Super Bowl Showdown

Game Strategy

• Over/Under: 47.5
• Spread: San Francisco -1.5
• San Francisco Implied Team Total: 24.5
• Kansas City Implied Team Total: 23.0

This is a week where there are lot of options on the Kansas City side that could emerge as value plays, while on the San Francisco side of the ball they're packed with stars, but have less options when it comes to value plays. Trying to find the obscure player who is inevitably going to score a touchdown will be the key to a successful week this week. Even taking a chance at the captain position with some of the cheap options in order to spend up with as many stars as possible is a viable strategy this week.

Key Injuries to Monitor

• Joe Thuney- Out with a pectoral injury. This is a massive blow to the Chiefs' rushing attack as Thuney is an All-Pro guard in 2023.
• Jerick McKinnon – Questionable with a groin injury, but seems unlikely to play. If he is active, he is minimum price and could be a cheap way to build out a star and scrubs roster this week.

Captain Consideration:

1. Jerick McKinnon (if Active)
2. Travis Kelce
3. Deebo Samuel
4. Christian McCaffrey
5. Isiah Pacheco
6. Brandon Aiyuk
7. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
8. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes II- Flex

For Mahomes, he’s going to be one of the most popular players on this slate as quarterbacks typically are, but playing him at captain this week could be a mistake. Since the team came back from their game in Germany, Patrick Mahomes II has thrown for just 300 yards once in the 11 games that the team has played, while averaging just 240 passing yards per game. Making this more difficult to play him at the captain is that 68% of his yards throughout this playoffs have gone to either Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice. For Mahomes to pay off as a captain, he almost certainly will need a rushing touchdown in a low-scoring game, which is possible, but for how highly rostered he is going to be and how expensive he is, it’s likely to just play him in the flex.

Isiah Pacheco- Captain/Flex

Isiah Pacheco has been a workhorse throughout the playoffs as he is averaging 21 carries per game and has scored a touchdown in every game thus far throughout the playoffs. The matchup is a difficult one taking on San Francisco, but the 49ers have been a different team in the playoffs against the run compared to the regular season. Throughout the playoffs, the 49ers are allowing 131 rushing yards and 28.6 DraftKings points per game, compared to just 65 rushing yards per game and 18.6 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs. So the question is what version of the 49ers do we get this week, if they are unable to make adjustments to the recent playoff trend, then Pacheco is going to be a guy that you’re going to want to have some exposure to this week.

Travis Kelce- Captain/Flex

Based on recent production, Travis Kelce is going to be a target for a lot of people both as a captain and in the flex. Kelce has scored three touchdowns over the last two weeks and is averaging 7.7 receptions for 87.3 yards in the three playoff games as he has significantly improved his performance compared to a poor regular season. The price is a little bit higher than what you’d like to see especially when compared to guys like Deebo or Aiyuk who could save you some salary, but the touchdown upside for Kelce is likely higher and if you believe the Chiefs win this week, he’s a guy to target.

Rashee Rice- Fade

Rashee Rice is going to be one of the most popular players on this slate as his $7,600 salary is very affordable. Rice has been the only consistent wide receiver for the Chiefs as we previously mentioned Rice and Travis Kelce currently account for 68% of the passing yards from Patrick Mahomes II throughout this playoffs. However, for Rice, he has not paid off the last two weeks failing to top 50 yards against two very good pass defenses in Buffalo and Baltimore. This week, the rookie is going to face off against another very difficult matchup as he will line up against All-Pro Charvarius Ward. You’re likely going to need to choose between Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice based on roster percentages as well as just overall lineup construction to ensure your lineup has enough upside to win. The way to beat the 49ers is through the deep throw as they play a lot of zone defense and have issues at the safety position, which is why it could lead more to a Marquez Valdes-Scantling game this week. Rice is by no means a bad play based on the price, so if you find him fitting into your lineup as a last player, that's fine, but he's not someone you should outright target based on the risk and the high roster percentage.

