Calling anyone overvalued this early in the fantasy season could be seen as a hasty decision. Training camps haven't even started, yet assertions and assumptions run rampant. However, weighing risks and rewards before making decisions in fantasy drafts is essential. After reviewing our Consensus Rankings and recent Average Draft Position data, I've identified eight players who may fall short of expectations in the 2023 season.
Ryan also looked at some undervalued players in his previous article! You can find them here.
QB Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Discussions about Watson inevitably stir up mixed emotions. Some fantasy managers will never draft him, and that's their prerogative. Ultimately, you should build your team according to your own judgment. From a pure fantasy perspective, Watson had a lackluster 2022 season, but surprisingly, this is not reflected in his almost universal top-10 ranking.
Optimism surrounding Watson stems from his age, he'll be just 28 when the season kicks off, and his performance from 2018 to 2020. During those three seasons, he finished as a top-five quarterback each year. However, while his potential is undoubtedly high, he showcased his floor last year, which fantasy managers must take into account.
In six games last season, Watson threw only seven touchdowns and had five interceptions. Moreover, he averaged a meager 183 passing yards per game and barely 30 rushing yards. He scored 20-plus fantasy points in just one of those six games. Overall, Watson ranked as QB25 in terms of points per game, and this downside should prevent him from being part of the top-10 discussion.
QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Opinions on Rodgers now that he's with the Jets are generally divided into two camps. On one side, some look back at his back-to-back MVP seasons with Nathaniel Hackett and envision a return to greatness. On the other side, people examine his performance in 2022 and immediately remove him from their list. The latter group might be onto something.
At first glance, Rodgers' QB13 finish last year may not seem terrible. However, when you analyze his points per game, he ranked as QB26. This placed him on par with Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold. Statistically, it was his worst passer rating, yards per attempt, and interception rate since his rookie season. This underwhelming showing aligns closely with what we witnessed from Tom Brady last season, and he retired afterward.
While Rodgers isn't currently being overdrafted, his potential this year could be exaggerated. If his Average Draft Position creeps up as the preseason unfolds, he becomes a player to avoid in fantasy drafts.
RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Despite nearly being kicked off the team last year, Akers is now being drafted as a top-20 running back for the 2023 season. He was practically unusable for fantasy during the first 12 weeks of last season. However, Akers finished the year with an impressive six-game hot streak, and it seems all is forgiven.
From Weeks 13 to 18, Akers emerged as the fourth-best running back in fantasy. He scored double-digit fantasy points in every game and closed the season with three consecutive 100-yard performances. There's no denying his upside as a fantasy asset, and if you can secure him as your third or fourth running back, you should go for it. However, given his current draft position, you would likely start him every week, which requires an assessment of his entire 2022 season.
During Weeks 1 to 12, Akers was ranked as RB67. He scored only one touchdown during that span and caught just two passes. In the games where Akers performed well, the Rams went 2-4 and were missing Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. It's safe to assume they aspire to be a different team in 2023, so they may not rely on Akers as heavily as they did when they had limited options. Additionally, we must consider Akers' Achilles injury, which is less than two years old. With numerous questions and red flags surrounding Akers, it's difficult to justify drafting him in the top 20.
RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
It seems fantasy managers give Dobbins a pass each season. The running back has shown glimpses of brilliance in a few games but has never finished better than RB24 in fantasy. Yet, once again, we find him ranked as a top-25 running back for the 2023 season. It seems we're content with drafting Dobbins at his ceiling time and time again.
The frustrating part is that Dobbins' ceiling isn't even that impressive. In his 23 appearances, he has only scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 games, nine of which were in 2020. While his career average of 5.8 yards per carry is remarkable, he must prove durable enough to handle a significant workload for that to truly matter.
Considering the risk of Dobbins missing playing time and the 50% chance that he won't even reach 10 fantasy points in a game, his current draft capital is simply too costly. At this stage of the draft, there are safer options available or, at the very least, players with greater weekly upside.
WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
We highlighted concerns about the Cleveland passing game when discussing Deshaun Watson earlier. These concerns also affect Cooper's ranking as a top-20 wide receiver. Despite the passing game struggles last year, Cooper managed to finish as a top-10 wide receiver. He recorded career-highs with 132 targets, nine touchdowns, and 1,160 receiving yards. However, duplicating that career year will be a challenge.
The Browns threw the ball 540 times last year, targeting Cooper on roughly 24% of their passing plays. Over the past two offseasons, the team has made a concerted effort to improve their wide receiver corps. They traded for former second-round pick Elijah Moore and drafted Cedric Tillman in the third round of this year's draft. They also added David Bell in the third round last year. These efforts suggest they will involve the younger players more in the upcoming season, likely lowering Cooper's target share.
Another red flag for Cooper is his performance with Deshaun Watson. From Weeks 1 to 12, Cooper was the WR8, averaging nearly eight targets per game with Jacoby Brissett. However, once Watson took over, Cooper's numbers dropped to around six targets per game, and he finished as the WR27 over the final six games. If this is the volume and performance we can expect from Cooper in 2023, it's unlikely he'll surpass 110 targets or come close to his 2022 fantasy finish.
Instead of drafting Cooper, read Jeff Bell's latest on why you should take DJ Moore!
WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
It's surprising to see Samuel ranked and drafted as a top-20 wide receiver after taking such a step backward last season. Expectations were high heading into 2022. He was electric in 2021, scoring 14 total touchdowns and recording 136 touches. He finished that season as the third-best wide receiver in fantasy. Unfortunately, touchdowns were harder to come by for Samuel last year.
While he averaged around eight touches per game, he only scored five touchdowns. He also missed four games and finished as the WR37 in fantasy. On a per-game basis, his points per game ranked him behind his teammate Brandon Aiyuk, who finished as WR15. Then, the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey, and to put it bluntly, McCaffrey did what Samuel did in 2021, only better.
The two players were on the field together for seven games last year, during which Samuel averaged just seven touches and 11 fantasy points per game. He was the WR40 on a per-game basis in those seven games. With Aiyuk, McCaffrey, and George Kittle in the mix and potential quarterback issues, it's hard to envision Samuel receiving the necessary volume and scoring opportunities to return to his previous glory.
TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
There's little debate that Andrews is one of the top fantasy tight ends. However, the question lies in his value compared to his draft cost. After an outstanding 2021 season where Andrews finished as the top tight end in fantasy, he came crashing back to earth last year.
While he still finished as the fourth-best tight end, he scored 111 fewer fantasy points than his 2021 season and trailed Travis Kelce by a whopping 126 points. He was only 50 points ahead of the TE12. Such a performance places Andrews much closer to the category of mid-round traps than an elite player worthy of an early-round pick.
The critical factor is the cost you pay to acquire Andrews. If you can grab him in the fifth round or later, the risk of him being an average performer is mitigated. Essentially, you're buying him at his floor. However, drafting him in the second or third round would value him based on a ceiling he has only reached once. If he repeats his 2022 performance, he would be considered a bust at that price, regardless of his end-of-season positional ranking.
TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
While I'm singling out Goedert, my criticism extends to all tight ends drafted in the middle rounds. If you're not willing to invest heavily in Travis Kelce, your goal should be to find a potential top-five tight end at a low cost. Unfortunately, Goedert fails to meet either criterion.
Goedert's best finish to date was the eighth-best fantasy tight end, which occurred back in 2021. However, he still trailed the leader that season by 135 points. He is safe, consistent, and BORING. Last year, he only had one game with 20 or more fantasy points, a tally that matches Jordan Akins, Shane Zylstra, and Mo Alie-Cox. In comparison, Travis Kelce had seven such games.
If you're destined to lose to Kelce, Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, and a few other tight ends every week, why spend a sixth-round pick on someone who can't compete with them? Instead, draft another wide receiver or running back and target your tight end later in the draft.
In the worst-case scenario, you can stream the position and potentially score big weeks from unexpected players. In the best-case scenario, you might find the next breakout tight end, much like Evan Engram or Dalton Schultz in previous seasons.
You can find more articles from Ryan Weisse here.