The flip side of succeeding with undervalued players is failing with overvalued players. They can clog your roster and never seem to match your expectations. Avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to identify players available in the top half of your draft who should underperform their draft position.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
- De'Von Achane, Miami
- Zamir White, Las Vegas
- Kyren Williams, LA Rams
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Overvalued Player Receiving 6 Votes
De'Von Achane, Miami
Jason Wood: Achane was revelatory as a rookie, finishing fourth in fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he only finished RB21 overall because he missed six games; which leads back to the initial concerns about his size (5-foot-9, 188 lbs.) being incapable of sustained NFL success. With Raheem Mostert (21 touchdowns) still on the roster and rookie Jaylen Wright -- who is better suited to be an every-down franchise back -- now in the mix, betting on Achane as anything more than a high volatility RB2 is going to be frustrating this year.
Phil Alexander: Drafting Achane at his current ADP makes me queasy. Missing out on Achane on my fantasy teams also gives me a sick feeling, only slightly less so. While I'm nervous Achane will make me pay for this fade, I can't fathom a repeat of his 2023 efficiency. If he averages nearly eight yards per carry and scores a touchdown on 8.5% of his touches for a second straight year, I'll take my lumps and never doubt the man again. But I'm betting he's not a one-of-one player, the likes of which we've never seen. Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright will steal snaps, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle remain offensive focal points, and even Odell Beckham and Jonnu Smith should command more targets than their predecessors. Drafting Achane at ADP assumes a repeat of unprecedented efficiency while hoping his six missed games last year were a fluke. Red flags abound.
Corey Spala: It is hard to ignore an electric player who garnered 10 or more yards on 22% of their carries in 2023. It is hard to ignore an 11-games-played season, specifically at the running back position (MCL sprain). I would rather select a "safe option" when utilizing a current second-round selection. Last season, you could have drafted Achane in the eighth round. The Achane formula better suits the eight-round investment (or even fifth-round) than the current second-round investment. This is not to mention the presumed involvement of Raheem Mostert and 2024 fourth-round selection Jaylen Wright, who Miami traded a 2025 third-round selection for.
Bob Harris: What are fantasy managers to make of a depth chart with Achane, Raheem Mostert, incoming rookie speedster Jaylen Wright, Salvon Ahmed, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Chris Brooks? We know what Mike McDaniel thinks about adding talent to an already talented pool. As the Miami coach put it: "There's supreme urgency to do right with the ball if you deserve to have it." I love that. I love it more when I know exactly who deserves to have the ball before the games start. Given that uncertainty, I'm not sure we were drafting Achane in the right spot -- well inside RB1 territory -- while Mostert, who scored 21 touchdowns last year, is RB29. Expecting a more robust role for Achane than Mostert seems aggressive. Throwing Wright into the mix could scramble those values even more.
Julia Papworth: As much as I am scared to death to see De'Von Achane on my opponent's roster this season, it is not enough to justify me drafting him as RB8 off the board. To snag Achane, you are looking at second-round draft capital, and I cannot justify it for a player who runs with such speed and reckless abandon that he missed six games last season. Sure, he had four weeks as the RB4 or better, but he had three weeks as RB50 or worse. The Dolphins still have an incredible passing attack and Mike McDaniel loves a multiple-back system - Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are still solid options for the Dolphins. Miami also drafted Jaylen Wright, who has a very similar skill set to Achane, so until I know how the team plans on distributing the workload, I'll be passing on Achane at this cost.
Andy Hicks: The great thing about Achane's rookie season was that it appeared to come out of nowhere and was great to watch. 455 rushing on only 37 carries, with five rushing touchdowns in a three-game stretch early in the season. Add in two receiving touchdowns, and he became an elite running back after five weeks. Then he got injured. Once he returned, he became a mid-range RB2 for the remainder of the season. Not only does Miami return the number two fantasy back of 2023 in Raheem Mostert. Jaylen Wright was drafted in the fourth round to add to the speed machine. Even Jeff Wilson is productive when given opportunities. Achane has to be an absolute freak to live up to his draft slot. Possible, but the odds are he performs significantly under expectations.
Overvalued Player Receiving 4 Votes
Zamir White, Las Vegas
Phil Alexander: There isn't much to like about White outside his presumed workload to start the season. Usually, when lack of competition for touches is the only feather in a running back's cap, he's an easy fade if you don't love his ADP. In White's case, there are additional reasons to let someone else draft him. He profiles as an early-down grinder on a team that figures to play with very few leads. Las Vegas quarterbacks inspire zero confidence they can keep the offense on schedule, which means there aren't many total touchdowns up for grabs. And there are still plenty of viable running backs available in White's ADP range, including Javonte Williams (more talented), Raheem Mostert (elite offense), and Brian Robinson (ascending offense), to name a few. I might even prefer picking Nick Chubb out of the scratch-and-dent bin nearly two rounds later.
