Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
Player = recommended contrarian play
Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Jordan Love threw 13 TD passes in the four games following his recovery from an MCL injury. His play dipped in the last two games due to a groin injury which resulted in zero TDs. The Packers' bye week allowed Love time to recover from the groin injury. Chicago has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, but they’ll be without the services of Jaquan Brisker in the secondary and Andrew Billings on the defensive line. The Packers consistently play well against the Bears and Love has averaged 281 passing yards and 2 TDs during his last two games against Chicago.
Jacksonville ranks 31st in the NFL against the pass and allows the most fantasy points to opposing QBs. They allowed their opponent 210 or more passing yards in eight straight games. Jared Goff is facing Jacksonville after his five-interception game last week, which is why he’s available for a contrarian lineup. Goff has thrown multiple TDs in six of his last seven games. The last time Goff faced a pass defense in the same range as Jacksonville was in week six against Dallas, and he threw for 315 yards and three TDs in that game.
Tua Tagovailoa has been solid in his three starts after returning from the concussion. He averaged 224 passing yards and totaled four TDs in those games. Tagovailoa isn’t played at the same level as the last year when he led the NFL in passing yards or in 2022 when he led the NFL in yards per attempt and TDs thrown per pass attempt. The Raiders rank 22nd against the pass and allow the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs. The opportunity is there for Tagovailoa to have a very productive day.
Last week against the second-best pass defense in the NFL, Will Levis completed 78% of his passes for 175 yards and two TDs with 41 rushing yards. The Vikings' pass defense is slightly behind the Chargers, but still a difficult task this week. Levis will have plenty of opportunities to make plays in a likely negative game script. He’s a cheap salary option for a contrarian play but just played his best game of the season. It is a play to consider for one of your lineups.
Isiah Pacheco is still out, which makes Kareem Hunt a valuable option for another week. Hunt has more than 20 touches in six straight games and averaging almost 25 touches per game during that stretch. Buffalo is tied for allowing the third-highest yards per carry to the opponent and the second-most fantasy points to RBs.
Splitting backfield touches with Jahmyr Gibbs has hurt David Montgomery’s production and led to his availability as a contrarian play in DFS. Montgomery has scored eight TDs in nine games this season and only has one game with less than 50 total yards. Last season he scored 15 TDs in 17 games including the playoffs. The floor is high with Montgomery because he’s almost guaranteed a TD every week. The ceiling depends on yardage and the chance of a multiple TD performance. One factor helping the cause is Jacksonville is the opponent and they’re allowing the third-most fantasy points to RBs this year.
Derrick Henry has scored a TD in all ten games this season and scored 14 TDs total. He’s accumulated at least 71 total yards in all but one game and has already amassed over 1100 rushing yards. Henry is .68 YPC over expectation ahead of the second-best RB in the NFL. He is a contrarian option because he’s expensive and Pittsburgh’s run defense ranks fourth in the NFL. Having Henry as a contrarian lineup is something I won’t be able to ignore in a lineup or two this weekend.
D'Andre Swift has six straight games with 17 or more touches and has produced less than 80 total yards in only one of those games. Chicago’s offense has struggled recently and Swift’s production has dipped in the last two weeks. Green Bay ranks 14th against the run and 10th against the pass this season. New OC Thomas Brown is a former RB, which could lead to a focus on the running game.
2024 has been a renaissance for Najee Harris. He’s posted a positive rushing YPC over expectation while being .64 YPC ahead of teammate Jaylen Warren. Before last week, Harris had a three-game streak of rushing for over 100 yards. He’s averaging 19 touches per game and has scored a TD in three of his last four games. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL against the run, which is baked into Harris’ price and ownership percentages.
Darnell Mooney has 54 targets in his last six games and 19 targets in his last two games. Kirk Cousins and the offense are valuing Mooney in the passing game. Mooney has low roster percentages because he plays Denver’s third-ranked pass defense on Sunday. Denver has allowed five of the last six opponents to pass for at least 215 yards with the only non-qualifier being the Spencer Rattler-led Saints. The Broncos’ pass defense was much stronger in the initial four games of the season. Please monitor Mooney’s status for Sunday as he was limited due to an Achilles on Thursday.
