Welcome to the best week of football of the year! Dynasty staffers Corey Spala, Andy Hicks, Ryan Weisse, and Matt Montgomery hit their movers coming out of Week 12.
The Dynasty staff gathered to work through multiple quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are the biggest risers or fallers in rankings. Check out the Footballguys Dynasty Football show with Jagger May and myself for more Dynasty content. We do three episodes weekly, discussing a variety of relevant Dynasty trends.
Dynasty Movement at Quarterback
C.J. Stroud, Houston
Corey Spala: I am not saying it is time to have a conversation, but it is time to consider moving Stroud down the rankings. He currently ranks 24th in expected points added per dropback and is 27th in quarterback rating. There has been a noticeable decline, possibly due to variables outside Stroud's control. It could be due to an amplified ranking due to Stroud's age and immediate production from his rookie season. He has regressed. I would move down Stroud from our current QB4 ranking.
Andy Hicks: It is time to start ringing the alarm bells regarding the performances of Stroud. Oddly, at the same time, Bryce Young starts looking good. Stroud has four touchdowns over the last six games. He doesn't look as crisp, and opposing defenses seem to be able to rattle him. Stroud has shown enough in his career to remain confident he can be an elite quarterback. He is not currently, and his ranking must reflect that.
Kyler Murray, Arizona
Matthew Montgomery: I love Murray just as much as the next manager, but we should have a higher standard for quarterback in fantasy. Murray has all the skills necessary to be the #1 overall pick and was potentially a two-sport athlete in the NFL. Still, I don't ever feel like he strings that talent together long enough to be a true game-breaking player in the NFL. The stats are okay; he is electric to watch, but if I told you that Patrick Mahomes II is one spot higher in points scored this season, how would that make you feel? Mahomes has been droppable in redraft, and I understand we don't do that type of thing in Dynasty, but Murray, who is a good player, is a little overhyped compared to what we are seeing him put together on the field.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
Ryan Weisse: Looking over my rankings, I didn't have any movement at quarterback, so instead, I'll defend having Burrow rated 4th while his consensus is 7th right now. While it's easy to see Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson as their tier, Burrow should be at the top of Tier 2. He's only 27, tied to one of the best wide receivers and offensive schemes in the league, and is playing fantastic this year. He's the QB3 in fantasy this season and is on pace for 4679 yards and 41 touchdowns, both career highs. I can't look at Patrick Mahomes II or CJ Stroud this season and fathom wanting either one over Burrow in fantasy football.
Dynasty Movement at Tight End
Theo Johnson, NY Giants
Corey Spala: Johnson has three straight games with six targets. It is eye-opening to see immediate playing time and opportunity for a rookie tight end; he is averaging 84% snaps per game. The Giants should see a superior team and quarterback situation in the future. I am not worried about the Greg Dulcich waiver claim; it is more of an indication for Daniel Bellinger. Johnson is our TE30, and I would be comfortable moving him up to the early to mid-twenties.
Noah Gray, Kansas City
Corey Spala: I wrote about him previously, and Gray continues strengthening his outlook on Dynasty. He plays alongside Travis Kelce, D'Andre Hopkins, and Xavier Worthy, yet he finds meaningful opportunities. Gray has had four touchdowns over the last two games, and though this will not be sustainable, it is essential to note that he is seeing the opportunities to produce. He has three red zone targets over the last two weeks. He is our current TE42 and should move up the rankings.
Andy Hicks: Gray is having the best year of his career to date, and there are still six weeks left in the season. As Travis Kelce ages, the Chiefs did a masterstroke of roster management by signing Gray to a contract extension before he broke out. He lacks the upside of Kelce, but he can be a bottom-end starting option or streaming consideration for the Chiefs in future years.
Sam LaPorta, Detroit
Matthew Montgomery: What happened to the player we saw last season emerge as a genuine threat in the passing game? I was expecting Laporta to take another step forward, but what we got last season may be an outlier of a year for the young tight end. The craziest part about this whole thing is that he is catching his targets at a higher rate than last season, but he is 80 targets off his total from last season with just six total games to go. Something happened with the offensive philosophy this season versus last season, and unfortunately for Laporta managers, it appears he got the short end of the stick.
