There's a lot of strong dynasty analysis out there, especially when compared to five or ten years ago. But most of it is so dang practical-- Player X is undervalued, Player Y's workload is troubling, the market at this position is irrational, and take this specific action to win your league. Dynasty, in Theory is meant as a corrective, offering insights and takeaways into the strategic and structural nature of the game that might not lead to an immediate benefit but which should help us become better players over time.

Free Agents (Mostly) Don't Matter.

Fellow Footballguy Sigmund Bloom likes to compare the three primary paths for a manager to acquire players to a three-legged stool: teams are built through the draft, trades, and free agency. If it is a stool, then it is a lopsided one; one of those legs contributes considerably less talent and production than the other two. Let's illustrate.

Every league is different, but in my oldest dynasty league, I record the first and last lineup I submit every season. The league started in 2007, giving me 17 and a half seasons worth of lineups. Each lineup consists of seven players (a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and a tight end), which means I've recorded 245 player-starts. 

Would you care to guess how many of those starts went to a player I had gotten off of waivers or first-come, first-serve free agency? (Feel free to take a moment to pause and consider.)

The answer is 11, or less than 4.5% of all starts. Adam Thielen appeared in three of my recorded lineups, and then Brandon Weeden, Chad Henne, Denard Robinson, Gabriel Davis, Mike Sims-Walker, Ty Montgomery II, and Clive Walford appeared one time each (mostly as short-term injury replacements).

Perhaps I'm not very good at playing the waiver wire? Actually, I'm one of the league leaders in value added through free agency-- in addition to Thielen, I acquired Austin Ekeler off the street (though he didn't start for me often before I traded him for a first-round draft pick.) I've also added a handful of solid depth players-- Chase Brown, Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, etc.

My league is on the deeper side, though not especially so (there are currently 278 skill players rostered). You can look at your own league's history and I feel confident that unless you're in an especially shallow league, it won't differ significantly. Dynasty managers are just much sharper than they were a decade ago, and it's rare for a true difference-maker to slip past all of them and make it to the street.

But while production is rare from free agency, it's also free-- so it behooves us to continue to pan for gold. With that in mind, I wanted to look at past waiver-wire darlings to point out certain archetypes that have historically been slightly less unlikely to hit.

Yesterday's Waiver Wire Gems

I'll be using current player trade values on FantasyCalc as a starting point. These values are calculated based on actual dynasty trades, so they give a fair representation of current market value. Among the current top 100 overall players, I will highlight the names who were potentially available in free agency. (To estimate this, I'll look at players who fell outside of the Top 200 picks in startup drafts at some point, according to DynastyLeagueFootball.com's historical ADP.)

Quarterback:

• Jalen Hurts (QB4, 25th overall)
• Jordan Love (QB8, 45th overall)
• Brock Purdy (QB11, 64th overall)
• Baker Mayfield (QB15, 88th overall)

Running Back:

• Kyren Williams (RB7, 21st overall)
• Isiah Pacheco (RB13, 47th overall)
• Chase Brown (RB17, 54th overall)
• Chuba Hubbard (RB20, 67th overall)
• James Conner (RB22, 75th overall)

Wide Receiver:

• Puka Nacua (WR9, 15th overall)
• Tyreek Hill (WR16, 36th overall)
• Darnell Mooney (WR39, 98th overall)

Tight End:

• George Kittle (TE5, 57th overall)
• Cade Otton (TE9, 97th overall)

Note that only 14 of the current Top 100 players have ever fallen outside of the Top 200 picks in startup drafts, on average. That's 14% (#MentalMath). This means that 86% of players were drafted and rostered continuously. Again, finding value in free agency is rare. But in my experience, two archetypes tend to hit at a slightly better rate.

Archetype #1: Backup Quarterbacks

Especially highly drafted backup quarterbacks. I find that highly drafted quarterbacks always tend to be a bit undervalued-- I've made a ton of profit over the years drafting players like Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes II, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, et al. in the 2nd round of rookie drafts (typically on teams that already had several strong quarterback options).

