Teams with uncertain backfields are a mix of fool's gold and 24-karat championship goodness. Buy into the wrong situation, and you might be left holding Cam Akers. Avoid a team completely; you could see Rachaad White leading your rival to a championship.
This season, there are a handful of teams providing you with the chance to find running back gold: the Bengals, Commanders, Chargers, and Raiders.
Our staff looks at these four backfields and breaks down how they see the work getting divided. You'll know who to target in redraft and for dynasty leagues. (Sometimes, it's not the same player.)
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Uncertain Backfield: Las Vegas
Hutchinson Brown - Zamir White is on a solid offense with a run-heavy scheme and it's clear he is liked by the team. As long as his ADP doesn't skyrocket and stays relatively cheap, he's worth the risk for dynasty managers, given that the workhorse opportunity is right in front of him. He was a later-round pick with little commitment to him from Las Vegas, so I'd expect his future beyond 2024 to be gloomy unless he absolutely crushes this season. If that's the case, we may have the new workhorse for Las Vegas.
Jeff Bell - The Raiders’ running back room looks straightforward on the surface. Zamir White had a three-game sample of 20-plus rush attempts. But a new offensive coordinator brings new concepts and player usage. In 2023, Luke Getsy leaned into the dreaded three-headed monster, running Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, and Roschon Johnson in a rotation. The Raiders added Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube via free agency and the draft. Huh? Mattison was disappointing in 2023, getting his opportunity to lead the Vikings backfield after Dalvin Cook’s departure. But in the past, Mattison has been an effective back in a rotation. Laube is one of the better pure receiving backs to come through the draft. White is still the player you want in a redraft league, but Laube is very interesting in PPR formats and as a dynasty piece. White sitting at a top 20 dynasty valuation is aggressive. Do not be surprised to see the pie split in multiple directions.
Uncertain Backfield: Cincinnati
Jason Wood - Zack Moss is the running back worth drafting first in redraft leagues, as he sits atop the depth chart and has a contract that looks "starting caliber" for 2024, at least. But he’s been a middling player for most of his career outside of a small window last year in Jonathan Taylor’s stead, and I have zero faith in his long-term value. I suspect the Bengals’ next great dynasty tailback isn’t on the roster and will come via next year’s draft (or later).
Matt Montgomery - In a redraft league, the safest player to draft on this team is Zack Moss. Moss has shown the world he can be a bellcow back when given the opportunity. Last season, in relief of Johnathon Taylor, Moss burst onto the scene with his best career season. He was brought in to help the Bengals fill the void of Joe Mixon, and I believe Moss will likely be the goal-line back and get the first crack as an every-down back. In Dynasty, however, I do like both Moss and Chase Brown. Moss has experience but is just 26 years old, while Brown is 24 and showed brief flashes of electric running. Brown will likely be the more boom-or-bust player. I expect both to bring value to your rosters in the future.
Uncertain Backfield: LA Chargers
Ryan Weisse - In redraft, give me all of the Gus Edwards. Do you want to talk about uncertainty? His primary competition, J.K. Dobbins, has played just 24 games in four seasons as a pro. Edwards matched Dobbins' career rushing in his 2023 campaign. The Chargers will run the ball a lot, and Edwards will likely handle the lion's share of those carries. Plus, he has a nose for the endzone. He'll fall in drafts due to his age and the questions surrounding the Chargers offense, but Edwards will end up as a massive value at ADP.
Leo Paciga - Gus Edwards is a player I want to add, regardless of format. He is undervalued and overlooked at the moment - creating a nice acquisition window when comparing opportunity and possible productivity to cost.
Uncertain Backfield: Washington
Andy Hicks - A player I see as a great value in Brian Robinson Jr. Yes, the team signed Austin Ekeler, but he is - or perhaps was - an elite running back without a 1,000-yard rushing season. That will not change in Washington. Robinson will approach or exceed 200 carries and go close to double-digit touchdowns. He wore down towards the end of last season, but after 10 weeks was the fifth-ranked fantasy running back. Ekeler is a better complement than Antonio Gibson, but Gibson was a decent player for the Commanders in his own right. At age 29, Ekeler will be the primary pass-catching back and get key carries. Robinson will get the bulk of carries. Unlike the other situations present, Washington has a clear pecking order, with the bottom of the depth chart unlikely to figure prominently. In both dynasty and redraft, I am a big fan of Robinson.
Leo Paciga - Like Edwards in Los Angeles, Austin Ekeler is a target in redraft and dynasty leagues. And I'll word-for-word repeat what I wrote for Edwards, Ekeler is undervalued and overlooked at the moment - creating a nice acquisition window when comparing opportunity and possible productivity to cost.
