A good sports betting column should be backed by a profitable gambler with a proven track record. It should offer picks generated by a sophisticated and conceptually sound model. Most importantly, it should treat the subject with the seriousness it warrants.

This is not that column.

Instead, this will be an off-beat look at the sports betting industry-- why Vegas keeps winning, why gambling advice is almost certainly not worth the money, and the structural reasons why even if a bettor were profitable, anything they wrote would be unlikely to make their readers net profitable, too.

While we're at it, we'll discuss ways to minimize Vegas' edge and make recreational betting more fun, explain how to gain an advantage in your office pick pools, preview games through an offbeat lens (with picks guaranteed to be no worse than chance), and tackle various other Odds and Ends along the way.

Looking at the Futures

Since it's the start of the playoffs, I wanted to kick us off with a look at the current Super Bowl futures for all remaining teams. Last year, I correctly picked the Kansas City Chiefs to win it all, writing: 

Hello? +1000 odds on the defending Super Bowl Champions? A team with two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes II, first-ballot Hall of Fame head coach Andy Reid, and their best defense since 2016? Am I missing something here? They're a slam-dunk bet.

I also incorrectly picked the 49ers, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Eagles, Dolphins, Lions, Browns, Rams, Texans, Buccaneers, Packers, and Steelers to win it all. What can I say, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

You're all in for a repeat performance because I'm about to correctly pick this year's Super Bowl Champion and also incorrectly pick everyone else.

Detroit Lions (+275)

They're the best team in the NFL. The best team always wins. Take it to the bank.

Kansas City Chiefs (+350)

Look, I don't know a lot about football, but I know you always take the better quarterback in the playoffs, and the Chiefs have the best quarterback in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens (+600)

Look, I don't know a lot about football, but I know you always take the better quarterback in the playoffs, and the Ravens have the best quarterback in the NFL. 

Buffalo Bills (+600)

Look, I don't know a lot about football, but I know you always take the better quarterback in the playoffs, and the Bills have the best quarterback in the NFL. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+700)

Saquon Barkley had a chance to break the single-season rushing yardage record, but he told his coaches he'd rather be healthy and rested to maximize their chances in the playoffs. The Football Gods look favorably on this kind of sacrifice and will surely reward him with a ring.

Minnesota Vikings (+1600)

Many believe this franchise is cursed, but these are not your father's Minnesota Vikings. I don't think. Maybe they are; it's hard to say. But if they're not, then the franchise that ties for the most Super Bowl losses without a win is due for a win. (And if they are, then they're not. That's why it's called gambling.)

Green Bay Packers (+1800)

Every Green Bay Packers quarterback goes on to win 3+ league MVPs and make the Hall of Fame. Along the way, they all win one-- and only one-- Super Bowl, typically early enough in their career that no one ever has to question whether they're a choker. (Bart Starr won five championships, but only two of them were Super Bowls-- and he had to sacrifice two of his league MVPs to get that second Super Bowl.)

Why does this happen to every Green Bay quarterback? Because the Football Gods hate Bears fans, that's why. I think this year, Love gets his ring knocked out so he can begin focusing on the many MVPs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3000)

Tom Brady is a 7-time Super Bowl champion, and the Buccaneers are +3000? When will we learn our lesson? How are we still doubting him?

Wait, what's that? Baker Mayfield, you say? Eh, close enough.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3500)

Jim Harbaugh has never lost a championship game except for that one time, but that was against his brother, so it doesn't count. Chargers teammates are confiding in the media that if they win, they think Justin Herbert might get so excited he shows visible emotion. At the post-game press conference, Harbaugh is liable to start calmly reciting the lyrics to Milkshake by Kelis. There's too much at stake for this not to happen.

Washington Commanders (+3500)

Rookie quarterbacks don't usually win championships, but Jayden Daniels is less a quarterback and more a pseudo-messianic figure.

NFL QB remains among the most fascinating jobs in the world, with the latest example being Washington Commanders players - grown men - describing Jayden Daniels in essentially religious terms. “I believe. We believe.” pic.twitter.com/aVTofnrMye

— Chris B. Brown (@smartfootball) September 24, 2024

We're witnessing the birth of a brand new religion. It'd be crazy not to get in on the ground floor.

Los Angeles Rams (+3500)

In 2021, the Rams became one of the worst Super Bowl winners of all time. But NFL players are a prideful bunch and don't love sharing the glory, so when this year's Rams have an opportunity to delete "one of the" and become the unquestioned worst Super Bowl winner of all time, they will be incredibly motivated to do so.

Denver Broncos (+8000)

One important thing to realize is that most of the top contenders this year are absolutely cursed franchises. The Broncos' first opponent, the Buffalo Bills, lost four straight Super Bowls and then followed that up by going 24 years without a playoff win just so their fanbase could decide which experience was more painful. Should Denver win, they face the Chiefs. Things have gone fairly well recently for Kansas City, but this is still a franchise that shanked three 13-3 seasons with a home upset in the divisional round, the franchise that gave us the Lin Elliott game. On the other side of the bracket, you have the Lions and the Vikings.

What I'm getting at is that there are a lot of top teams in this playoff field who have a penchant for delivering maximum pain to their fanbase. And with where Denver is in the bracket, they might as well change their name to Maximum Pain. They could easily luck into a Super Bowl they don't deserve just by being in the right place as the Football Gods do their smiting.

Houston Texans (+10,000)

Coaches always talk about the importance of balance, right? Well, Houston has just become the first team in a decade-- just the tenth team in history-- to score exactly as many points as it allowed. It's hard to get much more balanced than that.

Pittsburgh (+10,000)

We've won a ton of bets this year first by picking Pittsburgh to overperform low expectations until they got to 9 wins, then switching to betting on them underperforming high expectations the rest of the way. Now expectations are low, which means Pittsburgh is poised to make a run. Pittsburgh fans complain about this, but honestly, it's the height of comedy.

Lines I'm Seeing

The Iced Coffee Lock of the Week

I said last week that our pick didn't count because we'd already finalized our record for the year, so it didn't matter that the (pseudo)random number generator lost. (Had the PRNG won, I'd definitely be taking credit, though.)

Green Bay (+4.5) at Philadelphia

This game takes place on the 21-year and 1-day anniversary of 4th and 26, and the PRNG thinks the Packers are still steamed about it. And who could blame them? Nobody but Eagles fans wanted another press conference of Freddie Mitchell giving himself even more nicknames and thanking his hands. Revenge is in the air, and the points are on our side, so let's take the Packers.