Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 12: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens' defense was nothing short of spectacular in 2023. The dominating performance included a league-leading 60 sacks and 31 turnovers, which tied for first. No one allowed fewer yards per pass attempt, and most importantly, no one allowed fewer points. The closest thing to a negative was the rush yardage allowed, and even that ranked in the top half of the league. Two problems come on the heels of such a performance. It is tough to keep the band together, and there is no place to go but down.

Baltimore enters 2024 without four starters from last year's team. Patrick Queen was the team's second-leading tackler, Jadeveon Clowney was second on the team in sacks, Geno Stone led the team with seven interceptions, and Ronald Darby started nine games at corner. The Ravens were not players in free agency but were not completely unprepared for these losses. They will, however, have to rely on several young guns to fill the holes. 

Defensive Linemen

The Ravens are predominantly a 3-4 team and have been for a long time, but there was something a little different about them in 2023. As far back as can be remembered, Baltimore's interior linemen were given 2-gap responsibilities. They were asked to control the line of scrimmage by occupying space and blockers as opposed to penetrating and disrupting. That approach and the fact that they rotated several guys to keep everyone fresh, killed any chance of useful production from the tackle positions. In 2023 they took the muzzles off and let the guys play.

The schematic change seemed minor but the results were not. With 2-gap responsibilities, Baltimore's tackles combined for six sacks in 2021 and eight and a half in 2022. With the scheme tweak allowing those players more opportunity to penetrate and disrupt, Justin Madubuike alone racked up a team-leading thirteen while the rest of the tackles added seven and a half more.

It was an unexpected leap for Madubuike who jumped from 42 total tackles and 5 sacks with a rank of 28th among tackles in 2022, to 38 tackles, 18 assists, 13 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles with a rank of 4th last year. When a player breaks out like this, there is always some concern that it could be a fluke and an outlier. That concern is lessened with Madubuike since we can identify the reason. It will take another season or two of quality production before we can call him a proven commodity but it feels like he is poised to become a regular in the top ten.   

Broderick Washington tops the depth chart at the other outside tackle spot with Michael Pierce as the starter at nose tackle. Madibuike logged 850 plays last year but the Ravens still like to rotate guys at the other two spots. Washington, Pierce, Brent Urban, and Travis Jones all played at least 310 snaps in 2023 with none of them reaching 700. After Madubuike's breakout, we will want to keep an eye on these guys but so far, there is no reason to think one of them will be IDP-relevant.

When last season started, the Ravens were not expecting Clowney to be their lead edge defender. Early season injuries to Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo left the coaching staff short on options. Oweh missed four games before returning to finish with a respectable five sacks on 492 snaps. Ojabo missed the rest of the season with a torn ACL.   

Looking at the Ravens' pass rushers, it is hard to see them reaching 60 sacks or leading the league again in 2024. They have some young guys with potential but are way short on star power or even proven starters. With Clowney out of the picture, the team will rely on Oweh and Ojabo to start with last year's fourth-round pick Tavius Robinson and third-round rookie Adisa Isaac behind them.   

Oweh led the team's edge defenders with just 666 snaps in 2022. This was not a matter of missing time due to injury, but rather a result of the multi-player rotation the Ravens like to use. Clowney had 749 last year and that was with two of the team's top three at the position missing time. Until someone steps up like Madibuike did and makes it hard for the coaching staff to take them off the field, we are not likely to see another 750-snap edge defender or one with serious IDP relevance in Baltimore.

Oweh was a first-round pick in 2021 and could be that guy, but thus far he has not shown signs of it. He has 13 sacks over three seasons with no more than five in any of them. As the lead man at the position, that number should go up this year but will it go high enough to make him an option for us? Some prognosticators believe so, but I am not so sure.

Ojabo could be the guy to break out here but we have nothing to go on to make the case. He was good enough at Michigan to get drafted in the second–round even though he was recovering from an injury and would not be ready for the 2022 season. Ojabo made it back to play 23 snaps as a rookie. He lasted 83 plays before the knee injury last year, so both his health and production potential are sketchy.

