Thursday Showdown Week 14

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

It's hard to overstate just how moribund an offensive show we're (likely) in for. It's Mitchell Trubisky vs. Bailey Zappe, heading up the NFL's 28th and 32nd scoring offenses, respectively. They're 26th and 28th in yards per play, as well as 24th and 30th in offensive EPA. Both defenses are stout, and neither quarterback looks able to generate more than one or two scoring drives. Unsurprisingly, Vegas projects a 30-point game that will leave most us of covering our eyes. The Steelers are the nominal favorites, but it feels much shakier than any other 7-5 vs. 2-10 matchup I can recall.

This is the type of Showdown slate that can be swung by a single long touchdown. If you can find a Patriot capable of providing it, keep it to yourself and beat the field.

Injury Roundup

The Steelers will be without quarterback Kenny Pickett, pushing veteran Mitchell Trubisky back into action. More impactfully, lead back Najee Harris looks to be on the wrong side of questionable with a knee injury. That means big things for Jaylen Warren's projections.

The Patriots also lack their lead runner, as Rhamondre Stevenson could be shut down with a high ankle sprain; he certainly won't play tonight. Slot receiver Demario Douglas, still in the concussion protocol, has also been ruled out.

Captain Consideration

• Jaylen Warren (regardless of Harris' status)
• Ezekiel Elliott
• George Pickens
• Najee Harris (if active)
• Pat Freiermuth

New England Patriots

Quarterback

Bailey Zappe (FLEX)

Zappe seems to be starting only to punish Mac Jones. That's not to make excuses for Jones, who clearly lacks NFL starting tools at the moment. But Zappe has actually produced less air yardage than Jones, Zach Wilson, P.J. Walker, and a handful of others you'd only play in the deepest of GPPs. There's almost no upside in play here.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott (CPT or FLEX)
Ty Montgomery II (FLEX)

Elliott hasn't knocked many socks off as a Patriot, producing just 3.8 yards per rush in 2023. He's not a dependable short-yardage runner, either. Still, he makes just enough Captain sense tonight as the sure-to-be offensive centerpiece. To keep the game out of Zappe's hands, the team will almost certainly set a touch goal for Elliott and ride him relentlessly. Just 18 carries could move the needle in what could well be a 13-9 slog.

Montgomery has theoretical appeal as the third-down change-up back, but this is not the James White Era. He's taken just 57 offensive snaps over the past 2 calendar years.

Wide Receiver

DeVante Parker (FLEX)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (FLEX)
Tyquan Thornton (FLEX)

The closest thing to upside here is Parker, who has produced 7 catches for 106 yards over the past two weeks. He's drawn a 34% target share over a small sample with Zappe; perhaps he has another potent, 4-catch outing in the tank.

And still, even he and Smith-Schuster, the other every-down veteran, are questionable with nagging injuries. Both look likely to suit up, but it's devastating to imagine an arsenal this thin being limited or on a pitch count. Play at your own risk; the floor is below 5.0 DK points.

The same goes for Thornton, who's finally seeing big opportunity (81 snaps over the past two weeks) and doing nothing of note with it (2 catches, 42 yards). Thornton is touted as a speedster who can win outside, but there's no deep element to this offense anyway.

Tight End

Hunter Henry (FLEX)

With Zappe and Jones floundering at quarterback, Henry remains expensive window dressing and little more. Over the past eight games, with the Patriots barely able to throw beyond the line, Henry has totaled all of 15 receptions, 137 yards, and a single touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback

Mitch Trubisky (FLEX)

In general, there's little distinction between Trubisky (5.96 net yards per throw as a Steeler) and Pickett (5.96 himself) taking snaps for the Steelers. Neither can navigate the ball downfield nor generate more than one or two scoring drives. That said, as a solid home favorite, Trubisky is in position to throw safe and underneath for most of the night. The Captain hope is that the Steelers wind up near the goal line often enough for him to throw a few short touchdown flips.

