Dynasty Movement: Week 5

Jeff Bell moderates a panel of Footballguys staffers including Andy Hicks, Ryan Weisse, Jason Wood, Dan Hindery, Corey Spala, and Matt Montgomery, while they discuss their biggest movers in Dynasty rankings.

Jeff Bell's Dynasty Movement: Week 5 Jeff Bell Published 10/03/2024

© Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Dynasty staff gathered to work through multiple quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are the biggest risers or fallers in rankings through four weeks of action. For more Dynasty content, check out the Footballguys Dynasty Football show with Jagger May and myself. We do three episodes weekly, discussing a variety of relevant Dynasty trends.

Dynasty Movement at Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City

Ryan Weisse - While I have been struggling with Mahomes on my actual dynasty rosters, I had, to this point, refused to move him from my top spot. That needed to change. Mahomes is still a great quarterback but is fighting to be average for fantasy purposes. His turnovers have hurt over the last few seasons, but in 2021 and 2022, his touchdowns made up for that flaw. Last year and through four games of 2024, he's not hitting those two touchdowns per game we were used to, and he does not feel like a difference-maker. He didn't fall far, but I had to move him to QB6.

Dan Hindery - Mahomes is currently the QB18, averaging just 14.1 fantasy points per game after four weeks. This continues a trend of declining fantasy production, as he finished QB12  last season (17.9 PPG). Passing production is down across the NFL. It is hard to get excited about any quarterback not putting up numbers with their legs – even a passer as gifted as Mahomes. With injuries to Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown, hopes of a monster fantasy season for Mahomes are likely dashed. More importantly, the Kansas City offense has shifted away from its explosive early years, as the defense now dominates, allowing fewer than 18 points per game over the last 20+ games. As a result, the Chiefs' blueprint now includes a more balanced and conservative offensive approach. While Mahomes remains a top dynasty asset for long-term fantasy usefulness, we have entered a phase where his elite, week-winning upside is less frequently seen.

Justin Fields, Chicago

Dan Hindery - Justin Fields is the fantasy QB6 and seems poised to remain the Steelers' starting quarterback. Among quarterbacks with 50-plus pass attempts this season, he ranks 7th in completion percentage (70.6%) and boasts one of the NFL's lowest interception rates (0.98%). Fields is playing winning football in an offensive system tailored to his strengths, setting him up for continued success.

Corey Spala - A change of scenery may be what it takes for a talent to flourish. Justin Fields has had six total touchdowns (two turnovers) in four games in Pittsburgh. He is seventh in completion percentage and 12th in passer rating. Fields is currently ranked as our QB20 and should be moving up. I would take Fields over Trevor Lawrence (QB15).

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville

Corey Spala - Jacksonville is the only undefeated team in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence has the second-worst completion percentage and third-highest bad throw percentage. It is time for the conversation regarding his dynasty outlook, which may be overdue. Lawrence is our current dynasty QB15. I would comfortably take Baker Mayfield (QB18) and Justin Fields (QB20) over Lawrence; Drake Maye (QB16) is a feasible pivot, too.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati

Matt Montgomery - It is easy to forget just how dominant a player Joe Burrow has been in the games and fantasy football. The injuries will always concern him, but this gives him unique value. Due to the hesitancy, we will have to draft or acquire him, and he will never have the expensive value that players of his caliber will have. Burrow is a buy-now player. You must live with the results of his health, but you can't be scared to go all in for him. 

Kyler Murray, Arizona

Matt Montgomery - We all knew the type of player Kyler was pre-injuries, but just like with Burrow, it's about stomaching the risk associated with him. He was a #1 pick in two sports for crying out loud! The talent is showing through the screen, and as this young core around him grows and develops, we will also see the stats and his gameplay reflect that same growth. Rushing upside is an edge at QB, and because of this, he will always have standalone value regardless of the weapons around him, which is effective.

