Footballguys staff got together to play a game of Buy, Hold, or Sell. They grouped and examined three similarly valued Dynasty players and placed them into each category.

The team looked at three young running backs in Superflex Dynasty formats: MarShawn Lloyd, Jaylen Warren, and Tyjae Spears.

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The Results (number of votes in parentheses)

• Buy: MarShawn Lloyd (4), Jaylen Warren (0), Tyjae Spears (2)
• Hold: MarShawn Lloyd (2), Jaylen Warren (0), Tyjae Spears (4)
• Sell: MarShawn Lloyd (0), Jaylen Warren (6), Tyjae Spears (0)

Each Staffer's Responses

Ryan Weisse

• Buy: MarShawn Lloyd
• Hold: Tyjae Spears
• Sell: Jaylen Warren

Nobody likes this rookie running back class much, so I'll keep buying while there is value. Lloyd looks stuck behind Josh Jacobs, but Green Bay could get out of the Jacobs contract as early as next season. I'm selling Warren as the oldest back in this group. He still competes with Najee Harris for touches, capping his upside, but the PPR community loves him. Spears is in a similar spot to Lloyd, but Tony Pollard could hold him back for the next two or three seasons, and they have similar skill sets. I wouldn't want to rely on him every week, but he also doesn't have much trade value.

Andy Hicks

• Buy: MarShawn Lloyd
• Hold: Tyjae Spears
• Sell: Jaylen Warren

A rookie running back drafted in the first three rounds should always be considered a better option than proven committee guys or backups. Lloyd does have a significant obstacle with Josh Jacobs ahead of him, but compared to the other options, he has a better upside.

Tony Pollard disappointed when given the opportunity in Dallas, forcing his move to Tennessee. Tyjae Spears did well as Derrick Henry's backup. The split here will be fascinating. Spears is not expected to be the dominant guy, though.

As for Jaylen Warren and his prospects, it is ominous that Najee Harris finished the season strong, and Arthur Smith is the new coordinator. Maybe Warren still has a solid role, but the anticipation is he doesn’t

Jason Wood

• Buy: MarShawn Lloyd
• Hold: Tyjae Spears
• Sell: Jaylen Warren

This trio is challenging to value, so when in doubt, go with the well-regarded rookie, as dynasty managers tend to overvalue potential. Lloyd has the pass-catching versatility to be an impact fantasy asset if he can navigate a crowded depth chart in 2025 and beyond. Neither Spears nor Warren has the organizational buy-in to be lead-backs, and it’s rare for RB2s with multiple seasons of experience to amount to much in a dynasty.

Corey Spala 

• Buy: MarShawn Lloyd
• Hold: Tyjae Spears
• Sell: Jaylen Warren

Green Bay signed Josh Jacobs to a four-year contract and drafted MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Looking deeper into the Jacobs signing, you see an edge to buy Lloyd. Green Bay could move on from Jacobs following the 2024 season. I am not saying Lloyd will become the RB1 in 2025; there is just a chance for this to happen. Lloyd figures to have a role regardless, as Green Bay has a historical preference for utilizing two running backs. Lloyd has the desired build: 220 pounds, offering after-contract strength and 4.46 speed with agility to provide the desired explosiveness.

I believe Jaylen Warren will not claim the RB1 role for Pittsburgh. Arthur Smith preferred having his lead running back while the number two option was involved. You may know a Warren believer who will overpay so that I would be selling. He will undoubtedly have a role in the offense. I am looking for a player with whom I can be confident in long-term or draft picks. 

Tyjae Spears figured to lead Tennessee after an intriguing rookie season. He saw 170 opportunities (rushing attempts, targets) playing behind Derrick Henry. Tennessee signed Tony Pollard to provide veteran depth; you should be fine with this signing. Despite a supplementary role, Spears had the fourth-highest avoided tackle rate in 2023 and was in the top 10 in running back targets. Spears will be ready to showcase the talents he displayed in his limited rookie season touches. 

Matt Waldman

• Buy: Tyjae Spears
• Hold: MarShawn Lloyd
• Sell: Jaylen Warren

Spears is a legitimate lead-back talent. Rarely do you hear a coaching staff tell the media that their top two backs will divide the same roles. Usually, each back has specific duties. This should tell you that they regard Spears and Tony Pollard as equals in talent but want to keep both options strong. Pollard has more to prove that he can physically return to his top form and not just be healthy enough to be on the field. That happened last year in Dallas, and he did not perform to standard. Spears performed well even with a bad offensive line. Spears will take over a larger share of the workload by midseason. 

I'm selling Warren because Arthur Smith favors big, physical backs who can carry a large workload. Warren broke many tackles last year, but Najee Smith was at the top of the league in yards after contact. I'm also a little distrustful of these broken tackle metrics because they don't measure the type of tackle or the type of tackler attempting them, and that has gravity when determining if a back is legitimately performing well in this area or he's earning easier opportunities due to play design. I'd keep Warren in many scenarios, but of the three backs listed, he has the lowest long-term ceiling. 

I'm holding Lloyd because he has speed, quickness, receiving skills, and the potential to develop into a good decision-maker between the tackles. Josh Jacobs has a multi-year contract, but there's a potential out with his deal at year's end. If Lloyd can prove that he can maintain ball security better than he did in college and mature as a decision-maker, he could become a starter and a high-volume lead back. Lloyd is worth holding relative to the price of the other two backs on the list. At the same time, I could argue that Lloyd is the most appealing to sell because of the buzz about him, and I believe Jacobs will remain in Green Bay for another 2-3 years as the primary back.

Jeff Bell

• Buy: Tyjae Spears
• Hold: MarShawn Lloyd
• Sell: Jaylen Warren

Tyjae Spears is a confirmed NFL talent. His receiving ability immediately translated as a rookie, and he has the potential to earn a difference-making three-down role. 

Lloyd is speculation at this point. Josh Jacobs's deal is structured to give the Packers an early out, but that is putting the horse before the cart until Lloyd proves the concept. 

Warren is on a heads-up committee with Najee Harris, who is older than the other two backs and may have Cordarrelle Patterson lurking to form a three-headed committee. 

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