Rookie Adisa Isaac has the potential to develop into that guy but he is not going to get there this year. He has a lot of good traits, physical talent, and a great motor, but is a bit undersized and raw. While a year or two in the league could bring out the potential, he seems destined for a rotational/backup role for now.  

Kyle Van Noy is sort of the duct tape of the Ravens' defense. He is the utility player who is not great at any position but can play most of them well enough in a pinch. Van Noy saw most of his action on the edge last year because that is where he was needed. He managed to turn 563 plays into 30 total tackles, 9 sacks, and a couple of forced fumbles. He is the experienced veteran of the front seven and will be a factor in the Ravens' success, but not a big enough factor to help us win championships.

• Edge Kyle Van Noy – Marginal IDP value
• Edge Odafe Oweh – Sleeper with a low floor and unknown ceiling  
• Edge David Ojabo – Injury risk outweighs the upside
• Edge Adisa Isaac – Dynasty watch list
• Edge Tavius Robinson – Marginal impact expected
• DT Justin Madubuike – Solid if unproven DT1 with elite potential
• DT Broderick Washington – Marginal value at best
• DT Michael Pierce – Marginal value
• DT Brent Urban – No impact
• DT Travis Jones – No impact

Linebackers

Baltimore solved the linebacker puzzle for the long term when they traded for Roquan Smith in 2022. Smith is a seven-season veteran and one of the game's best at the position. He plays every snap, has great range, strong cover skills, a knack for the big play, and the leadership quality teams look for in a linebacker. There is no real weakness to his game.  

From the IDP perspective, Smith is a safe and dependable LB1. Even with his season split between two teams in 2022, he managed 103 solo tackles, 68 assists, 4 sacks, 3 interceptions, 6 passes defended, and a ranking of second among linebackers. In six seasons as a pro, he has five top-12 finishes, including three consecutive in the top three before moving to Baltimore.

In his first full season with the Ravens, Smith slipped to number nine. Many fantasy managers see that as an outlier and expect another top three this year. I am not one of them. When he was in Chicago, Smith was the head of the snake. The elite stand out on a mediocre defense. Thus his competition for production was average. In Baltimore, he is an elite player on an elite defense and is surrounded by outstanding players. The fact that he was still a top-ten linebacker last year is a salute to just how good Smith is. I still see him as an elite tier LB1 but only because there are about a dozen linebackers packed into that tier this year.

The Ravens made no effort to retain Patrick Queen this offseason. They prepared for his departure by selecting Trenton Simpson in the third round last year. It's hard to say if the organization prepared to let Queen walk because they didn't want to commit the money to keep him, or because they were lukewarm to him as a player. Whatever the reason, it is Simpson's turn in 2024.

With the growing complexity of today's defenses, it was good for Simpson to have a year in the scheme before breaking into the lineup. When it comes to long-term IDP value, Simpson could have landed in a better place. Smith is under contract through the 2027 season, meaning Simpson will remain in his shadow for nearly his entire rookie contract. The Ravens proved last year that they can support two productive linebackers. Both Smith and Queen finished in the top 20 but there is no doubt that the stiff competition for tackles pushed them down the rankings a few slots. Simpson should be a productive every-week starter for us but I see him as more of a priority LB3 with a little upside.

If the Ravens have a weakness it is depth at the linebacker positions. Chris Board is a serviceable veteran who can fill a hole for a game or two but will be a liability if called upon for a long stretch. Malik Harrison is a two-down thumper who has been spending time with the edge guys because he is so bad in coverage. Beyond those two, the team has no one at linebacker with more than a few snaps of NFL experience.  