Jayden Daniels, Washington

Jason Wood - Daniels moves into my top 10 and surpasses Caleb Williams among rookie quarterbacks. While overreacting to a few weeks can be risky, Daniels is off to such a strong start that, similar to C.J. Stroud last year, the more significant risk would be undervaluing him while there's still a slim chance of acquiring him before he becomes a long-term roster lock. We expected Daniels' rushing ability to make him an immediate fantasy asset. Still, no one predicted an 82% completion rate in the first month, especially considering the team's top receivers are Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz. Daniels' 82% completion rate over his first four games is an NFL record for any four-game streak by any quarterback. Let that sink in—he did it as a rookie.

Andy Hicks - I typically rank first-round rookie quarterbacks cautiously. Only one-third of them over the last ten years are true franchise changers. One-third would be gap fillers who do enough to have a career in the NFL. One-third are total busts that cost people their jobs and set franchises back for half a decade. Then we have someone like Jayden Daniels, who has exceeded the performance of any rookie quarterback to date. Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III are the measuring sticks for fantasy success for a rookie quarterback, and Daniels is on pace to smash their performances. Guys like Andrew Luck and C.J. Stroud are a class above, but fantasy success was moderate in the first season. Daniels deserves to move up to near the top. This isn’t a fluke. He looks like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen but ahead of their developments. 

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis

Andy Hicks - Unlike Jayden Daniels, who is all that was promised and more, Anthony Richardson doesn’t finish games as often as he does. He is careless with his body, and development is still an ongoing issue. Everything has been put in place for him to succeed in the NFL, unlike many high first-round quarterbacks. Colts fans are starting to feel uneasy, and fantasy managers cannot trust him. Neither can I.

Jason Wood - We tend to be more reactive with players we weren't initially confident in, so I'm moving Richardson down from the top 10 to the lower end of the QB2 tier. His potential is undeniable, but it's hard to envision it coming to fruition based on what we've seen. He's completing just 50% of his passes in an era when nearly every starting quarterback is completing at least 65%. Additionally, it seems he gets injured almost every time he runs with the ball. Watching the Colts' offense thrive under Joe Flacco says it all—Richardson needs significant improvement to justify his consensus ranking.

Dynasty Movement at Tight End

Jake Ferguson, Dallas

Jason Wood - Jake Ferguson is not only one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL but also the de facto No. 2 receiver behind CeeDee Lamb in the Cowboys' prolific passing attack. Given his age, the salary cap situation in Dallas, and the team's offensive structure, Ferguson should be an every-week fantasy starter for years to come.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota

Dan Hindery - Hockenson is back in my Top 5 at the position, with a real shot to re-emerge as a top-3 dynasty option if he proves he’s fully healthy. Interestingly, he's rising in the rankings without even taking the field, largely because players like Kyle Pitts and Mark Andrews, who were ranked above him, have struggled this season. The tight end position has been a fantasy wasteland this year—only George Kittle and Dallas Goedert are averaging more than 11 fantasy points per game, and the TE12 is scoring 7.5 PPG. Hockenson averaged 14.7 fantasy PPG last season. If he can produce at a similar level in 2024, he will provide a gigantic weekly edge in the position. Moreover, the concern that Sam Darnold would limit the Vikings' offensive upside has proven false. Darnold currently leads the NFL in touchdown passes, and the Vikings' passing attack is among the league’s best, setting Hockenson up to be a difference-maker by the time the fantasy playoffs kick off.

Erick All Jr., Cincinnati Bengals

Corey Spala - A young tight end flourishing on limited opportunities. Despite playing 43% of snaps, All ranks first in targets per route run and fourth in yards per route run among tight ends. The future appears bright for Cincinnati’s rookie. All is our current TE35, and his start to the season should propel him up the rankings. I would comfortably have him over Luke Musgrave (TE24), Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE22), and Ben Sinnott (TE19).

Jason Wood - Erick All Jr. wasn't on my radar during the pre-draft and post-draft processes. However, less than a year has passed since a torn ACL. All is already making plays with limited opportunities for the Bengals. If he continues progressing, Mike Gesicki will hardly be a long-term threat to his playing time.

