Dynasty Movement: Week 6

Jeff Bell moderates a panel of Footballguys staffers including Ryan Weisse, Dan Hindery, Corey Spala, Hutchinson Brown, and Matt Montgomery, while they discuss their biggest movers in Dynasty rankings.

Jeff Bell's Dynasty Movement: Week 6 Jeff Bell Published 10/10/2024

© Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Dynasty staff gathered to work through multiple quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are the biggest risers or fallers in rankings through five weeks of action. For more Dynasty content, check out the Footballguys Dynasty Football show with Jagger May and myself. We do three episodes weekly, discussing a variety of relevant Dynasty trends.

Dynasty Movement at Quarterback

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay

Ryan Weisse - As the season kicked off, I needed more time to put much faith in Mayfield, even after a great 2023. The loss of Dave Canales and yet another new offense worried me that he might regress. Instead, he is the overall QB3 after five weeks and looks like the Buccaneers franchise quarterback for the next three or four seasons. I moved him up to the Top 16, but at 29, there is little room for growth. He is the ideal QB2 in Superflex.

Bo Nix, Denver 

Zareh Kantzabedian - In Week 5, Bo Nix had his best game of the season, and it came on a win against division rivals, Las Vegas Raiders. Statistically, Nix has been steadily improving. In week 5, he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt (season-high), was top nine in completion percentage (70 percent), and was a top 10 passer versus the blitz.

For fantasy purposes, Nix was the QB8 in Week 5 despite being 24th in pass attempts. Nix has been active as a runner, averaging six rush attempts per game. In week 5, he had five attempts for 35 yards and one touchdown. He has three rushing touchdowns so far. He has one less than Jayden Daniels on 26 fewer rush attempts. His rushing volume should persist as he develops, shaping him as a viable QB2.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis

Corey Spala - Anthony Richardson’s struggles as a passer are a concern. Joe Flacco has succeeded in the last two weeks in Richardson’s absence, completing 70% of passing attempts. Richardson has the second-worst passer rating this season (Flacco has the best). We fall in love with the Konami code quarterbacks but need a realistic outlook on their potential for years to come. It will need to be noted when a quarterback struggles as a passer. I was surprised to see Richardson currently ranked as our QB14; the adjustment seems ongoing. 

Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City

Matt Montgomery - This may sound like a broken record, but we can almost universally agree that Mahomes may be the most talented quarterback we have ever seen. I think we are seeing people struggle to trust him mainly because the Chiefs don’t take September seriously enough for him to lock in. I believe he is beginning to do so. HE has faced back-to-0back top 5 defenses against fantasy quarterbacks and has 576 yards passing, 34 yards rushing, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Yes, the TD/INT rate is concerning, but I don’t believe this is a long-term issue, and we will see this corrected after the team’s week six bye. 

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati

Dan Hindery - Joe Burrow is known for being a slow starter, which makes his hot start this season (currently QB5) even more impressive. He’s far ahead of his usual pace from previous years. Over the past three weeks, Burrow has reached a new level, averaging 25.1 fantasy PPG. During this stretch, he’s completing 75% of his passes, averaging 316 yards and 3.3 touchdowns per game. Given the talent of the Bengals' offense and the likely game scripts they'll face—due to one of the league's worst defenses—this level of performance (or close to it) feels sustainable for the rest of the season.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland

Dan Hindery - Deshaun Watson may have only one or two more weeks as the starting quarterback in Cleveland, and it's unlikely he'll get another starting opportunity elsewhere anytime soon. His advanced stats are historically bad, averaging around -0.3 EPA per dropback and a success rate well below 40%, the worst in the NFL. Watson’s EPA per pass play (-0.302) ranks 618th out of 621 quarterbacks who started the first five games of a season since 2000. I didn’t think his value could drop any lower, but I was wrong.

Andy Dalton, Carolina 

Hutchinson Brown - Andy Dalton had a miraculous first week against the Las Vegas Raiders in week three with 319 passing yards and three touchdowns. His team scored 36 points and won, and Dalton also gave Diontae Johnson a massive breakout game with 122 yards and a score. He seemed to breathe life into the Carolina Panthers offense, and fantasy managers were excited about him.

