Data-driven decision-making in fantasy football does not require a slavish devotion to numbers. The deeper down the rabbit hole you go, the more you appreciate how many questionable assumptions even the most robust analysis is built upon. The value of quantifying things that are inherently difficult to put numbers on is not all about finding answers. Instead, much of the benefit comes from a better understanding of which questions and assumptions are most important.

To some extent, we are all just guessing. The real goal is to make our guesses as educated as possible.

Within that context, today’s Dynasty Data article will explore concepts of data-driven dynasty decision-making through the lens of a single decision. You are on the clock in a dynasty startup draft, and the two best players on your board are Rome Odunze and Brandon Aiyuk. Who are you drafting?

Why Compare Odunze and Aiyuk?

There are thousands of different 1v1 scenarios I could have chosen to explore. Why pick these two players specifically?

1. The two play the same position. Deciding between players at different positions involves many considerations and requires analysis specific to the league’s settings. Sticking to two players at the same position simplifies the analysis.
2. The two play the same position, but the decision is less apples-to-apples than between two rookies (Rome Odunze vs. Malik Nabers) or two fifth-year wide receivers (Brandon Aiyuk vs. Tee Higgins). The fact that the two players are at different stages of their careers adds a layer of complexity that I find especially interesting.
3. Many will face this Who Do I Draft? decision. I found myself on the clock last week pondering Odunze v. Aiyuk. Plus, the general consensus is that the two are valued exactly the same. If you check KeepTradeCut, for example, the valuation of the two is nearly identical.

Exploring the Odunze vs. Aiyuk decision allows us to explore deeper ideas like burn rate,  understanding long-term player value through shorter increments, and managing roster risk.

Short-Term Production

According to the Footballguys consensus projections, Brandon Aiyuk (14.8 fantasy PPG) is expected to outscore Rome Odunze (9.8 fantasy PPG) by about five fantasy PPG this season. This is a major part of any data-driven analysis and provides a strong starting point for the player comparison.

Other factors will favor Odunze, but we must balance those against the fact that Aiyuk will likely be the more productive fantasy player in 2024.

Burn Rate

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the dynasty burn rate. I hope you will check out the full article if you have not read it, but here is a quick summary of the concept:

1. We can quantify the dynasty value of the incoming rookie class by using startup auction values. Something in the neighborhood of 15% of total startup auction dollars is spent on rookies. This means the average veteran loses 15% of his dynasty value throughout a season.
2. This 15% burn rate is not the same across all positions and all experience levels. Some player groups (like rookie wide receivers) see their value increase (negative burn rate). In contrast, other player groups (especially older wide receivers and running backs) have higher burn rates than 15%.

For purposes of the Odunze-Aiyuk decision, we want to look back at the burn rate we calculated for rookies (class of 2023) in comparison to the burn rate for fifth-year wide receivers (class of 2019):

If you invested your 2023 dynasty startup auction dollars in rookie wide receivers, on average, those players are worth 53.4% more today than in your 2023 startup. If you invested your startup dollars in wide receivers entering their fifth NFL season, those players are worth (on average) 31.1% less today.

For the sake of argument, let’s say that Odunze and Aiyuk have the same burn rates in 2024 as receivers with their experience levels did last season; what would both be valued at on KeepTradeCut (“KTC”) at this time next year?

If Odunze’s value got the big bump typical of receivers entering Year 2, his KTC value heading into 2025 would be 8,675. If Aiyuk’s value takes a big drop, typical of a wide receiver entering Year 6, his KTC value heading into 2025 would be 3,954.

Many small-sample size caveats apply, and I am not comfortable taking one year’s worth of data and using it universally. However, the two big takeaways are true:

• If Rome Odunze does not completely fall on his face as a rookie, his value will likely increase over the next year.
• Brandon Aiyuk is quickly approaching the age and experience level at which his dynasty value will decline rapidly.

The projected 5.0 fantasy PPG gap in 2024 is essential. Is the short-term benefit to your 2024 lineup that drafting Aiyuk over Odunze should provide worth the potential value gap we expect to see between the two players after the season ends?

This article is more about helping you ask yourself the right questions than providing answers, and this is the biggest question to consider.

Player valuation in different time increments

It is essential to remember that when you are making dynasty draft picks or trades, you are not committing yourself to having that player on your roster for the entirety of their careers. One of the most appealing aspects of managing a dynasty team is the ability to make trades. Any dynasty analysis projecting out the entire career fantasy value (potentially for a decade or more) of a rookie like Odunze is exciting but probably overly complicated and unnecessary. The more accessible and more helpful analysis is breaking things down into more minor questions:

1. How much will this player help me win over the next year or two?
2. How much will the player likely be worth at the end of that period?

At a basic level, every dynasty decision we make should consider our two primary goals—to win fantasy matchups in the current season and position ourselves to win fantasy matchups in future seasons (by maximizing the future value of our roster). This is a delicate balancing act, and depending on the makeup of our roster, we may lean more in one direction than the other at any given time.

Managing Risk

Some of the analysis above rests upon an assumption that Odunze will see his value increase over the short term because that is what has typically happened for rookie wide receivers as an overall group. However, within each group, there are winners and losers. The 2023 wide receiver class (as a whole) is more valuable now than it was at this time last year. Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, and others are more valuable dynasty assets as we enter 2024 than they were last offseason. On the other end of the spectrum, players like Quentin Johnston and Jonathan Mingo saw their values crater. Rookies have a higher variance in outcomes than veterans (though not as much as some think).

This risk factor scares many away from rolling the dice on a player like Rome Odunze when a proven option like Aiyuk is also available. It is understandable to some extent. However, there are ways for us as dynasty owners to manage the risk. Here are some of those strategies:

1. More rookies means less risk. This may seem counter-intuitive at first glance if we accept that rookies are high-variance assets, but it is true. If you drafted only one 2023 rookie in your startup last offseason, he may have hit big or busted. If you drafted five or six rookie wide receivers, the odds that all of them busted are exceedingly small. This is a similar concept to investing in the stock market. If you choose a single growth stock to go all in on, you are taking a significant risk. If you invest in a portfolio of many different growth stocks, you decrease your risk substantially.

2. Join multiple leagues. If the time commitment is manageable for you, managing your overall risk by joining multiple dynasty leagues is easier. Optimal decision-making can be easier when you have more teams. To use the investment example above, you can view your teams as a portfolio. It is easier to emphasize planning for the future and suffering through some short-term losses in a league if you know you have contending teams in other leagues.

3. Embrace variance. Last but certainly not least, we can choose to embrace variance. In some ways, the worst possible outcome for our dynasty teams is to get stuck in no-man’s land, where we are middle of the pack year after year. Playing it too safe can lead to a scenario in which we are not genuine contenders in the short term and are not building the assets we need to contend in the future. Take some big swings, and if you miss them, you are at least in a position to rebuild with top draft picks.

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