Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | JULY 24 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zamir White | RB | LV | 195.8 | 12.6 |
| 2 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | TEN | 199.9 | 11.1 |
| 3 | Leonard Fournette | RB | FA | 190.3 | 8.7 |
| 4 | Skyy Moore | WR | KC | 99.3 | 6.9 |
| 5 | Tank Bigsby | RB | JAC | 137.3 | 4.4 |
| 6 | DeVante Parker | WR | NE | 188.1 | 4.4 |
| 7 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 149.8 | 3.4 |
| 8 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 116.4 | 3.3 |
| 9 | Mecole Hardman Jr. | WR | NYJ | 204.6 | 3.3 |
| 10 | Jerick McKinnon | RB | KC | 124.1 | 3.0 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/17/2023-07/24/23***
The top ten risers this week are littered with speculation situations causing depth pieces to rise in ADP. The number one riser is Zamir White, who has been pushed up a round at the end of drafts with the fear that Josh Jacobs will miss some time to open up the season. The number two riser is Ryan Tannehill, who has been given DeAndre Hopkins as his shiny new wide receiver in Tennessee as they look to stay competitive. Leonard Fournette is the next biggest riser and still remains a free agent, but with links to New England, drafters are trying to get ahead of the signing.
Skyy Moore is next on the risers list as his ties to Patrick Mahomes II help his cause as drafters are desperate to find the top wide receiver in Kansas City, but now his cost is a top 100 pick at ADP. My personal favorite riser this week is Tank Bigsby, who is up 4.4 ADP spots this week and sits at 137.3 overall. I see him as a player that will continue to rise, and a top 100 ADP pick is not out of the question. He remains a solid buy for me right now and is my favorite player on this week's top ten risers list.
The next three wide receivers on this list are all interesting: DeVante Parker, Nico Collins, and Mecole Hardman. I see them as more of a forced rise in ADP as the wide receiver market on Underdog continues to be hammered, and I view these three names as names of players that drafters are just forcing onto teams because they have missed out on the position earlier in the draft.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
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| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | JULY 24 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Treylon Burks | WR | TEN | 80.4 | 9.6 |
| 2 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TEN | 133.8 | 6.6 |
| 3 | Kendre Miller | RB | NO | 146.4 | 6.3 |
| 4 | Pierre Strong Jr | RB | NE | 213.5 | 5.7 |
| 5 | Mac Jones | QB | NE | 208.7 | 5.4 |
| 6 | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | NYG | 203.4 | 4.0 |
| 7 | Dalvin Cook | RB | FA | 93.6 | 3.7 |
| 8 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 193.5 | 3.1 |
| 9 | Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 196.7 | 3.0 |
| 10 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | 163.8 | 3.0 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 07/17/2023-07/24/23***
The fallers list is the one I pay more attention to as it is one that I feel has both bad ADPs that are adjusting correctly to where they should be in the market, but on the other hand, I feel like it helps create ADP values as drafters might be overreacting to the news. On this list this week, I feel that the overreaction to Treylon Burks is a huge edge right now as the wide receiver position is already super thin on Underdog, so getting Burks at a falling 9.6 ADP is something I want to continue to scoop up right now. I can see him correcting back to the early 70s ADP in a couple of weeks, but before that happens, I will be a buyer of Burks.
I also like the current falling prices of Kendre Miller, Mac Jones, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love. These are all young players with already very manageable ADP prices, and now getting a discount on them to help me build out a Best Ball roster feels great.
The avoids for me on the list right now are Pierre Strong Jr and Wan'Dale Robinson, as I feel like they are players that could just sit on my roster and give me zeroes the entire season. They come with too many question marks and are players I would rather have other drafters select in the last round and prove me wrong. Chigoziem Okonkwo, Dalvin Cook, and Chase Brown are the other players that round out the fallers, and they are three I am pretty neutral on right now at cost but am always happy to mix them in if they fall a round past their current ADP.
WEEKLY NEWS AND NOTES
- WR Michael Thomas NO - Expected to be a full participant at Training Camp.
- WR Chase Claypool CHI - Was added to the PUP list and activated one day after.
- RB Kendre Miller NO - Passes physical and looks to return to practice.
- WR Rashod Bateman BAL - Placed on the PUP list.
- WR Kadarius Toney KC - Expected to miss some time during training camp as he is dealing with a knee injury.
- RB Josh Jacobs LV - Will not report for training camp.
- RB Nyheim Hines BUF - Will miss the 2023 season
- RB Javonte Williams DEN - Won't start training camp on PUP
- WR Marvin Jones Jr DET - Goes on NFI list
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo LV - Expected to be cleared for training camp.
- RB J.K. Dobbins BAL - Placed on Pup list.
- RB James Robinson NYG - Signs with the New York Giants.
- RB Melvin Gordon III BAL - Signs with the Baltimore Ravens
- WR Jordan Addison MIN - Cited for driving 140 mph
- WR Mecole Hardman Jr. NYJ - Healthy entering training camp.
- WR Denzel Mims DET - Traded to the Detroit Lions
- RB Breece Hall NYJ - Placed on the PUP list
BEST BALL INDUSTRY NEWS
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania IV in full swing. It is a $25 entry tournament that is 302,000/677,376 (44%) full currently, with 38,000 new entries this week. This year the top prize is $3 million dollars, and they also have the prize pool split into a playoff structure and a total points structure. Underdog is also currently offering a $15 entry Weekly Winners contest that you draft an 18-player roster and have a shot at new prizes each week with a top prize of $20,000. This contest is currently 27% full with 70,000/261,000 entries, with 13,000 new entries this week.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $300,000. It is currently 15,100/111,252 full, with 2,300 new entries this week. They also have a $3 entry Mini that is 29,000/74,160 full and has a top prize of $30,000. It had 3,600 new entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $10 entry Best Ball tournament for 2023. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 1,178,496 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 461,000/1,178,496 full, with nearly 47,000 new entries this week. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$2,120 in entry fees
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