However, since then, it has been different. His completion rate has gone down almost eight percent, he’s thrown for 220 and 136 passing yards, and the Panthers are now sitting at 0-2 over the last two games. Based on what we've seen, it doesn't look like things will improve for Dalton but only stay poor and potentially worsen.

Most dynasty managers view Dalton as a solid starting quarterback who could help a quarterback-needy team, especially after what he did in his first game. Based on what I've seen, you could get a starting lineup-caliber asset. If the Panthers continue to lose and Dalton continues to struggle more and more like he has as of late, Bryce Young is still an option Carolina could turn to. At this point, it feels like Dalton is a fragile and descending dynasty asset. Get the value for him while you still can.

Justin Fields, Pittsburgh 

Hutchinson Brown - Fields have been fun in fantasy football, finishing in the top twelve at the position in two of the last three weeks. However, his job is very at risk, and it doesn’t seem like too many fantasy managers are paying attention.

Fields has lots of potential as a player, but the Steelers want to win now. The Steelers started 3-0 but have lost their last two games and have only hit 21 points in one game this year. Their next two games with the Jets and the Raiders could go either way.

Russell Wilson has finally participated in a full practice; his calf is fully healed and ready for action. He is breathing down Fields’ neck weekly, waiting for another loss or a big mistake.

Fields still has a lot of value to fantasy managers due to his rushing upside; I would sell that hard and see what you can get. 

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Dynasty Movement at Running Back

Tyrone Tracy Jr., NY Giants

Ryan Weisse - I was a big fan of Tracy and the Giants' landing spot, but you must exercise caution with Day 3 picks. I drafted him most of my fifth-round rookie picks this season. He is a converted wide receiver, and I hoped he could land a third-down role at some point this year. He only caught one ball in his first start but rushed for 129 yards, more than any other back in Week 5. It was just one game, but he looked far better than Devin Singletary has this season, and he should have earned a more significant role in this Giants offense. He's still a late-round pick and could easily be replaced next season, but he is in my Top 50 for dynasty running backs.

Corey Spala - Tyrone Tracy Jr. started his first game as Devin Singeltary missed Week 5. Tracy ran for 129 yards on 18 carries.  Tracy is the first rookie running back to have the most yards in one week, dating back to Week 9 of last season. He shined in his expanded role, and it would be a disservice not to continue to utilize his skillset upon Singeltary’s return. Tracy is currently ranked as our RB64. I would be comfortable with him over running backs like Jaleel McLaughlin (RB53) and Zamir White (RB44).

Dan Hindery - The Giants may have found a gem in the fifth round of the 2024 draft with Tracy. While he’s an older prospect (he turns 25 next month), he’s still relatively new to the running back position. Tracy spent most of his college career as a wide receiver at Iowa before transitioning to running back at Purdue. In his first NFL start, he was impressed with 18 carries for 129 yards, showing that he belongs at the NFL level as a runner. His background as a wide receiver suggests there’s also untapped potential as a pass catcher. With Devin Singletary signing a 3-year deal with the Giants, this will likely remain a committee. It’s wise not to be overly aggressive in raising Tracy’s dynasty value, but he’s certainly on the radar as an intriguing upside-back. At the very least, we now know he has significant potential whenever Singletary is sidelined.

Devin Singletary, NY Giants

Hutchinson Brown - Devin Singletary started the season as the lead back for the Giants. In his first games before injury, he was over an 85% rush share and was over two targets per game. His overall efficiency was on and off, but for fantasy, he delivered. 

My confidence in Singletary was never that high due to Tyrone Tracy Jr. in the backfield, but it has gotten to an all-time low due to how well Tracy played in his absence. He had over 120 yards on the ground, with four different runs of 10 or more yards. He looked phenomenal on tape, and the coaching staff has talked highly of him ever since.

I am not saying there is an RB1 controversy in New York, but I am also not saying there isn’t. Once Singletary returns, I’d try to sell his previous volume numbers and get a second-round pick from somebody. 

Jaylen Wright, Miami

Zareh Kantzabedian - Wright stepped up for the Dolphins after De'Von Achane was ruled out with a concussion late in the first quarter. Raheem Mostert led Miami in total rush attempts, but Wright (on six fewer carries) outperformed Mostert in every rushing metric in week 5.

