Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
Player = recommended contrarian play
Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
The Chiefs are 5-0, but they’re not dominating opponents. Patrick Mahomes II has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns and they’re missing a few weapons on offense. Sound familiar? Doubting Mahomes and Andy Reid has proved risky in the past because they evolve and find ways to succeed. The 49ers defense is ranked 13th in the NFL and they’ve recently lost star players Javon Hargrave and Talanoa Hufanga, who make this unit more vulnerable than the public perceives. All eyes will be on this game and it could be a high-scoring affair. Mahomes as a contrarian play in this environment is enticing.
C.J. Stroud has thrown six TDs in the last three games and averaging 289 passing yards per game. Last week, Stroud threw a season-high three TDs on only 31 pass attempts on the road. The Packers' defense has improved this season with a focus on creating turnovers. However, they allow the 16th most fantasy points to QBs, and star CB Jaire Alexander has been limited all week in practice with a groin injury. If Alexander can’t play, look for Stroud to take on the challenge of attacking a young Packers secondary playing with a lot of confidence right now.
Josh Allen bounced back from a dip in production to account for three TDs last week against a good Jets defense. Allen has only thrown for over 250 passing yards in one game this season, but he’s reducing turnovers by not throwing an INT in 2024. The addition of Amari Cooper could be huge for Buffalo. Cooper takes the pressure off the rest of this young skill group and gives Allen a true top target. He is expected to play this week and should take less time to get acclimated as he’s a veteran in the NFL. Allen has thrown for multiple TDs in all four games against the Titans historically. The Titans' defense has been good, but L’Jarius Sneed hasn’t practiced this week and is questionable to play with a quad injury.
Joe Burrow threw 12 TD passes against only two INTs and averaged 302 passing yards per game between week two and week five. Burrow’s performance last week against the Giants was subpar. He’ll play a Browns team this week, that is deflated and dealing with injuries. The Browns will be without a starting safety, Denzel Ward has been limited in practice with a hamstring, and multiple other defenders are questionable and on the injury report. Cleveland isn’t the same defense as in 2023. The Browns are the 19th-ranked defense and 19th-ranked pass defense. Burrow has a great opportunity to get back on track this Sunday.
James Cook’s injured toe is improving as he practiced in full on Thursday and should be able to play on Sunday, but please monitor his status. Cook has been a workhorse this season with at least 78 yards in all but one game and averaged one TD per game. Tennessee’s run defense has been solid this season. However, T’Vondre Sweat didn’t practice on Thursday due to a knee injury, Ernest Jones IV is dealing with an illness, and Snead hasn’t practiced all week. Tennessee will be vulnerable if these players don’t suit up or they’re limited.
The Vikings have the best defense in the NFL. They have the top pass defense and the sixth-ranked run defense. This speaks to why Jahmyr Gibbs has a low roster percentage this week. However, the Vikings' defense will be without LB Blake Cashman, and NT Harrison Phillips is questionable to play. Gibbs has 14 or more touches in every game this season. He has scored a TD in over ½ his games and caught at least three receptions in over ½ his games. Gibbs is averaging 0.49 yards per carry-over expectation, which ranks 20th in the NFL and ahead of running mate David Montgomery. This contest has a chance to be high-scoring, but it is a crucial game that could determine the division. Gibbs has a high floor but also possesses a high ceiling if the Lions lean on him to be a playmaker in an important game.
Jordan Mason has been incredible this season filling in for the injured Christian McCaffrey. Mason ranks third in the NFL in rushing YPC over expectation and his lowest yardage total is 82 in a game he only played 18 snaps. People are wary of adding him in lineups due to a concerning shoulder injury. FBG’s injury expert Adam Hutchinson said “Jordan Mason is a risky play. Uncommon to not miss at least one game with an AC Joint Sprain - one of the most often re-injured injuries among RBs.” Not only is Mason banged up, but they play Kansas City, who’s the seventh-ranked run defense. Earlier this season, Mason ran for 100 yards against a Minnesota Vikings defense, which is the best in the NFL. When Mason plays, he produces. The risk is he could be used sparingly or exit the game if he reinjures the shoulder. Mason is a true contrarian play.
Last week, Carolina allowed Atlanta to rush for almost 200 yards in a decisive win. Bijan Robinson finished with 95 rushing yards and Tyler Allgeier finished with 105 rushing yards. Both players were efficient and averaged over 5.7 YPC. Carolina has allowed every opposing team to rush for over 125 yards except for one this season. Three teams have run for 180 or more yards against the Panthers. However, the Panthers’ defense could be worse this week due to injuries to many key contributors. Three of their top four inside linebackers haven’t practiced this week. Starting DE A’Shawn Robinson and starting OLB Jadeveon Clowney haven’t practiced this week as well. Washington is the second-best rushing team in the NFL. Brian Robinson Jr has been limited this week in practice due to a knee injury. Austin Ekeler will have plenty of opportunity even if Robinson plays. Ekeler has 60 or more total yards in every game this season and remains a threat out of the backfield with a minimum of two receptions per game. Ekeler should get more work this week against one of the worst defensive fronts in football.
