Diontae Johnson: Does He Have Fantasy WR1 Potential?

Photo: USA Today Sports

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Will the real Diontae Johnson please stand up?!

Johnson is an enigma. He has earned targets at an elite rate. In 2023, he posted an impressive blend of an average depth of target (ADOT) at 12.7 paired with yards after catch (YAC) of 5.1. Only Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, George Pickens, and DK Metcalf posted higher numbers in both categories. He even corrected the drop issue that plagued him early in his career, with a 2.3% rate placing him among the league leaders.

What has that package yielded for fantasy?

Johnson has spent the past four seasons as a primary target in the Steelers' offense. This has resulted in only one half-point per reception (0.5 PPR) season inside the top 20 in points per game and just two seasons inside the top 35. He tops that off with a dubious NFL record: his 86 receptions in 2022 are the most in NFL history without a touchdown, placing him outside the top 50 in 0.5 PPR per game. A player finishing the season seventh in targets while not being playable in fantasy lineups is unprecedented.

An enigma indeed.

Entering 2024, Johnson is in a desperate position. His new team, the Carolina Panthers, must show dramatic strides in developing their young franchise quarterback, Bryce Young. Johnson is in a contract year, with a two-year bridge extension off his rookie deal expiring. He will need to prove his production as a potential unrestricted free agent, and at age 29, this is his last chance at securing a large contract.

Fortunately for fantasy drafters, the downsides are fully baked into his cost. His average draft position (ADP) is WR38, driven notably low by an ADP of 128 overall on MyFantasyLeague.com. On most sites, Johnson is available in the seventh round or later. Courtland Sutton may be the only player available later who projects to have as clear a path to leading their team in targets.

Johnson is a must-target in formats that reward points per reception. How can new coach Dave Canales's offense put Johnson in a position to succeed?

The Canales Offense

Canales's rise in the coaching ranks has been meteoric. He spent eight seasons as the Seahawks' wide receiver coach before stepping up to quarterback coach and passing game coordinator. His past two seasons have seen the Seahawks transition from longtime centerpiece Russell Wilson to an excellent season by Geno Smith in 2022, followed by the resurrection of Baker Mayfield's career in 2023.

Bryce Young is the perfect clay for Canales to mold.

Canales's scheme philosophy seeks to simplify decisions for the quarterback. Ideally, making accessible, correct decisions has a snowball effect on a young quarterback's confidence. The Panthers were aggressive in creating an environment conducive to Young's success. In free agency, they signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to a combined $153 million worth of contracts, making Hunt the second-highest-paid guard in the NFL and Lewis the eighth-highest-paid. In the draft, the team tripled down on giving Young weapons, adding wide receiver Xavier Legette after a trade into the first round, running back Jonathon Brooks in the second, and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders in the fourth.

The makeover seeks to transform a dreadful offense that led to Frank Reich's firing after just 11 games.

Johnson is the focal point of the overhaul.

When he arrived, Canales told Johnson: “I'm playing the X. You're gonna be the first read in the progression almost every play. With the unique skill set that you bring to the table, I'm gonna utilize it.”

Canales has emphasized the importance of improving the run game. ESPN's David Newton does a strong job of breaking down what Canales is looking for in an offense. In the piece, Newton pulls quotes from Canales about getting Young moving toward the line of scrimmage and getting the ball out quickly. Young's size (measured at 5-foot-10 pre-draft) was a topic of discussion in his prospect profile and an issue in his rookie season.

Getting the ball out of his hands quickly fits firmly within Johnson's skill set. In 2023, Young struggled with this concept; his 2.5-second pocket time ranked among the top six longest times, and his pressure rate of 24.2% was ninth. Compare that to Mayfield, who was pressured on only 17.6% of dropbacks, the best rate of his career by far, and a number only beaten by six other quarterbacks.

This approach aligns well with Johnson's best season. In 2021, Johnson posted a line of 169 targets, 107 receptions, 1,161 yards, and eight touchdowns. The 2021 season was Ben Roethlisberger's final in the NFL, and Roethlisberger had one of the lowest pocket times in the NFL at 2.2 seconds with a pressure rate of 18.6%.

Johnson has consistently been graded as an elite player in the short and intermediate areas by both PFF.com and Matt Harmon's Reception Perception. 

Conceptually, expect Johnson to see a healthy diet of screens or plays that put Young on the move outside the pocket, with Johnson serving as the primary receiver.

In other words, a PPR smorgasbord. But is Johnson capable of delivering on the need?