Wright is now the RB3 above Jeff Wilson Jr., and he at least put some heat on Mostert as the early down runner. Expect to see Wright become more involved as the season progresses. Mostert (and Achane) have a lengthy injury history. Mostert has already missed a few games this year. Additionally, Tua is expected to return, raising the floor for the offense.   

Blake Corum, LA Rams

Zareh Kantzabedian - Blake Corum played meaningful snaps last Sunday, and we should all pay attention. Corum only had five rush attempts in week 5, so there is no real point in examining the metrics on such a small sample size. Corum's film, however, speaks true to the prospect we saw at Michigan.

His presence as a runner wasn't a fluke or a result of the Rams getting blown out. Ronnie Rivers, the Rams' once-primary RB2, was wholly relegated to special teams in week 5. He did not receive a single carry. Corum has established himself as the Rams' primary RB2 and looked good with his touches. Continue to hold with fervor.   

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville

Corey Spala - Tank Bigsby has shined in year two and ranks first in rush yards over expectation per attempt this season. He has 34 rushing attempts for 273 yards; he leads the NFL in yards per attempt (8.03). Bigsby has developed and is cementing himself as an essential piece in the Jacksonville offense. Bigsby is currently ranked as RB47. I would feel comfortable having him ranked ahead of MarShawn Lloyd (RB35), and we can start the argument within the Braelon Allen (RB31) and Blake Corum (RB32) grouping.

Ryan Weisse - Putting it bluntly, I was far too low on Bigsby after his disappointing rookie season. He wasn't even in my Top 50, and this week needed a big correction. After two excellent weeks, it's clear the Bigsby has earned a timeshare with Travis Etienne Jr. at the very least. More importantly, Bigsby is handling more carries and finding the endzone. Bigsby is two years younger than Etienne and could earn more and more work as the season progresses. I moved Bigsby up to my Top 30.

Tank Bigsby & Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville

Matt Montgomery—Fans of Travis Etienne Jr., close your eyes! Bigsby has finally out-snapped Etienne, and in that game, he rushed for 101 yards and had a 28-yard catch. The writing is on the wall here. We are seeing a job change, and if I am an Etienne owner, I am looking to move him for nearly anything because the volume is going to start to fade. 

Meanwhile, if I were a Bigsby manager, I would ride this hype train to the moon! He’s 23 years old, and he shows us an explosiveness that Etienne simply doesn’t have. He is a lone bright spot in an otherwise dark and dreary Jacksonville Jaguars organization. 

D'Andre Swift, Chicago

Dan Hindery - Before Week 4, there were reports that the Bears were planning to feature Roschon Johnson at running back and shift D'Andre Swift, who had started relatively slow, into more of a supporting role. We may never know whether that reporting was inaccurate or plans simply changed. We know that Swift’s production has skyrocketed over the last two weeks. He’s averaged 23 touches and 24.8 fantasy PPG during that span, and his lead role now looks secure. Additionally, the Bears' offense has taken a major leap forward, with Caleb Williams emerging as the kind of star quarterback capable of elevating those around him. As a result, Swift's stock is firmly back on the rise. 

Dynasty Movement at Wide Receiver

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville

Ryan Weisse - Thomas has gotten better every single week. Last year, while Christian Kirk had a good season, it was clear Calvin Ridley was Trevor Lawrence's go-to receiver. With Ridley gone, Brian Thomas Jr. is filling that role, exactly as the Jaguars planned when they drafted him. Thomas is on a different level than Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers, but he could be soon. Now might be your best and last chance to acquire him in the dynasty. I moved him to WR17, and I could see a top-10 ranking in his future.

Corey Spala - I will keep advocating for Thomas to rise to the ranks when he tells me I should stop. I see no reason he should not be ranked as a dynasty WR1. He currently has the sixth-most receiving yards on the 29thmost targets. Thomas leads rookies in yards per route run (2.8) and is 14th overall in first downs per route run. He is our current WR15 and should rise in the rankings. I would rank him over fellow rookie Rome Odunze (WR13) and Chris Olave (WR10).

