Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 21: Atlanta Falcons

Bad defense has become a tradition in Atlanta. The team hired Ryan Nielsen last year to turn that around. He had them headed in the right direction. The Falcons reached 40 sacks in a season for the first time since 2004. They were seventh in passing yards, ninth in yards per attempt, and the run defense was ninth in yards per carry. They were still near the bottom of the league with 16 takeaways, but overall, it was a drastic improvement. As a result, they fired the entire coaching staff.  

Raheem Morris takes over as head coach, with Jimmy Lake as defensive coordinator. It is Lake’s first job as a coordinator at the NFL level, but his record with the Washington Huskies in the Pac-12 was impressive. Atlanta ran a hybrid scheme under Nielsen. Lake’s scheme will be a fast, aggressive, one-gap 3-4. Atlanta ran a 3-4 under Dean Pees before Nielsen arrived, so they still have personnel geared toward that scheme.

The Falcons all but passed over the defense in free agency. Edge defender James Smith-Williams was the only addition likely to see much action, but he might not be a starter. However, they hit the defensive side hard in the draft, adding a pair of linemen, an edge, and an off-ball linebacker in rounds two through five. It is hard to say, at this stage, how successful the defense will be, but on paper, there are holes to fill.

Defensive Linemen

The Falcons posted a respectable 42 sacks last year, then promptly parted ways with Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree, who tied for the team lead at six and a half. With those two gone, Lorenzo Carter and Arnold Ebiketie are the projected starters.

Ebiketie was a second-round pick in 2022. His rookie numbers were disappointing at 21-9-2 on over 500 snaps. His playing time slipped under 400 snaps in year two, but his production went up, at least in the sack column. At 16-9-6 with a pair of forced fumbles, Ebiketie was hot on the heels of the team sack-leaders despite seeing about half as much playing time. From that perspective, the organization might have something in their third-year player. On the other hand, he will need to step up in the tackle columns before fantasy managers will take an interest. That does not seem likely to happen.

Lorenzo Carter was a second-round selection by the Giants in 2018. He has been a serviceable contributor at both of his stops. Heading into year seven, Carter has 22 career sacks with a single-season best of five. He is a good edge setter versus the run and gives his team a decent option to cover some snaps, but Carter is never going to be a difference-maker for his teams or ours.  

Atlanta is short on veteran depth at the edge position. Their most experienced backups are third-year pro DeAngelo Malone, who has 18 career tackles and 1 sack, James Smith-Williams, who spent three seasons as a backup in Washington, and last year’s third-round pick Zach Harrison, who sees most of his time at tackle.

The team has a long way to go in terms of talent, but it does have a third-round rookie with potential. Brian Trice played under Coach Lake at Washington, so the two already have a relationship. Knowing Lake’s scheme is a plus that should help Trice get off to a faster start than other rookies.

He lacks the quick twitch or blazing speed of the game’s great pass rushers and can be bullied at the point of attack in the run game, but Trice is all effort and has the frame to add muscle. His skill set is a good fit as the scheme uses a lot of stunts and movement to keep blockers from getting clean shots and allow defenders to find cracks to squeeze through. Trice was a team captain at Washington and checks the box for college production. In two seasons as a starter for the Huskies, he totaled 87 tackles and 18 sacks with a pair of turnovers.

The Falcons are treating the defense as a complete rebuild; at least they started it right. Grady Jarrett is among the league’s outstanding interior linemen, but he is 31 and coming off an ACL injury. Atlanta addressed the need for a franchise quarterback in round one; they came back to get Ruke Orhorhoro near the top of round two.

Clemson was loaded with defensive line talent, so Orhorhoro never had the position all to himself. That took a toll on his stats. Over three seasons, he totaled 88 combined stops with 25 for loss and 12 sacks. To better understand his potential, we can look at some scouting reports. He is explosive and knows how to use leverage to create openings as a pass rusher. He is relentless and does a good job of playing off blocks to make tackles in tight places. There is room for improvement, but he is an ascending player with the talent to excel both against the run and as an interior pass rusher.

The Falcons added another lineman in round four. Brandon Dorlus is somewhat of a utility player coming out of Oregon. At 283 pounds, he is not quick or fast enough to be a great edge defender but is on the small side for a tackle. He can play the edge from a two-point stance or work with his hand down as an interior penetrator. Dorlus uses fast hands and upper body strength for quick wins as a pass rusher. He could give the team some reps on the edge if called upon to do so, but more likely, he will be asked to add some muscle to play the three-technique tackle spot.