Gary Davenport: Maybe White will build on the flashes he showed last year and become the featured back for the Raiders. But even if he does, it will be for an offense with major questions at quarterback that isn't likely to be floating on a tide of positive game scripts in 2024. It's also entirely possible that despite a forgettable 2023 campaign in Minnesota, Alexander Mattison earns a substantial share of the backfield workload in Vegas. If he gets goal-line work, too, White will be cooked as an RB2.
Jeff Bell: White had so many carries in the last month of the season! How can you not love him?! Well, I have seen Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden. In fantasy, we tend to emphasize first and last impressions. White left us with the idea of a bellcow role. Unfortunately, we have seen this before: a back steps up late in a lost season with a lame-duck offensive coordinator and a coach who wants to emphasize physicality. The Raiders drafted Dylan Laube, as pass game specialist as they come. They added Alexander Mattison, who you probably liked last summer. Yes, Mattison struggled in a feature role, but he was productive as a change of pace. If Laube or even Abdullah have a stranglehold on the passing game work and Mattison is at or above a 20% early down workshare, suddenly White is a touchdown-dependent back in an offense we do not expect to score touchdowns. Play likely outcomes. Is it more likely White is a 20+ per game feature back? Or an overpriced cog in a low-upside, three-headed committee. Do you want to ink that into a starting lineup at an RB21 ADP?
Justin Howe: I'm in line with many of my colleagues on White. He's very tempting at this ADP, but I'm willing to bet he dominates team touches in camp, prompting your leaguemates to drive up his price tag. I'm on board with a seventh-round flier on White, a former five-star Georgia recruit who casts a long shadow over this shaky backfield. But come August, he won't intrigue me in the fifth over a guy like James Cook. White carries the profile of a two-down hammer, with just 32 receptions over 69 college & NFL games, and he'll cede ample snaps to Alexander Mattison and company. Even if White runs for 1,200 yards, he'll struggle to bring major value on just 10-15 catches.
Overvalued Player Receiving 3 Votes
Kyren Williams, LA Rams
Phil Alexander: Williams was a league-winner last year as a waiver wire pickup. Don't expect the same this year now that he gets drafted in Round 3. Williams' out-of-nowhere 2023 season proved two things -- he can perform admirably in a bell-cow role for short stretches and predictably break down under the heavy workload. It's only June, and he's already sitting out OTAs with a nebulous foot injury. LA drafted Blake Corum, who they consider a redundant talent. Williams may be the better player of the two, but there is no question Corum is entering the league with a higher pedigree. It's wild to see Williams drafted ahead of Derrick Henry and most of the wide receivers who are usually available in the third round. Hard pass.
Gary Davenport: Williams was a revelation for fantasy managers last year. A legitimate league-winner. Williams went from complete obscurity to over 1,300 total yards and 15 touchdowns in 12 games and more PPR fantasy points per game than any running back not named Christian McCaffrey. But Williams missed five games, Rams head coach Sean McVay has been notoriously fickle with his running backs, and Los Angeles drafted Michigan's Blake Corum in the third round of this year's draft. At RB7, Williams is too rich for my blood.
Chad Parsons: The Rams added more pedigree in the NFL Draft (Round 3) with Blake Corum than Kyren Williams originally obtained. This is worrisome for Williams, who missed time in 2023 with an injury and is already dinged up in the offseason. The risk with Williams is an injury or Corum simply starting hot could cede the starting role to Corum and not look back. Considering Williams' cost among RB1 types, the risk is far greater than other lead backs.
Overvalued Players Receiving 2 Votes
Trey Benson, Arizona
Ben Cummins: Trey Benson is a fun and exciting prospect but he projects to be the clear backup to James Conner as long as Conner stays healthy. There's no denying Benson has exciting contingent upside. Still, he has no business being drafted ahead of legit fantasy football contributors such as Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson Jr., and Tyjae Spears.