Jonathan Taylor won’t play this week, while Trey Sermon only logged one full practice due to a knee injury. Sermon is averaging 2.5 YPC on the season and averages -0.5 YPC under expectation via Next Gen Stats. Tyler Goodson has been much more efficient averaging 5.9 YPC the last two games. In the last two games, Goodson has 20 touches compared to 34 for Sermon. However, Goodson has outgained Sermon 122 yards to 92 yards and Goodson has one more reception. Goodson is averaging 6.9 yards per touch, while Sermon is only averaging 2.7 yards per touch. The writing is on the wall for the Colts to give more opportunities to Goodson and his low salary creates a nice contrarian option.
DeVonta Smith has produced at least 64 yards in every game this season. He’s earned eight or more targets in all but one game and that trend should continue with Dallas Goedert not playing this week due to a hamstring injury. Smith has scored a TD in half of his games. The Giants rank 15th in pass defense but could be without pass rushers Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence II who haven’t practiced this week, which would give Jalen Hurts more time to find receivers in the passing game. Adoree’ Jackson missed practice on Thursday and could miss the game as well.
The Dolphins come out of the bye week still without Tua Tagovailoa, which is why Tyreek Hill is available as a contrarian play. However, Hill is coming off his second-best game of the season with 10 targets and 69 yards. The bye week provided the Miami coaching staff time to figure out ways to increase offensive production and the best way is by getting the football in their best players' hands. Miami faces the 25th-ranked pass defense and Hill is due for a big week, even without Tagovailoa.
Darnell Mooney ranks second on the Falcons in most receiving categories, which reveals where he is in the pecking order for the passing game. Mooney snapped a four-game streak of producing at least 56 receiving yards last week and it was his worst production and target game since week one. The Falcons ran all over the Panthers last week and didn’t need to pass much in a blowout win. Seattle’s pass defense will be more vulnerable because both outside starting CBs, Riq Wollen and Tre Bown, haven’t practiced this week. Also, having a piece of a passing game in the highest projected scoring contest is a good decision.
Four of Cleveland’s starting defensive backs are on the injury report. Denzel Ward is working through a hamstring injury, which is not something you want with Ja’Marr Chase coming into town. Both starting safeties missed the last game. Chase is getting into a groove again with four straight games with at least 72 receiving yards and he’s on pace for over 1500 yards. He has a streak of every other game with at least 100 yards and two TDs, which makes him due for a big game this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster returned to the Chiefs with a bang by earning 130 receiving yards on eight targets. He appeared to take over the work over the middle of the field left by Rashee Rice and will likely be his role moving forward. The Chiefs are coming off a bye week, which should help him become more familiar with the playbook and teammates. However, Smith-Schuster popped up on the injury report with a hamstring on Thursday. Please monitor his status over the weekend. Smith-Schuster is a gamble, but his cheap price tag makes him a great contrarian play.
Stefon Diggs has become a steady presence in the Houston Texans’ passing game since Nico Collins was injured. Diggs has earned at least 77 receiving yards in four straight games and has at least six targets in every game this season. The Packers' defense could be without Alexander who’s been limited in practice this week and if he can’t play it would be a big boost for Diggs’ production. This game also has a chance to be a shootout, which could create more passing opportunities.
Colby Parkinson has 20 targets over his last two games with 13 of those targets coming in his last contest. The Rams are coming out of the bye week with potentially Cooper Kupp, but Parkinson should still be highly involved in this offense. Parkinson’s cheap price adds value to his contrarian play.
Rashee Rice’s absence in this offense has ignited Travis Kelce’s usage. Kelce has 19 targets over the last two games, which has created 159 yards on 16 receptions. The 49ers defense downgraded from elite to average last season when Talanoa Huganga was injured and they just lost him for the season two weeks ago. They’ve allowed 23 or more points in ? of their games this season and allowed over 300 passing yards last week.
Brock Bowers is the last skill player standing after the Raiders traded away Davante Adams, Michael Mayer isn’t available, Jakobi Meyers hasn’t practiced this week, and Zamir White has been limited in practice. Bowers has reached double-digit targets in the last two games and it should continue this week. The Rams defense is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to TEs this season.
Dalton Schultz has seen an uptick in targets since the Texans lost Nico Collins to injury. Unfortunately, 34 yards is Schultz’s season-high and he hasn’t reached the end zone. The increase in targets has to involve a breakout game for him soon. This week he’s facing a Packers defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to TEs.
The Browns gave up on the season once they traded away Amari Cooper. Deshaun Watson ranks last in the NFL in QBR and gets sacked at the highest rate in the NFL. The Bengals have a positive point differential, despite their two-win record. They have much more to play for on Sunday and this season. The Browns offense ranks 32nd in the NFL by a wide margin and tied for second to last in the percentage of drives ending with a score.
The Raiders have averaged 16 points per game over their last two contests. They’ve produced 300 offensive yards in only ? of their games. As stated above Adams is no longer on the team, Meyers hasn’t practiced this week, White is limited and they have a QB controversy. The Rams' defense hasn’t played great this year, however, they rank eighth in pressure percentage. They only need to lean on the Raiders to hold them at bay in this contest.