It's hard to believe that the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. This year, I published my first set of full projections at the end of February, which means I've been forecasting this season for over six months. Much can change in six months; that's like a decade in NFL parlance. So, before you finish the draft season, I wanted to share with you the players who have changed my mind and why.
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The Wide Receivers Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Mike Evans (ADP: WR15) is going to end his 1,000-yard streak.
- Cooper Kupp (ADP: WR16) is preferable to Puka Nacua (ADP: WR8).
- Brandon Aiyuk (ADP: WR17) is signed, sealed, and ready to deliver.
- Malik Nabers (ADP: WR23) is a must-have player at his cost.
- Tee Higgins (ADP: WR27) makes a great option in the fifth round.
- George Pickens (ADP: WR28) will have a massive target share.
- Terry McLaurin (ADP: WR29) is the alpha, by default.
- Rashee Rice (ADP: WR33) is back in the circle of trust.
- Calvin Ridley (ADP: WR34) deserves more respect.
- Jayden Reed (ADP: WR36) isn't the Packers No. 1 option.
- Rome Odunze (ADP: WR39) is going to outperform Keenan Allen (ADP: WR30).
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP: WR40) will be the Seahawks best receiver.
- Ladd McConkey (ADP: WR42) isn't going to be a standout.
- Jordan Addison's (ADP: WR43) low ADP is warranted.
- Jameson Williams (ADP: WR46) could be the best value on the board.
- Brian Thomas Jr. (ADP: WR47) warrants more excitement.
- Khalil Shakir (ADP: WR52) is the Bills receiver to target.
- Jahan Dotson (ADP: WR64) bring valuable depth to Philadelphia.
- Ja'Lynn Polk (ADP: WR68) should be the best of the bunch in New England.
- Ray-Ray McCloud (ADP: WR101) won the slot job in Atlanta.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay
Mike Evans (ADP: WR15) is going to end his 1,000-yard streak.
What I Thought: Mike Evans has an astounding ten straight seasons of at least 1,000 yards and is coming off one of his career-best seasons (79 receptions for 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns). With the entire offensive cast returning intact, he's a safe bet to deliver WR1 value yet again.
What I Think: Call this a vibe check, but I'm beginning to doubt the Buccaneers can repeat last year's success without Dave Canales calling plays. The new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, is a far cry from Canales, and we've seen Baker Mayfield play poorly when he doesn't have a masterful play-caller spoon-feeding him. I think Tampa Bay is on a shortlist for teams set to take the biggest fall, which likely means Evans' streak ends.
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams
Cooper Kupp (ADP: WR16) is preferable to Puka Nacua (ADP: WR8).
What I Thought: Cooper Kupp was hitting the age cliff and was hurt last year, and Puka Nacua took over as the new alpha receiver in Los Angeles.
What I Think: While Nacua remains a compelling asset in his own right, he missed a chunk of the summer, and Kupp was back to his old self. Not only was he healthy, but he looked like the best player on the roster again.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco
Brandon Aiyuk (ADP: WR17) is signed, sealed, and ready to deliver.
What I Thought: Brandon Aiyuk would put up numbers no matter where he ended up, but the uncertainty of his 2024 team made drafting him at ADP a risky proposition.
What I Think: Despite all the back and forth, Aiyuk ultimately signed a new four-year, $120 million extension to remain a key part of the 49ers' dynamic offense. He's perfectly fine to target at ADP.
Malik Nabers, NY Giants
Malik Nabers (ADP: WR23) is a must-have player at his cost.
What I Thought: While we knew Marvin Harrison Jr. was going to be funneled a disproportionate number of targets from Kyler Murray in Arizona, Malik Nabers had a longer path to stardom because the Giants are a team still searching for an identity and, more importantly, a good quarterback.
What I Think: Daniel Jones is still a bottom-five starting quarterback, but he's healthy, and the rest of the Giants roster leaves much to be desired. Meanwhile, Nabers has been lights out all summer and is easily the best offensive player on the roster. He should be in line for massive target volume, allowing him to push for top-15 honors as a rookie, even if the targets aren't always high value.
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati
Tee Higgins (ADP: WR27) makes a great option in the fifth round.
What I Thought: Higgins is a good player, playing for a new contract, but is second fiddle to Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals will be incentivized to work Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton into the rotation in preparation for 2025 and beyond.
What I Think: Not only is Higgins a good player, but he's also a borderline great player, and Chase's faux holdout this summer reminded us that Higgins can be a genuine alpha when given the opportunity. With Chase's unsettled situation, Higgins should easily eclipse his ADP and deliver top-20 numbers as long as Joe Burrow stays healthy.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh
George Pickens (ADP: WR28) will have a massive target share.
