Rakestraw in the second. This situation has the makings of an all-out battle royale.

Davis comes in with the advantage of experience and is the early favorite for one of the jobs. He missed time with minor injuries in each of the last three years and five of six over his career. When healthy, Davis is a good NFL starter and has been a quality option for IDP managers. He suffered a toe injury last September that bothered him all season, so his numbers were down. Even playing through the injury for several games, he did not allow a touchdown in man coverage. Davis played 13 games in 2022 when his points-per-contest average ranked eleventh among corners.

Robertson is the biggest underdog in this fight. He started several games for the Raiders over four years with the team. Last season was his best statistically at 38-12-1 with 4 turnovers and 6 passes defended, but it is hard to get a read on his fantasy value. Las Vegas was all over the place with their corner positions, seemingly rolling out a different combination of players every week. His best shot at earning a role may be to beat out the second-round rookie for sub-package duties.

First-round pick Terrion Arnold is the favorite for the second corner position. He is young, having declared for the draft after his sophomore year at Alabama, but has the traits and skillset that make defensive coordinators giddy. He is fast, physical, aggressive, smart, and is a playmaker. We could throw versatile in there, too. In his two years as a starter for the Crimson Tide, he played outside and in the slot, covering big, physical receivers and small, fast ones with equal success. In 14 games last year, Arnold tallied 63 combined stops, a sack, 5 interceptions, and a forced fumble. Combine all of that with the rookie corner rule, and Arnold is a high-upside target for both redraft and dynasty managers.

 Second-round pick Ennis Rakestraw is not as gifted or polished as Arnold but should see time as a rookie with a chance to develop into a fine second starter for the Lions. Despite his diminutive size at 183 pounds, he is tough and willing to support the run. Average top-end speed and lacking ball skills are issues but he could be a candidate for the slot corner position.

There should be at least one decent option for IDP managers at the Lions' corner positions, but their safeties could be difference-makers for us. Some league hosts call Brian Branch a safety while others classify him as a corner. The Lions call him a defensive back. Whatever the designation, Branch will spend most of his time either covering the slot or freelancing among the front seven. His rare combination of size, speed, and athleticism make Branch a great fit for his role.

Overall, Branch's production was good as a rookie, totaling 74 combined stops, a sack, 4 turnovers, and 13 pass breakups in 15 games. The problem for IDP managers was the lack of consistency. Branch had some huge games, scoring over 20 points three times. He had some horrible ones as well, turning in five or fewer points in six contests. A second season in the role could go a long way toward resolving the consistency issue and Branch could evolve into an every-week must-start. At this stage, I see him as a gambler's second starter or a priority number three.

Kerby Joseph is in line for one of the safety jobs. Some people tag him as the team's free safety, but the truth is, Detroit has interchangeable pieces, so there are no designated free or strong safeties. Joseph, Branch, and Ifeatu Melifonwu move around like an ameba, keeping offenses off guard and trying to create mistakes. Joseph led the team's defensive backs with 68 solo tackles last season. He also led them with four interceptions and was a top-20 safety. Unless there is an unexpected shuffle, he should make at least a quality number three with a mid-DB2 upside.

That brings us to my favorite wildcard of the 2024 season, Ifeatu Melifonwu. The 2021 third-round pick played sparingly over his first two seasons and well into his third. When he got the chance to bat, he hit it out of the park. A late-season injury to Tracy Walker opened the door in week fourteen. In five regular season starts, Melifonwu racked up 19 tackles, 9 assists, 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, a forced fumble, and 7 passes defended. Over that five-game span, he was the fantasy game's second-best safety at 14.7 points per game.

It was a small but very impressive audition. It seems the organization was also impressed since they made no effort to bring back Walker or Chauncy Gardner-Johnson.

Melifonwu is big, fast, physical, and has a knack for the big play. There is some risk that he will be a five-game-wonder, but it is a safe bet that the coaching staff will give him a chance to prove it was not.    

• SS Ifeatu Melifonwu – Risky, high-potential potential sort-of-sleeper
• FS Kerby Joseph – Priority number three with second starter upside
• DB Brian Branch – Risky week-to-week play that will win you some games and lose you some
• FS C.J. Moore – No impact
• CB Carlton Davis – good CB3 with high CB2 potential
• CB Terrion Arnold – Rookie corner rule, a great situation, and an almost perfect skillset for IDP
• CB Ennis Rakestraw – Dynasty sleeper
• CB Emmanuel Mosley – No impact
• CB Amik Robertson – Longshot to have IDP value

That's a wrap for part 16. I'll get started on the AFC South next.

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