The 2024 season is near and now it’s time to outsmart your opponents. Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you’re taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
The key for charts:
Player = recommended contrarian play
Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Jim Harbaugh has done well with developing quarterbacks in his career from Andrew Luck to Colin Kaepernick to J.J. McCarthy to Josh Johnson at a non-scholarship college. Harbaugh now can work with Justin Herbert who could rival Luck in talent and potential. The Raiders DL could be good in 2024, but not the secondary. I trust Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater to slow down the pass rush more than the Raiders secondary to stop a below-average Chargers receiving group. Also, Herbert’s foot injury appears healed as he’s not even on the injury report.
Dave Canales also has a history of developing and resurrecting quarterbacks. Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield are success stories in Canales’ resume. He took the HC job in Carolina because he believes in Bryce Young. The Panthers acquired Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette to help give Young more weapons but also beefed up the offensive line to give him more time to throw. The Saints' defense is aging and below-average among the NFL, which should favor a surprising week one performance for Young.
It’s tough to count on a rookie QB in week one. However, Bo Nix has looked good in Broncos camp and preseason action. He’s naturally conservative, which is likely a good thing to start his NFL career. Mike Macdonald brought lots of pressure when he was with the Ravens and he could do the same in Seattle, but with worse personnel. If Nix gets the ball out quickly with a conservative game plan, they could take advantage of the pressure packages Seattle will show.
The Minnesota Vikings have ranked top four in the NFL in pass attempts since Kevin O’Connell came to town. Last year they were still pass-heavy despite starting four different QBs. It’s tough to blame O’Connell’s pass-heavy mentality with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at WR. The scheme and talent in Minnesota is the best surrounding of Sam Darnold’s career. The Giants' secondary is a weakness on their team. Volume, talent, and scheme are in Darnold’s favor for a productive game.
The Chase Brown hype of the offseason has led to Zack Moss going under the radar in roster percentages for week one. The Patriots matchup could be a tough one. However, both Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase may not play in this game. If none, one, or both play but are limited, it creates a bigger dependency on the running game to make this offense successful. Moss is a better play in DraftKings than FanDuel due to salary, but the low roster percentage is enticing.
Zamir White averaged over 23 touches per game in the last four games of the 2023 season. The Raiders have a new offensive coordinator, but Antonio Pierce is still the head coach, which gives some comfort to White still being heavily featured. The Chargers were a below-average run defense in 2023, but new coaches and schemes make this an unknown. The game script will likely keep White in the game for a high-floor outcome.
Chicago signed D’Andre Swift on the first day of free agency to a good contract. This reveals intentions for the Bears backfield, especially when this entire regime inherited Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson is dealing with a toe injury. Swift will be the primary receiving back and earn the majority of touches in this backfield. If the Bears offense lives up to the hype, then Swift will pay big dividends. The Titans' new scheme is blitz-heavy, which may lead to more quick passes to Swift out of the backfield.
Seattle was a poor run defense in 2023, but they have a new scheme and some new players who could change those outcomes. However, it does mean Seattle shouldn’t be a tough matchup for Denver in week one. Javonte Williams was inefficient last season, but he’s now two years removed from the ACL injury, and camp news has been positive about him. Williams is cheap, low-rostered, and will see volume in week one. He's one of my favorite contrarian options in week one.
While the excitement for De’Von Achane is warranted, Raheem Mostert is flying under the radar. Mostert has gained over 1900 rushing yards in the past two seasons for Mike McDaniel’s offense. He led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2023 and they have a soft matchup against the Jaguars in week one. Mostert’s price and low rostered percentage make him a juicy contrarian option.
Miami is a high-scoring team early in the season while playing at home. The game script will provide the Jaguars plenty of opportunities to throw the football and for Christian Kirk to capitalize. While the Jaguars drafted Brian Thomas and signed Gabe Davis, they don’t have the rapport Kirk has earned with Trevor Lawrence over the past few years. Kirk only played in 12 games in 2023 but was on pace for another 1100 receiving-yard season. The public doesn’t respect Kirk and you should take advantage. Jalen Ramsey is questionable to play with a hamstring injury.