Bob Harris: It's no secret I'm a sucker for size and speed. The 6-0, 216-pound Benson is one of three backs to run a sub-4.4 in the 40-yard dash at the combine (4.39). But the landing spot doesn't offer a clear path to workload. Even though starter James Conner will be 29 next season, the veteran is coming off a 1,000-yard season and appears to be locked into a lead role again this season. That said, Conner had just 165 yards receiving on 27 catches. So, as ESPN.com's Josh Weinfuss suggested, Benson's best bet to get on the field this season is on third downs. While an injury to Conner could change all this, Benson's price doesn't align with the anticipated role -- especially with players like Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson Jr., Tyjae Spears, and Gus Edwards, players I expect to have more robust roles -- all going later.
Jonathon Brooks, Carolina
Jason Wood: I'll listen if you want to sell me on Brooks' long-term value as a dynasty asset. But drafting him as an RB2 this year is a risky proposition. He's coming off a torn ACL, and we don't know how much he can participate in Panthers training camp. Even if he does, he's landing on one of the league's worst teams with a bad offensive line, major questions at quarterback, and a new offensive system. Betting on a downtrodden franchise with so many uncertainties rarely works out. While it's not impossible, it's improbable. That's to say nothing of incumbent Chuba Hubbard, who deserves a role as either the lead back or a heavy-usage No. 2.
Corey Spala: Carolina is looking to find their identity. New coaching staff presumably to develop Bryce Young, why would they rush their second-round selection coming off an ACL tear in November (2023). Presumably, undergoing surgery roughly a month after, when the ACL recovery will officially start. Long-term I am invested in Brooks, however, I am tempering expectations for the 2024 season. I understand looking for the running back sleeper outside the early rounds, I just am risk averse given his ACL recovery and his team's 2024 outlook.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh
Gary Davenport: Yes, Harris has gained 1,000 rushing yards in all three professional seasons. But he's done a lot of that falling forward—2023 was the first time he gained four yards a carry in a season, and he barely cleared the mark last year. Jaylen Warren has become a bigger part of the Steelers offense, and for good reason—he's a more dynamic and explosive player than Harris. Period. Last year, Warren outscored Harris in PPR points, although neither cracked the top 25. That gap is going to widen in 2024.
Justin Howe: Three years in, and it's felt like seven. We've yet to see any greatness from the plodding Harris; nothing that suggests this kind of value, at least. He's produced just 3.9 yards per rush over those 3 seasons, and he still struggles to find the end zone (a weak 2.6% touchdown rate on the ground). He's a decent tackle-breaker, but guess what? Teammate Jaylen Warren, who brings much more explosiveness to the table, broke tackles at an even better rate in 2023! Harris continues to look like a wearied back at the end of the line. But he's only 26, and he's looked that way since he was 23.
Javonte Williams, Denver
Jason Wood: Sean Payton is rebuilding the Broncos from the ground up, so I'm confused by why we're excited about Williams, whom Payton inherited. He finished RB34 last year on a per-game basis and has done nothing in three seasons to stake a claim to be part of the new foundation. Rookies Audric Estime and Blake Watson are credible alternatives and should be expected to get every opportunity to carve out roles. Williams' injury history was strike one. His complete lack of explosive plays or instinctive film last year was strike two. Barring a pristine training camp, I wouldn't be surprised if Williams is, at best, the lead back on a committee with a quarterback in Bo Nix, who is more likely to scramble when pressured than check down to the running backs.
Chad Parsons: Javonte Williams first needs to get healthy and show the movement he once did early in his career. Secondly, Williams has one of the deepest running back depth charts in the NFL in Denver as competition with Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, and now Audric Estime and Blake Watson added as rookies. Williams was a part of a massive committee last year and priced in the zone as if he has a firm lead for the most touches (or even more than 50% of the backfield) to open the season. Neither is true for Williams.
Bonus Overvalued Players
In addition to the seven overvalued running backs listed above, these players got a single vote each.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland
Bob Harris: Chubb underwent two surgeries after suffering a devastating knee injury last September. The first repaired the medial capsule, meniscus, and MCL in late September, and the second repaired the ACL in November. Chubb, who has started running, told reporters this week there's no timetable for his return. The Browns have referred to his possible return window as "at some point in 2024." Meanwhile, the Browns signed D'Onta Foreman to pair with Jerome Ford until Chubb returns. Chubb's upside makes him viable (albeit not necessarily desirable to me) at this price in best-ball. But until I have a better feel for that timeline, I'll be dialed back in regular re-draft leagues.
