Dynasty Movement: Week 9

Jeff Bell moderates a panel of Footballguys staffers, including Ryan Weisse, Corey Spala, Jason Wood, Andy Hicks, and Matt Montgomery while they discuss their biggest movers in Dynasty rankings.

Jeff Bell's Dynasty Movement: Week 9 Jeff Bell Published 10/31/2024

© Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Jameis Winston may have saved the Browns' season, and more wide receivers were injured in Week 8. The Dynasty staff gathered to work through multiple quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are the biggest risers or fallers in rankings. Check out the Footballguys Dynasty Football show with Jagger May and myself for more Dynasty content. We do three episodes weekly, discussing a variety of relevant Dynasty trends.

Dynasty Movement at Quarterback

Bo Nix, Denver

Jason Wood - The path to fantasy relevance for Nix was clear from the start: he needed to sustain his collegiate propensity for high-completion, low-ADoT passing while also using his mobility aggressively to keep plays alive and gain chunk plays. Halfway through his rookie season, Nix has done precisely that and is already a top-10 fantasy quarterback despite meager passing statistics. As a dynasty manager, it’s important to remember that quarterbacks rarely peak in their first few seasons, so breakout rookie performances should be invested aggressively. Will Nix ever become an elite, high-volume passer? Probably not, but as long as he maintains his mobility and the Broncos add more weapons who play to his strengths (e.g., receivers who are dynamic in the open field after the catch), he could be a valuable asset in superflex formats for years to come.

Corey Spala – Nix has proven his game-managing abilities throughout the season. Over the last six games, Nix is 5-1 with ten touchdowns and one turnover. Sean Payton has found his quarterback, and the duo is building a solid rapport. Nix’s bonus of rushing upside is the cherry on top. He has four rushing touchdowns this season, four games over 30 yards rushing, and two games over 60 yards. His passing production leaves more to be desired. I am optimistic Denver will continue to build around their quarterback in the 2025 offseason.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis

Jason Wood - It’s too early to give up on Richardson entirely, but it’s too far along to blindly view him as a coveted asset for rebuilding teams looking to acquire young talent. Richardson has started ten games and has one of the lowest completion rates of any quarterback in the last 25 years. He’s also missed too many games, and this past week, he removed himself from play—while healthy—because he was tired. At the risk of being labeled an old-school curmudgeon, I cannot fathom how that decision sits with his coaches and teammates. I’ve never seen anything like it in pee wee, high school, college, or the pros. Don’t let the Josh Allen comparisons fool you; Allen’s evolution from terrible to All-Pro is a once-in-a-generation outcome. Historical data and empiricism suggest Richardson’s rocky start indicates a much lower career ceiling than his current valuation suggests.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami

Ryan Weisse—I was never the highest on Tagovailoa, but my ranking didn't reflect my true feelings. With him being just 26 and tied to two of the league's most exciting receivers, he should be a top-15 quarterback. However, his injury history is just plain terrifying. Last year, he led the league in yards and was barely a top-15 quarterback. With this rookie class looking better every game they play, Tagovailoa needed to move down and is now outside my Top 20.

Andy Hicks - Great to see Tagovailoa back in uniform. Most quarterbacks need to be extra careful of hits. None more so than the concussion-prone Dolphins quarterback. If he plays carefully like he managed the entire 2023 season, all signs are good. One moment of recklessness or poor protection and it could be the end. He moves back up the rankings but with a dose of skepticism.

Jameis Winston, Cleveland

Andy Hicks - Due to circumstances, Winston gets a chance to push for significant playing time and an opportunity to resurrect his career. So far, so good. I am worried about what the team did with Dorian Thompson-Robinson in elevating him to the backup role above Winston before Deshaun Watson’s injury. The concern is one bad Winston interception, and Thompson-Robinson gets another opportunity. Winston is the better option for the team. 

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville

Matthew Montgomery- Don’t look now, but Trevor Lawrence is beginning to silence some haters. Since Week 4, he has a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio and has ten total touchdowns. He is also doing this against formidable defenses such as the Packers, currently #7 against quarterback, and the Bears, ranked second. Maybe he hasn’t met the expectations since entering the league, but he is far from a washed player and is still just 25 years old.  