Justin Fields starting at QB increases my confidence in George Pickens. We saw how much Fields leaned on D.J. Moore for big pass plays to move the offense and Pickens is easily the best weapon in Pittsburgh. Fields also is familiar with playing against Atlanta in week 17 last year. Pickens took a step in his development at the end of 2023, which makes his 2024 prospects exciting. Atlanta was solid against pass catchers last season, but Arthur Smith knows how to capitalize on their personnel.
The Chargers WR1 in 2024 could be Joshua Palmer, who took a step in his development last season. His rapport with Herbert and experience in the NFL gives him the boost for early season production. The Raiders' secondary can be exposed, especially with Herbert at QB. Palmer’s salary makes him one of my favorite contrarian plays in week one.
Chris Olave has earned over 1,000 receiving yards in each of his seasons in the NFL but doesn’t get the same recognition as other young WRs who have been successful. The Saints offense will see a positive change with Clint Kubiak calling plays and Olave will benefit. The competition for targets is low for Olave, which raises his statistical floor.
This play is only if you need a cheap WR option. The Patriots drafted Ja’Lynn Polk 37th overall for a reason and he had some good camp reviews too. The Bengals will likely create a negative game script for the Patriots, which creates more passing situations for Polk to earn targets.
NFL team WR1s don’t make many appearances on a contrarian list, but Courtland Sutton changes that this week. Most are lower on him because of Nix’s first start in the NFL. Sutton caught 10 TDs last year and the biggest target competition in Jerry Jeudy was traded away in the offseason. Denver will need to lean on Sutton to pass the football whether they are winning or losing, which means he’s earning targets.
The Ben Sinnott hype has simmered Zach Ertz’s roster percentage and hype. Ertz is listed as the starting TE and Dan Quinn has been impressed with Ertz in camp. Jayden Daniels could be looking in Ertz’s direction early in the season as a safety valve to keep the chains moving. Ertz can’t move like he used to, but he’s crafty and a big target. Tampa Bay was one of the worst defenses against TEs in 2023.
Hunter Henry is the most trusted piece of the Patriots offense. He should be leaned on in the early part of the season until the younger receivers gain the experience and trust of the team. Henry is a dependable target with a high floor, but a low ceiling. The Bengals' defense was vulnerable at guarding TEs last season. Saving salary to go with a good matchup is a smart play.
Taysom Hill is listed as a TE but an RB for the Saints. He’s a swiss army knife for an offense, that lacks weapons. Hill can run the football, run out of the wildcat formation, catch the football, and throw the football. He’s a good gamble at the TE position whenever he’s decently priced.
The addition of Stefon Diggs has made people fade Dalton Schultz, who gained 635 receiving yards in his first season in Houston. Schultz isn’t going away and already has a rapport with CJ Stroud. The Colts' secondary is a weakness to be exploited and Schultz won’t likely draw their top defenders in coverage.
Nick Chubb is out and starting LT Jedrick Wills is out. Starting RT Jack Conklin is questionable to play. Deshaun Watson hasn’t been healthy throughout camp and hasn’t been good since the 2020 season. It's tough to envision a strong Browns offense when they're missing key starters. Dallas’ defense has the talent to create big plays and control this game.
Chicago became a top-five defense after they traded for Montez Sweat in 2023. They led the NFL in interceptions and held opposing WRs to the lowest EPA on passes over the middle of the field. Meanwhile, Will Levis had the lowest on-target percentage of starting QBs in 2023 by a wide margin. For example, Kenny Pickett was 4.5% more on target than Levis. Due to an injury, DeAndre Hopkins missed training camp and has been limited in his initial practices back with the team. PFF recently ranked Tennessee’s Offensive Line 30th in the NFL. Chicago’s defense also has the home-field advantage.