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas

Matt Montgomery - Bowers may be the best tight end in fantasy football. We thought he had the talent to do so coming out of college, but with the positional apocalypse we are seeing from the tight end, it may have happened in just four games. He has everything you want from a tight end. He's a top-two option for his team, a receiving specialist with minimal blocking assignments, and he’s shown us that he also may be quarterback-proof, seeing as how he hasn’t ever played with a superstar quarterback. 

Mark Andrews, Baltimore

Matt Montgomery - This is the worst-case scenario for managers who invest in high draft or trade capital. There isn’t any way to spin this positively. He’s not getting targeted, he’s barely running routes, and the Ravens aren’t playing bad football, leading me to believe this isn’t exactly something that will change. The vibes are low here, and dare I say; they could even get lower…

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay

Andy Hicks - After a dismal start to the 2024 season with a combined one catch for five yards over his first two games, Cade Otton has rebounded with 13 receptions in his next two. Otton's opportunities are limited, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as excellent red-zone receivers. At his best, though, he projects as a bottom-end TE1. About to enter his career peak, you can do worse than stash him away on your roster for that progression in his development. He is unchallenged as the starter in Tampa and can only improve as Baker Mayfield looks to him more often. 

Luke Musgrave, Green Bay

Ryan Weisse - After four weeks, it's clear that Musgrave is behind Tucker Kraft in the tight end pecking order. Both were rookies last year, and while Musgrave had better volume, Kraft was more efficient. Clearly, the coaches took notice, and now Kraft is seeing the volume to go along with his better play. While I only moved Kraft to TE15, I moved Musgrave down to TE27, which makes him droppable in all but the deepest dynasty leagues.

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Dynasty Movement at Running Back

Kyren Williams, LA Rams

Dan Hindery - Williams is back in my top 6 at the position. He has played at least 79% of the snaps in every game this year, including two games with over 90%. That level of playing time puts him in rare company among NFL running backs in 2024. Even the players above him in dynasty rankings aren't seeing as much action. Jahmyr Gibbs has maxed out at 62% of snaps, while Bijan Robinson has topped 80% in two games but played just 64% last week. Breece Hall's playing time has dropped each week, hitting 69% in his previous outing. And while there were concerns about Blake Corum, he hasn't taken a single offensive snap in the three competitive games the Rams have played. There's a lingering bias against Williams due to his lack of draft capital, but the further we get from draft day, the less that matters.

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina

Dan Hindery - We often overvalue the promise of future production while underestimating the importance of a short-term solution at running back. Hubbard has been practically free in most leagues because Jonathan Brooks is expected to take over the backfield eventually. That might happen soon, but there's no sign that Brooks’ return is imminent. This situation is starting to resemble Jameson Williams’ saga from two years ago. It makes sense to enjoy Hubbard’s production while we can. Since Andy Dalton took over, Hubbard has averaged 145 yards, 4.5 catches, and 1.0 touchdowns per game (25.0 PPG). He's also making a solid case for the rest of the league that he can be a starting-caliber back.

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco

Jason Wood - McCaffrey's recent months have been incredibly frustrating. In redraft leagues, he's already shaping up to be one of the most disappointing first-round picks in recent memory. As the consensus 1.01, many league managers are now facing an uphill battle, with McCaffrey's best-case return being sometime in November. Dynasty managers have an even more challenging decision: if McCaffrey returns in November and plays at his usual level, there's a rare, month-long opportunity to acquire him at a significant discount. However, if this injury marks the beginning of the end for him, the window to sell is closing, and selling at a reduced value now might be the best move. I've generally been optimistic about buying low. Still, with the latest news that he's dealing with Achilles tendinitis in both legs, it's time to discount him several tiers and no longer view him as the centerpiece of your lineup.

Corey Spala - I am uncomfortable having Christian McCaffrey as a top-12 dynasty running back. It was noted that he has bilateral Achilles tendinitis. I nominated him last week, but the recent news does not help. He is our current RB10 and should be moving down the ranks. It is a harsh reality, I have him on a handful of dynasty teams, but his future outlook is in question. There is no timeline to return this year; they believe it will be a “couple of months.” I would comfortably have Alvin Kamara (RB16) over McCaffrey. Joe Mixon (RB19) and Tony Pollard (RB20) may be options when considering the running back production needed; if you have McCaffrey, you are likely a contender.  