Cooper Kupp has played in three games since returning from an injury, he has averaged just under 10 targets per game for over 78 yards. Kupp has a 90% snap share or higher in the last two games and he continues to be a reliable weapon for Matthew Stafford. They’ll face a Patriots defense ranked 26th against the pass, which includes facing some weak passing attacks in the NFL. Stafford should carve up this Patriots' defense and Kupp carries a high floor this week.
Keon Coleman is out, Dalton Kincaid is out, and Amari Cooper is limited in practice. Cooper is likely to play, but he’s trying to learn to catch the football while wearing a cast. Mack Hollins could take advantage of a large opportunity in Buffalo. He’s had two straight games with four or more targets, four or more receptions, averaged 58 receiving yards, and scored one TD. Hollins could be your cheap WR play in one of your lineups.
After taking a game to get settled in, DeAndre Hopkins has averaged 6 receptions for 71 yards and a TD in his last two games with the Chiefs. Hopkins had a solid game last week against a pass defense giving up the least amount of fantasy points to WRs. This week Hopkins will face an easier opponent in Buffalo’s 12th-ranked pass defense. Juju Smith-Schuster’s return is lowering Hopkins’ roster percentage, but Hopkins is a significantly better player.
Tyreek Hill’s wrist injury may require surgery after the season. Hill disclosed that he has to deal with the pain and it will likely continue to get worse. Jaylen Waddle has the most to gain if Hill’s role is reduced in the offense. Waddle’s production has increased recently as he’s had two of his top four receiving yardage games this season within the last three weeks. The Raiders have the 22nd-ranked pass defense, but they’re allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to WRs. Nate Hobbs, starting nickel CB for the Raiders, won’t play on Sunday. Stacking Tagovailoa with Waddle as contrarian plays is enticing this week.
The opportunities have been plentiful for Jakobi Meyers as he’s averaged over nine targets over his last five games, which includes a season-high of 11 in his last game. Meyers is priced too low and has a surprisingly low roster percentage. Miami has the 17th-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The offense around Meyers is subpar, but opportunities are key in DFS. Meyers is one of my favorite contrarian plays this week.
The Browns' passing game has jumped to another level with Jameis Winston at QB. Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy have improved, but David Njoku is the consistent presence. Njoku has 28 targets in the last three games, which has resulted in 20 receptions and two TDs. LB Pete Werner is a game-time decision to see if he’ll play, but the Saints defense is middle of the road in defending against TEs.
After a slow beginning of the season, Mark Andrews has rewarded his loyal fantasy managers with five TDs in his last five games. Andrews has solid production in five of his last six games with the only struggle against Denver’s elite pass defense. Thankfully he’ll face Pittsburgh who’s allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to TEs this season.
I mentioned earlier that Buffalo’s receiver corp was banged up. It will give Dawson Knox an opportunity just as I mentioned for WR Hollins previously. Knox has produced 40 or more receiving yards in two of his last three games, despite Kincaid hogging 23 targets. It would only take a few of those targets to go Knox’s way to provide value as a contrarian play.
Jamaal Williams is out and Kendre Miller is already on IR, which makes Taysom Hill the second and third option running the football. Hill has a minimum of four rushing attempts in five of his six games played this season. However, he’s seen more work in the passing game by averaging 33 receiving yards over his last three games. Hill’s snap share and touches should increase as New Orleans has fewer weapons at RB and with Chris Olave on IR.
Chicago is coming off its worst offensive performance of the season in week 10. They’ve averaged 9 points per game over their last three contests. Chicago is struggling so much offensively that they fired their offensive coordinator this week. Green Bay has won the previous 10 games against Chicago and 19 of the last 21. The Packers have the Bears' number until they don’t. It’s difficult to imagine Green Bay coming off a bye without a great game plan to confuse rookie Caleb Williams.
New England is coming off a 328-yard offensive performance last week, which was the best of the season. They’ve only exceeded 300 yards or more in one other game this season. Furthermore, the Patriots have scored 20 or more points on only three occasions. Rookie Drake Maye has increased offensive production but he’s also partially responsible for turning the ball over four times in the last two weeks. The Rams' defense has improved recently by forcing five turnovers over the last two games and nine turnovers over the last four games. They’ve also two of the last three opponents to under 280 yards of offense.