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For a defense transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4, the Panthers did some things surprisingly well. The pass defense allowed the fewest yards in the league and the fifth-fewest yards per attempt. Only three teams allowed fewer passing touchdowns, and Carolina was tied for the fewest passes of 20+ yards. As tough as this unit was versus the pass, they were equally bad in most of the other important categories.
Carolina finished 23rd in rushing yards allowed. Opponents didn't need to score through the air because they could stroll into the endzone on the ground against a defense that allowed a league-high 25 rushing touchdowns. The Panthers could not get pressure on the quarterback, sporting a league-low 27 sacks. They did not take the ball away, with a league-low eleven turnovers, and only three teams allowed more points.
The team used its first two draft picks on offensive skill position players but took a linebacker on day two, adding players at all three levels on day three. It didn't break the bank on any high-profile free agents, but it did spend judiciously, adding eight players. Seven of those players have a chance to start or at least hold significant roles.
They should do better in those lacking categories in 2024, but the Panthers are still missing that one elite player that all great defenses seem to have. Looking at their current roster, it doesn't look like that guy is showing up this year, either.
Defensive Linemen
When a team only has 27 sacks, it's usually not a great idea to scrap the guy who led the club with 7.5 of them. Jettison might not be the best term to describe it, but not much effort was made to keep Brian Burns from leaving. There are two things to consider when evaluating the team's decision on Burns. First, he is among the most over-rated players in the league at the position, and second, the Panthers were able to sign both D.J. Wonnum and Jadeveon Clowney and still save five million left over from what the Giants are paying him this year.
Are Wonnum and Clowney better than Burns? I might not go that far, but they did have more sacks last year, and both are upgrades against the run. Wonnum was a third-round pick of the Vikings in 2020. He was part of their edge rotation from the beginning and made a lot of starts for Minnesota over the last three years. He comes to Carolina with 23 career sacks on his resume. Wonnum has reached 8 twice in his young career, the first time in 2021 and again last season when he missed two games but was still a career-best 33-29-8 with 6 passes defended and a fumble recovery for a score. Those numbers translated to 10.7 points per game and Wonnum's first top-ten ranking.
Playing opposite Danielle Hunter has been a plus, making it hard to judge how well Wonnum's production will travel to Carolina. What we do know is that there will be no competition for the starting job and that the Panthers are willing to let their players stay on the field enough to put up good numbers. Burns played 814 snaps last season.
Jadeveon Clowney started his career as the first overall pick by the Texans in 2014. His first couple of seasons were affected by injuries, starting with a hangover from his last year at South Carolina. He spent five seasons with the Texans, including three rather productive ones, but never lived up to the billing of a first-overall pick.
Since 2018, Clowney has become the league's premier rent-a-player at the edge position. He's worked for five teams in six years and has nine sacks in three of those seasons. The problem with Clowney is consistency. We never know if he will be the guy who had nine sacks for the Texans, Browns, and Ravens or the one who had three for the Seahawks, none for the Titans, and two in his second year with Cleveland. What we do know is that Clowney doesn't make a lot of tackles. He had 40, 41, and 37 solos in his last three years with Houston, but over the past five seasons, Clowney's best is 24. He is still looking for that elusive ten-sack season and his first top-twelve ranking. Neither of those marks will likely be achieved this year either.
Carolina's depth on the edge is mostly a collection of second or third-year guys drafted in the middle-rounds or later with limited experience. The one exception is former Jaguars' first-round bust, K'Lavon Chaisson. Jacksonville invested four years and a lot of money in him. What they got was 71 total tackles, 5 sacks, and 2 batted passes. Maybe the change of venue will get him going, but don't hold your breath.
Wonnum and Clowney will land on a roster in most IDP leagues, but neither is sure to be more than depth for us. The Panthers have a lot more to offer at the tackle position. The challenge for us is deciding which Derrick Brown we will see in 2024. Will it be the one who was 30-37-1 with a pick, 7 batted passes, and a rank of 17th in 2022, or the one that piled up a league-leading (for the position) 103 combined tackles with 2 sacks, 6 swatted passes, and a pick, to rank second among tackles last year? Considering that 2023 was Brown's first experience in a three-man front, and he killed it. I would lean toward top-ten expectations.
A'Shawn Robinson is set to start at the other outside tackle position. He, too, could provide useful numbers for those of us in leagues starting two tackles. Like Brown, Robinson is limited as a pass rusher. He has seven sacks over eight seasons, with none in the last two. He does make a lot of tackles for the position, though. Robinson totaled 62 combined in 2023. He missed time in 2020 and 2022 but has at least 32 solo tackles in each of the other five since his rookie campaign in 2016. Pick him up as depth at the end of your draft in start-two leagues, but don't expect much more.
Shy Tuttle is the favorite to round out the starting lineup at nose tackle, but he is not a lock. Nick Thurman or rookie Jaden Crumedy could get their names in the hat with a strong training camp. Regardless of who wins the title, don't look for much production from the position. The Panthers often pull their nose tackle for an extra defensive back on passing downs. Tuttle held the job last year averaging less than four and a half points per game.
