There are NFL teams that have a ton of uncertainty in their wide receiver corps. Admittedly, solving the riddles these teams have presented is difficult. It's a common strategy to avoid making these decisions. After all, if you don't decide, you can't be wrong. And being wrong gives you a losing team.
But you also can't be correct. And being correct makes you more likely to have a league-winning roster. To quote Ricky Bobby:
Three teams are giving us a chance to make first-place decisions. Our staff is here to look at these teams and determine how their uncertain WR rooms will shake out, both for redraft and in dynasty leagues.
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Uncertain WR Room: Houston
Hutchinson Brown - The Texans have one of the most talented wide receiver trios in all of football; out of these three, I want Tank Dell. C.J. Stroud told this team to draft him; every time Stroud talks about Dell, it's always so positive that it's clear that Dell is one of his favorites. Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs are great. But it's clear Dell and Stroud have a very strong relationship, and I expect Dell to lead the team in receiving by year's end, assuming he is healthy. He was on pace for 1,000 yards as a rookie; I'm looking for even bigger things from him in 2024.
Jason Wood – This is an incredibly fluid situation, and I have low confidence in my Texans model right now because Stefon Diggs is arguably the best receiver on the roster. Further, the Texans know they can’t turn him into a complementary piece if they hope to keep him happy and not problematic in the locker room. On the other hand, Nico Collins and Tank Dell proved last year they’re more than capable of offensively being fixtures for years to come. For now, I’m giving the edge to Diggs (125 targets) over Collins (118) and Dell (107), and frankly, the ultimate winner here probably comes down to which receiver stays healthy. From a dynasty lens, I prefer Collins. Of the two young receivers, Collins is more versatile and durable.
Uncertain WR Room: Green Bay
Jason Wood - I have Jayden Reed leading the way with 105 targets, although I also have Christian Watson (90) and Romeo Doubs (85) closely behind. Reed looked the most impressive to me last year. Yes, Doubs slightly out-targeted Reed, and both had eight touchdowns, but Reed had a 68% catch rate and showed more route versatility. All of these guys are young (23 or 24 years old), but the time will quickly approach when the Packers need to commit to one or two of them financially.
Leo Paciga - This is an offense I want to invest in, but I want the best price point regarding acquisition cost, especially because the top four WRs on this roster are all close when looking at the future trajectory. My best guess is Jaydeen Reed will lead the team in targets in 2024, but Dontayvion Wicks is the wide receiver I’d look to add in dynasty. Wicks is ranked behind Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs on most consensus value boards. Still, his 50.5% win rate against man coverage (fourth overall), his overall skill set, and the fact he had at least four targets in eight of his final nine games all tell me he’s the WR to roster when factoring upside vs current acquisition cost.
Uncertain WR Room: LA Chargers
Ryan Weisse - Joshua Palmer seems heavily underrated. Most would put him behind Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston in their dynasty rankings, which is fair, but in 2024, he could be the No. 1 receiver in Los Angeles. He has played with Justin Herbert longer than anyone else on the team, and with that comes familiarity and trust. While the young receivers learn the game, Palmer will be a step ahead. In dynasty, I'll still lean toward McConkey for the long run, but if I can get Palmer cheap or even off waivers, he can potentially be a fantasy team's WR3 in 2024.
Andy Hicks - The Chargers are one of the most fascinating teams this season, with the return of Jim Harbaugh to the NFL. All skill positions, from Justin Herbert to the tight end room, are interesting from a fantasy perspective. The wide receiver room is the most captivating situation for the entire team. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams gone, who, if anyone, can be the WR1? Will we have many guys around the 400-500 yards for the season? In reverse order of fantasy expectation, Brenden Rice has the name recognition, but making the roster will be his best result. D.J. Chark Jr is a player I have a lot of time for. But on his fourth team in four years and with only one decent fantasy season in six years, hope is probably all you have. Joshua Palmer has been average from a metrics perspective in his first three seasons. He does not seem to have the upside to be anything more than a career WR2/WR3 at his best. Ladd McConkey does have the upside to be very productive in the NFL, but despite being a high draft pick he lacks size and the ability to break open a defense. Reliability is his calling card and he will definitely be fantasy useful over his career, but a WR1, probably not. That leaves the massive disappointment from the rookie wide receiver class of 2023, Quentin Johnston. A new coach and scheme for a young receiver can be a major detriment. In the case of Johnston, it could have the opposite effect. How quickly he has developed from his rookie season will determine if he is the future WR1 for this team or a major bust. I will take the chance on him utilizing his perfect WR frame to its maximum potential.
Matt Montgomery - Everyone is selling their chargers passing offense stock, but I keep buying it cheap! Coach Jim Harbaugh is creating a new mentality for this team, and offensively, they're leaning into a more slow and concise type of play. While that may scare some, I believe it will open up opportunities for massive PPR upside for players like Ladd McConkey. He is my prediction for leading his position in targets and the player I most like in dynasty formats. This is a room of barely recognizable names and second- and third-chance players. Harbaugh had a blank slate to build with players he wanted and selected McConkey with his second available pick.