James Conner, Arizona
Andy Hicks: The Cardinals have a nice stable of backs to cover the likely games James Connor will miss in 2024. He averages more than three games missed a season, with four each over the last two years. At age 29, Conner will have his chances, but over the full season, he becomes a risk for your fantasy roster. Arizona invested a reasonably high pick in Trey Benson. Michael Carter came over from the Jets. Emari Demercado also produced solid numbers on his 79 touches last year for the team. Conner has had a great career, but it is time for it to wind down.
James Cook, Buffalo
Jeff Bell: I was extremely bullish on Cook in 2023. An RB22 ADP and a potentially clear backfield in a high-end offense will do that. Cook delivered, placing RB11 per game through Week 15 before a quieter end of the season. Now you get to pay an RB14 price tag. We do not hate players. We hate values. The team wanted a power compliment in 2023, cycling through Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, and Leonard Fournette with nothing sticking. They drafted Ray Davis, a back who specializes in physicality. This is another ceiling pick unless Cook's red zone role changes dramatically.
Austin Ekeler, Washington
Chad Parsons: Brian Robinson is the best backfield mate for Austin Ekeler in quite some time. Ekeler was ground down with the Chargers as their search for an RB2 proved difficult over the prime years of Ekeler. The biggest gripe with Ekeler will be the lack of upside considering a rookie quarterback plus Robinson can handle all the goal line and higher-volume work as a prototypical lead back profile. Unfortunately, Ekeler is being drafted in a zone where lead backs with RB1 upside still reside.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore
Jeff Bell: At first glance, Henry upgrading from the Titans' 2023 offense to potentially one of the best in the NFL in Baltimore is a massive win for fantasy. But the picture starts to change when working through the numbers. Henry finished as RB15 on a .5 PPR basis in 2023, splitting work with rookie Tyjae Spears in a straight rushing / receiving role split. While the other backs on the Ravens roster do not excite in the same way as Spears, Henry now needs to split the rushing work with Lamar Jackson. While we may not like the Ravens' satellite backs, they seem to like them. Keaton Mitchell could miss a significant portion of the season, but the team used a top-20 visit and eventually drafted Rasheen Ali. Meanwhile, Justice Hill is long past any expected breakout, but the team views him as a valuable component of their roster, and he is likely to see enough involvement to be frustrating. Add in an offense unlikely to rise from the league average in running back passing involvement, and Henry suddenly becomes touchdown-dependent. He can rush for 25 touchdowns and make this look foolish, but Gus Edwards ran for 13 in 2023 and still could not crack RB2 status. Henry is likely drafted at his ceiling.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay
Julia Papworth: I was all about Josh Jacobs heading into last year after his 2022 season, where he finished as RB3 and had over 1600 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns, and 53 receptions for 400 yards. Unfortunately, his success was not duplicated last year, as he finished as the RB27. Jacobs should still get the volume in Green Bay, but he is 26 years old, and I am nervous about the possibility of a bounce-back season. Rookie MarShawn Lloyd also joins the team, and the Packers are spoiled for choice with the pass catchers on a team that throws way more than Jacobs' former team, the Raiders, did. I think 2022 is the best season we will ever see out of Jacobs, and RB11 is too rich for me this year.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati
Jason Wood: I'm perplexed at the fantasy community's excitement for Zack Moss. He's a 27-year-old journeyman signed to his third team in five seasons. The entirety of the excitement comes from a four-game stretch last year as the emergency starter in Jonathan Taylor's stead. Moss was RB4 over that span (517 yards, four touchdowns). But he was only RB32 later in the season for another 3-game stretch in Taylor's place. Now he's signed to what's effectively a 1-year, $3 million deal and has to compete against the more talented incumbent in Chase Brown. Could Moss be the starter? Sure, but I don't see him providing more than league-average efficiency on a per-touch basis in the best-case scenario. He's a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency RB3 this year.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle
Chad Parsons: Kenneth Walker III has yet to hit a big peak, and Zach Charbonnet proved to be a significant hindrance in 2023, forming a big committee. At a minimum, expect Walker's receiving work to be squeezed and an elite season to be only possible if Charbonnet is out a significant stretch, all of which is strange to require out of a mid-teens price tag at the position for Walker.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh
Andy Hicks: There were times last season when Jaylen Warren looked like a starting running back. A three-game stretch against the Titans, Packers and Browns produced 318 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Quick math tells us he recorded 466 rushing yards in his other 14 games. That is an average of 33 yards a game. He will get receptions and carries in every game, but his current draft slot expects starter status. He will present as a flex option, not the starter currently expected. Najee Harris is the clear starter. His production to close the season indicated that. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will lean on Harris heavily.