• ILB Roquan Smith – Close as it gets to a sure LB1
• ILB Trenton Simpson – Solid third starter with low LB2 potential
• ILB Chris Board – Injury sleeper with marginal potential
• ILB Malik Harrison – No impact

Defensive Backs

For many years, Baltimore was the place great safeties went to do nothing. That changed last season with the emergence of Kyle Hamilton. At six four and 220 pounds, Hamilton is like having an extra linebacker on the field. One that runs a 4.5 in the 40-yard dash, hits like a train and has hands like a receiver. He was relegated to the third safety role for much of his rookie season. In year two, Hamilton showed us why he was worthy of being a 14th overall pick.

Hamilton produced just 64 tackles and 17 assists last year. Those numbers are on the light side but are pretty good considering he missed the last two contests and played behind a strong front seven with a pair of tackling machines at inside linebacker. It was Hamilton's playmaking that elevated him to the IDP game's ninth-ranked defensive back. Four interceptions, three sacks, thirteen passes defended, a forced fumble, and a score helped add up to 11.6 points per game.

If there is a knock on Hamilton's fantasy value, it is consistency. He reached double-digit points in seven games last season, including 20+ points in three. Hamilton turned in six or fewer in six other games. He can win a game for you one week and then lose one for you the next, making him a gambler's DB1.

Marcus Williams missed seven games last year, and Hamilton missed two. That allowed Geno Stone to make nine starts while seeing a lot of action in every game. If Williams can stay out of the trainer's room, that playing time will all be his now that Stone calls Cincinnati home.

Williams is a good player and will tease us with big numbers here and there, but he has struggled with consistency over his entire seven-year career and has missed 13 games with injuries since joining the Ravens in 2022. With Stone gone and seventh-round rookie Sanoussi Kane taking his roster spot. Baltimore desperately needs Williams to be on the field.    

Good as they were versus the pass last year, Baltimore may have gotten even better at the corner position. Marlon Humphrey is an excellent cover man with a great combination of size, speed, and ball-hawking skills. He usually puts up good tackle totals for a corner, supplementing those numbers with a large helping of big plays. In 2022, Humphrey accounted for six turnovers and three sacks to go with his 72 combined tackles, adding up to a top-ten finish among corners. Throw out the injury-shortened 2021 and 2023 seasons, and Humphrey has three consecutive with at least 64 total tackles and at least eight splash plays. In 2020 he blew up for 70 tackles, 12 assists, 11 passes defended, a whopping 8 forced fumbles, a pick, and two sacks. His average of 11.5 points per game was second among corners that season. Baltimore is going to be ahead a lot so the defense is going to see plenty of pass attempts. If Humphrey can stay on the field, he could be a late steal in corner-required leagues.

One of the most impressive things about Baltimore's stellar defense last year is that they did it despite having eight different corners see action while the only player in the secondary not to miss time was backup safety Geno Stone.

For much of the season, the team had Brandon Stephens on one corner and whoever was healthy enough to play on the other. Stephens and Humphrey should be in the week one lineup, but don't overlook first-round rookie Nate Wiggins.  

Wiggins is a flyweight at 171 pounds but is tall, blazing fast, and smooth. He is not particularly physical and does not seem to relish contact, but instincts and versatility will give the coaching staff a lot of options. His IDP value will come down to how Wiggins is used. If they play him in the slot where his inexperience is easier to cover for, he has a shot at useful production. They could elect to play Wiggins outside and shift Stephens to nickel corner.

Baltimore projects to be ahead a lot, so opponents will be throwing often. That is a good sign that someone here is going to put up useful numbers,

• SS Kyle Hamilton – DB1 totals with week-to-week inconsistencies
• FS Marcus Williams – Fantasy tease
• SS Ar'Darius Washington – Injury sleeper
• FS Sanoussi Kane – No impact expected
• CB Marlon Humphrey – Potential CB1
• CB Nate Wiggins – Rookie corner rule
• CB Brandon Stephens – Possible depth in leagues starting two corners
• CB Arthur Maulet – No impact
• CB T.J. Tampa – Dynasty watch prospect

That's a wrap for part 12. Coming up next, the NFC North     

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