Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 21: Atlanta Falcons

Photo: USA Today Sports

Bad defense has become a tradition in Atlanta. The team hired Ryan Nielsen last year to turn that around. He had them headed in the right direction. The Falcons reached 40 sacks in a season for the first time since 2004. They were seventh in passing yards, ninth in yards per attempt, and the run defense was ninth in yards per carry. They were still near the bottom of the league with 16 takeaways, but overall, it was a drastic improvement. As a result, they fired the entire coaching staff.  

Raheem Morris takes over as head coach, with Jimmy Lake as defensive coordinator. It is Lake’s first job as a coordinator at the NFL level, but his record with the Washington Huskies in the Pac-12 was impressive. Atlanta ran a hybrid scheme under Nielsen. Lake’s scheme will be a fast, aggressive, one-gap 3-4. Atlanta ran a 3-4 under Dean Pees before Nielsen arrived, so they still have personnel geared toward that scheme.

The Falcons all but passed over the defense in free agency. Edge defender James Smith-Williams was the only addition likely to see much action, but he might not be a starter. However, they hit the defensive side hard in the draft, adding a pair of linemen, an edge, and an off-ball linebacker in rounds two through five. It is hard to say, at this stage, how successful the defense will be, but on paper, there are holes to fill.

Defensive Linemen

The Falcons posted a respectable 42 sacks last year, then promptly parted ways with Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree, who tied for the team lead at six and a half. With those two gone, Lorenzo Carter and Arnold Ebiketie are the projected starters.

Ebiketie was a second-round pick in 2022. His rookie numbers were disappointing at 21-9-2 on over 500 snaps. His playing time slipped under 400 snaps in year two, but his production went up, at least in the sack column. At 16-9-6 with a pair of forced fumbles, Ebiketie was hot on the heels of the team sack-leaders despite seeing about half as much playing time. From that perspective, the organization might have something in their third-year player. On the other hand, he will need to step up in the tackle columns before fantasy managers will take an interest. That does not seem likely to happen.

Lorenzo Carter was a second-round selection by the Giants in 2018. He has been a serviceable contributor at both of his stops. Heading into year seven, Carter has 22 career sacks with a single-season best of five. He is a good edge setter versus the run and gives his team a decent option to cover some snaps, but Carter is never going to be a difference-maker for his teams or ours.  

Atlanta is short on veteran depth at the edge position. Their most experienced backups are third-year pro DeAngelo Malone, who has 18 career tackles and 1 sack, James Smith-Williams, who spent three seasons as a backup in Washington, and last year’s third-round pick Zach Harrison, who sees most of his time at tackle.

The team has a long way to go in terms of talent, but it does have a third-round rookie with potential. Brian Trice played under Coach Lake at Washington, so the two already have a relationship. Knowing Lake’s scheme is a plus that should help Trice get off to a faster start than other rookies.

He lacks the quick twitch or blazing speed of the game’s great pass rushers and can be bullied at the point of attack in the run game, but Trice is all effort and has the frame to add muscle. His skill set is a good fit as the scheme uses a lot of stunts and movement to keep blockers from getting clean shots and allow defenders to find cracks to squeeze through. Trice was a team captain at Washington and checks the box for college production. In two seasons as a starter for the Huskies, he totaled 87 tackles and 18 sacks with a pair of turnovers.

The Falcons are treating the defense as a complete rebuild; at least they started it right. Grady Jarrett is among the league’s outstanding interior linemen, but he is 31 and coming off an ACL injury. Atlanta addressed the need for a franchise quarterback in round one; they came back to get Ruke Orhorhoro near the top of round two.

Clemson was loaded with defensive line talent, so Orhorhoro never had the position all to himself. That took a toll on his stats. Over three seasons, he totaled 88 combined stops with 25 for loss and 12 sacks. To better understand his potential, we can look at some scouting reports. He is explosive and knows how to use leverage to create openings as a pass rusher. He is relentless and does a good job of playing off blocks to make tackles in tight places. There is room for improvement, but he is an ascending player with the talent to excel both against the run and as an interior pass rusher.

The Falcons added another lineman in round four. Brandon Dorlus is somewhat of a utility player coming out of Oregon. At 283 pounds, he is not quick or fast enough to be a great edge defender but is on the small side for a tackle. He can play the edge from a two-point stance or work with his hand down as an interior penetrator. Dorlus uses fast hands and upper body strength for quick wins as a pass rusher. He could give the team some reps on the edge if called upon to do so, but more likely, he will be asked to add some muscle to play the three-technique tackle spot.

If he is healthy, Grady Jarrett is still one of the league’s better defensive tackles. He earned a starting role as a second-year player in 2016 and has been dependable for his team and ours ever since. When it comes to the battle in the trenches, the low man usually wins. At 6-foot-0 and 305 pounds, Jarrett is a quick and athletic big man with a low center of gravity and a naturally lower pad level than most blockers. He is among the league’s outstanding run defenders with a combination of power and enough wiggle to contribute as a pass rusher. With 34.5 sacks over his nine NFL seasons, Jarrett is a proven commodity and has consistently been a borderline DT1 or a quality second starter for those in tackle-required leagues. That said, we need to see that he is fully recovered from the ACL.

David Onyemata followed Nielsen over from New Orleans and now finds himself in a scheme that could make him more relevant. Like Jarrett, Onyemata is more than just a big body to take up space. He contributed 23 sacks in six seasons as a starter for the Saints working at both defensive tackle positions during his time there. Onyemata is a candidate for the nose tackle position this year but is not locked into that spot. Considering the team’s options, it would not be a surprise to see him and Jarrett as the starting three-technique tackles with the rookies rotating in.

Onyemata was borderline roster-worthy as a third tackle during his time with the Saints. His tackle totals were up a little in his first season with Atlanta. With 50 combined stops, 4 sacks, and a pair of forced fumbles, Onyemata ranked 29th among tackles in 2023. A top-25 finish this year is a possibility.   

• Edge Bralen Trice – Possible dynasty target
• Edge Arnold Ebiketie – Breakout watchlist
• Edge DeAngelo Malone – No impact expected
• Edge Lorenzo Carter – Marginal IDP value at best
• Edge/DT James Smith-Williams – No impact
• Edge Bradlee Anae – Longshot to make the final roster
• DT Grady Jarrett – Priority DT2 if healthy
• DT/Edge Zach Harrison – Deep sleeper to keep an eye on
• DT Ruke Orhorhoro – Dynasty alert
• DT Ta’Quon Graham – No impact
• DT Brandon Dorlus – Could have value down the road
• NT David Onyemata –  Target as depth with a low DT2 ceiling
• NT Eddie Goldman – No impact/roster bubble