Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
- Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
- Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Baker Mayfield has thrown multiple TDs in six consecutive games. Most expected his production to fall off without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Tampa Bay threw the football less last week, but Mayfield proved he’s developed into a good QB. Mayfield will face an easier overall defense than the Chiefs in the 49ers, and San Francisco will be without Charvarius Ward, while Nick Bosa is questionable. At home this season, Mayfield has thrown 13 TDs in only five games.
The Saints' defense ranks 13th against the pass, but they don’t resemble the same unit in the secondary. They traded away Marshon Lattimore, recently lost Paulson Adebo to injury, Kool-Aid McKinstry won’t play, and Rico Payton, J.T. Gray, and Will Harris are all questionable to play. Drake London is questionable to play as well, but the Falcons are more healthy. Kirk Cousins has thrown seven TD passes in his last two games and averaging more than nine yards per pass attempt. Cousins should take advantage of the backups in the Falcons secondary.
Chicago has struggled in the last two games, and Caleb Williams was held out of the end zone. The Bears have lost all four road games and Williams has produced only two TDs and turned the football over six times. Meanwhile, they’ve won every home game, and he’s produced seven TDs and turned the football over once. The Patriots' defense has allowed over 335 total yards in the last eight games and ranks 29th against the pass. New England will also be without starting S Kyle Dugger and LB Christian Elliss.
On the other side of the football, Drake Maye has been producing above expectations. He’s averaged 292 total yards in his three full games with seven TDs. Chicago ranks first against the pass, but they haven’t played well defensively the past two games. Maye should have a game script that favors him throwing the football or scrambling.
Brian Robinson Jr won’t play on Sunday. Austin Ekeler has averaged 13 touches and 76 total yards in both of his starts this season. Pittsburgh is allowing the 12th most fantasy points to RBs this season. Ekeler is averaging the third most rushing YPC over expectation in 2024 and will be a high-floor play this week.
Tony Pollard is averaging 21 touches for 95 total yards this entire season. He’s averaging over 23 touches for 106 total yards in his last five games. Pollard is the workhorse for the Titans offense, but he’s low-rostered because of the Chargers' defense, which is a very good unit. They’re the second-best defense overall and sixth-best against the run. However, they’re tied for 20th in yards per carry allowed.
The Tampa Bay backfield is having a changing of the guard. Bucky Irving has had more touches than Rachaad White in each of the last two games. Irving has a better success rate rushing and receiving than White but also is averaging more YPC over expectation. The 49ers' defense ranks 24th in the NFL against the run and is allowing more fantasy points to RBs than the past three teams Irving has faced.
Keon Coleman is out for Sunday with Amari Cooper, and Curtis Samuel is questionable to play. Buffalo could have more of a run-focused gameplan, and James Cook has averaged 16 touches per game this season. The Colts are allowing the 14th most fantasy points to RBs this season. Cook has scored four TDs in his last four games.
Dallas ranks last in the NFL against the run and allows the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs. The Cowboys have lost three straight games and have lost hope after losing Dak Prescott. Saquon Barkley has averaged 166 total yards in the last three games and has only had one game all season with less than 19 touches. Barkley carries an expensive salary, but it’s worth it this week because he should have a massive game against Dallas.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has stepped up in Tennessee to fill the void left by DeAndre Hopkins. Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a TD in four consecutive games. His receiving yardage has increased in four consecutive games and he’s coming off a season-high in receptions, yards, and targets. Westbrook-Ikhine is a cheap contrarian option that helps build stronger options in other roster spots.
Sterling Shepard led all Buccanneer WRs and RBs in targets last week. He’s earned four or more targets in three of his last four games, which reveals rapport being built with the coaching staff and Mayfield. Shepard has also earned six rushing attempts over the last four games and produced 52 yards. Tampa Bay has leaned on Shepard due to WR injuries, which creates a solid floor for a contrarian option.
I’ve previously stated in this article series that Rome Odunze is Chicago's best WR. Odunze’s stats finally back up the claim as he is leading Chicago in receiving yards and yards per reception. Odunze produced his second game this season over 100 yards last week on only seven targets. More opportunities should be coming his way because of efficiency and he’s the big-play producer in the offense. Stacking Williams and Odunze is a big contrarian play against the Patriots’ 29th-ranked pass defense.
Last week was the first game A.J. Brown has produced less than 84 receiving yards this season. Brown averaged 87 receiving yards per game during the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Dallas ranks 24th against the pass, but they’ll be without DaRon Bland on Sunday with Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons as questionable. Brown could be in for a monster game against a depleted Dallas defense.
Terry McLaurin has either scored a TD or produced at least 98 receiving yards in seven straight games. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points during this stretch. McLaurin has consistently produced in the Washington offense and he’s available as a contrarian option because he’s facing a good Steelers pass defense. Two weeks ago, McLaurin produced 125 receiving yards against the best pass defense in the NFL. Don’t hesitate to choose McLaurin during his hot streak.
Picking Jordan Addison this week isn’t a reflection of his recent production. Addison has produced 50 or more total yards in three of his last five games, but he only has two games of over 10 PPR points this season. The Addison decision is centered around the Jaguars defense. Jacksonville’s pass defense ranks 31st in the NFL and they’re allowing the second-most fantasy points to WRs.
George Kittle has averaged six receptions for 77 yards and one TD over his last six games. He’s been even more productive the last two games averaging 110 receiving yards. Kittle has been productive in the absence of Brandon Aiyuk. Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points to TEs this season.
Kyle Pitts fell back to earth last week producing 11 yards on a single target. Previously, he produced 65 or more yards in four straight games and he scored two TDs two weeks ago. Earlier, I discussed the injured Saints secondary and will create better matchup opportunities for Pitts. Stacking Cousins and Pitts would make a bigger contrarian lineup.
Chris Olave won’t play, which leaves Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson, and Taysom Hill as the top options in the Saints passing game. Kendre Miller was recently injured and Jamaal Williams is questionable to play as well. Hill has the opportunity to be heavily involved in the Saints' game plan because they’re running out of options. His value increases because he can carry the football and be a weapon in the passing game.
Cade Otton has earned 10 or more targets in three straight games and averaged 8 receptions for 86 yards and a TD. Otton has been the focal point of the passing game with Evans and Godwin injured. Finding a TE to earn 10 targets and not priced at 8000 makes Otton a gem of a contrarian play.
The Titans haven’t scored more than 20 points in the last four games and only one time this season. They’ve committed a turnover in every game and seven turnovers in the last three games. The Chargers haven’t allowed 21 points in a game this season, only allowed over 17 points a single time, and averaging 12.6 points to opponents. Will Levis is back starting, and he’s thrown interceptions at the highest rate of any starter in the NFL and sacked at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence is trending towards not playing. Ezra Cleveland won’t play on the offensive line. Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, and Devin Duvernay are all questionable. The Vikings' defense ranks fourth overall, even after struggling against the Rams and Lions. They bounced back last week against the Colts, allowing only 13 points, forcing two turnovers, and giving up the lowest amount of yards all season. It’s difficult to envision the Jaguars producing much offense without Lawrence.