Jonnu Smith, Miami
Andy Hicks: Coming out of nowhere since the Dolphins bye week, Smith is on track for the best fantasy ranking of his career to date. He has been the number-one fantasy tight end since week seven. He has had good stretches in his career before, only for them to even out stats-wise. Ride him while he is hot, but caution still prevails while he has to be given some ranking reevaluation.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas
Ryan Weisse: Tight ends in Dallas are just copied and pasted. They've been chasing something since they lost Jason Witten, but no one is coming close to Witten's success. They went from Blake Jarwin to Dalton Schultz to Ferguson, and they've all been okay but not great for fantasy and buoyed by volume. It looked like Ferguson would turn that page after 2023, but he started poorly this year, and Luke Schoonmaker looks better when he misses time. I had Ferguson as a top-10 Dynasty tight end based on 2023 and his age, but it seems plausible that he could lose his job to Schoonmaker next season. He is too risky for too little reward.
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Dynasty Movement at Running Back
Tyrone Tracy Jr., NY Giants
Corey Spala: Tracy had a box score letdown in Week 12; however, they were trailing Tampa Bay all game. It was encouraging to see him get four receptions and be efficient with his 13 touches, accumulating 70 yards and 5.4 yards per touch. Notably, he has three fumbles in the last two games. Team situations can only increase when you are at the bottom, and he can work on his handling. He is currently ranked as our RB48. Despite the fumble concerns (and the W12 game script), he should continue to move up the rankings.
Matthew Montgomery: I may be in the minority here, but Tracy may be a volume-dependent player who will leave us wanting more each week. He will give us those flashes of potential that can provide us with "take lock" and be unwilling to adjust our mindset. His three biggest games this season came when he had 19, 22, and 23 opportunities getting the ball. What worries me about him for the rest of this season is the overall dysfunction in the Giants locker room and the team's inability to get him the volume I think he needs as a young player to keep leading this hype train. Outside of Malik Nabers, is he their best-skill player? If so, why does he not get 15+ opportunities per game? I think last week's game against the Buccaneers (ranked in the bottom third against running backs) is more of who Tracy is than the big game against the Panthers.
Braelon Allen, NY Jets
Corey Spala: I see no reason why Allen should be ranked RB29. I understand his age and the upside if he finds himself with a spot-start. I wrote about this last week, but there are numerous running backs ranked below who offer immediate production and a future outlook. I am not undermining the talent, but rather, I am addressing the current situation with a future outlook. I would be more comfortable with a ranking in the mid-to-late 30s.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas
Matthew Montgomery: You're never going to look at Dowdle's stat line and be super impressed, but I would argue that there is just as much value in having a player who won't "lose" you a matchup. In Dynasty formats, we are always looking for who the next breakout star is and who can single-handedly put the team on his back and win us a matchup, and of course, that is a philosophy that needs to remain front of mind. What we take for granted, though, are the players we know who can anchor our team and give us a competitive point floor, and there may be no better player to describe the boring, mundane philosophy of consistency than Dowdle. If he has 3-4 more touchdowns at this point of the season, we are looking at a top-25 running back on the season.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
Andy Hicks: McCaffrey has played three games since returning and has been a fantasy disappointment. Is this the beginning of the end for the superstar? The 49ers offense is struggling, and key players are missing. He hopes to return to form to give optimism for next year, but his ranking must be questioned.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia
Andy Hicks: No running looks better than Barkley in 2024. He is on track for a 2000-yard rushing season, already has double-digit touchdowns, and is the centerpiece of the Eagle's offense. He not only moves to number one in fantasy rankings, but the gap to second is enormous.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England
Ryan Weisse: The allure of Stevenson is fading fast in 2024. He isn't averaging four yards per carry, nor is he catching nearly as many balls as most fantasy managers hoped. He's had one or two good games this season based on fluky touchdowns. At 26 years old, it's hard to imagine him getting better over the next few seasons while the Patriots solve their offensive line problems.
Raheem Mostert, Miami
Ryan Weisse: I was always skeptical of a 32-year-old running back in Dynasty, and it seems Miami is finally ready to move on. Mostert takes more of a back seat to De'Von Achane and Jaylen Wright each week. Hopefully, you sold high on a great 2023 because Mostert is worthless in Dynasty unless the Achane manager wants an insurance policy.
