Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 15: Chicago Bears

Photo: USA Today Sports

Considering how bad they were in 2022, the Bears' defense made huge strides last year. Versus the run, they went from tied for 26th at 4.9 yards per carry, 31st in total rushing yards, and dead last in scoring with a whopping 31 rushing touchdowns surrendered in 2022 to giving up the fourth fewest yards per carry at 3.8 and allowing the second-fewest touchdowns at 8. Only four teams gave up fewer runs of 20+ yards, and no one allowed fewer yards on the ground.  

The team’s improvement versus the pass was not as extreme, but they were better. After giving up a 67.2% completion rate, a league-worst 7.7 yards per attempt, and recording a league-low 20 sacks in 2022, they trimmed the completion rate to 66.4, cut the yards per attempt to 6.9, tied for twelfth, and added 10 sacks to the previous year’s total. They still have a way to go after allowing the fourth most passing touchdowns, but last year’s league-high 22 interceptions was a big step in the right direction.

The Bears used seven of their ten draft picks on defense last off-season. That got the defense turned around and headed in the right direction, but they did little to continue the progress this off-season. The only free agent reinforcements were at safety, where they signed Kevin Byard III to start and Jonathan Owens to back up. The only draft addition was Edge Austin Booker in the fifth round. Unless last year’s momentum continues to carry them forward, this group is probably not going to remind anyone of the great Bears defenses of the past, but they are heading in the right direction.  

Defensive Linemen

Chicago used three picks in last year’s draft to sure up the tackle position, but their biggest impact move came at the trade deadline when they acquired Montez Sweat from the Commanders. How big of an improvement was he? Sweat played seven games for Chicago and led the team in sacks with six. The question is, can he keep up that production with the organization giving him no help?

Even with his numbers split between two teams, 2023 was a breakout year for Sweat. The 2019 first-round pick performed well and was consistent over his four-plus seasons with Washington but set new career marks in tackles, assists, and sacks in 2023. His totals of 37-19-12.5, with a pair of forced fumbles and four batted passes, were good enough for Sweat’s second top twelve and third top twenty ranking in the last four seasons. But for an injury-shortened 2021, it might be four in a row.

The only concern with Sweat is the lack of a supporting cast. During his time in Washington, there were always good players around him. Chase Young, Ryan Carrigan, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne were all players that could rush the passer and keep opponents from focusing on any one player. Justin Jones and Yannick Ngakoue were second and third on the Bears last year with four and a half and four sacks, respectively, and even those guys are gone. Unless someone steps up, opposing offenses will focus on Sweat and find a way to keep him off their quarterbacks.

Unless they pull off another trade or claim another team’s castoff when cuts are made, the Bears will depend heavily on DeMarcus Walker and/or Dominique Robinson to step up. Walker was a second-round pick of the Broncos in 2017. Over most of his four years there, he was a down lineman in the team’s 3-4 scheme.

Injuries took a toll on Walker early in his career, but even when he was healthy for all of 2019 and thirteen games in 2020, he was marginally impactful. A year with Houston in 2021 was not much better, but Walker had a career-best of 32 total tackles and 7 sacks with the Titans in 2022. It is important to remember that he was still working as a down lineman in a 3-4 scheme through that point in his career.

Last season was Walker’s first as a full-time edge in a four-man front. He logged the most playing time of anyone on the team at the position at 713 snaps, but once again was marginally impactful. He did a fine job of setting the edge against the run and was an important factor in the team’s improvement, but Walker is not going to make a lot of plays as a pass rusher. He went 17-13-3.5 for Chicago last year. With an average of just over three sacks per season, Walker will be hard-pressed to get back to seven.

Dominique Robinson was a fifth-round pick by the Bears in 2022. When he went 5-1-1.5 in his first career game, Bears fans and IDP managers got excited. Unfortunately, that was pretty much the last time we heard his name. After finishing his rookie season at 19-10-1.5, Robinson totaled 4-6-.5 in ten appearances last year.

Maybe the Bears know something we don’t about rookie fifth-round selection Austin Booker. NFL.com draft guru Lance Zierlein seems to think so. Zierlein gave him a third-round grade with an NFL comparison to Maxx Crosby. The problem with Booker is the tiny sample size of his work. 

Booker's entire college career consisted of 505 snaps. He redshirted at Minnesota in 2021 and played in six games with the team as a reserve in 2022. His transfer to Kansas last year gave him the opportunity he needed. As a sophomore for the Jayhawks, Booker only made one start but played in twelve games, going 40-16-8 and forcing 2 fumbles. He was first-team All-Big 12 and Conference Defensive Newcomer of the Year.  

With a little study, it’s not hard to see where Zierlein draws his comparison to Crosby. Like a young Crosby, Booker is tall and lanky at 6-foot-4.5 and 240 pounds, with a frame to add muscle. His wingspan is huge, and Booker has the burst to attack upfield with an inside spin counter that catches blockers off-guard. Good instincts make him look much more polished than he is, and he already has a small arsenal of pass-rush moves. Booker even has the speed and tenacity to chase down plays from the backside. He needs to add size and strength to hold up as a point-of-attack run defender. With a strong work ethic and a little time, that will come. Patience may be required, but he has a chance to be special in a year or two.

Veteran Andrew Billings, along with second-year players Gervon Dexter Sr, and Zacch Pickens, are expected to see the most action at the tackle positions. The Bears are missing an explosive playmaker on the inside but this trio of 300+ pounders fit well in the scheme. The Bears don’t ask their interior guys to penetrate and disrupt every play. They are often tasked with clogging the line of scrimmage and keeping blockers off the linebackers.

The bottom line is that scheme and personnel do not suggest much statistical production by Chicago’s tackles. If there is going to be an exception, it would probably be Dexter. He managed two sacks as a rookie and is the leading candidate to replace Justin Jones as the nickel pass rusher on the inside.

• Edge Montez Sweat – Good second starter if he gets a little help from his friends
• Edge DeMarcus Walker – Marginal IDP value
• Edge Austin Booker – Dynasty alert! Stash this guy if you can
• Edge Dominique Robinson – No impact expected
• Edge Jake Martin – No impact
• DT Andrew Billings – No impact
• DT Gervon Dexter Sr.- Potential depth in leagues starting two tackles
• DT Zacch Pickens – No impact expected
• DT Byron Cowart – No impact