Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 15: Chicago Bears

Considering how bad they were in 2022, the Bears' defense made huge strides last year. Versus the run, they went from tied for 26th at 4.9 yards per carry, 31st in total rushing yards, and dead last in scoring with a whopping 31 rushing touchdowns surrendered in 2022 to giving up the fourth fewest yards per carry at 3.8 and allowing the second-fewest touchdowns at 8. Only four teams gave up fewer runs of 20+ yards, and no one allowed fewer yards on the ground.  

The team’s improvement versus the pass was not as extreme, but they were better. After giving up a 67.2% completion rate, a league-worst 7.7 yards per attempt, and recording a league-low 20 sacks in 2022, they trimmed the completion rate to 66.4, cut the yards per attempt to 6.9, tied for twelfth, and added 10 sacks to the previous year’s total. They still have a way to go after allowing the fourth most passing touchdowns, but last year’s league-high 22 interceptions was a big step in the right direction.

The Bears used seven of their ten draft picks on defense last off-season. That got the defense turned around and headed in the right direction, but they did little to continue the progress this off-season. The only free agent reinforcements were at safety, where they signed Kevin Byard III to start and Jonathan Owens to back up. The only draft addition was Edge Austin Booker in the fifth round. Unless last year’s momentum continues to carry them forward, this group is probably not going to remind anyone of the great Bears defenses of the past, but they are heading in the right direction.  

Defensive Linemen

Chicago used three picks in last year’s draft to sure up the tackle position, but their biggest impact move came at the trade deadline when they acquired Montez Sweat from the Commanders. How big of an improvement was he? Sweat played seven games for Chicago and led the team in sacks with six. The question is, can he keep up that production with the organization giving him no help?

Even with his numbers split between two teams, 2023 was a breakout year for Sweat. The 2019 first-round pick performed well and was consistent over his four-plus seasons with Washington but set new career marks in tackles, assists, and sacks in 2023. His totals of 37-19-12.5, with a pair of forced fumbles and four batted passes, were good enough for Sweat’s second top twelve and third top twenty ranking in the last four seasons. But for an injury-shortened 2021, it might be four in a row.

The only concern with Sweat is the lack of a supporting cast. During his time in Washington, there were always good players around him. Chase Young, Ryan Carrigan, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne were all players that could rush the passer and keep opponents from focusing on any one player. Justin Jones and Yannick Ngakoue were second and third on the Bears last year with four and a half and four sacks, respectively, and even those guys are gone. Unless someone steps up, opposing offenses will focus on Sweat and find a way to keep him off their quarterbacks.

Unless they pull off another trade or claim another team’s castoff when cuts are made, the Bears will depend heavily on DeMarcus Walker and/or Dominique Robinson to step up. Walker was a second-round pick of the Broncos in 2017. Over most of his four years there, he was a down lineman in the team’s 3-4 scheme.

Injuries took a toll on Walker early in his career, but even when he was healthy for all of 2019 and thirteen games in 2020, he was marginally impactful. A year with Houston in 2021 was not much better, but Walker had a career-best of 32 total tackles and 7 sacks with the Titans in 2022. It is important to remember that he was still working as a down lineman in a 3-4 scheme through that point in his career.

Last season was Walker’s first as a full-time edge in a four-man front. He logged the most playing time of anyone on the team at the position at 713 snaps, but once again was marginally impactful. He did a fine job of setting the edge against the run and was an important factor in the team’s improvement, but Walker is not going to make a lot of plays as a pass rusher. He went 17-13-3.5 for Chicago last year. With an average of just over three sacks per season, Walker will be hard-pressed to get back to seven.

Dominique Robinson was a fifth-round pick by the Bears in 2022. When he went 5-1-1.5 in his first career game, Bears fans and IDP managers got excited. Unfortunately, that was pretty much the last time we heard his name. After finishing his rookie season at 19-10-1.5, Robinson totaled 4-6-.5 in ten appearances last year.

Maybe the Bears know something we don’t about rookie fifth-round selection Austin Booker. NFL.com draft guru Lance Zierlein seems to think so. Zierlein gave him a third-round grade with an NFL comparison to Maxx Crosby. The problem with Booker is the tiny sample size of his work. 

Booker's entire college career consisted of 505 snaps. He redshirted at Minnesota in 2021 and played in six games with the team as a reserve in 2022. His transfer to Kansas last year gave him the opportunity he needed. As a sophomore for the Jayhawks, Booker only made one start but played in twelve games, going 40-16-8 and forcing 2 fumbles. He was first-team All-Big 12 and Conference Defensive Newcomer of the Year.  

With a little study, it’s not hard to see where Zierlein draws his comparison to Crosby. Like a young Crosby, Booker is tall and lanky at 6-foot-4.5 and 240 pounds, with a frame to add muscle. His wingspan is huge, and Booker has the burst to attack upfield with an inside spin counter that catches blockers off-guard. Good instincts make him look much more polished than he is, and he already has a small arsenal of pass-rush moves. Booker even has the speed and tenacity to chase down plays from the backside. He needs to add size and strength to hold up as a point-of-attack run defender. With a strong work ethic and a little time, that will come. Patience may be required, but he has a chance to be special in a year or two.

