Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion, going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it's not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
CONTRARIAN QUARTERBACKS
The Cardinals' pass defense ranks dead last in the NFL. Arizona has more incentive to lose to improve their draft pick than to win and watch the pick move down a few more positions. Meanwhile, Seattle needs to win and get some help to make the playoffs. Geno Smith threw two TD passes on only 24 pass attempts in the first matchup against Arizona. However, the Cardinals have played better offensively since Kyler Murray has returned, which should create a higher-scoring game and more opportunities for Smith to throw.
The Rams will be resting defensive starters Aaron Donald and Ernest Jones for week 18 with a playoff spot locked up. They're also resting several key offensive starters as well, which should limit the Rams' time of possession on offense. The Rams defense is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Sam Darnold gets the start at QB, and he has lots of incentive to play well with his upcoming free agency. Darnold gets to play a soft defense at home in an advantageous offense.
Derek Carr has thrown multiple TD passes in four consecutive games. This week, Carr and the Saints are fighting to make the playoffs with a win and some help in other games. The Falcons are also fighting for a chance to make the playoffs, which should make this an intense atmosphere. Atlanta is allowing the 11th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and Justin Fields had one of his better games of the season last week against them. Earlier in the season, Carr threw for over 300 yards against Atlanta but didn't contribute to any TDs. This time, he'll be playing at home against Atlanta, and he's been playing well.
If Green Bay wins, they're in the playoffs. If they lose, they need help to make the playoffs. Jordan Love and the Packers have a lot to play for on Sunday. Love has thrown for 16 TDs in the last eight games. Meanwhile, the Chicago defense has only allowed one offense to score more than 20 points in the last seven games. Chicago has allowed the least rushing yards in the NFL, so Green Bay will need to pass if they win. PFF's best CB in the NFL, Chicago's Jaylon Johnson, hasn't practiced this week due to a shoulder injury. His absence would greatly help the Packers' passing attack. Green Bay could also see the return of Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave, as they've practiced in a limited capacity this week. Check the inactive list prior to the game for both teams to see if this is an enhanced DFS play.
CONTRARIAN RUNNING BACKS
If Tampa Bay wins this game, they'll be in the playoffs. They'll be playing the Panthers, but they have one of the better pass defenses in the NFL. However, Carolina is the 22nd-best run defense. This will encourage them to give Rachaad White more touches in both the run and pass game. Last week, White only had 11 carries, which was his lowest total since week 11. He had 20 or more carries in every game from weeks 13-16. White has also caught multiple passes in every game he's played this season. Touches are huge for DFS production and White is the bellcow in this offense. Look for Tampa's offense to lean on White to lock up the postseason birth.
The high-ankle sprain limited Khalil Herbert for 10 weeks. But he's rushed for over 110 yards in each of the last two games while averaging over 6.2 yards per carry, which included a great performance against the second-best run defense in the NFL last week. The Green Bay Packers on Sunday field the 23rd-best run defense in the NFL, and they'll be missing at least one defensive starter with several others assigned as questionable to play. Chicago's game plan should include a consistent effort to run the football, giving Herbert lots of touches and the potential to score a TD. Monitor the inactives list prior to using Herbert because didn't practice on Friday with an injury labeled as back/personal.
Ezekiel Elliott doesn't have the speed he possessed a few years ago, but he's dependable. New England has counted on Elliott by giving him 15 or more touches in five straight games. Rhamondre Stevenson is on injured reserve, so Elliott is fighting for touches with only Kevin Harris and JaMycal Hasty. They'll end the season against a Jets defense which ranks 10th best against the run but has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs. Prior to last week, Elliott had four straight games with four or more receptions. Elliott is game-script-proof and will be a cheap option with a high floor this week in DFS.
Chicago was a tough matchup for Bijan Robinson last week because they ranked seventh in the NFL against the run. Robinson still managed to gain 86 total yards on 18 touches. The Falcons have given Robinson 15 or more touches in six of their last seven games. This week, he'll play a much easier Saints defense, which ranks 15th in run defense and allows the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs. Robinson is due for some touchdown regression, and it would be clutch for it to happen in a game Atlanta must win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Travis Etienne was in an efficiency slump for the middle portion of the season. He broke out last week by running for 102 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 6.38 yards per carry. Etienne will face a vulnerable Titans run defense in week 18. The Titans allowed 100 or more team rushing yards in only five of the initial twelve games to start the season. However, they've allowed 111 or more team rushing yards in three of the last four games. Trevor Lawrence is questionable to play on Sunday, which should mean a game plan focusing on feeding Etienne in a game that Jacksonville must win to make the playoffs.
CONTRARIAN WIDE RECEIVERS