Dan Hindery - Brian Thomas Jr. has emerged as a Top 10 fantasy wide receiver through the first five weeks. After starting the season with just four targets in his first two games, he’s seen at least eight in his last three outings. Initially viewed as a raw big-play threat with limited versatility, Thomas has proven himself to be a much more complete player, excelling across various route concepts. With Trevor Lawrence bouncing back in Week 5 (28-of-34 for 371 yards), Thomas’ ceiling is sky-high as the clear top target in the Jaguars' offense—especially if Lawrence continues to regain form.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami

Ryan Weisse - As long as Tyreek Hill is in town, Waddle's value is capped. On the dynasty teams where I have him, I rarely want to start him, and there is no trade value. On teams where I don't have him, I never look at my roster and think I should go out and get him. I moved him to WR25, as basically the top WR3 in dynasty, but even that feels too high. Maybe I'm overreacting to a bad Miami offense, but I want nothing to do with Waddle right now.

Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis 

Zareh Kantzabedian - Ughhh. This wasn’t part of the plan, guys. Adonai Mitchell was supposed to beat Alec Pierce outright in training camp. But as practical as it is, the veteran difference will forever be a thorn in the side of dynasty managers.

Pierce is comparable to my 2005 Toyota Corolla. I don't want to drive it anymore, but it's fully paid off and hasn't had any major problems. He's producing, but nobody wants to roster him in dynasty. Mitchell has looked good with his limited reps. His time will come, but it's in the distant future for the time being.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis

Corey Spala - Josh Downs played his first game in Week 3 and has accumulated 26 targets. He has been targeted at 35.1% of routes run and 2.34 yards per route run. Over the last two weeks, Downs has had the third most receptions and most receiving first downs. Unfortunately, we have seen a difference playing with Joe Flacco under center compared to Anthony Richardson. Downs has the talent and is emerging as a top slot-wide receiver.

Jalen Tolbert, Dallas 

Zareh Kantzabedian - Brandin Cooks will not get the WR2 role back when he returns from IR. During the first week, he was asked to fill in for Cooks, and Tolbert immediately took advantage of this opportunity. He garnered ten targets and scored the game-winning touchdown in a hostile environment.

Tolbert was the WR12 for the week, and while he's rarely going to outproduce CeeDee Lamb going forward, Tolbert has finally arrived for many dynasty managers who chose to keep the faith over the past couple of years. He's now locked in as the Cowboys' primary outside wide receiver and is a solid WR3 for dynasty managers. 

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati

Matt Montgomery - While the vibes may be low in Cincinnati this season if you were brave enough to stick to your guns with Chase despite the noisy preseason, you have been rewarded handsomely through five weeks. He currently sits at the WR1 spot in PPR formats and may be the best receiver in the NFL. Burrow's being healthy is showing us that he can and will pepper Chase not only with a high number of targets but also with opportunities down the field, resulting in some big plays. Chase is good you knew that already; I assure you he will remain that way for many, many years. 

Jauan Jennings, San Francisco

Matt Montgomery - It was fun while it lasted, wasn’t it? Jennings showed us that when he can stand out, he can and will produce, but those opportunities will fade away for the time being with the return of the 49ers offense from injury. At one point, the team was down McCaffery, Kittle, and Deebo, which resulted in the ultimate Jennings game in Week 3. Unfortunately, this may be the last one we have seen for a while, and Jennings should be safely on your bench. The 49ers aren’t a team with good luck with injuries, so don’t be surprised if you see him as a riser for me in the next few weeks, though!  

Chris Olave, New Orleans

Dan Hindery - It's only Year 3 for Chris Olave, and while he already has two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, it’s hard not to want more. A true third-year breakout where Olave emerges as an NFL star feels like a long shot at this point. He sits at WR32 after five weeks and has been fine, but nothing about his fantasy performance has been particularly special or impactful. As the season progresses, the chances of a major breakout seem to diminish. Adding to the concern, Derek Carr is expected to miss multiple weeks due to injury. We’re already seeing Olave being leap-frogged by other young receivers like Brian Thomas Jr., and if he finishes 2024 with worse stats than 2023 (as he is on pace to do), his value could drop even further.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati

Dan Hindery - Tee Higgins missed the first two weeks of the season with a hamstring injury, sparking familiar concerns about his inability to stay healthy in the dynasty community. However, his production has surged since his return. Over the past two weeks, he has seen 24 targets and is coming off an impressive performance against the Ravens, with nine catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns. With the Bengals’ passing offense expected to be one of the most prolific in the NFL this season, Higgins is a rock-solid WR2 for the rest of 2024. At just 25 years old and heading into free agency next March, Higgins is poised to have his pick of landing spots, further solidifying his strong long-term outlook.