Dynasty Movement at Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee
Corey Spala: Ridley has averaged 8.8 targets per game since D'Andre Hopkins's departure. Notably, he will be turning 30 years old in December. He has averaged 16.9 points per game during the span, too. This is with Will Levis and Mason Rudolph as quarterbacks. He did have nearly two years off from 2021 (stepped away) through 2022 (suspension), if you care about the tread-on-the-tires argument. Ridley provides immediate points and has a future window to utilize those points.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland
Corey Spala: Is this the Jameis Winston effect? The result of having a quarterback capable of throwing the ball is likely to be the result of having a quarterback capable of throwing the ball. Jeudy has averaged nine targets and 94.5 yards per game with Winston in four games. Jeudy will be 26 years old next season and is under contract for two additional seasons. Hopefully, Cleveland will retain Winston or have a new starting quarterback. I am happy Jeudy has found a career resurgence; he should be moving up the rankings from WR59.
Tank Dell, Houston
Matthew Montgomery: There is something wrong with the Houston Texans' passing offense. Houston is one of the few teams that haven't yet had a bye week, and they are still just 15th in passing yards per game. Sure, you can blame it on a sophomore slump from C.J. Stroud, but I believe the honest answer is the injury to Stefon Diggs. Dell is a good player with great potential, but he is not built like a dominant number-one receiver, and because of the loss to Diggs, he is being forced into that role. A number one receiver standing at 5'10" and 165 lbs. just doesn't scare defensive coordinators. I am all in for him when he is a consistent number two receiver, but until the team has a long-term number one option, he may just be a touchdown-dependent player for fantasy managers.
Devaughn Vele, Denver
Matthew Montgomery: I don't know if it is Sean Payton or Bo Nix, but one of those two guys likes Vele, and because of this, the long-term prospects in fantasy football are soaring. He is averaging five targets a game as a rookie, seemingly out of nowhere, and despite his age being 26, I see him being a legit red zone threat for the next few years as Bo Nix develops more and more. HE is 6"5", so he is a size mismatch for defenders, and he is proving that he has a cohesiveness with Nix and the offense that excites me for the next few years.
Quentin Johnston, LA Chargers
Andy Hicks: Receivers are entitled to an off night, but Johnston was woeful against the Ravens in primetime. Drops, a lack of focus, and no confidence. This is the back of an eight-target, two-reception game against the Bengals. It will be hard for the coaching staff to continue to trust him when other options are delivering. The frustrating thing is that the talent is evident—it's time to drop his ranking significantly until further notice.
Xavier Legette, Carolina
Andy Hicks: When Diontae Johnson was traded, the number one receiver position became vacant in Carolina. Legette is doing a great job of stepping up and ensuring his future. The numbers aren't there yet, but he is getting crucial targets and making them count. He had a great offseason and will be an underrated option heading into 2025. First, let us see how he finishes off this year. The signs are good.
Deebo Samuel Sr.., San Francisco
Andy Hicks: Samuel has had two great seasons in his career. The other years, not so much. This is one of those off years where he isn't getting the catches, the combined yardage, or touchdowns. He will be 29 by the time the season ends, and the 49ers offense is asking more questions than it's answering—it's time to move him down based on the majority of his career and not the two good years.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle
Ryan Weisse: While it took a season, Smith-Njigba is starting to show the potential Seattle saw when they made him the first receiver drafted in 2023. He has supplanted Tyler Lockett and has even outplayed DK Metcalf in 2024. There was a brief buy window earlier this season, but Smith-Njigba is now firmly in the Top 20, maybe even Top 15, and will cost a lot for the next few seasons.
Ladd McConkey, LA Chargers
Ryan Weisse: It took some time, but the concerns over the Chargers' run-first offense seem to be put to bed. While they prefer the run, Justin Herbert is again proving to be an elite quarterback and the sixth-best quarterback in fantasy since the team's Week 6 bye. In that same span, McConkey is the ninth-best wide receiver in fantasy. Volume was the only genuine concern that kept me from ranking McConkey in my top 20, and I am comfortable enough to move him there now. This offense looks excellent and should only improve over the next few seasons.