Ryan Weisse - I tend to rank older running backs higher than most. I play dynasty in a win-now mode and have no issue adding an aging back to secure a championship. I kept McCaffrey in my top five for this very reason. However, Father Time is undefeated, and injuries are hitting McCaffrey hard. Achilles tendonitis in one ankle is concerning. McCaffrey has it in both and travels to new continents for treatment advice. The sell window has slammed shut, and McCaffrey moved down to RB14, but I suspect it won't be the last move.

Braelon Allen, NY Jets

Ryan Weisse - I loved Allen coming out of college, but landing with the Jets worried me. I had him outside of my top 30 with the expectation that I'd move him up after he saw more playing over the next few seasons. Instead, the Jets are already playing him in a complementary role to Breece Hall, and he's playing very well. He's only 20 years old and could be a featureback with the Jets or another team once his rookie contract is up. I moved him into my Top 25 and expect to move him further up sooner rather than later.

Roschon Johnson, Chicago

Corey Spala - Roschon Johnson has claimed the short-yardage role and is presumably the next man up if needed. He has played in two games, totaling 20 opportunities (carries, targets) and one touchdown. He is our current RB45 and should be moving up after the last two weeks of usage. Khalil Herbert has faded out of the offense. I would be comfortable having Johnson over Zamir White (RB42) and Nick Chubb (RB38). Johnson’s future outlook is contingent on the upside he provides if he claims a more significant workload, as D’Andre Swift is currently working as the RB1. I am playing the what-if game, but If Johnson was Chicago’s RB1, I would find him intriguing over assets like Tyjae Spears (RB23) and Zach Charbonnet (RB25).

Jordan Mason, San Francisco

Matt Montgomery - Christian McCaffery is still the best running back on the team, but that doesn’t mean that Mason is just a placeholder until he returns. Mason has proved that he can be a more than capable starter in this system. This will prompt the 49ers to be careful when easing McCaffery back onto the field. There is a realistic possibility that even when he is back, he will have limitations in the offense or a “snap count,” meaning that even as the #2, Mason can and will score points for fantasy teams. 

Jason Wood - Mason is delivering top-5 fantasy value in Christian McCaffrey's absence, yet his dynasty ranking still reflects that of a high-value handcuff. As the news around McCaffrey grows more concerning by the day, we must at least entertain the idea that Mason could be the 49ers' workhorse for multiple seasons. Even if Mason starts only for 2024 and 2025, he deserves a higher ranking than the current consensus suggests.

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle

Matt Montgomery - I don’t think I was alone in my excitement to see what Charbonnet would look like with Ken Walker III returning to the field. Unfortunately, it led to Charbonnet getting just seven touches, and now his season is low. I felt he proved enough to garner more than seven, but with Walker performing as well as he did, I felt pretty negatively about Charbonnet’s value for the rest of the season. 

Javonte Williams, Denver

Andy Hicks - Javonte Williams finally showed signs of life against the Jets. He looked better as the game went on. Aged 24, he has a career if appropriately utilized. That may be the issue in Denver. Like all good backs, he will need carries to wear down a defense. In Denver, having a rookie quarterback would be ideal.  Can the Broncos do it consistently? After his awful start to the season, I downgraded him significantly. Watching him closely against the Jets, he has to come back up. As a 2025 free agent, his next team will be important for his dynasty prospects. A great risk to take for an astute manager.

Kareem Hunt, Kansas City

Andy Hicks - At the start of the season, Hunt looked washed up after rapid deterioration in Cleveland. Unsigned, Hunt returned to his initial team, the Kansas City Chiefs, once Isaiah Pacheco went down. He looked great against the Chargers, but can he do this consistently? He is the kind of back that can have a surprise top-10 season or disappear quickly. Carson Steele is fumbling away from his opportunity, and Samaje Perine must work hard to beat out Hunt. As a dynasty option, he moves up with the promise of a good year but nothing beyond that. 

