Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion, going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
- Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
- Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
C.J. Stroud had one of the worst games of his career last week passing for only 86 yards. Stroud was consistently pressured and completed less than half of his pass attempts. This week Stroud will face a less pressuring defensive front and they have the seventh-worst pass defense in the NFL. Stroud has thrown multiple TDs in every game of his career against the Colts.
Baker Mayfield’s ownership is down because he will be without Chris Godwin for the rest of the season and Mike Evans won’t play this week. Was Mayfield only producing because of them or has he turned a corner in his career? Mayfield is leading the NFL in TD passes, second in passing yards, third in completion percentage, and sixth in passer rating. Furthermore, Mayfield has been on a heater lately. He’s averaging three TD passes and 306 passing yards per game over his last four games. Atlanta is 21st against the pass and Mayfield threw three TDs against them a few weeks ago.
Tennessee ruled out L'Jarius Sneed and traded away Ernest Jones IV earlier this week, both players were some of their best pass defenders. The Titans’ run defense has been a top-five unit this season, while the pass defense ranks 20th. Jared Goff has thrown multiple TDs in four straight games and 280 or more passing yards in each of his last three games. Goff having a big game against a vulnerable secondary is a good bet to make on a contrarian lineup.
Patrick Mahomes II hasn’t thrown a TD since week four and hasn’t thrown multiple TDs in a game since week three. He’s only thrown for 300 or more passing yards in one game this season and he’s tied for the NFL lead in interceptions. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes II is the best QB in the NFL over the last few seasons. This low production isn’t likely to continue, which is what makes him an intriguing contrarian option. The Chiefs recently traded for Deandre Hopkins, who will play on Sunday and should help the passing game. The Raiders are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and Maxx Crosby may not be full strength due to an ankle injury. Mahomes will bounce back soon and the Raiders defense is vulnerable.
In two of his last three games, James Cook has faced two teams with top-five run defenses and he wasn’t productive in those games. In Cook’s other games, he’s produced at least 87 total yards. Cook gets some relief this week by playing a Seattle defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs and allowing 5.0 YPC, which is the fifth most in the NFL. Buffalo has provided double-digit touches to Cook in every game this season and he’s averaging one TD per game. Curtis Samuel missing this game could also provide a few more targets in the passing game in Cook’s direction.
Chicago has the NFL’s top pass defense, but their run defense has been inconsistent this season. It ranks 15th in the NFL but has had true moments of vulnerability and Washington has the best rushing offense in the league. Brian Robinson Jr ranks 11th in the NFL in rushing YPC over expectation and his downhill style will cause trouble for Chicago. Robinson has averaged one TD per game this season and 94 total yards over the initial four games of the season. Robinson missed time due to a knee injury, but he’s no longer on the injury report.
James Conner has earned 100 or more total yards in three of his last four games and had 20 or more touches in each of those games. Conner is the workhorse in the Cardinals' offense on the ground but they’ve averaged four targets in his direction per game in the air over the last three weeks. Conner will face a Miami defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs this season. Miami will be without the services of Zach Sieler for this week, who ranks as PFF’s 17th-best DT.
Rachaad White should see additional targets in the passing game with the receiving options limited in Tampa Bay. White averages almost four receptions per game, while having double-digit carries in all but one game this season. Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker have both had some good performances recently, but White still led this backfield in touches last week. Irving only logged one limited practice this week, which could limit his opportunities as well. White’s rushing efficiency has greatly improved over his last three games from below 3 YPC to over 4 YPC.
Rhamondre Stevenson out-touched Antonio Gibson last week nine to four after some thought he may lose the starting role in New England. Part of the reason is Gibson has averaged 1.4 YPC over his last two games and Stevenson hasn’t fumbled since week four. A healthy run game is essential to taking pressure off of rookie Drake Maye’s shoulders. Stevenson has averaged 14 carries and over three targets per game this season. This is a cheap and low-owned option to allow for expensive players at other spots in your lineup.