 But when a highly-drafted quarterback lands on a team that is "set" at the position, he's probably not making a roster in your dynasty league. And that's a mistake because things change fast in the NFL. You might think you'd have to devote a roster spot for a year or two before you see the payoff, but you can usually work around this-- at the end of the year, you can cut any extra defenses or short-term players and fill those spots with backup quarterbacks. If they secure a starting job over the offseason, you already have them rostered. If not, you can easily cut them to make room for incoming rookies.

Purdy and Mayfield don't really fit this archetype. I don't think there's really any way for managers to predict a Brock Purdy. As for Mayfield, between him, Geno Smith, and Sam Darnold, it's possible we're entering an era where former busts will land with new teams and become fantasy starters. At this point, though, it feels premature to call that an archetype worth investing in.

Current examples: Hurts, Love
Past examples: Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers
Potential Future Examples?: Michael Penix Jr., Malik Willis, Tyson Bagent (Superflex / deep leagues only)

Archetype #2: Backup Running Backs

Draft position is much less relevant here-- the five current Waiver Wire Gems were drafted in the 5th, 7th, 5th, 4th, and 3rd rounds. (Conner, the 3rd rounder, was typically rostered through his rookie year but fell outside the Top 200 heading into Year 2 and was often cut to make room for incoming rookies. In hindsight, this was a mistake; Le'Veon Bell held out the entire season, and Conner produced 1500 yards and 13 TDs in 13 games.)

While draft position doesn't matter much, one common thread tying these five backs together is institutional buy-in. Even when they weren't producing, it was easy to find glowing quotes from their coaches and general managers. The teams generally treated these backs as if their jobs were safe. And then, when the starter left or was hurt, these players were ready to take over a larger workload.

It's hard to guess exactly which backup running backs are going to see their value spike (especially since the primary driver is usually an injury to the player ahead of them, which is virtually impossible to predict), so it's not a bad idea to roster as many backup running backs as you can afford to hold just to maximize your chances of being the beneficiary.

Current examples: every player listed above
Past examples: Arian Foster, Austin Ekeler, Latavius Murray, James Robinson, Raheem Mostert, Chris Carson
Potential Future Examples?: Tyler Allgeier, Jerome Ford, Carson Steele

Mini-Archetype: Mid-Round TEs

Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews were 3rd round picks. George Kittle was a 5th. Cade Otton, Dalton Schultz, and Jake Ferguson were 4th round picks. A lot of productive tight ends come from the 60-150 range in the NFL draft. For our purposes, the problem is even the hits at tight end tend to be fairly small (Schultz and Ferguson have given several startable seasons, but you likely weren't ever fetching much for either in a trade.)

Whenever I don't know what else to do with a roster spot, though, I like to stash a 1st or 2nd-year tight end drafted in the 3rd-5th round range. Current names that live on my watch list include Brenton Strange, Darnell Washington, Noah Gray, and Tucker Kraft 

Anti-Archetype: Late-Round Receivers

You might have noticed a bit of a pattern among the WRs-- all three were 5th-round draft picks. Additionally, players like Doug Baldwin, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Marques Colston were all late draft picks or undrafted rookies who went on to be multi-year starters for their fantasy franchise.

Are late-round receivers good bets? No, this is just selection bias. Dynasty leagues tend to be receiver-crazy, which means all early-round draft picks are drafted and held (probably for longer than they should be), which means any waiver wire gems must be late-round receivers. But I've been looking for years and I've never been able to find a pattern that will help identify these gems in advance. Most late-round receivers will be unstartable for fantasy. A few will become stars. I don't really know how to tell one group from the other.

Will Focusing on These Archetypes Make You Successful?

Probably not. Again, finding value in free agency is rare; at any given moment, a given team in a twelve-team league would be expected to have one player on its roster who qualifies as a waiver-wire gem. At best, focusing on players who fit these molds will only marginally increase our odds of success.

But we're greedy and want more than our fair share, so marginal improvements are better than nothing.