Veteran Andrew Billings, along with second-year players Gervon Dexter Sr, and Zacch Pickens, are expected to see the most action at the tackle positions. The Bears are missing an explosive playmaker on the inside but this trio of 300+ pounders fit well in the scheme. The Bears don’t ask their interior guys to penetrate and disrupt every play. They are often tasked with clogging the line of scrimmage and keeping blockers off the linebackers.

The bottom line is that scheme and personnel do not suggest much statistical production by Chicago’s tackles. If there is going to be an exception, it would probably be Dexter. He managed two sacks as a rookie and is the leading candidate to replace Justin Jones as the nickel pass rusher on the inside.

• Edge Montez Sweat – Good second starter if he gets a little help from his friends
• Edge DeMarcus Walker – Marginal IDP value
• Edge Austin Booker – Dynasty alert! Stash this guy if you can
• Edge Dominique Robinson – No impact expected
• Edge Jake Martin – No impact
• DT Andrew Billings – No impact
• DT Gervon Dexter Sr.- Potential depth in leagues starting two tackles
• DT Zacch Pickens – No impact expected
• DT Byron Cowart – No impact
  

Linebackers

One reason the 2022 Bears were so poor against the run, was the struggles at the linebacker positions that were magnified with the trade of Roquan Smith. Jack Sanborn stepped in and went on an incredible six-game run that put a lot of IDP managers into the playoffs, but it was not pretty on the field. With the additions of Tremaine Edmunds at middle linebacker and T.J. Edwards on the weak side, improvement was a given. Not many expected it to be so drastic.

Edmunds was a dependable five-year starter for the Bills from 2018 to 2022 but was not much of a difference-maker. At six feet five and 250 pounds, he excelled against the run. While Edmunds was never a liability in coverage, it was not a strength of his game, nor was he much of a big play threat. The change of venue awakened that in him.

With 69 solos and 44 assists, Edmunds’ tackle totals looked about the same as usual. Considering he missed virtually all of three games, they were actually a substantial improvement. The bigger improvement, however, was in the big play columns. Over five seasons with Buffalo, Edmunds totaled six interceptions. He had not forced or recovered a fumble since his rookie year in 2018. His first season with the Bears produced four interceptions, a forced fumble, a recovery, seven pass breakups, and a score.

If he were still in Buffalo, we might call this a career outlier and just a great season among good ones. The fact that it happened in his first year with a new team is probably more than just a coincidence. At 12.8 points per game, Edmunds was the eleventh-ranked linebacker last year. It would take a lot of faith to count on a top-twelve repeat, but Edmunds is a safe target as a priority third starter with LB2 upside.

Whoever in the linebacker-needy Eagles organization decided to let Alex Singleton and T.J. Edwards leave over the last two years should be fired. Both players started as undrafted signees and developed into good NFL starters, but the organization refused to pay either of them when the time came. Maybe the Eagles put too much emphasis on draft status and not enough on production. Whatever the reason, Denver and Chicago are happy about it.

Edwards earned a starting role in Philadelphia mid-way through the 2021 season. In 2022 he exploded for 159 tackles (99 solo) with 2 sacks, a turnover, and 7 passes defended. That performance earned him a payday from the Bears. As with Edmunds, the Chicago scheme awakened the playmaker in Edwards. His four years in Philadelphia produced 6 turnovers, 5 sacks, and 13 passes defended. Edwards' first season with Chicago brought out 6 turnovers, 2 sacks seven pass breakups, and his second consecutive top ten in the fantasy rankings. As I like to say, once is a fluke, but twice is a trend. Don’t hesitate to target Edwards as a low-end LB1 this summer.

The Bears call Jack Sanborn their starting strong-side linebacker. While that is not a false statement, the fact is that Chicago doesn’t play three linebackers very often. Sanborn totaled 412 snaps last year with 180 coming in the four games when Edmunds was affected by injuries.

What we know about Sanborn is that there are limitations to his game but if he gets on the field, the guy is highly productive. He will be the next man up if either starter misses time.  

• MLB Tremaine Edmunds – Solid LB2 with a little upside
• WLB T.J. Edwards – Low-end LB1 with elite-tier potential
• SLB Jack Sanborn – Strong injury sleeper
• MLB Noah Sewell – Young developmental guy in year two
• SLB Micah Baskerville – No impact expected
  

Defensive Backs

The Bears did not use much capital on the third level of their defense this offseason because the investment had already been made. Instead, they will count on a year of maturity to help their young secondary improve. This year’s projected lineup includes one veteran free-agent addition and four second-round draft picks selected over the last three seasons. Those four youngsters had five seasons of experience between them heading into last year. They now have nine.