What I Thought: The Steelers are rebuilding the offense from the ground up, with a new play-caller and new quarterback(s), which added risk to Pickens at his draft cost. The unending Brandon Aiyuk rumors also made Pickens risky because the offense can't support two fantasy-caliber receivers weekly.
What I Think: Aiyuk re-signed with the 49ers, and we've seen that the receiver depth chart is abysmal after Pickens. As long as he's healthy, he's going to see a 25%-plus target share, which is more than enough to justify his draft cost, even if Pittsburgh doesn't throw at high volume.
Terry McLaurin, Washington
Terry McLaurin (ADP: WR29) is the alpha, by default.
What I Thought: A new coaching staff, a new quarterback, and a new system all meant McLaurin would have another good but not great year, particularly if Jahan Dotson bounced back with a strong camp and rookie Luke McCaffrey caught on quickly.
What I Think: Jahan Dotson was traded to the Eagles, McCaffrey can't break into the top four, and the projected No. 2 and No. 3 are Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown. Also, Jayden Daniels has a penchant for zeroing in on his first read, which means McLaurin will see a ton of volume regardless of the game script.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City
Rashee Rice (ADP: WR33) is back in the circle of trust.
What I Thought: Rashee Rice was a rollercoaster this year. In February, I saw him as an obvious breakout candidate capable of pushing into the Top 12 if everything fell into place. Then legal issues arose, and the team signed Marquise Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy. Rice's once-promising outlook was dimming.
What I Think: The legal wranglings appear to have turned in Rice's favor, with most believing he won't face a suspension this season. Marquise Brown is also hurt and already out for Week 1, at a minimum. Rice is back as one of the more likely breakouts to target.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee
Calvin Ridley (ADP: WR34) deserves more respect.
What I Thought: Ridley was inconsistent in Jacksonville, and the Jaguars made no effort to re-sign him, instead signing Gabriel Davis and drafting Brian Thomas Jr. The Titans, a franchise without a clear direction, signed him to an above-market deal but were going to ask him to share the spotlight with DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Boyd.
What I Think: Hopkins is hurt, and Ridley finished WR17 last year despite his ups and downs. He's likely to see a similar target share in Tennessee, particularly given the team's financial commitment to him, yet is being drafted five or six rounds later than his 2023 finish.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay
Jayden Reed (ADP: WR36) isn't the Packers No. 1 option.
What I Thought: Jayden Reed was the top playmaker on the Packers last year as they vaulted into NFC contention. When a rookie has that kind of performance, it stands to reason the arrow is pointed up and to the right in Year Two.
What I Think: A deep dive into the Packers receivers illustrated that unless Reed is going to be moved out of the slot role, he's not going to be on the field enough to outperform last year's numbers, particularly given the likelihood of touchdown regression.
Rome Odunze, Chicago
Rome Odunze (ADP: WR39) is going to outperform Keenan Allen (ADP: WR30).
What I Thought: The Bears are all-in on giving Caleb Williams everything he needs to succeed in Year 1, and that included signing DJ Moore to a massive extension, trading for perennial Pro Bowler Keenan Allen, and drafting Rome Odunze in the Top 10. Odunze has a glistening future, but 2024 would be a transitional year in deference to the veteran receivers atop the depth chart.
What I Think: It's dangerous to discount Keenan Allen, given his storied career, but he did not make an impact this summer and even called attention to his own sluggishness. Meanwhile, Odunze was a sponge, built rapport with Williams, and looks ready to be Moore's running mate while Allen plays the role of high-end No. 3 and locker room mentor.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP: WR40) will be the Seahawks best receiver.
What I Thought: Last year was a bonanza for rookie receivers, which made Jaxon Smith-Njigba's debut feel even worse than the final numbers suggest. He caught 63 passes for 628 yards and four touchdowns, finishing as the 51st-ranked fantasy receiver. A new offensive coordinator opens the door for a big leap in Year Two, but with Seattle opting to retain Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf remaining the No. 1, Smith-Njigba's best hope was to put up top-36 fantasy numbers.
What I Think: No matter what you think of outgoing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, it's evident he and Smith-Njigba did not see eye to eye. The excitement JSN has for new OC Ryan Grubb is palpable, and the second-year pro was arguably the team's most consistent playmaker this summer. Lockett remains but has taken a backseat and seems at peace with transitioning to the No. 3 position. Metcalf is still dynamic, but he's always been a more limited route runner versus other receivers in his tier, and Smith-Njigba runs the full route tree to perfection.
Ladd McConkey, LA Chargers
Ladd McConkey (ADP: WR42) isn't going to be a standout.