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Dynasty Movement at Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit

Jason Wood - I’ve moved Gibbs up to the No. 1 overall running back, leapfrogging Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. While that may seem bold, there’s a lot to like. The Lions have a well-rounded, deep roster with an elite offensive line, aggressive and effective coaching, and multi-year stability—except for the potential loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Even with David Montgomery putting up massive numbers, Gibbs has been phenomenal in starting his career. While Montgomery isn’t going anywhere, we can’t rule out Gibbs having the backfield to himself or sharing it with a lesser option than Montgomery as soon as 2025 or 2026. And let’s be honest, neither Robinson nor Hall appears more likely to have a traditional workhorse role, as they share backfields with Tyler Allgeier and Braelon Allen, respectively.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., NY Giants

Jason Wood - Well, that happened fast. Tracy acquitted himself well in Devin Singletary’s absence, but few expected him to maintain the lead role upon Singletary’s return. Despite the Giants having an awful offense—once again—ranking 31st in points scored, Tracy has been explosive. For a team desperate to rebuild around young assets, there’s no reason to think Tracy won’t get the opportunity to be the Giants’ No. 1 tailback for multiple seasons, starting in the second half of 2024.

Ryan Weisse - This is my second time correcting my Tracy ranking this season. I previously moved him into my Top 50 and thought that would be it for 2024. His recent play has earned him even more respect. He has outplayed Singletary at every turn, and it seemed strange to have him 15 spots behind Marshawn Lloyd and Jaylen Wright based on draft capital. Now and then, a player outplays his draft capital as a rookie, and that is precisely what Tracy is doing in 2024. Tracy is now my RB35, and I'm still determining if he's done moving up.

Andy Hicks - Tracy has looked the part of starting NFL running back, even with the return of Singletary. A trip to the concussion protocol is a significant setback. Singletary will be hard to dislodge again. Tracy does deserve a substantial uptick in rankings, but not as high as he will go with another 100-yard game.

Jordan Mason, San Francisco

Jason Wood - Mason, we hardly knew you. Mason was revelatory in Christian McCaffrey’s absence, at least for the season's first month. But things have gone awry of late, as Mason has had to leave mid-game twice due to injury. Rookie Isaac Guerendo has been effective in Mason’s place, suggesting that Mason’s early success was more about the 49ers’ scheme than his inherent talent. With McCaffrey set to return after the Week 9 bye, Mason may become more of an interesting trivia question than a consistent dynasty asset.

Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco

Andy Hicks - Next up at running back for San Francisco is fourth-round pick Guerendo. With Jordan Mason wearing down and Christian McCaffrey with an uncertain return, Guerendo becomes a hot commodity. It could be one week or the rest of the season. His value increases no matter what. With McCaffrey approaching senior citizen age for a running back, whoever starts for the 49ers is fantasy valuable, even for a short time. 

Corey Spala – Guerendo looked impressive following Mason’s aggravated shoulder injury. McCaffrey is expected to return soon; he is scheduled for simulated practice this week. His return is on the horizon. Guerendo has flashed his abilities and explosiveness, and he may help San Fransico acclimate McCaffrey back to game speed. Guerendo is currently ranked RB65 and should easily be considered ahead of the Roschon Johnson tier of running backs. Guerendo’s abilities align with San Francisco’s run scheme, and you never know when you need a spot start from the position.

Joe Mixon, Houston

Ryan Weisse- I'm not sure if I was too high on Trey Benson and Blake Corum or too low on Mixon, but it needed to be fixed because I would rather have Mixon in Dynasty right now. I decided to move Mixon up rather than the rookies down. Mixon is just 28, and Houston seems content to run their entire offense through him. He's the best running back in fantasy since coming back from his injury three weeks ago. Mixon is now a top-15 running back for me and should be safe for at least the next two seasons.

Braelon Allen, NY Jets

Corey Spala - Allen had an intriguing three-game start to the season. He totaled 27 opportunities and scored two touchdowns. This start propelled his ranking, and he found himself over running backs like Chase Brown and Tank Bigsby. There was consideration Allen would eat into Breece Hall’s workload. In the next five games, he totaled 36 opportunities and one touchdown. Hall is New York’s RB1, and Allen’s current RB29 ranking is too high for me, considering the running backs below him are 1) similar in age and 2) providing immediate production. 

Kyren Williams, LA Rams

Matthew Montgomery- We should no longer doubt the viability of Williams’ role in this offense. All offseason, no matter where you consumed content, the running theme was Blake Corum would take this job or that Williams wasn’t good enough to stave him off. This couldn't have been further from the truth. He has already surpassed 600 total yards and has ten touchdowns, and we are in Week 9, including him being on a bye week. He is, was, and will continue to be a top-three running back in the dynasty, and we should treat him as such even after this season. The best part about his value? He is only 24 years old. 