Derrick Henry, Baltimore

Andy Hicks - Someone neglected to tell Derrick Henry that he is close to 31 years of age. He looked as good as ever against all four of his matchups to date. He is signed for 2025 and, on his current performances, will be an absolute bargain for the Ravens. The season is long, and the team will have a management system to keep him fit. He rates highly over the next two seasons, but the end will come quickly for the future Hall of Famer.

De'Von Achane, Miami

Andy Hicks - It could not have been more evident that the breakout performance of Achane in 2023 was the result of the environment he was in. If that unit returns to full strength and Achane can break those long runs, he is next to useless as a fantasy option. Against the Titans, facing a crucial fourth and one, Achane went for a failed glory run instead of taking the clear lane that Tyler Huntley was pointing him toward the first down. Jaylen Wright looked more reliable. Achane will probably have good days in the future, but his lack of vision disturbed me. He deserves a massive downgrade. 

Brian Robinson Jr., Washington

Jason Wood - Who would have predicted Brian Robinson Jr outperforming Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson through four games? Yet that's exactly what's happening as Robinson has taken on a true every-down role for the Commanders. He's gaining yards after contact, has benefited from an unexpectedly solid offensive line, and is proving effective in the passing game.

Dynasty Movement at Wide Receiver

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville

Jason Wood - Brian Thomas Jr. is one of the biggest risers this week, moving into the top 15. Many of the veterans previously ranked ahead of him are off to disappointing starts, while Thomas has been one of the few bright spots on an 0-4 Jaguars team. Thomas is already ahead of veterans Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, positioning him for a 25% target share for years to come, even with the overhyped Trevor Lawrence throwing him the ball.

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo

Jason Wood - We knew one of Buffalo's receivers needed to step into a primary role, but there was debate over whether it would be Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, or Shakir. I put my bet on Shakir, and the early results are promising. I'm not suggesting a massive tier jump for Shakir, but he should be seen as a high-leverage WR3 with upside.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis

Jason Wood - Pittman re-signed with the Colts, meaning he will be part of a low-volume, low-efficiency passing attack with Anthony Richardson for the foreseeable future. Look at what Pittman achieved in the first three weeks compared to his performance in Week Four under Joe Flacco. Unless the Colts quickly move away from Richardson — which they won't — Pittman isn't a viable starter in most 12-team leagues.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay

Dan Hindery - We have a small two-game sample of Jayden Reed playing with Jordan Love, so the numbers should be taken cautiously. However, his performance is hard to ignore. In those two games, he's totaled 11 catches for 277 yards and two touchdowns, plus an additional 33 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Reed is quickly rising in my rankings and is one of the biggest risers at the position a quarter into the season. The Packers’ offense looks as explosive as we hoped under Love, and with most of the other young receivers underperforming—Christian Watson has been a disappointment and is now injured, Luke Musgrave has been a non-factor, and Romeo Doubs has been solid but not spectacular—Reed has a real opportunity to emerge. 

Ryan Weisse - I have moved Reed up and down my rankings more times than I care to admit over the last six months. After his stretch to the end of 2023, I was convinced he was going to be the top wideout in Green Bay and should be a top 20 receiver in fantasy. Then, I overthought it and convinced myself Christian Watson would hurt Reed, moving him out of my Top 30. It only took two games with Jordan Love to convince me that Reed is the Packers' wide receiver to roster in Dynasty. He is back in my top 20 and sits at WR16 for now.

Nico Collins, Houston

Andy Hicks - With Stefon Diggs arriving from Buffalo and Tank Dell returning from injury, I struggled to see a high ranking for Nico Collins moving forward. Problem solved. His rapport with C.J. Stroud is evident, and Collins has to be considered elite moving forward. This is one bandwagon I missed out on. Time to rectify that. 

