NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
Unsurprisingly, Vegas doesn't expect much drama tonight. The Chiefs are double-digit divisional favorites, even with Travis Kelce's (ankle) status up in the air. However, since the Chiefs don't cover the spread particularly often (12-13 in their last 25), Vegas only projects a so-so 47.5 points tonight. They tend to conserve energy and let teams hang around; many are expecting a 27-17 type of battle.
One way or another, most of the Showdown field will be cramming in four or five Chiefs. It's hard not to, as the Broncos are dreadful while the Chiefs are red-hot and well-rested. Still, our job tonight is to find the right players – and the low-rostered ones – from both teams.
Injury Roundup
All eyes will be on the Travis Kelce reports this evening. Kelce practiced on a limited basis this week, but he may not be needed much (if at all) against the pitiful Broncos.
For the Broncos, Javonte Williams will return to the featured back role after sitting Week 5.
Captain Consideration
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes II (CPT or FLEX)
Mahomes is the Chiefs' best player, but he's not always asked to be a fantasy dynamo. He's been efficient and methodical, yet he's only cleared 20 DraftKings points twice. Not even 41 attempts in last week's close win over the burnable Vikings could get him there. Gone are the days of 75-yard Tyreek Hill touchdowns being sprinkled into the mix. Not to mention, game flow could easily pull Mahomes from this game early.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco (CPT or FLEX)
Jerick McKinnon (FLEX only)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (FLEX only)
Pacheco, as always, makes for a great differentiation play at Captain. Much of the field will zig with Mahomes in anticipation of big air numbers. I'll be zagging with Pacheco, hoping to cash in with short touchdowns. I'll also have increasing volume on my side: he's dominated the early downs this year, claiming 67% of the running back carries. Given the Vegas expectations, any fewer than 18-20 touches – with a handful near the goal line – would be an upset
Edwards-Helaire is the clear backup to Pacheco, not even a change-of-pace type. He's seen just 15 snaps over the past 2 weeks. McKinnon is the clear preference when differentiating from Pacheco. He's the pass-down leader by a mile, and he even sees usage near the goal line.
Wide Receiver
Rashee Rice (CPT or FLEX)
Kadarius Toney (FLEX only)
Skyy Moore (FLEX only)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FLEX only)
The Chiefs receiver depth chart isn't exactly deep, but Rice has certainly climbed it. He hasn't played enough snaps to qualify, but if he had, he'd lead the league in targets per route run. DraftKings has taken notice, yet he still checks in too cheaply for Mahomes' top wideout. After all, he even comes in a hefty notch below the Broncos receivers.
Toney's production is wildly unpredictable, but he's also a bit too cheap tonight. He's given screens, jet sweeps, and other methods of creating plays. Toney quietly led Chiefs wideouts in targets in last Sunday's win.
Moore and Valdes-Scantling have all but fallen off the fantasy map. Perhaps Moore will work his way back into the slot equation at some point, but he's a pure dart throw right now. Neither of these guys is as attractive as Justin Watson or Justyn Ross (see below).
Tight End
Travis Kelce (if active - CPT or FLEX)
Noah Gray (if Kelce sits - FLEX only)
If Kelce's heavily taped ankle is right for a full run of snaps, he'll plug and play into most lineups, many as Captain. But I won't be Captaining him. There's an obvious risk here: If the Chiefs run away with this game, they'll pull Kelce out of action as quickly as possible. There's also the chance that Kelce plays an entire, competitive game but doesn't bring home Captain value. Averaging 8.2 yards per catch and just 56 a game, he's essentially T.J. Hockenson with more touchdown potential – at an $11,000 price tag ($16,500 for Captain). He's a perfectly acceptable Captain in some builds but not in my single entry.
If Kelce sits, Gray will be a cheap play but a popular one. He won't necessarily be high-upside, either. When he subbed for Kelce on Opening Night, he drew just 5 of Mahomes' 39 looks.
Under the Radar
Justin Watson (FLEX only)
Justyn Ross (FLEX only)
These two always lurk as low-cost Chiefs plays. And this week, they make more sense than Moore or Valdes-Scantling. Watson sees a consistent 20-40 snaps a week, and Mahomes loves feeding him contested balls downfield. He's made 10 catches thus far, and 5 have gone for 25+ yards. Ross had a mini-breakthrough last week; he drew just 6 of 66 snaps but was targeted on 4 of them. Ross costs just $200 and would pay off with a flick of Mahomes' wrist at the goal line.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (CPT or FLEX)
Wilson is no one's favorite DFS play right now. But we have to play a Bronco, and there's plenty of financial room to fit in Wilson. The Denver offense is scoring, at least, and Wilson has been one of the league's best first-half passers on paper.
In fact, a Captain play is intriguing for deep-GPP lineups. If the Broncos are able to force a shootout with their season (and several jobs) on the line, he'd likely post similar numbers to Mahomes – but with virtually no one Captaining him.
Running Back
Javonte Williams (FLEX only)
Jaleel McLaughlin (FLEX only)
Samaje Perine (FLEX only)
McLaughlin will return to the bench – or, at least, to a backfield committee. That said, he may be just as strong a play as Williams tonight. McLaughlin has been nothing short of dazzling as a change-of-pace rookie, posting 7.1 yards per touch (with 3 touchdowns). It's been refreshing after watching Williams plod to just 189 scoreless yards (3.9 per touch) over the first 3 weeks.
All told, it would be surprising to see McLaughlin NOT take on a minimum of 8-12 touches. They'll likely be high-impact, and there's definite potential for more.
Perine remains in the rotation, but it's fair to expect a big dip after McLaughlin's breakout.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton (FLEX only)
Jerry Jeudy (FLEX only)
Marvin Mims Jr. (FLEX only)
It would be nice to see a go-to weapon here, one to run back with a Chiefs stack, but this group is wildly touchdown-dependent. Sutton is the target leader, but none of these guys have received consistent volume. Sutton, for example, has drawn 5, 7, 11, 5, and 3 looks. He definitely makes more sense than Jeudy, who costs more but has yet to draw more than seven thus far. Overall, both have struggled to get open and disappointed on the year.
Mims makes for an intriguing play at roughly half Jeudy's cost. He's no volume guy, but his 20.5 aDOT means he can pay Showdown dividends on just a catch or two.
Tight End
Adam Trautman (FLEX only)
Trautman caught four balls and a touchdown last week, but it made for his first catch since Opening Day – even with Greg Dulcich on the shelf. He's almost entirely a blocker now and lacks the profile of a $2,800 play. Plug in Watson instead, at $600 less.
Under the Radar
Brandon Johnson (FLEX only)
Johnson has only caught eight passes on the year, but three have gone for touchdowns.
Kickers & Defenses
Obviously, only one defense is in play here, and it makes for a strong one. Russell Wilson has been sacked at the league's 10th-highest rate, while the Chiefs pressure quarterbacks at the 3rd-highest. They're priced up for a reason and will be wildly popular.
Harrison Butker, though, looks like a shaky play. The Chiefs have little trouble converting red-zone drives into touchdowns. A 38-14 type of game wouldn't produce much meat for either kicker.