D'Andre Swift, Chicago

Matthew Montgomery- Just like everyone else, I was scared after the first three weeks of Swift’s production in Chicago. Whatever was ailing him seems to have passed and since Week 3 he has been arguably a top-five running back in all of football. Maybe it was the adjustment to a rookie signal caller or that weird feeling of being on a third team in three years, but whatever the case, it has passed. This is the version of Swift we all dreamed about this offseason, and I don’t expect this to change but rather gain more steam as rookie Caleb Williams continues to get comfortable reading defenses at the line of scrimmage. 

Dynasty Movement at Wide Receiver

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

Jason Wood - Nacua moves up only three spots, but it’s a critical tier change as he returns to the top 12 at receiver. His injury warranted a modest discount, but his triumphant return as the team’s No. 1 target—even with Cooper Kupp also back—is all we needed to elevate him to the WR1 tier. Given his age, he’s a far better bet to sustain multi-year value than his teammate, who is reportedly on the trading block.

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

Jason Wood - This summer, I previewed McConkey’s fantasy outlook. I emphasized how important it was for him to become the Chargers’ No. 1 receiver, as Greg Roman’s system has never supported two top-25 fantasy receivers simultaneously. Fortunately, McConkey has claimed the top role and is making plays regardless of the game script. Even if the Chargers never ramp up their pass rate again, McConkey should remain enough of a target funnel to be viewed as an exciting starting fantasy asset for years.

Matthew Montgomery - This will sound like a strong dose of haterade, but I am not sold that McConkey will be a receiver we see stick around for very long. Last week, he had the best game of his young career, which was exciting. My only issue is that this is genuinely the ceiling of his production. His targets stayed the same, he played a bad defense and his quarterback played the best game of the season. This offense doesn’t have many 100-yard receivers as they grow increasingly into the vision Jim Harbaugh has of a winning football team, and I think this will be a bubble inflation of McConkey’s standing in the league. Keep this in mind: it took more point production than his last three games combined for McConkey to crack the top 20…

Keon Coleman, Buffalo

Jason Wood -The Bills traded for Amari Cooper, but that shouldn’t dampen excitement for Coleman. The rookie has been targeted seven times in Cooper’s two games with Buffalo, and the veteran’s addition opens up downfield coverage in a way that should benefit Coleman. Cooper will be a free agent this summer, with no guarantee of returning, but Coleman is set to be paired with Josh Allen for at least another four seasons.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville

Ryan Weisse- This is the second time I've moved Thomas up this season, and he is now in my Top 12. Before the season, he was firmly behind Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze; now that the games are being played, Thomas is beating all three. It's clear there is a natural chemistry between Thomas and Trevor Lawrence, and that should only grow over the next couple of seasons.

Parker Washington, Jacksonville

Andy Hicks - With the receiver room in Jacksonville resembling a medical tent, an opportunity arises for second-year receiver Washington. Three catches for 46 yards isn’t marking his arrival just yet. He did have a six-catch game with a touchdown in his rookie season, and the most important thing he can ask for is in front of him. An opportunity. A preemptive rise in rankings. 

Josh Downs, Indianapolis

Ryan Weisse- I'm not trying the victory lap of Richardson getting benched, but this bump for Downs is directly tied to it. Yes, he is a better receiver with Joe Flacco on the field, but Flacco will be around for a while. Instead, I like that the Colts show they are willing to move. Downs is excellent and even scored two touchdowns with Richardson this week. Once the Colts figure out their quarterback situation, you will want Downs. Get him now while he is cheaper. He is one of Dynasty's top 35 receivers, so I will rank him that way.

Corey Spala – Downs has had over 60 yards in 67% of games this season and has a touchdown in 50%. He is coming off a Week 8 game where he led the NFL in separation score and 35% route win rate. Flacco will now be the starting quarterback, and their connection is undeniable. Downs was WR5 when Flacco began Weeks 4-6 with 19.2 points per game. His outlook is bright with competent quarterback play.

Cedric Tillman, Cleveland

Andy Hicks - Sometimes, backup quarterbacks click with a wide receiver down the depth chart. Such is the case for Tillman, Winston, and the Cleveland Browns. Following Cooper's trade and the disappointing play of Jerry Jeudy, an opportunity arose for second-year receiver Tillman. He was drafted in the third round last year and is good-sized. A seven catches for 99 yards with two touchdowns is a statement game—a big jump in rankings. 

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee

Andy Hicks - With a derailed career, Ridley is surprisingly approaching 30 years of age. His 10-catch game against the Lions comes following the trade of DeAndre Hopkins, and Ridley, by necessity, has to be the guy. He does get a significant bump in rankings, but it would be surprising if he can continue this level of performance despite being capable of it. 