- Edge D.J. Wonnum – Good Edge3 with a little upside
- Edge Jadeveon Clowney – Solid depth if he has a good year
- Edge K'Lavon Chaisson – No impact
- Edge D.J. Johnson – Injury sleeper with limited upside
- Edge Amare Barno – No impact
- DT Derrick Brown – Target as a solid DT1 with top-five potential
- DT A'Shawn Robinson – Decent DT3 without much upside
- DT Jaden Crumedy – No impact
- DT Shy Tuttle – No impact
- DT Nick Thurman – no impact
Linebackers
The Panthers have been without a great player at the linebacker position since the retirement of Luke Kueckly. That is not going to change in 2024. Shaq Thompson is a steady veteran who provides consistency for the team. He doesn't make many splash plays but holds up well against both run and pass. He might be a good fit in the team's 3-4, but an ankle injury kept us from finding out last year. After posting career-highs of 78 tackles and 57 assists in 2022, Thompson's 2023 ended in week two.
The injury to Thompson left the team short-handed at inside backer. Frankie Luvu held the lead role with a combination of Kamu-Grugier-Hill and Deion Jones seeing time as the second linebacker. The team also tried some three-safety packages but nothing worked very well.
Luvu signed elsewhere, Thompson is healthy, and Carolina signed Josey Jewell in free agency, then used a third-round pick on Trevin Wallace. At the very least, the position should be deeper than in 2023.
Jewell is a dependable downhill run defender. Early in his career with Denver, he had a hard time getting on the field in passing situations, but hard work and practice made him serviceable in coverage. That allowed Jewell to handle a three-down role starting in his third year (2020). The coaching change in Denver ended that last year, and he was back to about 75% playing time.
It is unclear if the Panthers will run with two full-time inside linebackers. They did not do so last season, but that may have had more to do with Thompson's injury than the design of the scheme. It is a good sign that, in the one game that Thompson finished, he and Luvu played every snap. Neither Thompson nor Jewell will likely be an every-week must-start for us, but they could be decent LB3 or priority depth.
Jewell is under contract through the 2026 season, but Thompson is in the final year of his contract. That could give Trevin Wallace a path to the lineup in his second season. Wallace has all the physical gifts to become a good starting linebacker. At six foot one and 237 pounds, he has optimal size, good speed, plenty of range, and the ability to get home on a blitz. The knock on him coming out of Kentucky was a lack of consistency. His play recognition and instincts are below average, and he is often undisciplined, too often fooled by counters and misdirection.
Those issues are coachable and Wallace checks the box for college production. As a junior for the Wildcats last year, he totaled 80 combined tackles, 5.5 sacks, and 2 turnovers in 12 games. If the coaching can shore up his decision-making, Wallace could become a factor in a year or two.
- ILB Shaq Thompson – Target as LB4 with a low LB3 ceiling
- ILB Josey Jewell – Somewhere between a good LB3 and an LB5, depending on the role
- ILB Trevin Wallace – Dynasty target/injury sleeper
- ILB Michael Barrett – Special teams guy
Defensive Backs
Statistically speaking, the Panthers' pass defense was pretty good last year. Judging by their actions, the front office and coaching staff were not so impressed. Donte Jackson, who played the most snaps for the team at corner last year, and C.J. Henderson, who played the third most, were not brought back. Neither were starting strong safety Vonn Bell or 2020 second-round pick Jeremy Chinn.
From the fantasy perspective, Carolina's secondary was desolate in 2023. The highest-ranking player at either position was Xavier Woods. At 7.3 points per game, he ranked 61st among safeties. Woods continues to have a strong grip on the free safety job. The seven-year veteran had one good statistical season with the Vikings back in 2021 but has no more than 53 solo stops in any other year. He is good as a last line of defense and was a big part of the Panthers allowing so few big gains through the air, but Woods will not help our teams win championships.
Three safety looks were part of Carolina's arsenal in 2023, but the package was used sparingly or not at all in some weeks. That means Jordan Fuller and Nick Scott will probably be competing for one spot in the lineup with the loser likely getting mostly scraps for playing time. Fuller was 61-33-0 with 6 turnovers for the Rams last year. His 9.4 points per game was far from impressive but would have led anyone in the Panthers secondary by over two points per game. If anyone from this group is going to post useful numbers, Fuller is the favorite. That's a big if.
Carolina played most of 2023 without their best corner. Jaycee Horn left the week one game with a bad hamstring and was not seen again until week thirteen. On the field, the 2021 eighth-overall pick is a difference maker. The 24-year-old is already a dependable number-one corner and has the chance to become one of the elite in the coming years. Having him healthy will be a big boost for the Panthers, but Horn simply does not make enough tackles to have any fantasy value.
Troy Hill should retain the nickel/slot duties. He had a big statistical season with the Rams in 2020 but has bounced around the league over the last three seasons, never coming close to a repeat of that production in any other year.
Former Buffalo starter Dane Jackson is set to replace Donte Jackson opposite Horn. Dane is a step down from Donte in terms of talent, but he is a good, durable number two. Durability has been a problem for the Panthers in recent years.
- FS Xavier Woods – No impact
- SS Jordan Fuller – Depth with limited upside
- SS Nick Scott – No impact expected
- FS Sam Franklin – No impact
- SS Jammie Robinson – No impact
- CB Dane Jackson – No impact
- CB Jaycee Horn – No impact
- CB Troy Hill – No impact
- CB Chau Smith-Wade – Developmental rookie
- CB D'Shawn Jamison – No impact
That does it for part 23. The Buccaneers are coming soon.
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