The projected starting corners are second-year man Tyrique Stevenson and four-year veteran Jaylon Johnson on the outside, with third-year pro Kyler Gordon expected to handle the slot. Filling out the secondary are veteran free agent safety Kevin Byard and 2022 second-round pick Jaquan Brisker. Considering that three of these players averaged better than ten points per game last year, mining for fantasy production here could prove fruitful.

The rookie corner rule was in full force with Stevenson. He was a starter from week one and was picked on often. By season end, his 64 solo tackles were tied for fourth among corners, and his 84 combined stops ranked sixth. What set Stevenson apart from most rookies was his contribution of big plays. No other corner with more than 80 combined tackles, had more than four turnovers. Stevenson recorded six and added 16 passes defended. If the formula holds, we could see a little less in the tackle columns this year and potentially more in the splash play department. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Stevenson will break the trend and remain highly relevant.

Gordon was not one of the three to average double-digit points last year. At just under eight per game, he was the 30th-ranked corner on the season. There is more to this story, though. Gordon suffered a broken hand in the first half of week one. He returned in week six, but it took some time to reach 100%. Through week nine, he had reached double-digit points once. Over the next seven games, he got there six times. 

Gordon was the 16th-ranked corner as a rookie in 2022. He was on pace for more tackles in year two, had he not missed time. That’s largely because he landed in a slot role similar to the one that pushed L’Jarius Sneed and Patrick Ramsey to the top of the corner rankings a couple of years back. Once healthy, Gordon moved around and was regularly in the thick of things near the line of scrimmage. Like Sneed, Ramsey, and the others who have been highly successful in similar roles of late, Gordon is a physical corner with good size, speed, and a knack for making splash plays.

We have no confirmation that he will remain in the same role going forward. We can say that he was a good fit there and would seem the favorite. At a position that is wildly unpredictable from year to year, Gordon is worthy of a late-round shot as a CB3 with upside.  

With four seasons under his belt, Jaylon Johnson is the longest-tenured corner in the Bears starting lineup. He is their number one cover man and the player offenses least like to target. The rookie corner rule never applied with Johnson. He has never reached 40 solo stops in a season and his five turnovers last year were more than his first three campaigns combined. Johnson is a good corner who will help the Bears win games, but he will not do much for us.

The other two players in this secondary, who averaged more than ten points per game last year, are the safeties. Jaquan Brisker has been productive and consistent over his two years in the league. As a rookie in 2022, he totaled 104 tackles with 4 sacks, 3 turnovers, and an average of about 10.9 points per game. That was good enough to make him a top-fifteen safety. Brisker added a couple of tackles to his total in year two and would have shattered the previous mark had he not missed two games. Three fewer sacks dropped his average to 10.5 points per game last year, but that was still good enough to rank 16th. After consecutive seasons with very similar production, it is safe to consider Brisker a good second starter with a high floor.

The unknown commodity here is free safety Kevin Byard, who also averaged better than ten points per game, albeit with two other teams.  He spent six-and-a-half seasons with the Titans before being traded to the Eagles mid-season. While with Tennessee, Byard gave us decent tackle totals every year, and his consistent splash play production kept him in the fantasy spotlight. In eight seasons, he produced 28 interceptions, 4 sacks, 7 fumble turnovers, and 65 passes defended. There were a couple of years when he played a lot of strong safety. Byard’s turnover numbers were down in those years, including 2023, but he reached 80 solo stops with at least 110 combined tackles in each of them.

Byard has been gold for IDP managers thus far. What we don’t know is if he can continue to produce as the Beras free safety. Chicago plays a lot of single high and three deep coverages that could have Byard off the TV screen on most plays. We can look at Eddie Jackson for comparison but that only muddies the water further.

Like Byard, Jackson is a play-making free safety who usually puts up respectable tackle totals. The problem is, that Jackson’s two years in the scheme provide a sharp contrast. He played twelve games in each of those seasons. In 2022, Jackson was highly productive with 59 tackles, 21 assists, and six turnovers. In roughly the same amount of playing time last year, he finished 32-5 with 1 pick. The Bears moved on from Jackson in the off-season, so maybe there was more to his lack of production than just the scheme.

The unknown makes Byard a fairly significant risk. That said, eight seasons of strong production can’t be ignored. I won’t be picking him as an every-week starter this time around, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be picking him.

• FS Kevin Byard – Somewhat risky third safety with good upside
• SS Jaquan Brisker – Solid second starter
• FS Elijah Hicks – Injury sleeper  
• SS Jonathan Owens – Injury sleeper
• CB Jaylon Johnson – No IODP impact
• CB Tyrique Stevenson – CB1 potential
• CB Kyler Gordon – Targed as CB3 with upside
• CB Jaylon Jones – No impact expected
• CB Terell Smith – No impact

That’s a wrap for part 15. Up Next, we finish off the NFC North with the Lions.  

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