Dan Hindery - I had Collins ranked ahead of Tank Dell throughout the offseason, but I didn’t expect their production gap to be this wide. Even though we're just four weeks in—and Dell has missed time due to injury— I misjudged the situation. I thought this would be more like the Eagles, with Collins as the A.J. Brown but with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell taking turns being the top wide receiver in any given week. So far, Collins is solidifying himself as the dominant WR1, while Dell and Stefon Diggs serve more complementary roles. While I’m not quite ready to put Collins in the elite tier with Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja’Marr Chase, he’s showing the potential to reach that level. Currently on pace for 128 catches, 2,078 yards, and eight touchdowns, Collins could soon be valued alongside the league's top receivers if he continues stacking 100-yard games.

Tre Tucker, Las Vegas

Corey Spala - Tre Tucker is in his second NFL season and is developing well for Las Vegas. It certainly helps that Davante Adams requested a trade; this is not the sole reason for Tucker’s nomination to rise in dynasty rankings. Over the last two games, he has played 83% of snaps and accumulated 15 targets. In Week 4, Tucker had 96% route participation. He is currently ranked as WR87. I see no reason why he should not be ranked higher than Jahan Dotson (WR75), Roman Wilson (WR66), and Ja’Lynn Polk (WR58). 

Xavier Legette, Carolina

Corey Spala - We have seen Xavier Legette's potential and the reason Carolina invested in him to be their future WR1. It is partially due to Andy Dalton, yet rather Adam Thielen being on injured reserve. Legette played 87% snaps on 88% route participation, receiving ten targets in the first game without Thielen. He previously played 53.3% of snaps and totaled ten targets in the first three games. Legette is our current WR46 and should be considered for a rise in rankings. The plethora of wide receiver talent leaves the question of where, but I consider him over Christian Kirk (WR42) and Keon Coleman (WR39). Then we can consider the aging-but-right-now-production wide receivers like Davante Adams (WR38) and Stefon Diggs (WR33) contingent on Legette continuing his Week 4 performance.

Tyreek Hill, Miami

Matt Montgomery - The Miami Dolphins have a serious quarterback problem, but typically elite players can retain some value despite what is happening to their quarterback. Hill may be an exception to this rule. Monday night’s abysmal game between the Titans and Dolphins felt like it should have been played on Nickelodeon instead of ESPN, but the worst part was seeing a perennial top-three receiver fail to score more than 7 PPR points. 

Davante Adams, Las Vegas

Matt Montgomery - It is a matter of time before Adams gets traded, and I believe this will provide, at minimum, a short-term burst to his production. Depending on the landing spot, it could be a 2–3-year bump. We are at the twilight of his career and watching what appears to be a shell of a person working a job they don’t like. We've all been there, right? Free Davante! Let’s see what he can do on a high-powered offense like Atlanta or Buffalo. 

Malik Nabers, NY Giants

Ryan Weisse—I let landing spot play too much into my rankings regarding this class of rookie receivers. I immediately put Marvin Harrison Jr.. in my top 5 because he was tied to Kyler Murray. The prospect of Nabers being stuck with Daniel Jones terrified me, and I kept him out of my Top 10. How foolish I was. But four weeks was enough to change my mind, and Nabers is now my WR6 and could have the top spot soon enough.

Andy Hicks - On paper, the selection of Malik Nabers was a clear sign that his fantasy future was assured—those who have seen the Giants' offense struggle for years to produce a fantasy-relevant receiver thought otherwise. Well, the verdict is in. The Giants are throwing at him at an absurdly high rate, making the fantasy numbers expected to be excellent, even with Daniel Jones throwing the ball. The hype was justified. Time to respect his standing. 

Jordan Whittington, LA Rams

Andy Hicks - The Rams have done an excellent job at getting value late in the NFL draft. Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and now potentially Jordan Whittington. Whittington has been thrust into a starting role following injuries to Nacua and Cooper Kupp. He gets a solid boost in rankings and hopes that further development leads to a strong career in the NFL. Let’s see him do it again. And again.  

Christian Watson, Green Bay

Andy Hicks - Watson has been incredibly frustrating for fantasy managers to deal with. Regularly injured and inconsistent when on the field. The Packers look better without him too. In the right environment, though, he is a number-one receiver. Waiting for free agency in 2026 seems a lifetime away, though. He gets a big drop in my overvalued rating of him, but if he gets a run at this job, he will no doubt rise again. 

 

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