There are reasons why a tight end will bust or will not meet expectations of draft cost. Their draft cost is too high, they may not offer the upside desired, or they are not a top target on their team.
When plenty of sleeper tight ends are available - not to mention high-rated players who should meet expectations - there is no reason to overspend for a tight end who will likely fail to deliver value.
Let’s identify the tight ends within the Top 15 drafted who fit at least one of these criteria:
- High draft cost
- Little to no upside
- Not a top target on their team
Highly Rated Tight Ends to Avoid
High Draft Cost: Sam LaPorta, Detroit – TE2
LaPorta is being drafted as the TE2, three spots behind the TE1. I am not optimistic drafting LaPorta at the 30th overall selection will offer league-winning upside. He was being drafted at TE18 in 2023. His ADP has exponentially risen to a cost. Here are where his 239.3 points would finish overall:
- 2022: 37th
- 2021: 43rd
- 2020: 43rd
- 2019: 42nd
LaPorta will need to sustain similar efficiency, which resulted in him finishing as the 43rd overall player in 2023 or the 27th overall non-quarterback. It is not realistic to expect LaPorta to score 10 touchdowns again. Travis Kelce has done this three times in his 10 career seasons, while George Kittle has done it once in seven seasons. LaPorta was 71st overall in points per game, or 68th if removing anyone under five games played. I understand the desire for a top-tier starting tight end. I am out at LaPorta’s cost; the expectations are too high.
Low Upside: Jake Ferguson, Dallas – TE9
Dallas’ offensive situation has not changed since 2023. They did not add significant target competition. The offense finished with the fifth most yards in the NFL and was third in passing yards. The stars aligned for Ferguson, yet he finished as the TE9. He had the seventh most targets and ninth most receptions. Ferguson finished as a weekly TE1 in 59% of games; only one game over 20 points and two over 15 points. He offers a low ceiling due to his athletic ability. Volume is important to chase, and there is no denying Ferguson will provide a similar upside as his TE9 finish this season. He was drafted as the TE24 in 2023 and finished as the 97th overall scorer. He is currently drafted at 81st overall. I am not confident Ferguson will deliver the upside desired at cost.
Not a Top Target: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia – TE12
Goedert is battling for targets against A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and potentially Saquon Barkley. There simply are not enough balls to make Goedert a top target in Philadelphia. In 2023, Goedert had an average target distance (aDOT) of 5.4 yards, 31st among tight ends. He had a weekly TE1 finish in 29% of games. Philadelphia has a new offensive coordinator and could implement a change in usage. Kellen Moore’s 2023 tight end averaged a 4.0 target distance. Plenty of tight ends will finish within the range of outcomes Goedert will produce, especially at a later cost. I am not interested in wasting a low-ceiling selection to fill a starting position needed at his cost.
Not a Top Target and Low Upside: Dalton Schultz, Houston – TE14
Schultz is battling for targets against Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell. Being the fourth target option is not desired. If a tight end is not a top target, we hope they are a red zone threat. Schultz had the 13th-most targets within 10 yards of the goal line and 28thmost targets within 5 yards. The verticality of the wide receivers may open the intermediate field for Schultz, but I am not salivating over the presumed three receptions for 30-yard games. Schultz averaged 3.9 receptions for 42.2 yards per game with Collins and Dell, and now Diggs will negatively affect the target share for Schultz.