Jerick McKinnon- Captain/Flex (if active)

The only way that the Chiefs make McKinnon active is if they have a plan to use him in this game, otherwise it would not make sense for them to activate him and ultimately have to make a subsequent roster move as well as give up a spot on the 53-man roster this week. If he’s active, at $200, any involvement would quickly pay off value and based on his history of red zone production could be a guy who if he even sees one or two opportunities in the red zone, immediately becomes a captain viable play this week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling- Captain Only

For Valdes-Scantling, 23% of his receptions are 30 yards or longer this season. At a $3,000 base price, he’s likely going to be somewhat popular as people are going to look at the upside and see a scenario where he has a big game. However, because Valdes-Scantling is so dependent on the big play, his results are largely binary in that he will either have a tremendous game where that 30-yard reception goes for a touchdown or he fails completely and at that point, you don’t want him as your flex anyway as we need as close to a perfect lineup as possible. The goal is not to min-cash, but instead to put yourself in a position to have a near-optimal lineup. If Valdes-Scantling scores a 30-yard touchdown that’s 3.3x on his captain salary which is the equivalent of Christian McCaffrey needing 59.4 points. It’s much more complicated than that as you’ll need to maximize the savings that you get by going with a $4,500 captain for it to pay off.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire- Captain Only (if McKinnon is inactive)

If you’re looking for a long shot, taking Clyde Edwards-Helaire is as long as they get. The only way that he reaches the opportunity for value is if there is an injury to Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco has been injured twice this season including an injury to a shoulder that has given him problems dating back to an offseason. Edwards-Helaire is likely going to be way too popular as a flex play at around 10-15% based on his touchdown prop odds from Vegas along with low salary, but he’s projected to be less than 1% rostered as the captain, and if there is around a 10% chance that Pacheco gets injured, it should create decent value to take him as the captain this week.

Kansas City Defense- Flex

The Chiefs were second in the NFL in sacks this season averaging 3.3 sacks on the year and Brock Purdy has been less than perfect so far this postseason as he threw at least two easy interceptions that were dropped against Green Bay, while he did throw an interception against Detroit and threw at least one other pass that should have been intercepted. The pressure from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is one that the team is going to need to look at as a target this week.

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy- Flex

Brock Purdy, like most quarterbacks, are always playable every week. However, similar to Mahomes, playing him at the captain position likely is not the right move this week. The issue is that the Chiefs have one of the best pass defenses and pass rushes in the NFL, so expecting Purdy to have a massive performance when he did not look great against either Detroit or Green Bay is just unrealistic. There are enough playmakers on San Francisco to still have that upside as throughout the playoffs we’ve seen Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle all have big days.

Christian McCaffrey- Captain/Flex

The only question about McCaffrey this week is the price. At $18,000 as a captain, he’s in play, but just realize you’re going to need to go towards the bottom of the barrel for at least two players to build out your lineup. Also, if you’re playing McCaffrey, you’re likely going to need to choose one of Patrick Mahomes II or Brock Purdy as it’ll be very difficult to fit in both players without sacrificing significant upside. He’s likely going to be the most popular captain on this slate, as people typically love to play the player projected for the most points to gain that 1.5x bonus, and while we can’t fault them for doing that, the opportunity cost is high this week as you’ll likely need multiple touchdowns for that strategy to pay off.

Deebo Samuel – Captain/Flex

This game has Deebo Samuel written all over it. Kansas City’s pass defense is amongst the league’s best, which is why we could see a game similar to last week against Detroit where the 49ers tried to get the ball out quickly to Deebo and use him as a possession receiver. Also, expect him to line up all over the field to try to create a mismatch that is favorable to take a deep shot similar to what we saw Baltimore do with Zay Flowers last week.

Brandon Aiyuk – Captain or low-end Flex

For Brandon Aiyuk, he’s a tricky player as his price at $8,800 is the sixth-highest on the slate this week. For Aiyuk, it has been a season of boom or bust as he has seven games of 100+ yards this season, but is averaging just 49 yards per game in the other 11 games that he has played this year. The matchup is a tough one as Aiyuk will likely see a lot of L’Jarius Sneed who has been a consistent cornerback this year on the outside. The Chiefs are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season as only three wide receivers all season have topped 100 yards as Zay Flowers, Christian Kirk, and Joshua Palmer were able to do it.

George Kittle- Fade

While George Kittle is more than capable of having a big game against just about any team he faces, he’s been a different player with Deebo Samuel active. Kittle has five or fewer targets in four of his last five games with Deebo Samuel in the lineup, and with Kansas City’s blitz-heavy scheme, we will likely see Kittle staying in to block more than he typically would. The price is not bad at $6,400 considering he’s a player who has three 100+ yard games and a separate three-touchdown game this season. However, his price point is going to cause him to be very popular this week, and he could be a player who underperforms this week similar to Mark Andrews who had just two receptions for 15 yards last week against Kansas City.