What I Thought: The Chargers needed playmakers, yet let Mike Williams and Keenan Allen go in the offseason. Quentin Johnston has been an abject failure, and the only other competitors for the No. 1 receiver job are DJ Chark and Joshua Palmer. McConkey should immediately step into the top target role provided he looked the part in camp.
What I Think: He didn't look the part in camp. That's not to say he was bad this summer, but the camp reports didn't make a case that McConkey was putting the other receivers on notice in the way we heard about Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, and Rome Odunze. The Chargers offense looks suspect, on the whole, and McConkey may yet be the top target, but as our deep dive shows, there's no room in a Greg Roman offense for more than one quality fantasy receiver.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota
Jordan Addison's (ADP: WR43) low ADP is warranted.
What I Thought: Jordan Addison finished WR18 last year yet wasn't being drafted as a top-40 receiver this season. While Kirk Cousins' departure meant big changes, head coach Kevin O'Connell would be creative enough to keep the train rolling with rookie J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold.
What I Think: McCarthy is out for the year after surgery to repair his meniscus, leaving Darnold as the make-or-break option. Not having one to step in for the other greatly increases the chances of the Vikings' offense just falling apart. Also, Addison has gotten into some legal trouble, and we can't rule out league discipline.
Jameson Williams, Detroit
Jameson Williams (ADP: WR46) could be the best value on the board.
What I Thought: Williams finished WR146 and WR76 in his first two seasons. The Lions are in a Super Bowl window and wouldn't bet on a breakout from Williams. They would add viable No. 2 options in free agency or the draft.
What I Think: That didn't happen, obviously. The front office and coaches have resolutely backed Williams as the No. 2 all offseason and preseason, and he's done his part to look ready for the responsibility. It's easy to forget Williams was the 12th overall selection in the 2022 draft, and if he's finally focused and mature, the sky is the limit, yet his ADP reflects considerable doubt.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville
Brian Thomas Jr. (ADP: WR47) warrants more excitement.
What I Thought: Brian Thomas was arguably the best receiver in the rookie class beyond the slam dunk top three of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. But his college tape was less well-rounded than some of his peers, and he was drafted by a team that already has Christian Kirk and Evan Engram and added Gabriel Davis in free agency.
What I Think: The other targets remain risky, but Thomas answered the call with a blistering summer. We may be getting ahead of ourselves to project him higher than Kirk, but it feels safe to view him as the Jaguars' No. 2 target, which means he should demolish his WR47 ADP.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo
Khalil Shakir (ADP: WR52) is the Bills receiver to target.
What I Thought: The Bills drafted Keon Coleman and signed Curtis Samuel, signaling an organizational belief that Josh Allen needed new top targets versus building from within.
What I Think: A deep dive into Josh Allen illustrated that one of the receivers has to push for top-24 numbers, at a minimum. Curtis Samuel has been in the league long enough to know he's not up to that kind of role, leaving rookie Coleman or Shakir, the young incumbent. This summer didn't give us all the answers, but Shakir was objectively the most impressive of the trio and already has a rapport with Allen. At an ADP of WR52, you're taking no risk for a massive potential payoff.
Jahan Dotson, Philadlphia
Jahan Dotson (ADP: WR64) brings valuable depth to Philadelphia.
What I Thought: Jahan Dotson's rookie season was more indicative of his baseline than his 2023 campaign when Eric Bienemy completed derailed an already flawed offense. Jayden Daniels' arrival would ignite the passing game enough to make both Terry McLaurin and Dotson fantasy viable.
What I Think: Dotson couldn't break out of the pack this summer, and negative vibes culminated in the Commanders sending him to the division rival Eagles. That effectively crushes Dotson's fantasy potential this year if everyone stays healthy, but he's one injury to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith away from being a focal point of an elite offense.
Ja'Lynn Polk, New England
Ja'Lynn Polk (ADP: WR68) should be the best of the bunch in New England.
What I Thought: The Patriots were undergoing a massive rebuild, and the chances of any receiver on the depth chart being viable in redraft were slim.
What I Think: Polk, one of three former University of Washington receivers making waves this summer, steadily rose up the ranks in camp and exited the summer as the team's top playmaker.
Ray-Ray McCloud, Atlanta
Ray-Ray McCloud (ADP: WR101) won the slot job in Atlanta.
What I Thought: McCloud is a career special teamer with 90 career receptions in six seasons and was mainly signed by the Falcons as a return specialist.
What I Think: McCloud was outperforming Rondale Moore early in camp, and then Moore suffered a season-ending injury. McCloud exits the preseason as the team's unquestioned No. 3 and primary slot receiver.