If he is healthy, Grady Jarrett is still one of the league’s better defensive tackles. He earned a starting role as a second-year player in 2016 and has been dependable for his team and ours ever since. When it comes to the battle in the trenches, the low man usually wins. At 6-foot-0 and 305 pounds, Jarrett is a quick and athletic big man with a low center of gravity and a naturally lower pad level than most blockers. He is among the league’s outstanding run defenders with a combination of power and enough wiggle to contribute as a pass rusher. With 34.5 sacks over his nine NFL seasons, Jarrett is a proven commodity and has consistently been a borderline DT1 or a quality second starter for those in tackle-required leagues. That said, we need to see that he is fully recovered from the ACL.

David Onyemata followed Nielsen over from New Orleans and now finds himself in a scheme that could make him more relevant. Like Jarrett, Onyemata is more than just a big body to take up space. He contributed 23 sacks in six seasons as a starter for the Saints working at both defensive tackle positions during his time there. Onyemata is a candidate for the nose tackle position this year but is not locked into that spot. Considering the team’s options, it would not be a surprise to see him and Jarrett as the starting three-technique tackles with the rookies rotating in.

Onyemata was borderline roster-worthy as a third tackle during his time with the Saints. His tackle totals were up a little in his first season with Atlanta. With 50 combined stops, 4 sacks, and a pair of forced fumbles, Onyemata ranked 29th among tackles in 2023. A top-25 finish this year is a possibility.   

• Edge Bralen Trice – Possible dynasty target
• Edge Arnold Ebiketie – Breakout watchlist
• Edge DeAngelo Malone – No impact expected
• Edge Lorenzo Carter – Marginal IDP value at best
• Edge/DT James Smith-Williams – No impact
• Edge Bradlee Anae – Longshot to make the final roster
• DT Grady Jarrett – Priority DT2 if healthy
• DT/Edge Zach Harrison – Deep sleeper to keep an eye on
• DT Ruke Orhorhoro – Dynasty alert
• DT Ta’Quon Graham – No impact
• DT Brandon Dorlus – Could have value down the road
• NT David Onyemata –  Target as depth with a low DT2 ceiling
• NT Eddie Goldman – No impact/roster bubble

Linebackers

It was supposed to be a breakout season for the Falcons’ most talented inside linebacker. Instead, a week one shoulder injury caused Troy Andersen to miss week two, and then a torn pectoral ended his 2023 season in week three. While Andersen remains an unproven commodity entering his third season, his talent and potential, both on the field and in-the-box scores, create a lot of excitement.

Anderson put up impressive numbers at Montana State but not all were generated from playing linebacker. He made starts at four positions during his college career, including quarterback, running back, inside linebacker, and outside linebacker. He even played a little safety, making starts on both sides of the ball in the same game at times. Anderson is an outstanding, versatile athlete with the combination of size, speed, smarts, and heart that coaches drool over. If John Madden were still with us, he would say Anderson is a football player.

Anderson lit up the box scores wherever he played in college and won a laundry list of awards along the way, including first-team All-Big Sky conference at outside linebacker in 2019, first-team All-Big Sky conference at inside linebacker, along with conference defensive player of the year, and first-team All-American in 2021. Despite being raw and unpolished, all of those accolades, impressive game film, statistical production, and off-the-chart measurables were enough to get him drafted in the second round in 2022.

His success as a college linebacker came from a combination of raw ability, intelligence, determination, and lesser competition. He did not transition to a full-time linebacker until his final season at Montana State. The lack of experience kept Andersen from playing a lot as a rookie. When he did get on the field, he made plays. On roughly a 42% share of the playing time, Andersen put up 69 total tackles and a turnover. With 620 snaps in the NFL, he remains raw and unproven. Yet, from the moment his name was called on draft day, the organization saw Andersen as the future of their inside linebacker position. He is off to a rocky start but still has a good shot at being a special one in the long run.

Under the previous coaching regime, the Falcons regularly fielded two linebackers. There is no way to tell if that will be the case under Coach Lake. When Ryan Neilsen came over from the Saints last offseason, Kaden Elliss followed him. The established relationship and Ellis’s knowledge of the scheme made him an easy choice as one of the starting linebackers. With Nielsen gone, Elliss no longer has that advantage.  

Leading up to the week eighteen finale, Elliss had missed four snaps on the season. He was a steady veteran presence for the team and posted numbers worthy of a marginal third starter in most formats. At 82-40-4 with 3 pass breakups and no turnovers, he was nothing special. Experience makes him the favorite for the job entering training camp, but Elliss will have to hold off some contenders to keep it. Even if he wins the job, he is not guaranteed to keep an every-down workload.

Nate Landman made the team as an undrafted rookie in 2022 but never saw the field on defense. When Andersen was lost last year, Landman got his opportunity and made the most of it. He logged 808 snaps on the season or about 72% of the Falcons’ defensive plays. Landman totaled 110 tackles, adding 2 sacks, an interception, 3 forced fumbles, and 3 passes defended. Between weeks four and seventeen, he averaged 11.9 points per game and ranked 22nd among linebackers, well ahead of Elliss who was LB33. With the Falcons already one of the youngest teams in the league and in full rebuild mode, why not give Landman a shot at the starting job over Ellis?