But the Patriots' stifling defense has allowed all of two touchdowns over their last three games, and they held Justin Herbert out of the end zone last week. This is not the offense I expect to buck that trend. As the favorite, Trubisky will likely have a higher roster rate than usual, and he simply doesn't deserve it.

Running Back

Jaylen Warren (CPT or FLEX)
Najee Harris (CPT or FLEX – if active)

If Harris sits, as expected, then Warren will land on virtually every roster. There just aren't many healthy players capable of topping 10.0 DK points tonight. Therefore, the only ones not playing Warren will be doing so intentionally. It's easy to see why: he'll dominate the backfield, and he'll be the second-best skill-position player on the field tonight (see wide receivers, below).

Simply put, there isn't a more sensible Captain play on the slate. Warren brings volume, talent, and scoring opportunity to the table. In a projected slugfest like this one, you hope for one or two of those factors; Warren is the trifecta. He's sizzled over five games with more opportunity, averaging 97 yards from scrimmage at 7.0 per touch.

Just don't lose sight of the fact that, even if he posts a big line, Warren likely won't win you any GPP contests on his own. Just about every boat will rise with that tide.

It must be noted that the team almost always leans more on Harris. Even over this five-game stretch, the plodder has won the touch battle in each outing. If he does manage to dress tonight, he'll force at least an even split of snaps. And if he plays without limitations, we can likely pencil in 15+ touches at a much lower roster rate than Warren.

Wide Receiver

George Pickens (CPT or FLEX)
Diontae Johnson (CPT or FLEX)

Pickens is the most talented and dynamic receiver on the field on most weeks, none more so than this one. Already one of the game's premier downfield threats, Pickens is a weekly threat to produce even without good quarterbacking. Few can flip a frustrating two-catch first half into a 5-catch, 90-yard day as easily. He slumped badly at midseason but rebounded over the past two weeks (a combined 7 catches, 144 yards).

As discussed above, when the talent gap between the receiving options in a game is this wide, the dynamic one always makes sense as Captain. Pickens can break a 9-3 game wide open just by winning on two or three downfield routes. If Trubisky can get the ball downfield at all, Pickens should be the beneficiary nearly every time.

Johnson is locked in as a short-area PPR play, and he loses lots of luster in an offense that only completes 62% of its throws. Johnson did catch a touchdown last week, his third over his last 26 games in action. Never much of a red-zone threat, he's drawn just 8 looks from inside the 10 over that span.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth (CPT or FLEX)

Freiermuth crashed back to Earth in Week 13 with just 3 for 29, but context matters. The air attack was hindered by rain, and a 19% target share is always notable; Freiermuth also drew a red zone target against the Cardinals. (His weak showing served as yet another example as to why the “Fantasy Points vs. TE” column can be misleading on its own.)

The week before, Freiermuth repeatedly gashed Cincinnati up the seams en route to 9 for 120. He's used as a skeleton key in this flawed passing game, working downfield at times but often at the line or just beyond the chains. He's a backup quarterback's dream, particularly one like Trubisky, who struggles mightily to throw over the top.

Under the Radar

Allen Robinson II (FLEX)

Robinson looks cooked as a starting receiver or even a usable fantasy player at this point. But he continues to run routes (25 per game), and he does boast a history with Trubisky. The pair hooked up 185 times for 12 touchdowns in Chicago, and they've spent most of 2023 together with the twos. There's a real chance Robinson catches six passes tonight.

Kickers and Defenses

All of these are squarely in play for what should be a defensive battle that's often hard to watch. Chris Boswell, in particular, looks interesting as one of the league's most accurate kickers. And these two teams are tied for sixth league-wide at forcing field goals in the red zone.

You'll want to consider defenses when turnovers are in the forecast, and that's why the Steelers make more sense. They're tied for fifth with 20 takeaways, while the stifling Patriots have forced just 11. More importantly, the favored Steelers should find themselves in better position to hide their quarterback. Zappe (and perhaps Jones, eventually) will likely be much more exposed to sacks and shaky throws.