Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion, going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it's not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Your gut may not be agreeing with the decision, but it's necessary because a wide range of outcomes is possible during a single football game. The comparison for being contrarian this year in a startup draft would be drafting Jameson Williams or Jonathan Taylor. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
- Do mix in one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
- Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Contrarian Quarterbacks
The Jets are one of the most talented defenses in the NFL, but things changed since the Aaron Rodgers injury. Dak Prescott produced a 112.2 QB passer rating on 38 passing attempts against the Jets last week. Mac Jones leads the entire NFL in pass attempts, and he's 11th in completion percentage. The Patriots focus on a short passing game to create manageable down-and-distance situations to avoid negative plays. If Jones continues his high passing volume, he could produce a sneaky DFS play.
The Chicago Bears have been the focus of social media this week for many reasons. One of which centered around Justin Fields describing that he's thinking too much on the field and this week he's going to play more freely. Fields averaged 95 rushing yards per game over his last 10 games of the 2022 season. He also produced a 98 QB passer rating from week 7-16 in 2022. If that version of Fields is playing on Sunday, it would be a huge DFS boost to your lineup.
The 2022 season wasn't a mirage for Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions because they've continued their success in 2023 with a 109 QB passer rating despite playing two playoff teams from last year. Goff was dealing last week with 323 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. This week, he faces his easiest defensive opponent of the season and plays at home.
The Dallas Cowboys have leaned heavily on their defense thus far, but they unfortunately just lost Trevon Diggs to an injury. This week, Dak Prescott faces a vulnerable Arizona defense, which has been more susceptible to the pass than the run this season while they've faced mediocre offenses in the Giants and the Commanders. The Cowboys are on a different tier of a passing game, which will receive a boost this week with Brandin Cooks recovered from his injury. The stars are aligning for a good Prescott week.
Contrarian Running Backs
Last week, Tony Jones Jr. only averaged 2.83 YPC but scored two touchdowns against the Panthers. The good news is the Panthers run defense is head and shoulders better than the Packers run defense, who allowed 211 rushing yards to Atlanta last week. Alvin Kamara is serving a suspension, Jamaal Williams is expected to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and rookie Kendre Miller is returning this week from a hamstring injury. Across the NFL, we've seen rookie RBs brought along slowly into NFL action. I would expect the Saints to follow the same path this week, with Miller coming off of an injury as well. This leaves Jones as the last man standing against an opponent who has been vulnerable against the run for years.
Chuba Hubbard owns the 3rd best PFF rushing grade in the entire NFL, while Miles Sanders is ranked 46th and averaging -0.96 rushing yards per carry below expectation. Sanders has practiced in a limited fashion this week while dealing with a pectoral injury. The Panthers play a Seahawks defense, which has allowed four touchdowns to running backs through two games this season. Hubbard is already seeing 36% of the offensive snaps this season; he's outplayed Sanders this season, and he's healthier. The path for Hubbard to produce well in Week 3 is there for the taking.
The Jets decided to lean on the passing game with Zach Wilson last week, and the outcome was many turnovers. It's reasonable to expect a change in philosophy with another good defensive opponent in New England on the other sideline this week. According to rushing yards per carry-over expectation, Dalvin Cook is the second-worst RB in the NFL. Cook is also 47th in PFF's rushing grade ranking this season. Breece Hall is the most talented runner on the Jets, as he revealed in his 127-yard performance in week one. The Jets coaches pointed toward the low amount of offensive plays and game script as reasons for not getting Hall the football more often. Breece voiced some frustration after the game as well. The Jets and Hall can reduce frustrations and pressure on Wilson if they run the football more against New England.
Is this going to be the Jahmyr Gibbs breakout game? This season, Gibbs only has seven rush attempts in each game. However, David Montgomery has averaged 18 rushing attempts per game. Montgomery is going to miss this contest due to an injury, and Craig Reynolds is going to replace him. Reynolds has been on the Lions roster for three seasons and has a career yards per carry of 4.2. If Reynolds takes over the Montgomery role and it remains the same, then he'll be a steal in DFS this week.
The game script is likely going to be negative for Chicago this week as they play the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, which directly benefits pass-catching and pass-blocking RBs. Roschon Johnson is the best in both of those areas for the Bears, and he owns PFF's 16th-best rushing grade. Last week, Johnson took over the backup duties from D'Onta Foreman, and he rewarded Chicago with a 29-yard run. It seems inevitable that Johnson will be the starter, and it could happen any week in Chicago.
Contrarian Wide Receivers
Photos provided by Imagn Images