Primed For Success. Again

The number one receiving option for the best quarterback in fantasy football, not named Patrick Mahomes, is available outside the top 50 in average draft position (ADP). He set the franchise record for tight end receptions in a season as a rookie.

And he might be even better this year.

• Elite quarterback? Check.
• Wide open competition for targets? Check.
• High-end draft pedigree? Check.
• Immediately productive last year as a rookie? Check. 

Offensive Environment

Which team lost the most targets in 2023? Since this is a Kincaid article, you might guess the Bills. However, it was the Chargers, but the Bills were not far behind with 308 targets lost, including receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

This presents ample opportunity.

Diggs accounted for 22% of Josh Allen’s career completions. He will be missed. Davis provided a consistent vertical presence, highlighted by his four-touchdown game against the Chiefs in the 2021 NFL playoffs.

To fill these departures, the team added Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel via the draft and free agency. Coleman, a raw rookie, has drawn comments about the difficulty of adapting to the NFL. Samuel, now in his eighth season, has topped 97 targets and 656 yards only once.

Khalil Shakir is the holdover.

Shakir climbed the depth chart, initially ceding snaps to Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty. After Ken Dorsey's dismissal and Joe Brady's promotion to offensive coordinator, Shakir saw a 70% snap share and a 12% target rate.

These are all receivers, yet this article is about a tight end. What’s the relevance?

Evolving Personnel Packages

Kincaid played 50% of his snaps from the slot, 31% inline, and 18% out wide. Dawson Knox makes this possible. The veteran Knox saw a shift in usage, with his inline-to-slot split moving from 49%-34% in 2022 to 60%-26% in 2023.

The NFL is blending the move tight end with the big slot role to integrate 12 personnel with three receiver sets. These packages create conflicts, putting the run game in favorable situations against nickel coverages while forcing linebackers to cover in space. Kincaid is an archetype for this role, allowing his teammates to serve in more traditional roles.

The team tried to develop Knox as a receiving threat, but he struggled with drops and consistency early in his career. His ADOT dropped from 9.1 in his rookie year (2019) to 7.0 in 2023. He shifted from a downfield threat to a safety valve. Although he graded high as a pass blocker, blocking and catching simultaneously is challenging.

A common narrative is that Kincaid needed Knox out of the lineup for his production to skyrocket. Knox missed Weeks 8-12, which increased Kincaid’s per-game production.

However, diving deeper shows that the narrative is overblown. Three of Kincaid’s four best games came with Knox in the lineup. The stretch after Knox’s return included a blowout win over Dallas, which matched Josh Allen’s rookie debut for the fewest passes thrown in a full game at 15. Removing that two-target, zero-reception game pushes Kincaid to six targets and 50.5 yards per game.

Kincaid’s increased usage coincided with several factors: Brady’s promotion, Stefon Diggs fading out of the offense (from 11.3 targets per game in the first seven weeks to 7.8 after that), and the natural acclimation period for a rookie. These factors contributed to Kincaid's production more than a lack of competition at his position.

Joe Brady’s Scheme

Cover 1’s Erik Turner did a fantastic deep dive on Joe Brady’s offense that is worth checking out.  

On the surface, this offense is loaded with slot receivers, primarily Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid. Brady’s offense is designed to capitalize on these skill sets.

This diagram from Turner shows how this works:

Deonte Harty comes in motion after initially starting outside. Brady’s offense features heavy motion sets, setting up perfectly for Samuel to fill this role. As a college running back, Samuel is a threat anytime the ball is in his hands and set a career-high with 200 rushing yards under Brady as offensive coordinator in 2020. Shakir can work in Diggs’ position in the slot, while Coleman or one of the veteran players can line up outside in Davis’s position.

Kincaid was the target on this play, resulting in a completed pass for a first down. The alignment and motion flooded the front side to Allen’s right, allowing Allen to extend the play and find Kincaid on the back side.

Turner’s breakdown is excellent and showcases how Brady’s scheme utilized Kincaid to great effect, running dagger and crossing concepts to open up pockets where Kincaid flourished.

Proof Of Concept

The NFL operates as a hierarchy, with the Chiefs at the top. Division champions like the Bills and Ravens chase and copy successful concepts. Teams that haven't won their division often build with the goal of reaching that checkpoint.

In fantasy circles, wide receiver discussions around the Chiefs often highlight their lack of standout receivers. However, the team’s scheme has shifted, with second tight end Noah Gray playing 53% of the snaps over the last two years, outpacing the team’s WR3. Gray’s presence has allowed Kelce’s usage to shift from a near-equal split between inline and slot/wide early in his career to a 35% inline and 65% slot/wide split. This shift has kept Kelce at the top of the tight end rankings, enabling him to set career highs in targets, receptions, and touchdowns in 2022.

The Ravens are poised for their own two-tight end shift. Mark Andrews is well established, but Isaiah Likely stepped up when Andrews’ season ended in Week 11 of 2023. Likely’s production over the last six games projected to a 60-reception, 912-yard season. He was TE5 over that stretch, and training camp buzz suggests he will force the Ravens to utilize two tight ends as base personnel.

While the focus is on which receivers will replace the lost production of Diggs and Davis, the more likely reality is that the Bills are adopting a similar approach to other top AFC contenders.

Kincaid’s Production Profile

Bill Groman’s 1,473 receiving yards in 1960 held the rookie record until Puka Nacua surpassed it in 2023. Before 2003, Terry Glenn was the only rookie to top 84 receptions. For decades, decreased production for rookie receivers was the norm in NFL circles. This trend changed recently with players like Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Sam LaPorta posting massive seasons in their rookie year.

This shift has led to an overreaction in fantasy football circles.

Kincaid became the fourth rookie tight end to top 70 receptions in a season, with his 673 yards ranking tenth all-time among rookie tight ends. His 73 receptions set the Bills’ franchise record for tight end receptions in a season. Statistically, Kincaid was one of the best rookie tight ends ever. Yet, on average, he is getting drafted later than 2023’s TE5 Darren Waller was, while Waller was coming off a 388-yard campaign and paired with Daniel Jones. 

Final Thoughts

Too often in fantasy football, we run away from uncertainty when we should be embracing it.

The Bills used significant draft capital on Kincaid in 2023 and demonstrated his potential by making him a featured part of their offense in the second half of the season. Despite narratives with little basis in reality, Kincaid offers managers a rare opportunity to draft a player outside of the top 50 with a legitimate shot at becoming the overall number one in his position. Do not miss this chance.