There is one more player who could be in the mix here. Atlanta used a fifth-round pick on Notre Dame’s JD Bertrand. He’s not fast or even quick, is not particularly big, has average range, and sometimes struggles to get off blocks smoothly. All he does is make plays. Bertrand was a three-year starter and two-time captain for the Fighting Irish. He doesn’t make a lot of splash plays but is a physical, downhill run defender with good anticipation and a nose for the ball. Bertrand is efficient in short zone coverages and can get home on the blitz.

Bertrand is an underdog but has the advantage of being picked by the current coaching staff, specifically to fit the new scheme. Bertrand could be in the conversation if the coaches are looking for a two-down guy to compliment Andersen.   

• ILB Troy Andersen – Unproven but gifted with a high-ceiling
• ILB Kaden Elliss – Low-end LB3 or good depth if he lands a full-time role
• ILB JD Bertrand  – Deep sleeper/dynasty prospect
• ILB Nate Landman – Sleeper with high LB3 potential

Defensive Backs

All of those Falcons fans hoping for a turnaround from the pass defense are probably in for a disappointing season. The organization simply did not have the cap room or draft capital to address all their needs, so the secondary will have to wait. On the other hand, if you are a Falcons fan and an IDP manager, you can at least get some enjoyment by drafting Jessie Bates III.

The Bengals’ second-round pick in 2018, Bates was a top-ten safety for each of his first three years with the team. Then Cincinnati started winning and playing much better defense, so his numbers slipped below IDP consideration. Signing with a struggling Falcons team not only rekindled his production, it catapulted him to elite status as the fantasy game’s top safety. Only Antoine Winfield Jr came close to Bates’ average of almost 15 points per game. Just over two points separated the two, while the drop to third was a whopping 34.5. Bates was second among safeties with 91 tackles, third with 42 assists, and only Winfield accounted for more turnovers.

If it were his first big year, there would be room for skepticism with Bates. Since it was his fourth top-10 in six seasons, there is nothing to be skeptical about. Expecting a repeat of last year’s stellar numbers might be pushing it, but every time he has played on a team with a defense that finished in the bottom half of the league, Bates has been highly productive. With that consideration, he should be good for another great year.  

The other safety position is far from cut and dry. Richie Grant opened last season at strong safety and played virtually every snap there through week ten. Coming out of the bye in week eleven, however, he was sharing time with DeMarcco Hellams. Grant lost the starting job to Hellams in week fifteen and only got it back in week eighteen because Hellams was hurt.

All that was with the old coaching staff. The new regime has given no clues as to how they see the position but there have been some articles over the offseason, from beatwriters and those around the team, praising Hellams. Between the two, Grant and Hellams produced 91 tackles, 53 assists, 3 sacks, and 3 turnovers. There was some overlap where both were on the field at the same time, but that did not happen regularly.

We could see a heated competition between these two, or the Falcons could feature a three-safety, big-nickel as their base defense. All we know for sure is that the strong safety position produced a lot of fantasy points in 2023 and is likely to do so again. This situation will be on our priority watchlist once camp and pre-season games come around.    

In A.J. Terell the Falcons have a strong number-one corner with the versatility to match up with opponents’ top receivers. He can play press man-to-man or zone and can cover big physical guys or blazing-fast ones. What Atlanta desperately needs is a quality second and third corner.

The team hopes to have one of those guys in last year’s fourth-round pick, Clark Phillips III. He made no defensive appearances as a rookie until week ten but started the final six games. Considering the limited participation, Phillips’ 27 combined tackles and 5 passes defended are also reason for optimism.

Dee Alford spent much of last season as the team’s third corner. He is the favorite to retain that job for now, though he will have competition from Mike Hughes and former Cardinal Antonio Hamilton.

It has been a long time since we got useful fantasy numbers from an Atlanta corner. To emphasize just how little value there was among these guys in 2023, Jeff Okudah led the group with 4.8 points per game. Phillips is worth keeping an eye on since the limited experience virtually makes him a rookie. There is no one here worthy of roster consideration until someone gives us a reason.    

• FS Jessie Bates III – Elite tier S1 with top-three potential
• SS DeMarcco Hellams – Watchlist sleeper with good upside
• SS Richie Grant – Risky target that could pay dividends
• FS Micah Abernathy – No impact
• CB A.J. Terrell – No impact
• CB Clark Phillips III – Wachlist worthy
• CB Antonio Hamilton – No impact
• CB Mike Hughes – No impact
• CB Dee Alford – No impact

That does it for part 21 of this year’s pre-season offering. The Saints are up next.  

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