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Will the real Diontae Johnson please stand up?!

Johnson is an enigma. He has earned targets at an elite rate. In 2023, he posted an impressive blend of an average depth of target (ADOT) at 12.7 paired with yards after catch (YAC) of 5.1. Only Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, George Pickens, and DK Metcalf posted higher numbers in both categories. He even corrected the drop issue that plagued him early in his career, with a 2.3% rate placing him among the league leaders.

What has that package yielded for fantasy?

Johnson has spent the past four seasons as a primary target in the Steelers' offense. This has resulted in only one half-point per reception (0.5 PPR) season inside the top 20 in points per game and just two seasons inside the top 35. He tops that off with a dubious NFL record: his 86 receptions in 2022 are the most in NFL history without a touchdown, placing him outside the top 50 in 0.5 PPR per game. A player finishing the season seventh in targets while not being playable in fantasy lineups is unprecedented.

An enigma indeed.

Entering 2024, Johnson is in a desperate position. His new team, the Carolina Panthers, must show dramatic strides in developing their young franchise quarterback, Bryce Young. Johnson is in a contract year, with a two-year bridge extension off his rookie deal expiring. He will need to prove his production as a potential unrestricted free agent, and at age 29, this is his last chance at securing a large contract.

Fortunately for fantasy drafters, the downsides are fully baked into his cost. His average draft position (ADP) is WR38, driven notably low by an ADP of 128 overall on MyFantasyLeague.com. On most sites, Johnson is available in the seventh round or later. Courtland Sutton may be the only player available later who projects to have as clear a path to leading their team in targets.

Johnson is a must-target in formats that reward points per reception. How can new coach Dave Canales's offense put Johnson in a position to succeed?

The Canales Offense

Canales's rise in the coaching ranks has been meteoric. He spent eight seasons as the Seahawks' wide receiver coach before stepping up to quarterback coach and passing game coordinator. His past two seasons have seen the Seahawks transition from longtime centerpiece Russell Wilson to an excellent season by Geno Smith in 2022, followed by the resurrection of Baker Mayfield's career in 2023.

Bryce Young is the perfect clay for Canales to mold.

Canales's scheme philosophy seeks to simplify decisions for the quarterback. Ideally, making accessible, correct decisions has a snowball effect on a young quarterback's confidence. The Panthers were aggressive in creating an environment conducive to Young's success. In free agency, they signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to a combined $153 million worth of contracts, making Hunt the second-highest-paid guard in the NFL and Lewis the eighth-highest-paid. In the draft, the team tripled down on giving Young weapons, adding wide receiver Xavier Legette after a trade into the first round, running back Jonathon Brooks in the second, and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders in the fourth.

The makeover seeks to transform a dreadful offense that led to Frank Reich's firing after just 11 games.

Johnson is the focal point of the overhaul.

When he arrived, Canales told Johnson: “I'm playing the X. You're gonna be the first read in the progression almost every play. With the unique skill set that you bring to the table, I'm gonna utilize it.”

Canales has emphasized the importance of improving the run game. ESPN's David Newton does a strong job of breaking down what Canales is looking for in an offense. In the piece, Newton pulls quotes from Canales about getting Young moving toward the line of scrimmage and getting the ball out quickly. Young's size (measured at 5-foot-10 pre-draft) was a topic of discussion in his prospect profile and an issue in his rookie season.

Getting the ball out of his hands quickly fits firmly within Johnson's skill set. In 2023, Young struggled with this concept; his 2.5-second pocket time ranked among the top six longest times, and his pressure rate of 24.2% was ninth. Compare that to Mayfield, who was pressured on only 17.6% of dropbacks, the best rate of his career by far, and a number only beaten by six other quarterbacks.

This approach aligns well with Johnson's best season. In 2021, Johnson posted a line of 169 targets, 107 receptions, 1,161 yards, and eight touchdowns. The 2021 season was Ben Roethlisberger's final in the NFL, and Roethlisberger had one of the lowest pocket times in the NFL at 2.2 seconds with a pressure rate of 18.6%.

Johnson has consistently been graded as an elite player in the short and intermediate areas by both PFF.com and Matt Harmon's Reception Perception. 