Ja'Lynn Polk, New England 

Hutchinson Brown - As a second-round NFL Draft pick, Polk flashed in the preseason with a few great plays. He’s also led all Patriots in targets for the last two weeks with 13. The opportunity exists, but the offensive line and quarterback play have kept him from making many of those targets.

While the offensive line will remain a problem, the quarterback situation could be significantly improved. While Drake Maye could struggle in moments, flashes of the connection Maye and Polk could have would skyrocket their value. I suggest buying in now before people get too excited. I just made a trade in one of my main dynasty leagues, sending two 2025 third-round rookie picks for him. That’s a great value to me for a second-round draft pick at wide receiver with a new, potential star quarterback coming in.

Dynasty Movement at Tight End

Erick All Jr., Cincinnati

Ryan Weisse - While the Bengals have put a great group of wide receivers around Joe Burrow, they have yet to invest much at tight end. Instead, they seem fine with streaming cast-off tight ends like a fantasy manager. Last year, it was Irv Smith, and this year, they brought in Mike Gesicki. It looked like Gesicki would be viable for a couple of weeks, but then rookie Erick All Jr. got on the field. All, a fourth-round pick, caught four balls in his first three games. He has yet to explode, but that has also kept his price down in dynasty. He's moved up into my Top 25 and could move up a lot further if he earns Burrow's trust.

Corey Spala - I will continue conducting the Erick All Jr. train in this series as long as possible. His box-score stats are not shining, which has kept him tiptoeing in the shadows. It is important to note he sustained an ACL injury in November 2023. I am not a doctor, but there is a chance Cincinnati had the first five weeks planned out for their rookie tight end, a slow progression to meaningful opportunities throughout the season. All is our current TE33 and should rise in the rankings. I would have no problem ranking him over Jonnu Smith (TE29), Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE23), and Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE22). 

Theo Johnson, NY Giants

Zareh Kantzabedian - Theo Johnson caught all five of his targets for 45 yards in what I consider a breakout game for the rookie tight end. Malik Nabers was absent for this game, so everybody was asked to step up on offense as they were massive underdogs on the road at Seattle.

The team coalesced around Brian Daboll and won despite unfavorable odds. Johnson was instrumental in helping the Giants earn this victory and has indeed entered Daboll's good graces. We should expect Johnson’s volume to decline when Nabors returns, but it’s a positive development and a signal of promise under Daboll.

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay

Corey Spala - A new dynasty tight end has emerged. Tucker Kraft is currently ranked as the overall TE2 and TE4 in points per game. I am happy Kraft is emerging and getting the recognition he deserves. Injuries have propelled Kraft to find meaningful opportunities; he has 141 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks. He is currently our TE17, and I would have no problem ranking him over Cole Kmet (TE15) and Isaiah Likely (TE14). 

Dan Hindery - With the lack of fantasy production at the tight end position leaving dynasty managers desperate for any impact, Tucker Kraft's two-week average of 5.0 catches for 70.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game has been a welcome relief—like an oasis in the middle of a desert. Beyond just the numbers, Kraft increasingly looks like a true impact fantasy tight end. His run-after-the-catch ability, especially at 259 pounds, is remarkable. If he continues on this trajectory, Kraft will soon be in the same conversation as fellow 2023 rookie tight ends Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid.

Trey McBride, Arizona

Matt Montgomery - There was a little dip in price this offseason for McBride with the drafting of Marvin Harrison Jr. due to the unknown of whether the Cardinals' offense could support more weapons and whether McBride was volume-dependent. We see that McBride is just fine through this point of the season! He’s seeing 6+ targets a game, and outside of the injury that kept him out of Week 4, he has been one of the few consistent options in the position this season. McBride is a slam dunk starter the rest of the season and moving forward, barring a major change on the team. 

 

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