Zay Flowers practiced for the first time on Friday, but he’s likely not in top health for Sunday’s game. Rashod Bateman has caught all eight targets in the last two games for 192 yards and a TD. Bateman has four or more targets in all but one game this season and his snap share has been increasing over the last two games. Lamar Jackson and this offense should trust Bateman with more targets. The Browns are in the top third of the NFL in points allowed to fantasy WRs and are likely without a starting safety in this game.
Washington allows the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Their pass defense is weaker than their run defense. Chicago’s offense has been more efficient passing the football than rushing this season. Odunze has 40 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games, which provides a solid floor. However, Caleb Williams has missed an open Odunze for multiple big gains and potential TDs. One of those big plays will hit soon and a vulnerable secondary makes them more susceptible.
Tank Dell dropped a TD and didn’t catch any of his four targets last week as Houston struggled through the air. Stroud needs Dell to win vertically down the field because Stefon Diggs is more of a short to intermediate threat at this stage of his career. The Colts' pass defense ranks 26th in the NFL and Dell has produced a minimum of 59 total yards both times he’s played them. Stroud and Dell are due for a big game like they produced last year and they can be combined in a contrarian lineup as a stack.
The Jaguars are allowing the most fantasy points to WRs this season. Jordan Love leads the NFL in passing TD percentage and Green Bay prefers to pass near the end zone as Josh Jacobs only has one rushing TD on the season. Romeo Doubs has emerged as a consistent option for Green Bay as he’s averaged over seven targets per game in his last three contests.
Both Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are on the injury report but should play on Sunday. However, Doubs could receive an extra target or two just by being more available and healthy.
D.K. Metcalf is doubtful to play with a knee injury. Most are pivoting to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which is why Tyler Lockett is available as a contrarian play and he’s a player who gets ignored too often. Lockett has averaged just under seven targets per game this season, which will increase if Metcalf doesn’t play as he’s averaged over eight targets per game. Geno Smith leads the NFL in pass attempts, completions, and passing yards. The opportunities will be available in Seattle and Lockett is a great contrarian option if Metcalf doesn’t play.
Davante Adams’ first game back with Aaron Rodgers didn’t go according to plan as the Jets lost. However, Adams saw nine targets and appears healthy as he’s not on the injury report. Adams should remain as the top target hog on that offense and things will become more efficient as he learns the offense. Allen Lazard is doubtful to play, which could add more opportunities for Adams.
Evan Engram has caught all 15 targets since returning from a hamstring injury and the acceleration and speed are back in his legs. Engram produced 60 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games of the 2023 season. The Packers’ defense is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs and the game script should favor the Jaguars to pass the football often.
The Houston passing game was off last week against Green Bay. Before last week, Dalton Schultz had four straight games with five or more targets. In five consecutive games, Schultz has been on the field for 78% of the snaps. The opportunity is there for Schultz with Nico Collins not playing and the Colts' defense is allowing opposing TEs to score the fourth-most fantasy points.
Godwin is out for the season, and Evans and Bucky Irving haven’t practiced this week. Tampa Bay’s offense has a lot of open opportunities and targets this week. Cade Otton ranks third in targets on the season, but the top two won’t be playing on Sunday. Otton has rapport with Mayfield and he’ll lean on him more. Atlanta ranks in the middle for points allowed to TEs.
Tua Tagovailoa coming back helps the entire offense. But Jonnu Smith has been the most productive receiver in the last two games earning 158 yards on 12 receptions. Smith has a low cost to roster him, which adds to the intrigue of a contrarian play.
Bryce Young is back starting due to Andy Dalton’s thumb injury. Young has a 49.5 passer rating and 56.9 completion percentage on the season. Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen both are ruled out for Sunday. Denver has the best defense in the NFL and ranks fifth in pressure percentage. It’s tough to envision a scenario where this isn’t a fantastic contrarian play.
Jayden Daniels didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Early reports were he didn’t practice Friday and later HC Dan Quinn indicated he did end up practicing. Is it a smokescreen or did he practice? Chicago’s defense is 3rd in EPA, 1st against the pass, 7th in pressure percentage, T-3rd most turnovers forced, and they haven’t allowed 22 points in 12 straight games. Chicago is coming off a bye week, which helps in preparation and health.