Conceptually, expect Johnson to see a healthy diet of screens or plays that put Young on the move outside the pocket, with Johnson serving as the primary receiver.

In other words, a PPR smorgasbord. But is Johnson capable of delivering on the need?

Diontae Johnson's Profile

From 2020 to 2022, Johnson sought to cement himself as one of the elite players in the NFL. His opportunity was staggering: 469 targets in three years.

Only Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, and Tyreek Hill saw more targets—the elite of the elite.

However, digging through the stats shows why Johnson never reached that tier. His yards per reception trailed the group by at least two yards. His catch percentage was the lowest by a significant margin. His yards per target were below average, while the other players nearly doubled him up or more on touchdowns.

Johnson showed improvement in multiple areas in 2023. His 14.7 yards per reception were a career-high, as was his 52.9% success rate. His 2.3% drop rate was a career low. Plus, he scored touchdowns.

Johnson is projected to play the X position in Canales's offensive scheme. The last two players who filled that role, Mike Evans and DK Metcalf, possess dramatically different skill sets as big receivers who rely on winning the ball and late separation. Metcalf, in particular, shows where Johnson can succeed in this role. Metcalf's ADOT was 12.7 or higher in his first three seasons, but under Canales's passing attack, it dropped to 11.2 in 2022. Metcalf saw a career-high 141 targets, 12 more than his previous career high.

The arrival of Legette, a player who profiles much closer to Metcalf and Evans's body types, could change those plans.

Even then, the scheme has plenty of room for optimism and volume. Tyler Lockett saw 117 targets at an ADOT of 10.6 in 2022, and Chris Godwin had 130 at 9.0 yards in 2023. Both players topped 1,000 yards. The offenses hyper-targeted the top two options in both years, with a 60+ target gap between the WR2 and WR3 in the scheme.

The Bryce Young of It All

The need for Johnson within this scheme and Canales's offensive star may be the most apparent positive factors in a boom case for Johnson. However, it still leaves Young to orchestrate the attack.

Eight rookies have attempted as many passes as Young's 527 with a completion percentage of 60% or worse. 

The good news? Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are on the list. The bad news? Other than Trevor Lawrence, the rest of the list isn't as encouraging. At least Young did not turn the ball over at the rate of several others.

Lawrence is the one to place hope on. First, he is the only player on the list after 2015, when the game saw a radical shift due to two-high-shell defenses. Like Young, he was drafted first overall. Like Young, his coach was fired during his rookie season. And like Young, his team brought in an offensive-focused head coach to work on reconciliation.

Lawrence's second season showed dramatic improvement.

His completion percentage jumped nearly seven points, his passer rating increased by 24 points, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio flipped to 25-8. This turnaround culminated in a playoff berth and a seventh-place finish in MVP voting.

What changed?

The Jaguars had a healthy Travis Etienne after he missed his rookie season. The team added Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones. They addressed the offensive line by signing guard Brandon Scherff, making him one of the highest-paid guards in the NFL.

Sound familiar?

Kirk thrived in his first season with Lawrence, giving the quarterback a starting-caliber receiver and posting an 84-1,108-8 season career highs across the board.

Despite a lost season, Young flashed reasons for optimism in Week 16. Against the playoff-bound Packers, he went 23-36 for 312 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Packers won 33-30, but not before Young led two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes to tie the game at 30.

Young's rapport and production with Adam Thielen are the most critical aspects of Johnson's fantasy projection. At age 33 and in his tenth season, Thielen produced his second 100+ catch year and third-most yards with 1,014. Young could support an unlikely high-volume target despite defenses having little else to key on within the scheme.

Diontae Johnson's Recent Stats

Diontae Johnson 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

Johnson steps into a situation that needs his production. He pairs with a rising offensive coach with a proven record of producing high-level passing game success. Bryce Young has already shown he can support surprising production from his primary receiver in his only season.

Occasionally, fantasy football situations present negative narratives that stack on top of each other: Young's rookie year struggles, Johnson's history of drops and touchdown-less seasons, and the uncertainty of a rookie head coach.

These are the situations to attack.

The most likely scenario is that Johnson will be priced at his floor, with a top-12 WR1 season within his range of outcomes. Take that risk every time.

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