John Metchie III / Xavier Hutchinson, Houston

Andy Hicks - The loss of Stefon Diggs for the season, the absence of Nico Collins, and the slow start by Tank Dell all present opportunities down the Houston depth chart. Metchie, due to his difficult NFL career to date, maybe the known name. As a second-round draft pick, he would be expected to deliver. Hutchinson is the guy I would prefer to target, though. He looks like he belongs on an NFL field. He was a standout in training camp and more likely to be fantasy-viable. Both get a rank jump, but Hutchinson gets the more significant push. 

George Pickens, Pittsburgh

Corey Spala – Pickens has flashed his skillset with Rusell Wilson under center. He has had nine receptions for 185 yards and one touchdown over the last two weeks, and we cannot forget his one-foot-double tap end zone reception that did not count. Pickens is Pittsburgh’s WR1, and we see why he was once considered a higher-ranked dynasty asset with competent quarterback play.

Diontae Johnson, Baltimore

Matthew Montgomery- This couldn’t have been a worse outcome for not only Johnson but the entirety of the Baltimore pass catchers. Are we even sure Lamar Jackson, as a passer, can support three options for fantasy viability? We know that the tight end of the week will get some play, but outside of that, I no longer believe there are safe options on this receiving corps. In the NFL, this move is a slam dunk, but for fantasy managers, this hurts pretty much all options for the Ravens in the passing game outside of Lamar Jackson

Dynasty Movement at Tight End

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta

Jason Wood - Quite a few tight ends have rosier outlooks today than they did two weeks ago. It’s a good reminder of how frustratingly small the sample sizes are for NFL players and how we must try not to overreact, even a month into the season. Pitts never dropped out of the Top 8 in my rankings, but he now moves up a few spots into the Top 5. Given his age, athletic profile, and upside, he was only discounted by the annoying lack of consistent targets. That’s changing now, and I don’t foresee a decrease.

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay

Jason Wood - Otton benefits from his teammates’ injuries, but that doesn’t mean we should overlook the increased opportunity. In the long term, he still profiles as a potential touchdown-dependent asset, so he doesn’t warrant a top-15 ranking. However, his age and recent productivity rank him ahead of older veterans who play similar roles.

Corey Spala – Over the last two weeks, Otton has had 17 receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns. Certainly, having Chris Godwin and Mike Evans not playing will influence his scoring. It is still vital for Otton to rise to the occasion and for the coaching staff to trust him. Otton lacks the athleticism to propel him into a tight end in the top dynasty. He does have the proven ability to be a trust pass-catching tight end and should be considered over similar skillset tight ends ahead of him in rankings.

Matthew Montgomery- We need to start putting some respect on Otton’s name! He has been a dynamic player this season and is arguably Baker Mayfield’s favorite target. One thing is for sure: he is the healthiest option in the passing game right now, and we should fully expect him to be peppered with a high volume of targets as we begin the push to the fantasy playoffs. Since Week 3, he has had just one game outside the top 9 in his position. This season is a real indicator of his potential in all formats, specifically Dynasty. 

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay

Ryan Weisse- The more I watch Kraft play, the more I like him. He makes tough catches and has caught Jordan Love's eye. Even with all the great receivers in Green Bay, it would be tough to say Kraft isn't the number-two option behind whichever receiver steps up that week. Kraft has taken over this job for good, but it remains to be seen if they will let Luke Musgrave try to earn a meaningful role once he comes off IR. I'm moving Kraft to my Top 10; he can grow at 23.

Grant Calcaterra, Philadelphia

Andy Hicks - With the absence of Dallas Goedert, third-year tight end Calcaterra is getting an opportunity to showcase his skills. He had nine catches in his first two seasons. This year, he has already exceeded that total with 14 catches—eight in the last three weeks. Goedert will return, but the team knows it can rely on Calcaterra—a solid bump. 

Noah Fant, Seattle

Corey Spala – A once coveted dynasty tight end with elite athleticism has wilted in expectations given his production. Fant has averaged 4.0 targets per game this season. He has 60 yards in 38% of games. Interestingly, he has not scored a touchdown since the 2022 season. He has consistently produced with his opportunities; I believe the scheme holds him back. This is a good thing! He has accepted his role and helps his NFL team more. Fant’s points per game (6.9) is similar to Pat Freiermuth's (7.8), ranked nine spots ahead. He is only 26 years old, and I see no reason why he should be ranked below Luke Musgrave, Michael Mayer, and Chigoziem Okonkwo. I believe Fant has proven his ability to play at the NFL level. His situation may change in the 2025 (or 2026) season, and his outlook may benefit, too.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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